LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Data-Data yang Dipakai untuk Mengestimasi Permintaan dan Penawaran Jagung Sumetera Utara.
Lanjutan Lampiran 1. Data-Data yang Dipakai untuk Mengestimasi Permintaan dan Penawaran Jagung Sumetera Utara. Sumber : a. Ketahanan Pangan Sumatera Utara
Lanjutan Lampiran 2. Data-Data PKP Nominal, Inflasi, dan Index Harga Konsumen Sumatera Utara.
Tahun PKP Nominal
a
Sumber : a. Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3. Hasil Estimasi Permintaan Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: QD Method: Least Squares Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:36 Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4 Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 45124.15 69185.63 0.652219 0.5169
HJG -253.0106 43.27852 -5.846100 0.0000
JPSU 27715.41 7485.871 3.702363 0.0005
PKP 0.129813 0.015885 8.172011 0.0000
R-squared 0.839848 Mean dependent var 387565.5 Adjusted R-squared 0.831268 S.D. dependent var 39076.90 S.E. of regression 16051.60 Akaike info criterion 22.26935 Sum squared resid 1.44E+10 Schwarz criterion 22.40897 Log likelihood -664.0804 Hannan-Quinn criter. 22.32396 F-statistic 97.88923 Durbin-Watson stat 1.528100 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 4. Hasil Pengujian Normalitas Permintaan Jagung Sumatera Utara.
0 2 4 6 8 10
-40000 -30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Series: Residuals Sample 1999Q1 2013Q4 Observations 60
Mean -1.65e-10
Median -1807.163
Maximum 43371.84
Minimum -35823.40
Std. Dev. 15638.19
Skewness 0.364809
Kurtosis 3.230293
Jarque-Bera 1.463441
Probability 0.481081
Lampiran 5. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Harga Jagung Terhadap Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Permintaan Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: HJG Method: Least Squares Date: 04/17/15 Time: 00:57 Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4 Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -168.0585 210.5682 -0.798119 0.4281
JPSU 60.23796 21.47617 2.804874 0.0069
PKP 0.000159 4.38E-05 3.622278 0.0006
R-squared 0.740564 Mean dependent var 840.9000 Adjusted R-squared 0.731461 S.D. dependent var 94.79929 S.E. of regression 49.12567 Akaike info criterion 10.67535 Sum squared resid 137559.9 Schwarz criterion 10.78006 Log likelihood -317.2604 Hannan-Quinn criter. 10.71631 F-statistic 81.35381 Durbin-Watson stat 0.500353 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 6. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Pendapatan Per Kapita Terhadap Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Permintaan Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: PKP Method: Least Squares Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:09 Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4 Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -2853626. 435816.2 -6.547774 0.0000
HJG 1178.536 325.3576 3.622278 0.0006
JPSU 276677.6 50528.67 5.475655 0.0000
R-squared 0.806526 Mean dependent var 1602791. Adjusted R-squared 0.799738 S.D. dependent var 299084.2 S.E. of regression 133842.2 Akaike info criterion 26.49542 Sum squared resid 1.02E+12 Schwarz criterion 26.60014 Log likelihood -791.8625 Hannan-Quinn criter. 26.53638 F-statistic 118.8067 Durbin-Watson stat 0.306865 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 7. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Permintaan Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: JPSU Method: Least Squares Date: 04/17/15 Time: 00:57 Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4 Included observations: 60
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 8.835097 0.359303 24.58954 0.0000
HJG 0.002013 0.000718 2.804874 0.0069
PKP 1.25E-06 2.28E-07 5.475655 0.0000
R-squared 0.790857 Mean dependent var 12.52500 Adjusted R-squared 0.783518 S.D. dependent var 0.610419 S.E. of regression 0.284013 Akaike info criterion 0.369115 Sum squared resid 4.597821 Schwarz criterion 0.473832 Log likelihood -8.073453 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.410076 F-statistic 107.7702 Durbin-Watson stat 0.339463 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 8. Hasil Uji Autokorelasi Persamaan Permintaan Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 1.825544 Prob. F(2,54) 0.1709
Obs*R-squared 3.799846 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.1496
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:38 Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4 Included observations: 60
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -8878.660 68374.68 -0.129853 0.8972
HJG -11.80763 43.31618 -0.272592 0.7862
JPSU 1555.951 7437.802 0.209195 0.8351
PKP -0.000443 0.015659 -0.028272 0.9775
RESID(-1) 0.207186 0.136869 1.513755 0.1359 RESID(-2) 0.110526 0.145690 0.758635 0.4514 R-squared 0.063331 Mean dependent var -1.65E-10 Adjusted R-squared -0.023398 S.D. dependent var 15638.19 S.E. of regression 15820.08 Akaike info criterion 22.27059 Sum squared resid 1.35E+10 Schwarz criterion 22.48002 Log likelihood -662.1176 Hannan-Quinn criter. 22.35251 F-statistic 0.730218 Durbin-Watson stat 1.952289 Prob(F-statistic) 0.603886
Lampiran 9. Hasil Uji Heteroskedastitas Persamaan Permintaan Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic 2.153015 Prob. F(9,50) 0.0418
Obs*R-squared 16.75809 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.0526 Scaled explained SS 16.27908 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.0613
Test Equation:
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 1.12E+11 9.55E+10 1.172022 0.2467
HJG^2 1306.003 24756.24 0.052754 0.9581
HJG*JPSU -6978651. 3688732. -1.891884 0.0643
HJG*PKP 2.992795 12.86004 0.232721 0.8169
HJG 78477664 31941471 2.456921 0.0175
JPSU^2 1.15E+09 8.87E+08 1.298540 0.2001
JPSU*PKP 211.4718 3266.941 0.064731 0.9486
JPSU -2.31E+10 1.83E+10 -1.259711 0.2136
PKP^2 -0.000949 0.003317 -0.286204 0.7759
PKP -1823.111 30263.59 -0.060241 0.9522
Lampiran 10. Hasil Estimasi Penawaran Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: QS Method: Least Squares Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:55
Sample (adjusted): 1999Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 59 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -378516.1 53936.76 -7.017777 0.0000
HJG 37.90631 151.3603 0.250438 0.8032
HJG(-1) 536.8887 145.6358 3.686517 0.0005
LPJ 2.373997 0.641045 3.703323 0.0005
R-squared 0.713839 Mean dependent var 237305.2 Adjusted R-squared 0.698230 S.D. dependent var 79970.22 S.E. of regression 43930.50 Akaike info criterion 24.28399 Sum squared resid 1.06E+11 Schwarz criterion 24.42484 Log likelihood -712.3778 Hannan-Quinn criter. 24.33898 F-statistic 45.73317 Durbin-Watson stat 1.478911 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 11. Hasil Pengujian Normalitas Penawaran Jagung Sumatera Utara.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-80000 -40000 0 40000 80000 120000
Series: Residuals Sample 1999Q2 2013Q4 Observations 59
Mean 2.96e-11
Median -3469.823
Maximum 142446.3
Minimum -109825.4
Std. Dev. 42779.28
Skewness 0.452375
Kurtosis 4.403592
Jarque-Bera 6.855415
Probability 0.032461
Lampiran 12. Hasil Multikolinearitas Harga Jagung Terhadap Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Penawaran Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: HJG Method: Least Squares Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:58
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2013Q4
Included observations: 50 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 185.4269 111.1281 1.668587 0.1018
HJG(-1) 0.593439 0.129897 4.568542 0.0000
LPJ 0.003218 0.000998 3.223533 0.0023
R-squared 0.447007 Mean dependent var 853.0000 Adjusted R-squared 0.423475 S.D. dependent var 97.26043 S.E. of regression 73.84909 Akaike info criterion 11.50005 Sum squared resid 256323.4 Schwarz criterion 11.61477 Log likelihood -284.5012 Hannan-Quinn criter. 11.54374 F-statistic 18.99601 Durbin-Watson stat 0.493666 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001
Lampiran 13. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Harga Jagung Tahun Sebelumnya Terhadap Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Penawaran Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: HJG(-1) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/17/15 Time: 02:00
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2013Q4
Included observations: 50 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 412.6984 88.30939 4.673324 0.0000
HJG 0.518193 0.113426 4.568542 0.0000
LPJ -0.000685 0.001026 -0.668087 0.5073
R-squared 0.331099 Mean dependent var 815.6200 Adjusted R-squared 0.302635 S.D. dependent var 82.63663 S.E. of regression 69.00852 Akaike info criterion 11.36446 Sum squared resid 223822.3 Schwarz criterion 11.47918 Log likelihood -281.1115 Hannan-Quinn criter. 11.40815 F-statistic 11.63224 Durbin-Watson stat 0.460901 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000079
Lampiran 14. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Luas Panen Jagung Terhadap Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Penawaran Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: LPJ Method: Least Squares Date: 04/17/15 Time: 02:11
Sample (adjusted): 1999Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 59 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 12744.49 11113.79 1.146728 0.2564
HJG 66.51622 30.27431 2.197118 0.0322
HJG(-1) -14.93596 30.29318 -0.493047 0.6239 R-squared 0.236261 Mean dependent var 56313.41 Adjusted R-squared 0.208985 S.D. dependent var 10296.54 S.E. of regression 9157.641 Akaike info criterion 21.13207 Sum squared resid 4.70E+09 Schwarz criterion 21.23771 Log likelihood -620.3962 Hannan-Quinn criter. 21.17331 F-statistic 8.661758 Durbin-Watson stat 1.962608 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000528
Lampiran 15. Hasil Uji Autokorelasi Persamaan Penawaran Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 1.986711 Prob. F(2,53) 0.1472
Obs*R-squared 4.114759 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.1278
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 04/17/15 Time: 02:08 Sample: 1999Q2 2013Q4 Included observations: 59
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 23888.62 54673.07 0.436936 0.6639
HJG -67.04910 152.8494 -0.438661 0.6627
HJG(-1) 52.06706 145.5417 0.357747 0.7220
LPJ -0.209065 0.638960 -0.327196 0.7448
RESID(-1) 0.220508 0.146343 1.506785 0.1378 RESID(-2) 0.162025 0.150474 1.076764 0.2865 R-squared 0.069742 Mean dependent var 2.96E-11 Adjusted R-squared -0.018019 S.D. dependent var 42779.28 S.E. of regression 43162.97 Akaike info criterion 24.27950 Sum squared resid 9.87E+10 Schwarz criterion 24.49077 Log likelihood -710.2452 Hannan-Quinn criter. 24.36197 F-statistic 0.794684 Durbin-Watson stat 1.926617 Prob(F-statistic) 0.558354
Lampiran 16. Hasil Uji Heteroskedastistas Persamaan Penawaran Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic 0.904961 Prob. F(9,49) 0.5285
Obs*R-squared 8.409084 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.4935 Scaled explained SS 12.43591 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.1898
Test Equation:
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -3.63E+10 5.89E+10 -0.616214 0.5406
HJG^2 -124612.8 237875.7 -0.523857 0.6027
HJG*HJG(-1) 110673.2 386763.0 0.286153 0.7760
HJG*LPJ 742.8126 1411.477 0.526266 0.6011
HJG 77564088 1.68E+08 0.461340 0.6466
HJG(-1)^2 -19053.38 218382.5 -0.087248 0.9308 HJG(-1)*LPJ -658.0720 1649.620 -0.398923 0.6917 HJG(-1) -11471983 1.50E+08 -0.076265 0.9395
LPJ^2 -2.141467 3.139247 -0.682159 0.4984
LPJ 162367.6 674863.6 0.240593 0.8109
R-squared 0.142527 Mean dependent var 1.80E+09 Adjusted R-squared -0.014968 S.D. dependent var 3.35E+09 S.E. of regression 3.37E+09 Akaike info criterion 46.86897 Sum squared resid 5.57E+20 Schwarz criterion 47.22110 Log likelihood -1372.635 Hannan-Quinn criter. 47.00643 F-statistic 0.904961 Durbin-Watson stat 2.159199 Prob(F-statistic) 0.528475
Lampiran 17. Perkembangan Ekspor dan Impor Jagung Indonesia
Tahun Impor Ekspor Neraca
ton ton ton
1997 1,098,354 18,957 (1,079,397)
1998 299,917 624,942 325,025
1999 618,060 90,647 (527,413)
2000 1,264,575 28,066 (1,236,509)
2001 1,035,797 90,474 (945,323)
2002 1,154,063 16,306 (1,137,757)
2003 1,345,446 33,691 (1,311,755)
2004 1,088,928 32,679 (1,056,248)
2005 185,597 54,009 (131,589)
2006 1,775,321 28,074 (1,747,247)
2007 701,953 101,740 (600,213)
2008 286,541 107,001 (179,540)
2009 338,798 62,575 (276,222)
2010 1,527,516 41,954 (1,485,562)
2011 3,207,657 12,717 (3,194,940)
2012 1,692,994 34,899 (1,658,096)
2013 3,191,045 7,932 (3,183,113)
