rd
THE 3 ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON TRANSFORMATIVE EDUCATION
AISTEEL
AND
EDUCATIONAL LEADERSHIP
Supported and Coordinated by:
Postgraduate School
State University of Medan
North Sumatera, Indonesia
Organized by:
Indexing By :
PROCEEDINGS
Emerald Garden Hotel, Medan - Indonesia
03-04 October 2018
Vol. 3, December 2018
Vol. 3, December 2018
2018
i
Proceedings of The 3
rdAnnual International Seminar on
Transformative
Education
and
Educational
Leadership
(AISTEEL 2018)
“
Education, Learning, and Leadership Innovation
”
Emerald Garden Hotel, Medan City, North Sumatera, Indonesia
October 3-4, 2018
Editorial Board
Editorial-in-Chief
Dr. Juniastel Rajagukguk, M.Si (State University of Medan, Unimed)
Deputy Editor
Dr. Saronom Silaban, M.Pd (State University of Medan, Unimed)
International Advisory Board / Scientific Committee
Prof. Dr. Kala Saravanamuthu (University of Newcastle, Australia)
Prof. Arjen EJ Wals (University of Gothenburg, Sweden)
Prof. Dr. Bornok Sinaga, M.Pd (Unimed, Indonesia)
Prof. Dr. Aytekin Isman (Sakarya University, Turkey)
Prof. Peter Charles Taylor, Ph.D., Med., B.Sc., Dip.Ed (Murdoch University, Australia)
Prof. Dr. Mukhlas Samani, Ph.D (Indonesia)
Prof. Dr. Jailani bin Md. Yunos (University Tun Hussein on Malaysia)
Prof. Dr. Nurahimah Mohd. Yusuf (UTM, Malaysia)
Assoc. Prof. Dr Pedro Isaias (University of Queensland, Australia)
Assoc. Prof. Elisabeth Taylor, Ph.D (Murdoch University, Australia)
Dr. Bambang Sumintono, M.Ed (Universiti Malaya, Malaysia)
Dr. Isma Widyaty, M.Pd (UPI, Indonesia)
Prof. Dr. Syahrul R, M.Pd (UNP, Indonesia)
Prof. Amrin Saragih, MA., Ph.D (Unimed, Indonesia)
Assoc. Prof. Ade Gafar Abdullah, M.Si (Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia)
Eng. Asep Bayu Dani Nandiyanto (Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia)
Prof. Dr. Hartono, M.Pd (Universitas Negeri Semarang)
ii
Proceedings of the 3
rdAnnual International Seminar on Transformative Education
and Educational Leadership (AISTEEL 2018)
Preface
The 3
rdAnnual International Seminar on Transformative Education and Educational Leadership
(AISTEEL 2018) was held in Emerald Garden Hotel, Medan City-Indonesia on 3-4 October 2018.
This seminar is organized by Postgraduate School, Univesitas Negeri Medan and become a routine
agenda at Postgraduate program of Unimed now.
The AISTEEL is realized this year with various presenters, lecturers, researchers and students from
universities both in and out of Indonesia participating in, the seminar with
theme “Education,
Learning and Leadership Innovation.”
The plenary speakers coming from various provinces in Indonesia have been present topics covering
multi disciplines. They have contributed many inspiring inputs on current trending educational
research topics all over the world. The expectation is that all potential lecturers and students have
shared their research findings for improving their teaching process and quality, and leadership.
The third AISTEEL presents a keynote speaker and 4 distinguised invited speakers from Australia,
Singapore, Taiwan, and Malaysia. In addition, presenters come from various Government and Private
Universities, Institutions, Academy, and Schools. Some of them are those who have sat and will sit in
the oral defence examination.
There are 326 articles submitted to committee, some of which are presented orally in parallel sessions,
and others are presented through posters. The articles have been reviewed by double blind reviewer
and 198 of them were accepted for published by Atlantis Press indexed by International Indexation.
Meanwhile 83 papers were published in online International Proceedings indexed by Google Scholar.
The Committees of AISTEEL invest great efforts in reviewing the papers submitted to the
conference and organizing the sessions to enable the participants to gain maximum benefit.
Grateful thanks to all of members of The 3rd Annual International Seminar on Transformative
Education and Educational Leadership (AISTEEL 2018) for their outstanding contributions. Thanks
also given to Universitas Negeri Medan for published this volume.
The Editors
iii
Table of Contents
Titles and Authors
page
Design of Physical Practicum Tools on Rotational Dynamics Matter with
Scientific Concept
1
Fretty Doharni Ritonga; Nurdin Bukit; Betty M.Turnip...
Analysis of the Leading Sector and Its Effect on the Economy in Pakpak Bharat
Regency
6
Dinar Melani Hutajulu; M. Nasir; Arwansyah
...Analyze the Characteristic and Factors Cause of Bullying Behaviours in Early
Childhood
12
Fadhilah Syam Nasution; Anita Yus; Aman Simaremare...
Play Finger Painting in Creative Art Model to Help Smooth Motoric
Development and Creativity of Group a in Kindergarten at Aek Loba Pekan
Village
18
Lola Wita Harahap; Sri Milfayetty; Rosmala Dewi...
Maintenance of Gayonese Kinship Terms by Gayonese Minority Migrants in
Jabodetabek
22
Desi Purnama Sari; Siti Aisyah Ginting; Berlin Sibarani...
Effect of Functional Training and TRX Suspension Training on Body
Composition member Golden Fitness and Spa
26
Rafliansyah; Nurhayati Simatupang; Albadi Sinulingga...
Interpersonal Metaphor Used in the Boss Baby Movie
29
Khairuni Syafitri; Siti Aisyah Ginting; Anni Holila Pulungan...
Speech Act in Indonesia Lawyers Club: KPK vs Novanto
32
Theresia Fransiska Sidabutar; Zainuddin; Busmin Gurning...
The Effect of Instructional Strategy and Style Ofthinking Secuential on Students
Outcome MAN Medan
36
Siti Aisyah Hanim; Tiur asih siburian; Darwin...
The Effect of Cooperative Learning Models and Self Efficacy on Student
Mathematics Learning Outcomes
39
Sabdo Puji Rahayu; Mukhtar; Keysar Panjaitan...
Ideational Grammatical Metahpor in Reading Texts for Senior High School
English Textbooks
43
Diemam Ferzhawana; Siti Aisyah Ginting; Zainuddin...
Effect of Soft Modification on Student Learning Results PAB 13 Kwala Begumit
Private Vocational School
47
Iskandar Fahmi...
Differences in Metacognitive Ability of Students Through Learning Realistic
Mathematics Education and Problem Based Learning in Pangkalan Susu Senior
High School
51
Chairi Mutia Lubis; Waminton Rajagukguk; Kms.M.Amin Fauzi...
Development of Interactive Learning Media Projection of Working Drawing on
Students of Class X TKR in SMK Markus 2 Medan
56
Irwan Panggabean; R. Mursid; Samsidar Tanjung...
Metaphor of Modality in Donald Trump’s Speech in
United Nation General Assembly 2017
60
Nursyah Handaya; Siti Aisyah Ginting...
Traditional Sport Of Silek Tuo In Minangkabau Community (a study of Silek tuo
iv
Prima Nanda; Sabaruddin Yunis; Agung Sunarn...
Improved Student’s Generic Science Skills With The Application of Cooperative
Learning Models Based on Batak Culture
66
Rika Sari Indah Harahap; Derlina; Rahmatsyah; Sahyar; Bornok...
Management Development Athletes of Shorinji Kempo North Sumatra Region
71
Arti Kurniaty Bangun...
Efforts to Improve Learning Results Free Basketball Shot (Free Throw) Through
The Application of Teaching Style Inclusion
75
Bob Rahmat Manalu... ...
Development of Egosan Engineering Extension Models with Straight Sticking in
Pencak Silat
77
William Filipus; Amir Supriadi; Tarsyad Nugraha...
The Development of Interactive Learning Media of Athletic on Physical
Education in SMP Negeri 15 Medan
81
Akhmad Khaidir; Budi Valianto; Tarsyad Nugraha...
The Effect of Learning Model and Self-Reliance Learning toward Science
Learning Outcomes
84
Rohima; Mukhtar; Samsidar Tanjung...
The Effect of Learning Method and Kinesthetic Perception on The Learning
Outcomes of Lay Up Basketball
88
Saiful Adrian; N
urhayati Simatupang; Suprayitno………....
Analysis Of Physical Education Teacher Management Skills In State Elementary
School Sub-District Medan Tembung
91
Syahrul Effendi Nasution; Amir Supriadi; Albadi Sinulingga...
Innovation Of The Speed Model Using Running With The Ball Techniques In
Football
95
Julio Roberto; Amir Supriadi; Novita... ...
The Development of Penetration Drill Training Technique of Wrestling Sport
99
Ihsan Idris Silalahi; Jan Bobby Nesra Barus...
Speech Function of Anies Baswedan’s
Speech in Approval Ceremony as the
Governor of Jakarta in the Period of 2017-2022
102
Ahmad Rifa’i Ritonga; Sumarsih
... ...
Development of Web-Based Learning Media to Enhance Writing Capability of
Biography Text of Student Class X SMA
105
Rencus B. Sinabariba, Tiur Asi Siburian, Mutsyuhito Solin...
Implementing the Teaching Supervision by Principals in Improving the
Performance of Teachers in Aceh Besar
109
Said Ashlan... ... ...
Female Principal Leadership
115
Hendro Widodo; Hengkang Bara Saputra... ...
The Ways of Rohingya Teenagers in Medan Realized Their Language Attitude
120
I Wayan Dirgayasa; Rahmat Husein; Lonni NurIffah Nasution...
Metaphor in Umpasa of Saurmatua Toba Batak Ceremony
124
Heppy Yersin Digita Purba; Rahmad Husein; Anni Holila Pulungan...
The Influence of Part Method, Whole Method and Determination Exercise
Methods on Improving Exercise in the Sports Branch of Pencak Silat Single Art
Category of College Students SPDKK (Art of Kencana Kwitang Self Defense)
Deli Serdang Year 2018/2019
127
Mawar Sari... ... ...
v
Philosophy
of Rakut Sitelu
Desi Haryati Nianggolan...
Evaluation of Implementation of Sustainable Professional Development (PKB)
for Junior High School Physical Education Teachers to Increase Professionalism
in Tebing Tinggi City
135
Mhd Fazar Afandi...
Development of Innovative PJOK teaching materials on floor gymnastics
materials to improve learning outcomes of Grade Students at Junior Hight School
138
Bangun Saragih...
The Influence of the Discovery Learning Model assisted with Image Media and
Motivation Against Civics Learning Outcomes of Students in Class IV of Public
Elementary Schools 055980 Aman Damai 2017/2018
142
Heryansyah Ginting; Dede Ruslan; Reh Bungana Br.Perangin-angin...
Development of science teaching materials based on Science Technology Society
(STM) and its influence on learning outcomes of fourth grade students of MIN
Medan Tembung
149
Diah Hafizhotul Husna; Nuraini; Ramlan Silaban...
The Improvement of Cooperative Learning Model Application Skill in Numbered
Head Together Through Clinical Supervision of Art Teacher in SDN 060886
Medan Baru
154
Unita Vitta Omas Sianturi; Martua Manullang; Rosmala Dewi...
Gold of North Sumatera Program Coach Performance
159
Suyono; Hariadi; Supryetno...
Transitivity Systems Analysis of Bilingual Civic 3 Education Textbook for Grade
XII
163
Jusup Sitepu; Anni Holila Pulungan; I Wayan Dirgeyasa Tangkas...
The Lecturer Performance Development of the STKIP Bina Bangsa Getsempena
Banda Aceh
169
Saiful Bahri...
The Interference of Batak Mandailing Language to Indonesian (In The Interaction
At The Seventh
Grade Students Of Madrasah Tsanawiyah Swasta Al-Azhar
Kabupaten Tapanuli Selatan Padang Sidimpuan)
175
Siti Jahria Sitompul; Abdurrahman Adisaputera; Sumarsi...
The Influence of Microbiology Dictionary and Microbiology Textbook
Utilization in the Contextual Learning Framework on Biology Students Higher
Order Thinking Skills
177
Kiki Rizqi Sahara; Hasruddin; Ashar Hasairin...
The Differences of Learning Style and St
udents’ Creativity to Students’
Achievement in Dribbling the Ball in Playing Football of Seventh Grade Students
of SMP Ar
–
Rahman Percut
180
Muammar Afif Marpaung; Imran Akhmad; Rahma Dewi...
Development of Gobag Sodor Game Model to Increase Interest in Elementary
Students
184
Siska Nova Undari...
The Influence of Research-Based Learning with Portfolio Assessment on Science
Process Skills in Microbiology Course for Biology Program Students
187
Saudah Rahmayanti; Hasruddin; Tumiur Gultom...
The Influence of Teaching Style and Confident Against the Results of a Study of
Shooting in the Game of Football (Experiment Studies the Self Check Style and
vi
Tembung Sabilina)
Muhammad Syaiful; Ramadhan Harahap...
Development of Mirror Writing Teaching Materials Based on Class XI Media
Literation of Lolomatua 1 State High School
195
Yanida Bu'ulolo; Biner Ambarita; Marice...
The Development of Teaching Materials for Technology- Assisted Procedure
Text in Vocational High School
197
Nova Andarini; Biner Ambarita; Malan Lubis...
Development of Adobe Flash Based Floor Gymnastics Media Learning on Health
Sport Education Lesson
201
Hardiansyah...
The Effect of Learning Approach and Linguistic Competence Capability Reading
The English Narative Text of Student SMA Negeri 6 Padangsidimpuan.
206
Sukriyah Batubara; Keysar Panjaitan...
……….
Analysis Effect of Household Consumption, Investment and Labor to Economy
Growth In Sumatera Utara
209
Richna Handriyani; Arwansyah; Sahyar...
Idioms Translation Strategies in Pasung Jiwa Novel English Version
213
Hariyanto; Amrin Saragih; Sumarsih...
Code Mixing in Novel: A Case of Indonesian Literary Work
216
Nurul Hidayanti Hasibuan; Amrin Saragih; Sumarsih...
Logico-Semantic Relation in Presidential Debate Between Hillary Clinton and
Donald Trump
221
Annisa Risma Khairani Lubis; Della Fransiska Ginting; Jumino Suhadi...
Semiotic Meanings in Cigarette Advertisement Texts
227
Rodearta Purba; Zainuddin; Amrin Saragih...
Modality as Hedging Device in the US Presidential Election Debate
232
Roobby Hamdanur; Anni Holila Pulungan; Zainuddiin...
The Improving Mathematical Communication Ability Through Realistic
Mathematical Approach Based on Toba Batak Culture
235
Aman Sanusi Siregar...
Speech Functions of Doctors and Patients on Medical Consultation Process
239
Resti Citra Dewi; Anni Holila Pulungan, Sumarsih...
The Development of Venturimeter Instrumentation in Dynamic Fluid
243
Zahrani Dalimunthe; Rahmatsyah; Derlina...
Lexical Metaphors in Onang-onang of Bobby and Kahiyang Tortor Dance
246
Siti Rahma Ritonga; Anni Holila Pulungan; Didik Santoso...
The Discourse Markers in President Joko Widodo’s Speeches in KTT APEC
China in 2015
249
Syahbuddin Nasution1; Busmin Gurning; I Wayan Dirgayasa Tangkas...
Preparation of Papers in Two-Column Format for AISTEEL Conference
Proceedings
Translator’s Strategies in Transferring Cultural Values in Ratatouille
Film
254
Femy Septiani; Anni Holila Pulungan...
Lexical Metaphor In Printed Car Advertisements
258
Misdiana; Siti Aisyah Ginting; Amrin Saragih...
Political Discourse Analysis of Donald Trump Political Speech
263
Elisa Silviani Siregar; Prof. Dr.Zainuddin, M.Hum; Prof.Dr. Sri MindaMurni,
MS... ...
vii
Nurliana Harahap; Mahendra Ginting Manik; Indah Listiana...
Appraisal of Healthy Product Advertisement on Television
274
Nurun Nazipah Harahap; Siti Aisyah Ginting; Rahmad Husein Napitupuluh...
Lexical Metaphor in Andrea Hirata’s “The Dreamer” Novel
277
Nurul Sa’adah; I Wy. Dirgeyasa; Siti Aisyah Ginting
...
Impoliteness Strategies Used by Governor Candidates of DKI Jakarta in Governor
Election Debate 2017
281
Sri Minda Murni; Busmin Gurning
……
...
Intertextuality in Travel Umroh Advertisement
287
Afifah Nurul Khoirot Nasution; Anni Holila Pulungan; Eddy Setia...
Intertextuality on Oral Discourse in Sari Matua Batak Toba Ceremony
290
Dyan Yosephin Hutagalung; Anni Holila Pulungan; Rahmad Husein...
The Effect of Mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana L.) Peel to Creatine Kinase
Serum in Male Rats (Rattus norvegicus) with Fatigue from Swimming
293
Rika Nailuvar Sinaga; Jumadin IP; Zulaini...
Analysis of Technology Utilization to Measure The Throw Distance of The Ball
on Hammer Throw
296
Riki Prastian; Agung Sunarno; Sabaruddin Yunis Bangun...
The Interactions of Social Stratification and Karonese Register in Giving Pedah
Pedah Perjabun
300
Elkana Putra Tarigan; Amrin Saragih; Siti Aisyah Ginting...
Implementation Management Training Volleyball Club of Pertamina Year 2017
305
Reza Wibowo; Sanusi Hasibuan; Budi Valianto...
Lexical Metaphor in Printed Car Advertisements
308
Misdiana; Siti Aisyah Ginting; Amrin Saragih...
Improving Students’ Reading Comprehension
Ability In Descriptive Text
Through Flashcard
309
Aisya Hartati...
The Role of Teacher’s Training Model and Technological Approach to the
Improvement of Teachers’ Professionalis
312
Intan Sufiah Batubara...
The Difficulties of Students at the Second Year of St.Thomas 3 Senior High
School Medan in Translating English Idioms into Indonesian
315
Fitri Susi Sinurat...
The Effect Of Applying The Great Wind Blows Strategy On The Students’
Vocabulary Mastery
321
Gisca Irdayana Lubis...
Attitude of Examiners in Thesis Convocation
325
Mara Sutan Siregar...
Politeness Strategies in Mandailing Wedding Ceremony
329
209
Analysis Effect of Household Consumption,
Investment and Labor to Economy Growth
In Sumatera Utara
Richna Handriyani
Department of Economy, Postgraduate Faculty State University of Medan
Medan, Indonesia
e-mail : richna.handriyani92@gmail.com
Arwansyah
Department of Economy, Postgraduate Faculty State University of Medan
Medan, Indonesia
Sahyar
Department of Economy, Postgraduate Faculty State University of Medan
Medan City, North Sumatera Province
Abstract - Economic growth is related to the process of increasing the production of goods and services in the economic activities of society which is expected to increase the income of the community. The economic growth in Province of North Sumatera in the periode of 2006 to 2016 underwent fluctuating changes, so that it is necessary to be further studied on such the causing factors.
This study aims to: identify the effect of household consumption on economic growth, identify the effect of investment on economic growth, identify the influence of Labor on economic growth, and identify the effect of interest rate on economic growth . The data used in this research is secondary data in 2006-2016 in Province of North Sumatera. Data obtained from various agencies, namely: Department of Labor and Transmigration, Central Statistics Agency of Province of North Sumatra, some other sources such as journals and relevant research results. Methods of analysis using Two Stage Least Square method (TSLS).
The results of the study found that: Household consumption has a positive and significant effectto economic growth, Investment has positive and significant effect to economic growth, Labor has positive and significant impact to economic growth, and interest rate has a negative and significant effect on economic growth.
Keywords : Household Consumption Expenditure, Investment, Labor, Interest Rates, Economic Growth.
I. INTRODUCTION
Economic development is essentially a business undertaken by the government with the goals of the community of a region has a level of welfare of life and a better economy. In achieving economic development, there are three macro indicators that serve as a measure of development progress. The three indicators are growth rate, employment and price stability (Mankiw, 2006). Economic development and economic growth are inseparable entities, as economic
development can promote economic growth, and vice versa. One of the indicators of successful implementation of macro development is economic growth. Economic growth seen throughincreased output over time is an important indicator in measuring the success of a country's development (Todaro, 2005).
One of the targets of regional economic development is to increase the regional economic growth rate. Regional economic growth is measured by the growth of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) at constant prices. GDP growth rate will show a long-term increase in output per capita.
TABLE 1. Household Consumption, Investment, Labor and Economic
Growth in North Sumatera Year 2006-2016
The economic growth rate in Province of North Sumatera has fluctuated from 2006 to 2016. This is because economic growth is influenced by many factors, such as public
Year Household
Consumption Investment Labor
210 development of public consumption expenditure has increased
from year to year, the cause is the increase in people's income. Investments in North Sumatra have increased in the past few years, but economic growth has declined during the year, increasing investment rates have resulted in the number of unemployed workers absorbing and increasing the number of unemployed. Labor as one of the factors of production plays an important role in increasing the economic growth of a country that can affect the high level of national income. However, there are two main problems facing Labor in Indonesia, namely low employee wage and high unemployment rate (Sumarsono, 2003).
II. LITERATURE
The Economic growth is defined as the development of activities in the economy that cause goods and services produced in society increases and the welfare of society increases (Sukirno, 2000). Economic growth can stem from growth on the aggregate demand side and the aggregate supply side (Tambunan, 2011). According to Classical Economic Growth Theory, economic growth depends on factors of production (Sukirno, 2004). Meanwhile, according to Neo-Classical Economic Growth Theory, economic growth depends on the development of factors of production, namely: capital accumulation, Labor and population (Sukirno, 2001).
Consumption can also be interpreted as a share of household income used to finance the purchase of various services and other needs. The amount of consumption is always changing according to the rise and fall of income, if income increases then consumption will increase. Conversely, if income falls then consumption will fall (Partadireja, 1990). The consumption of households is the value of the household purchases to buy their share of needs within a certain year (Sukirno, 2001).
Investments can be made by private, government or government-private partnerships. Investment is a way that can be done by the government to increase economic growth and for the long term can raise the standard of living community (Mankiw, 2003). Foreign investment or commonly referred to as Foreign Investment (PMA) is one of the efforts to increase the amount of capital for economic development that is sourced from abroad.
In the production process as the basis of economic activity, Labor is a very important factor because Labor acts as an economic agent. Labor capable of active action, able to influence and manage management of other production factors involved in the production process. Indirectly the number of Laborers working is a description of the conditions of available employment. The greater the available employment, the more workforce will be absorbed. With the absorption of Labor then the total production in an area will increase.
Theoretically, the relationship between independent variable and dependent variable in this research is depicted in the following chart:
Substitute equation (2) into (1), to obtain: C = c0 + c1 (Y) + v1 C = c0 + c1 (C + I ) + v1 C = c0 + c1C + c1I+ v1 ………...……..… (5)
Equations (5) and (3) substitute into equation (1), so that it is obtained: Y = C + I Y = c0 + c1C + c1I+ v1 + i0 + i1Y – i1R + v2 Y - i1Y = c0 + i0 + c1C + c1I – i1R + v1 + v2 (1- i1) Y = c0 + i0 + c1C + c1I – i1R + v4 ... (6)
To obtain a balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply can be done by changing equation (6) and equation (4) into implicit form that is:
(1- i1) Y - c0 - i0 - c1C - c1I + i1R - v4 = β 0+ β 1I + β 2 TK + v3
(1- i1) Y = c0 + i0 + c1C + c1I – i1R + v4 + β 0+ β 1I + β 2 TK +
v3
(1- i1) Y = (c0 + i0 + β 0) + c1C + (c1+ β1) I + β 2 TK - i1R + v5
The reduced form can be written as follows:
Y = π0 + π1 C + π2 I + π3 TK–π4 R + µ
IV. RESULT
The results of the study will see the positive and negative effects between household consumption, investment, labor and interest rate on the economic growthin North Sumatra. Data processing assisted by using eviews 6.
211 model testing. The data is processed by using Eviews 6. The
result is as follows:
TABLE 3. Estimation of Household Consumption Equation
Dependent Variable: LOGCR
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -8.848739 2.460383 3.596489 0.0058 LOGY 0.810715 1.331670 8.869092 0.0000 R-squared 0.897332 North Sumatra Province with estimated coefficient of 0.810715. Income contribution to consumption is influenced by 89.73% of the remaining 10.27% influenced by other variables that are outside the model.
TABLE 4. Estimation of Investment Equation Dependent Variable: LOGI
Variable
Coefficie
nt Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 3.392042 15.61670 0.217206 0.8335 LOGY 0.494457 4.922742 1.522415 0.0166 LOGR -1.194593 3.525020 -1.338890 0.0434 R-squared 0.889707
Adjusted R
squared 0.862134 Prob
(F-statistic) 0.000148
From the estimation that has been done got the equation model of investment that is: Log (I) = 3.39204 + 0.494457log(Y) – 1.194593 log (R). The estimation result shows that income has a positive effect on investment in North Sumatra Province with estimated coefficient of 0.494457 and the interest rate negatively affect investment in Province of North Sumatera with the estimated coefficient of 1.194593. Contribution of interest rate to investment equal to 88,97% and the rest 11,03% influenced by other variable outside model.
TABLE 5. Estimated Equation of Agregat Supply
Dependent Variable: LOGY
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -4.250349 3.761523 -1.129954 0.2912 LOGI 0.068715 0.024375 2.819126 0.0225 LOGTK 0.316532 0.253040 2.150918 0.0463
R-squared 0.846348 Adjusted
R-squared 0.807935
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000557
From the estimation that has been done got model equation of Labor that is: Log (Y) = -4.250349 + 0.068715 log (I) + 0.316532 log (TK). Estimation results show that Labor has a positive effect on investment in North Sumatra Province with an estimated coefficient of 0.068715. Contribution of investment and Labor constant economic growth of 80.79% and the remaining 19.21% influenced by other variables outside the model.
TABLE 6. Estimated Equation of Economic Growth
Dependent Variable: LOGY
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 5.700877 6.631526 0.859663 0.4184 LOGCR 0.141739 0.167694 1.858488 0.0009 LOGI 0.080831 0.067693 2.819126 0.0266 LOGTK 0.447653 0.176023 2.543153 0.0385 LOGR -0.558069 0.191552 -2.913404 0.0226 R-squared 0.961274
Adjusted R-squared 0.935457 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000226
From the estimation that has been done got the equation model of Labor is: Log (Y) = 5.700877 + 1..141739 log(Y) + 0.080831log(I) + 0.447653log(TK) - 0.588069log(R). The estimation result shows that the household consumpton has a positive affect the economic growth in Province of North Sumatera with the estimated coefficient of 1.141739. Investment has a positive effect on economic growth in North Sumatra Province with an estimated coefficient of 0.080831. Labor has a positive effect on economic growth in Province of North Sumatera with an estimated coefficient of 0.447653. The estimation result shows that the interest rate negatively affect the economic growth in Province of North Sumatera with the estimated coefficient of 0.588069
Based on adjusted R-squared value from the equation of economic growth shows the contribution of interest rate, investment and Labor to economic growth together influenced by 96.12% the remaining 3.88% influenced by other variables that are outside the model.
212 Chart 2. Residual Data Normality Test
0 1 2 3 4
-0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02
Series: Residuals Skewness 0.095017 Kurtosis 2.400158
Jarque-Bera 0.181465 Probability 0.913262
Based on Table results of data obtained results that the data of three equations in this study spread normally at
significant level> α = 0.05. This shows that the data of
economic growth equation, household consumption, investment and labor are all normally distributed.
V. DISCUSSION
The results showed that all independent variables individually or jointly affect the dependent variables, namely household consumption, investment and labor significantly influence the economic growth in North Sumatra. Household consumption decisions are influenced by both long-term and short-term behavior. This is in line with the results of the Xi-xiang and Ling-li (2013) studies that found that there is a stable relationship between household consumption and economic growth in the run, the relative relationship between them presents positive correlation.
The greater the household income a person has, the greater the level of consumption expenditure, and if the level of consumption expenditure increases, it will also have a positive effect on economic growth. Mankiw (2003) who discloses that consumption decisions are essential for short-term analysis because of their role in determining aggregate demand.
Economic growth of North Sumatra Province is also influenced by the development of investment. An increase in capital investment or capital formation will result in an increase in the production of goods and services within the economy. Increased production of goods and services will lead to an increase in economic growth.
The findings of this study are in line with Jhingan (2004) assertion that investment plays a role in creating revenue and is able to expand the production capacity of the economy by increasing stocks of capital. On the other hand, Silvia, Wardi and Aimon (2013) finds that investment has a significant and positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia. Similarly, Nwakobyang Bernard (2016) finds that there is an effect of private sector investment on economic growth in Nigeria.
Economic growth in North Sumatra Province is also significantly influenced by the workforce. According to Todaro (2000) population growth and Labor force growth (AK) is traditionally regarded as one of the positive factors that spur economic growth. The results of this study are in line
run and long relationship between the economic growth and Labor force participation.
VI. CONCLUSION
Based on the results of this study, it can be concluded that:
1. Household consumption has a positive and significant effect toeconomic growth in North Sumatra Province. These results indicate that rising household consumption causes economic growth in North Sumatra Province will also increase.
2. Investment has a positive and significant effect toeconomic growth in North Sumatra Province. These results indicate if investment increases the economic growth of North Sumatra Province will also increase. 3. Labor has a positive and significant effect toeconomic
growth in Sumatra Province. These results indicate that if Labor increases, then economic growth in North Sumatra Province will also increase.
4. Interest rates have a negative and significant effect to economic growth in North Sumatra Province. These results indicate if interest rates rise then the economic growth of North Sumatra Province will decline.
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