!
!
Evaluate Prospects
Evaluate Risks
Business Decision Makers
• Equity investors
• Equity investors
• Creditors
• Managers
• Merger and Acquisition Analysts
• External Auditors
• Directors
• Regulators
• Employees & Unions
"
#
"
"
#
"
!
!
Quantitative
• Financial Statements • Industry Statistics
Qualitative
• Management Discussion & Analysis
• Industry Statistics
• Economic Indicators
• Regulatory filings
• Trade reports
Analysis
• Chairperson’s Letter
• Vision/Mission Statement
• Financial Press • Press Releases
$
!
$
!
Trade Creditors
• Provide goods or services
• Most short-term
Non-trade Creditors
• Provide major financing
Creditors
• Most short-term
• Usually implicit interest • Bear risk of default
• Most long-term
• Usually explicit interest
$
!
$
!
Liquidity
Ability to meet short-term obligations
Solvency Ability to meet long-term obligations
Credit worthiness: Ability to honor credit obligations
(downside risk)
obligations
Focus:
• Current Financial conditions
• Current cash flows
• Liquidity of assets
obligations
Focus:
• Long-term financial conditions
• Long-term cash flows
%
!
!
%
!
!
Technical Analysis Charting
Fundamental Analysis
Business
&Uses of Funds Profitability
Analysis
Risk Analysis
!
!
!
!
# $
%
&
# ' ( )
#
(
( #
!
#
&
"
!
!
#
&
"
!
Rivalry Among Existing Firm • Industry growth • Concentration • Differentiation • Switching Cost • Fixed variable cost • Excess Capacity
Exit barriers
Threat of New Entrance • Scale of economies • Distribution access • Relationships
• Legal barriers
Threat of Substitutes Product
• Relative Price and
performance
• Buyers willingness to
switch
*
INDUSTRY PROFITABILITY • Exit barriers
Bargaining power of Buyers
• Switching costs • Differentiation
• Importance of product for
cost and quality
• Number of buyers • Volume per buyer
Bargaining power of Suppliers
• Switching costs • Differentiation
• Importance of product for
cost and quality
##
!
##
!
Comparability problems — across firms and across time
Process to evaluate and adjust financial
statements to better reflect economic reality
+
Comparability problems — across firms and across time
Manager estimation error
Distortion problems Earnings management
Distortion of business
#
!
#
!
Profitability analysis—Evaluate return on investments
Process to evaluate financial position and
performance using financial statements
,
on investments Risk analysis ——— Evaluate riskiness
& creditworthiness Analysis of — Evaluate source &
# ' " ( deployment of funds
Common tools
Ratio analysis
)
)
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. (
! /
# #(
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,
1 9 X3 1 9 X2 1 9 X1 1 9 X3 -1 9 X2 1 9 X2 -1 9 XI 1 9 X3 -1 9 X2 1 9 X2 -1 9 X1 AKTIVA
Kas 69.0 80.5 80.5 (11.5) 0.0 (14.3) 0.0 Piutang dag ang 46.0 34.5 23.0 11.5 11.5 33.3 50.0 S urat-s urat be rharg a 46.0 34.5 11.5 11.5 23.0 33.3 200.0 Pe rs e dian 115.0 103.5 115.0 11.5 (11.5) 11.1 (10.0)
Jumlah 276.0 253.0 230.0 23.0 23.0 9.1 10.0 Aktiva te tap (ne t) 230.0 207.0 195.5 23.0 11.5 11.1 5.9
JUMLAH AKTIVA 506.0 460.0 425.5 46.0 34.5 10.0 8.1
KEWAJIBAN DAN EKUITAS KEWAJIBAN:
Hutang Lanc ar 127.4 115.0 119.6 12.4 (4.6) 10.8 (3.8) Hutang Jk. Panjang 184.0 172.5 161.0 11.5 11.5 6.7 7.1
Jumlah 311.4 287.5 280.6 23.9 6.9 8.3 2.5
EKUITAS :
# #(
( # # # # 2 (
-
+
-
+
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6 ( # ## ( 2
# ( ( 7 ( ## (
$
. /
$
. /
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"
Fees earned $187,500 100.0% $150,000 100.0%
Operating expenses:
Wages expense $60,000 32,0% $45,000 30.0%
2006 2005
Amount Percent Amount Percent
J. Holmes, Attorney-at-Law Income Statements
For the Years Ended December 31, 2005 and 2006
&
Wages expense $60,000 32,0% $45,000 30.0%
Rent expense 15,000 8,0% 12,000 8.0%
Utilities expense 12,500 6,7% 9,000 6.0%
Supplies expense 2,700 1,4% 3,000 2.0%
Miscellaneous exp. 2,300 1,2% 1,800 1.2%
Total operating expenses $92,500 49,3% $70,800 47.2%
$
,
KEWAJIBAN D AN EKU ITAS!
0 1 1
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1
CLOVER CORPORATION
Com pa ra tive Incom e Sta te m e nts
For the Ye a rs Ende d De ce m be r 31, 1999 a nd 1998
1999 1998
Revenue
Net sales $494,000 $450,000
Cost of m erchandise sold 140,000 127,000 Cost of m erchandise sold 140,000 127,000
Gross profit 354,000 323,000
Operating expenses 270,000 249,000 Incom e from operations 84,000 74,000 Interest expense 2,640 3,200 Other expenses 1,360 800 Incom e before incom e tax 80,000 70,000 Incom e tax expense (20%) 16,000 14,000
$
1
$
1
CLOVER CORPORATION Com pa ra tive Bala nce She ets
De ce m be r 31, 1999 a nd 1998
1999 1998 Assets
Cash $ 30,000 $ 20,000 Cash $ 30,000 $ 20,000 Accounts receivable 20,000 17,000 Merchandise inventory 12,000 10,000 Equipment 60,000 60,000 Less Accumulated depreciation (15,000) (12,000) Building 100,000 100,000 Less Accumulated depreciation (25,000) (20,000) Land 168,000 125,000 T otal Assets $ 350,000 $ 300,000
$
1
$
1
CLOVER CORPORATION
Com pa rative Ba la nce She ets, Continue d De ce m be r 31, 1999 a nd 1998
1999 1998 Liabilities
Accounts payable $ 39,000 $ 40,000 Accounts payable $ 39,000 $ 40,000 Notes payable 33,000 40,000 T otal Liabilities $ 72,000 $ 80,000
Stockholders' Equity
" 1 '
# # 2
5 ! 1 '
1 " ' 1
1 2
7
# 1
7
# 1
Net Working Capital = Current Assets - Current Liabilities
Angka ini mengindikasikan kemampuan
perusahaan dalam memenuhi utang jangka pendek. Nilai yang tinggi mengindikasikan kemamapuan
likuiditas yang tinggi. Perbandingan dilakukan dengan kondisi tahun sebelumnya dan kebutuhan
7
# 1
7
# 1
Net Working Capital = Current Assets - Current Liabilities
Jika Net working capital terlalu tinggi (overliquid)
Net Working Capital = 62.000 – 39.000 = 23.000
Jika Net working capital terlalu tinggi (overliquid) maka tingkat profitabilitas relatif rendah, sehingga
$
$
Current Ratio
Current Assets Current Liabilities =
Rasio ini mengukur kemampuan perusahaan untuk membayar kewajiban yang akan jatuh tempo. Nilai
yang tinggi mengindikasikan likuiditas yang baik,
namun jika terlalu tinggi dapat juga merupakan indikasi kekurangmampuan perusahaan dalam memanfaatkan
$
$
Current Ratio
Current Assets Current Liabilities =
Current $62,000
= = 1.59 : 1
Dua aktiva yang sangat mempengaruhi adalah piutang dan persediaan. Untuk itu perlu jika dilakukan analisa mengenai kualitas piutang
dan persediaan perusahaan
8 #
3 #
+
4
8 #
3 #
+
4
Quick Assets Current Liabilities =
Quick Ratio
Quick assets adalah Cash, Accounts Receivable, and
Notes Receivable.
Rasio ini mengevaluasi posisi likuiditas perusahaan dalam
8 #
3 #
+
4
8 #
3 #
+
4
Quick Assets Current Liabilities =
Quick Ratio
$50,000
= 1.28 : 1 =
Quick
Rasio ini mengevaluasi kemampuan perusahaan untuk membayar kewajiban
yang segera jatuh tempo
$39,000 = 1.28 : 1 =
$
'
$
'
Cash Ratio
Cash + Cash Equivalents Current Liabilities
=
Rasio ini mengukur ketersediaan kas
$
'
$
'
Cash Ratio
Cash + Cash Equivalents Current Liabilities
=
= 0.769 : 1
Cash $30,000
=
Nilai yang besar berarti kemampuan membayar utang tinggi, namun terlalu besar berarti terjadi idle cash
' 1 " " "
1 ' " ! ! 2
" 1 1 1 !
' 1 1 2
# 1 1 1 1 6
# 1 1 1 1 6
# 1 1
1 " 2 ' ! 1 1
#
+
#
+
Net Credit Sales
Average Net Trade Receivables Receivable
Turnover =
Rasio ini mengukur berapa cepat perusahaan mampu menagih accounts
#
+
#
+
Net Credit Sales
Average Net Trade Receivables Receivable
Turnover =
$494,000 Receivable
Semakin tinggi perputaran A/R akan diperoleh nilai penjualan yang tinggi. Perusahaan
dengan turnover yang rendah cenderung memiliki profitabilitas yang tinggi dan
sebaliknya
$494,000
($20,000 + $17,000) ÷ 2 = 26.70 times Receivable
"
#
"
#
Days in Year
Receivable Turnover Average Age
of Receivables =
Receivable Turnover sebesar 26.70 kali.
Rasio ini mengukur jumlah hari untuk melakukan penagihan
"
#
"
#
Days in Year
Receivable Turnover Average Age
of Receivables =
365
Average Age 365 = 13.67 days 26.70
Average Age of Receivables
=
Rasio ini dibandingkan dengan jangka waktu kredit yang diberikan. Perusahaan yang memiliki penagihan yang bagus memiliki rasio ini lebih kecil
! +
! +
Cost of Goods Sold
Average Inventory Inventory
Turnover =
Rasio ini mengukur tingkat perputaran persediaan perusahaan. Penurunan tingkat
! +
! +
Cost of Goods Sold
Average Inventory Inventory
Turnover =
Inventory $140,000
Inventory turnover yang tinggi menunjukkan tingkat penjualan yang tinggi. Perusahaan dengan
inventory turnover yang tinggi cnederung memiliki profitabilitas yang rendah dan
sebaliknya
Inventory Turnover
$140,000
5 ! 9
11 !
!
5 ! 9
11 !
!
Days in Year
Inventory Turnover Average Days’
Supply in Inventory
=
Inventory Turnover sebesar 12.73 kali.
5 ! 9
11 !
!
5 ! 9
11 !
!
Days in Year
Inventory Turnover Average Days’
Supply in Inventory
=
365 Average Days’
= 28.67 days 365
12.73 =
Average Days’ Supply in Inventory
:
+
:
+
Fixed Asset Turnover
Net Sales Revenue
Average Net Fixed Assets =
Rasio ini mengukur kemampuan perusahaan menciptakan
:
+
Net Sales Revenue
Average Net Fixed Assets =
Semakin besar rasio ini menunjukkan perusahaan sangat efisien memanfaatkan aktiva tetap yang
dimilikinya sedangkan nilai yang kecil
mengindikasikan perusahaan kurang mampu memanfaatkan aktiva tetapnya.
+
+
+
+
Total Asset Turnover
Net Sales Revenue Average Total Assets =
Rasio ini mengukur kemampuan perusahaan menciptakan
+
+
Net Sales Revenue Average Total Assets =
Semakin besar rasio ini
mengindikasikan bahwa aktiva yang dimiliki dapat optimal dimanfaatkan
untuk menciptakan penjualan
1
$!#
1
$!#
Siklus
usaha Average collection period + Average age of inventory =
Jumlah hari yang dibutuhkan untuk melakukan pembelian dan
$
' $
$!#
$
' $
$!#
Cash Conversion Cycle
Operating cycle -Payables defferal period =
'
7
# 1
'
7
# 1
Working capital Yang dibutuhkan
jumlah unit produksi per hari x Biaya produksi per unit x
Cash conversion cycle =
Kebutuhan modal kerja yang diperlukan pada level produksi
0
0
1
1
'
!
!
1
1
!
+
+
Net Interest Income Tax Income Expense Expense
Interest Expense Times
Interest Earned
=
+ +
Rasio ini menunjukkan kemampuan perusahaan untuk memenuhi kewajiban
+
Semakin tinggi rasio ini berarti
kemampuan membayar bunga dari laba yang dimiliki semakin tinggi.
$
' $
$
' $
Cash Coverage
Cash Flow from Operating Activities Before Interest and Taxes
Interest Paid =
Rasio ini membandingkan kas yang dihasilkan dari kegiatan operasi dan penggunaan kas untuk membayar utang
$
' $
$
' $
Cash Coverage
Cash Flow from Operating Activities Before Interest and Taxes
Interest Paid =
Cash Flow from Operating Activities
Net Income $ 64,000
Add Depreciation 8,000
Deduct Accounts Receivable Increase (3,000)
Inventory Increase (2,000)
Accounts Payable Decrease (1,000)
$
' $
$
' $
Cash Coverage
Cash Flow from Operating Activities Before Interest and Taxes
Interest Paid =
Cash
Coverage =
$66,000 + $2,640 + $16,000
$2,640 = 32.06
Nilai yang besar menunjukkan perusahaan memiliki dana dari kegiatan operasi yang
5
0 %
!
5
0 %
!
Total Liabilities Owners’ Equity Debt/Equity
Ratio =
Rasio ini mengukur jumlah utang untuk setiap dolar dana yang
5
0 %
!
5
0 %
!
Total Liabilities Owners’ Equity Debt/Equity
Ratio =
$72,000 Debt/Equity $72,000
$278,000 = .259 : 1 Debt/Equity
Ratio =
Nilai rasio lebih dari satu
menunjukkan jumlah utang yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan ekuitas
5
5
Total Liabilities Total Asset Debt Ratio =
$72,000 $72,000
$350,000 = 0,2057 Debt Ratio =
5
(
5
(
Total Liabilities
Total Ekuitas – intangible asset Debt to tangible
net worth
=
Lebih konservatif dibandingkan debt rasio karena menghilangkan unsur
:
#
$
:
#
$
Fixed
Financial =
EBIT +ELIE
Gross Interest Expense + ELIE
"
Cost Ratio Gross Interest Expense + ELIE
$ ' " ( # " " : " # # ;
$ < :1 <
:1 <
"
$ ' " ( = ;
$
==
5
5
0+
0+
Total Long-term Debt Total Long-term Asset LT Debt/
Total Asset
=
"
+
+
==
5
5
+
+
$ 1
$ 1
Total Interest-bearing Debt
1
"
1
"
1 6
' 1 ' #
' 2 1
1 ' '
1
"
#
1
"
#
' ' ( (
1
3>4 1 "" # #! : ' ( '
"
: ' ( '
# 1 ? " ! # 1 #
3@4 1 1 " !
!, 1 " 1 # "
1 # " ' # 1 1 !
" ! 1 ! " '
(
9
(
9
Income
Average Owners’ Equity Return on Owners’
Investment =
Ukuran ini menunjukkan kemampuan perusahaan memanfaatkan dana yang diinvestasikan pemilik
(
9
(
9
Income
Average Owners’ Equity Return on Owners’
Investment =
Semakin besar ROE maka return yang diperoleh untuk setiap Rp yang ditanamkan oleh pemegang saham semakin tinggi. ROE sering digunakan sebagai kriteria
evaluasi suatu investasi dalam saham.
Return on Owners’ Investment
$64,000
($278,000 + $220,000) ÷ 2
+
+
Return on Total Investment
Income + Interest Expense (net of tax)
Average Total Assets =
Rasio ini merupakan ukuran terbaik untuk mengukur profitabilitas keseluruhan perusahaan. Menunjukkan
imbal hasil atas setiap dana yang ditanamkan di perusahaan. Untuk melihat efisiensi penggunaan
+
+
Return on Total Investment
Income + Interest Expense (net of tax)
Average Total Assets =
Return on Total $64,000 + ($2,640 × 0.8)
Rasio ini sering digunakan sebagai kriteria minimal diterima tidaknya suatu proyek. Jika proyek dengan
return lebih kecil dari ROI akan berdampak menurunkan ROI perusahaan secara keseluruhan
Return on Total Investment
$64,000 + ($2,640 × 0.8) ($350,000 + $300,000) ÷ 2
#
#
Financial Leverage
Return on Owners’ Return on Total Investment Investment
= –
Return on Owners’
Investment sebesar 25.70%.
Return on Total Investment sebesar 20.34%.
Financial leverage adalah keuntungan atau kerugian yang muncul karena ROE berbeda dari ROI. Leverage menunjukkan keuntungan atau kerugian dari kebijakan
#
#
Financial Leverage
Return on Owners’ Return on Total Investment Investment
= –
Financial
= 25.70% – 20.34% = 5.36%
Jika financial leverage positif berarti kebijakan berhutang memberikan tambahan ROE bagi pemegang saham dan sebaliknya. Untuk melihat utang memberikan manfaat atau tidak bisa dilihat dari
rasio ini.
Financial
1
'
3
4
1
'
3
4
Income
Average Number of Shares of Common Stock Outstanding EPS =
EPS menggambarkan laba yang dihasilkan dari setiap lembar saham
1
'
3
4
1
'
3
4
Income
Average Number of Shares of Common Stock Outstanding EPS =
EPS sering digunakan sebagai ukuran keuntungan yang akan diterima oleh pemegang saham
EPS $64,000
(27,400 + 17,000) ÷ 2
8
! "
#
8
! "
#
Quality of Income
Cash Flow from Operating Activities
Net Income =
Jika penghasilan diterima dalam bentuk kas
kualitasnya akan lebih baik daripada jika pendapatan tersebut baru diterima secara akrual (sudah terjadi
8
! "
#
8
! "
#
Quality of Income
Cash Flow from Operating Activities
Net Income =
Cash Flow from Operating Activities Cash Flow from Operating Activities
Net Income $ 64,000
Add Depreciation 8,000
Deduct Accounts Receivable Increase (3,000)
Inventory Increase (2,000)
Accounts Payable Decrease (1,000)
8
! "
#
8
! "
#
Quality of Income
Cash Flow from Operating Activities
Net Income =
Quality $66,000
= = 1.031
Jika nilainya lebih dari satu maka laba perusahaan
berkualitas.
Quality of Income
$66,000
$64,000
""
Gross Profit Margin
Gross pofit Net Sales =
Rasio ini mengukur berapa keuntungan dari penjualan yang tersisa setelah dikurangi
""
Profit Margin
Income (before extraordinary items)
Net Sales =
""
= 12.96% Profit $64,000
= Profit
Margin
Income (before extraordinary items)
Net Sales =
Ukuran ini menunjukkan seberapa besar laba yang akan dihasilkan perusahaan.
= 12.96% Profit
Margin
$64,000
" :
" :
Profit Margin
Penjualan bersih
Total aktiva tetap rata-rata =
!
!
'
!
!
+ " " ' ( # 1 /
+' # ! " # # ! '
" 9 !
! ! ' ! "
' " 9 1 #
*
' " 9 1 #
#
# ! "
% ! ' " 9 " " :
#
+' ## 1 " " # "
+( " # # ' ! " 1
!
#!# #
*
#!# # 1
# ' " : #
: 1 # # # 1 " !
( ' #'
!
!
σσσσ of operating income Mean operating income Business
% Operating Income % Sales
Operating
Leverage
#
#
+( " " # ' 1 " # # ' A
5 % !
# ' " ( 1 ! " : " #
*
# ' " ( 1 ! " : " # #'
0 #
+5 0 $ ' #
: " # #
1
1
1
'
'
1
'
1
'
!
1
# 0
3 0 4
# 0
3 0 4
P/E Ratio = Current Market Price Per Share Earnings Per Share
Pada 12/31/99 harga pasar saham Clover Corporation sebesar $73 per saham.
Rasio ini menunjukkan hubungan antara harga pasar saham dengan laba per
saham.
# 0
3 0 4
# 0
3 0 4
P/E Ratio = Current Market Price Per Share Earnings Per Share
P/E Ratio = $73.00
$2.88 = 25.34
PER identik dengan berapa lama waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk mengembalikan investasi
(pembelian saham) yang telah dilakukan. Semakin besar berarti payback periodnya semakin
panjang.
P/E Ratio =
5
B
5
B
Dividend Yield
Dividends Per Share Market Price Per Share =
Pada 1999 deviden yang dibayarkan
Rasio ini menggambarkan hubungan antara dividen per saham biasa dengan
harga pasar per saham biasa.
Pada 1999 deviden yang dibayarkan oleh Clover Corporation sebesar $2.50
5
B
5
B
Dividend Yield
Dividends Per Share Market Price Per Share =
Dividend Yield
$2.50 $73.00
= = 3.42%
Semakin tinggi rasio ini menunjukkan semakin besar prosentase pemegang
saham memperoleh hasil dari investasinya dalam bentuk deviden
!
!
'
1
"
!
2
-
1
'
-
1
'
Book Value per Share
Common Stock Equity
Number of Shares of
Common Stock Outstanding =
Book value per share mengukur ekuitas perusahaan untuk tiap lembar saham. Nilai ini tidak memiliki hubungan dengan
-
1
'
-
1
'
Book Value per Share
Common Stock Equity
Number of Shares of
Common Stock Outstanding =
Jika harga pasar jauh di atas nilai bukunya berarti perusahaan tersebut memiliki kinerja non keuangan yang bagus yang mendukung
kegiatan perusahaan di masa mendatang
Book Value per Share
$278,000 27,400
5
!
5
!
Deviden Payout
Deviden per saham
Earning per share =
Rasio ini menunjukkan besar prosentase laba per saham yang dialokasikan oleh
manajemen untuk dibagikan dalam bentuk deviden.
Deviden Payout
$2,5 2,88
( '
!
( '
!
( '
/
;
C
+
;
C
The DuPont Model
The DuPont Model
9 ( #( %
9 ( 0: 2 ( ;
9 ( 0: 2 ( ;
4 #
The DuPont Model
The DuPont Model
#
# 0: 2 ( ( # ( %
6 ( #( # # ##
6 ( #( # # ##
# # # (
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; ( #
( ' )
; # # # #(
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4 # ; ( ( ( 2 (
The DuPont Model (ROE)
The DuPont Model (ROE)
ROE =
1
1
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1 1 ' 2
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1 #
1
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Business Analysis and Valuation Using Financial Statements
ninth edition by, Krishna G. Palepu, Victor L. Bernard, and Paul M. Healy
Financial Statement Reporting and Analysis
+
Financial Statement Reporting and Analysis
third edition by Wild, Subramanyam, Hasley,
Financial Statement Analysis, A Global Perspective
international edition by Thomas R. Robinson, Paul Munter and Julia Grant
Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management
