Target 5, ,443.73

(1)

Selasa, 13 Desember 2016

Target 5,380.69 – 5,443.73

Beberapa berita ekonomi di pekan kemarin diantaranya: 1) Kementerian ESDM mengeluarkan

Peraturan Menteri (Permen) No.40 tahun 2016 tentang harga gas untuk industri tertentu.

Adapun mulai 1 Januari 2017, tiga industri yang mendapat perlakuan khusus dengan mendapat

penurunan harga gas yaitu industri yang berbahan baku gas seperti industri petrokimia, industri

pupuk, dan industri baja. 2) Keputusan OPEC akan pengurangan produksi 1.2 juta barel per

hari menjadi 32.5 juta barel per hari membuat potensi kenaikan harga minyak dunia yang

otomatis membuat kenaikan harga minyak di dalam negeri. Hal ini membuat asumsi makro

yang tercantum pada APBN 2017 menjadi tidak relevan karena salah satu asumsinya adalah

harga minyak dalam negeri. Akibatnya penerimaan negara berpotensi menjadi lebih tinggi dari

target semula. 3) Menurut Bank Indonesia, besaran cadangan devisa yang digunakan untuk

menjaga kestabilan nilai tukar rupiah tidak besar sehingga posisinya masih aman. Di sisi lain

cadangan devisa masih berpeluang meningkat sampai dengan akhir tahun 2016 dari program

repatriasi. Tercatatkan jumlah cadangan devisa November 2016 sebesar US$ 111.5 miliar,

turun US$ 3.5 miliar dari US$ 115 miliar di Oktober 2016 akibat pembayaran utang luar negeri

dibanding penggunaan devisa untuk stabilitas nilai tukar. Jumlah cadangan devisa sampai

dengan November 2016 masih cukup untuk membiayai 8.5 bulan impor atau 8.1 bulan impor

dan pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah. Di sisi lain pengurangan pajak yang menjadi

rencana Presiden terpilih AS Donald Trump, membuat potensi negara tersebut menerbitkan

obligasi pemerintah untuk pembiayaan pembagunan infrastruktur dimana menjadi salah satu

rencana saat kampanye Trump. Hal ini berdampak pada kepastian The Fed untuk mulai

menaikkan tingkat bunganya, yang tentunya membuat ruang pelonggaran tingkat bunga BI

semakin kecil. Secara keseluruhan dalam sepekan terakhir IHSG berhasil menguat kembali

sebesar 1.19% atau 62.17 poin dan ditutup di level 5,308.13. Akumulasi minat jual asing juga

tercatatkan masih menyelimuti pergerakan indeks, dimana tercatatkan dalam sepekan sampai

dengan empat pekan terakhir masing masing sebesar Rp.2.27 triliun, Rp.5.48 triliun, Rp.8.20

triliun, dan Rp.11.35 triliun. Dan tercatatkan penguatan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS

dalam sepekan terakhir dari Rp.13.524 menjadi Rp.13.337.

Setelah target di level 5,275.74 tercapai di pekan kemarin, IHSG masih berpeluang untuk

menguji level 5,380.69 – 5,443.73 sebagai target selanjutnya selama masih bertahan di atas

5,212. Namun dalam sepekan kedepan pergerakannya akan dibayangi oleh aksi profit taking

dari beberapa saham yang telah jenuh beli (oversold) sehingga potensi penguatan mulai

terbatas. Dan pergerakan IHSG dalam sepekan kedepan diperkirakan akan dikisaran 5,135.10

– 5,355.06 sebagai support dan resistance sementara. Beberapa saham yang saat ini

underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah diantaranya AKRA, APLN, ASRI, BBCA, BBNI,

BBTN, CPIN, CTRS, DILD, INDF, KIJA, LPKR, LPPF, MNCN, SCMA, SMGR, SRIL, dan

SSMS. Sedangkan JSMR dan SILO saat ini termasuk saham saham underprice dan mendekati

PE ratio terendah, namun masih diliputi oleh sentimen negatif terkait rencana right issue. Berita

ekonomi domestik di pekan ini diantaranya neraca perdagangan November, penjualan motor

dan mobil November, ekspor dan impor November, dan keputusan tingkat bunga Desember.

Sedangkan berita ekonomi global di pekan ini diantaranya Treasury Budget, Import and Export

Prices,

Producer Price Index – Final Demand, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Business

Inventories,

EIA Petroleum Status Report, FOMC Meeting Announcement, FOMC Forecasts,

Fed Chair Press Conference,

Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed

Business Outlook Survey,

Empire State Mfg Survey, Housing Market Index, Treasury

International Capital, dan Housing Starts.

Widhi Indratmo Nugroho

Analyst [email protected] +62 21 5785 1818 (Ext.2051) Close Weekly Return ▲ Yield to Date ▲ PE (X) Volume (miliar) ▲ Value (Rp. triliun) ▲ BI 7-Day RR IDR/USD Rp. 15.57% 5,308.13 COMPOSITE LAST TOTAL TRANSACTION 1.19% ECONOMIC INDICATORS 13,337 4.75% 23.99 32.15 21.26

Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo

JCI vs Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD

4,300 4,630 4,960 5,290 5,620

4-Jan-16 25-Apr-16 22-Aug-16 8-Dec-16 (9,000) 5,000 19,000 33,000 47,000

Composite (LHS) Net Buy YTD in Rp.bn (RHS)

SECTOR Agriculture ▲ 1.14% ▲ 1.48% Basic Industry ▲ 1.70% ▲ 2.77% Consumer Goods ▲ 1.26% ▲ 2.56% Finance ▲ 1.73% ▲ 2.67% Infrastructure ▲ 1.50% ▲ 2.32% Manufacture ▲ 1.09% ▲ 2.60% Mining ▲ 0.16% ▲ 1.90% Misc. Industry ▼ -0.17% ▲ 2.52% Property ▲ 0.69% ▲ 1.87%

Trade & Service ▲ 0.78% ▲ 2.21%

9-Dec-16 2-Dec-16 WEEKLY RETURN

SECTOR Agriculture ▲ 14.40% ▲ 17.49% Basic Industry ▲ 4.87% ▲ 0.55% Consumer Goods ▲ 2.74% ▲ 1.23% Finance ▲ 17.44% ▲ 4.43% Infrastructure ▲ 7.29% ▲ 5.91% Manufacture ▲ 20.86% ▼ -0.82% Mining ▲ 6.97% ▲ 33.69% Misc. Industry ▲ 0.50% ▼ -1.49% Property ▼ -10.61% ▲ 29.31%

Trade & Service ▲ 14.33% ▲ 5.08% 9-Dec-16 2-Dec-16 WEEKLY CAPITAL FLOW

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PE Band IHSG

10 . 7 x 14 . 4 8 x 18 . 2 5 x 2 2 . 0 3 x 2 5 . 8 x -1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Dec- 03 Jun-05 Nov-06 Apr -08 Oct - 09 Mar - 11 Aug- 12 Jan- 14 Jun-15 Dec-16

Sector Performance 2016

J C I Basic Ind Consumer Manuf ac Mining Misc Ind 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000

Jan- 16 Feb- 16 Apr - 16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Sep- 16 Nov- 16 Dec- 16

Note: All Sectors Rebase to JCI Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo

Siklus Pergerakan Harian IHSG

J C I C y c l e Average +1 STDEV - 1 STDEV -1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Jan- 03 Jul-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Mar -09 Oct - 10 Apr - 12 Nov- 13 May- 15 Dec- 16

0.43 0.56 0.69 0.82 0.95 1.08 1.21 1.34 1.47 1.60 1.73

Bottom Fishing Buy on Weakness Trading Area Sell on Strength Closing 9 Desember 2016

Saat ini IHSG berada pada PE ratio

21.26x.

Krisis Global 2008

Saat ini siklus IHSG berada

dikisaran average.

Closing 9 Desember 2016 Closing 9 Desember 2016

Selama 2016 beberapa

sector yang outperformance

terhadap IHSG diantaranya:

sektor mining, basic

industry, misc.industry,

manufacture, dan consumer.

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Siklus Pergerakan Harian Beberapa Saham LQ45 & Lainnya

Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside

AALI 1.11 0.87 1.04 1.22 Trading 17,584 0.8% MPPA 1.02 0.90 1.16 1.42 Trading 1,924 13.2%

ADHI 0.86 0.83 1.18 1.52 Trading 2,595 19.0% MYRX 1.07 0.90 1.16 1.42 Trading 171

-ADRO 1.60 0.83 1.04 1.25 SoS 1,798 7.0% PGAS 1.07 0.92 1.08 1.23 Trading 3,054 7.5%

AKRA 0.96 0.92 1.13 1.34 Trading 7,350 14.8% PTBA 1.41 0.83 1.03 1.23 SoS 13,881 9.3%

ANTM 1.32 0.77 0.98 1.19 SoS 816 -13.6% PTPP 1.00 0.85 1.13 1.41 Trading 5,110 28.7%

ASII 1.04 0.90 1.12 1.34 Trading 8,679 10.9% PW ON 1.08 0.87 1.12 1.37 Trading 733 13.6%

ASRI 0.90 0.85 1.15 1.44 Trading 450 15.5% SCMA 0.85 0.91 1.25 1.60 BoW 3,285 29.3%

BBCA 1.04 1.00 1.10 1.21 Trading 16,381 11.4% SILO 1.05 1.14 1.25 1.37 BoW 11,665 13.8%

BBNI 1.05 0.90 1.14 1.38 Trading 6,356 16.1% SMGR 0.95 0.96 1.11 1.26 BoW 10,519 13.1%

BBRI 1.02 0.98 1.11 1.24 Trading 13,022 13.5% SMRA 0.90 0.91 1.18 1.45 BoW 1,744 17.8%

BBTN 0.96 0.82 0.97 1.13 Trading 2,188 26.5% SRIL 0.91 -9.21 3.52 16.24 Trading 295 22.9%

BMRI 1.07 0.93 1.11 1.30 Trading 11,106 1.2% SSMS 0.80 1.00 1.12 1.24 BoW 2,050 48.6%

BMTR 0.62 0.85 1.14 1.42 BoW 1,440 144.1% TLKM 1.02 0.95 1.05 1.15 Trading 4,732 19.5%

BSDE 0.92 0.73 1.18 1.64 Trading 2,381 31.2% UNTR 1.33 0.84 1.08 1.33 SoS 24,011 5.3%

CPIN 0.88 0.82 1.28 1.73 Trading 3,820 20.9% UNVR 0.94 0.98 1.10 1.23 BoW 44,665 7.8%

ELSA 0.99 1.09 1.39 0.79 BoW 460 0.0% WIKA 0.92 0.95 1.18 1.41 BoW 3,016 20.2%

GGRM 1.01 0.89 1.18 1.48 Trading 77,171 15.3% WSKT 1.05 0.87 1.12 1.37 Trading 3,339 29.9%

HMSP 0.10 0.97 1.15 1.32 BoW 4,272 7.3%

ICBP 0.70 0.96 1.10 1.23 BoW 10,267 16.0%

INCO 1.42 0.80 1.02 1.24 SoS 2,564 -22.5% CTRA 0.98 0.89 1.15 1.40 Trading 1,669 18.0%

INDF 1.05 0.86 1.11 1.37 Trading 9,990 24.1% CTRP 1.24 0.82 1.10 1.38 Trading 500 -30.1%

INTP 0.92 0.91 1.12 1.32 Trading 16,366 0.7% CTRS 1.12 0.87 1.16 1.45 Trading 4,059 46.5%

JSMR 0.86 0.96 1.14 1.31 BoW 5,771 32.4% KIJA 0.99 0.84 1.10 1.35 Trading 438 57.4%

KLBF 1.03 1.00 1.20 1.39 Trading 1,736 10.2% SMCB 0.92 0.85 1.10 1.35 Trading 912 -6.0%

LPKR 0.74 0.87 1.04 1.20 BoW 1,051 39.2% GIAA 0.86 0.85 1.01 1.16 Trading 394 4.9%

LPPF 0.84 0.02 1.54 3.07 Trading 20,866 35.5% KAEF 1.60 0.90 1.18 1.47 SoS 1,788 -35.5%

LSIP 1.13 0.82 1.07 1.32 Trading 1,757 0.4% SMBR 2.41 0.94 1.01 1.08 SoS 810 -69.5%

MNCN 0.88 0.86 1.18 1.50 Trading 2,414 33.4% TINS 1.51 0.79 1.01 1.23 SoS 848 -31.6%

Note: 1. TP (Target Price) Konsensus Bloomberg 2. Cycle: Posisi harga close saham di minggu terakhir

3. Posisi Cycle yang berada dibawah (-1) standard deviation, diperkirakan mempunyai ruang koreksi yang mulai terbatas

OTHERS

Pemilihan Saham

Passive Strategy

AALI ADHI ADRO AKRA ASII ASRI BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BMRI BSDE CPIN CTRA ELSA GGRM ICBP INCO INDF INTP JSMR KLBF LPKR LPPF LSIP MNCN

MPPA PTBAPGAS

PTPP PWON SCMA SILO SMGR SMRA SSMS TLKM UNTR UNVR WIKA WSKT CTRP CTRS KIJA SMCB BJBR BJTM KAEF TINS DILD SRIL -43% -13% 17% 47% 77% 0. 4 1. 2 2. 0

Fairly Price Line

Over Price Area (Negative Alpha)

Under Price Area (Positive Alpha)

Beberapa saham yang berada di atas

fairly price line (security market line)

mencerminkan kondisi under price.

Investor dapat melakukan posisi beli

maupun menambah proporsi

(overweight) pada saham ini.

Sedangkan beberapa saham yang

berada di bawah fairly price line

mencerminkan kondisi over price.

Investor dapat melakukan posisi jual

atau mengurangi proporsi (underweight)

pada saham ini.

Sensitivity to Market Expected Return

Update 9 Desember 2016

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Saham Underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah

AKRA PE Band

APLN PE Band

18.6x 23.25x 27.3x 31.35x 35.4x 2,800 4,800 6,800 8,800

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

3.25x 5.69x 8.13x 10.57x 13x 100 250 400 550 700

Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo

ASRI PE Band

BBCA PE Band

10.65x 13.9x 17.15x 20.4x 250 500 750 1,000 1,250

15x 16.97x 18.93x 20.89x 22.85x 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000

BBNI PE Band

BBTN PE Band

7.5x 8.98x 10.45x 11.93x 13.4x 2,500 4,500 6,500 8,500

5.65x 8.47x 11.28x 14.09x 16.9x 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

CPIN PE Band

CTRS PE Band

12.5x 18.88x 25.25x 31.63x 38x 1,000 2,250 3,500 4,750 6,000

5.7x 5.7x 10.1x 14.5x 18.9x 23.3x 600 1,450 2,300 3,150 4,000

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DILD PE Band

INDF PE Band

9.5x 14.58x 19.65x 24.73x 29.8x 100 300 500 700 900

12.2x 12.2x 17.2x 22.2x 27.2x 32.2x 3,600 5,050 6,500 7,950 9,400

KIJA PE Band

LPKR PE Band

8.4x 15.96x 23.52x 38.64x 50 225 400 575 750

Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Jan-15 Jan-16 Dec-16

8.85x 18.64x 28.43x 38.22x 48x 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000

LPPF PE Band

MNCN PE Band

14.2x 20.3x 26.4x 32.5x 38.6x 10,000 13,000 16,000 19,000 22,000

Dec-13 Jul-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16

15.63x 20.45x 25.28x 30.1x 1,000 1,750 2,500 3,250 4,000

SCMA PE Band

SMGR PE Band

22.85x 29.6x 36.35x 43.1x 2,000 2,575 3,150 3,725 4,300

8.7x 12.18x 15.65x 19.13x 22.6x 6,000 9,500 13,000 16,500 20,000

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SRIL PE Band

SSMS PE Band

4.4x 6.85x 9.3x 11.75x 14.2x 50 175 300 425 550

8.9x 15.38x 21.85x 28.33x 34.8x 400 1,000 1,600 2,200 2,800

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Support Resistance Beta Volatility Bearish Bullish AGRICULTURE

Plantation & Others

Astra Ago Lestari Tbk AALI 17,300 16,350 17,475 0.88 5.75% 9.15% Underweight 16,800 17,725

PP London Sumatra Tbk LSIP 1,800 1,710 1,840 0.68 5.26% 36.36% Underweight 1,760 1,835

Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk SSMS 1,375 1,300 1,385 0.86 5.44% -29.49% Overweight 1,335 1,410

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk CPIN 3,130 3,090 3,320 1.42 5.79% 20.38% Overweight 2,980 3,260

MINING

Coal, Oil & Gas, Metal & Other Resources

Adaro Energy Tbk ADRO 1,665 1,530 1,700 1.69 7.28% 223.30% Overweight 1,570 1,745

Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam Tbk PTBA 12,300 11,325 12,575 1.35 6.34% 171.82% Overweight 11,750 12,775

Elnusa Tbk ELSA 464 400 484 1.24 7.81% 87.85% Underweight 444 480

Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk ANTM 965 940 1,005 0.83 6.80% 207.32% Underweight 935 985

Vale Indonesia Tbk INCO 3,380 3,330 3,630 0.97 7.77% 106.73% Underweight 3,270 3,470

BASIC INDUSTRY Cement & Others

Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Tbk. INTP 15,575 14,625 16,425 1.55 4.76% -30.24% Underweight 14,775 16,275

Semen Gresik Tbk SMGR 9,250 8,225 9,300 1.42 4.83% -18.86% Overweight 8,800 9,625

MISC.INDUSTRY Otomotif

Astra International Tbk ASII 7,850 7,550 7,975 1.41 4.75% 30.83% Overweight 7,475 8,175

Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk SRIL 238 236 246 0.81 7.43% -38.82% Overweight 232 244

CONSUMER GOODS

Foods, Cigarette, Pharmacy & Others

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 8,750 8,150 8,825 1.01 5.80% -35.06% Overweight 8,450 9,000

Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk INDF 7,450 7,225 7,725 1.07 3.99% 43.96% Overweight 7,175 7,675

Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR 42,400 39,800 42,400 0.98 3.33% 14.59% Underweight 41,025 43,600

Gudang Garam Tbk. GGRM 66,325 62,600 66,425 0.80 4.10% 20.59% Overweight 64,575 67,875

Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk HMSP 3,880 3,790 3,910 0.67 9.09% -95.87% Overweight 3,790 3,950

Kalbe Farma Tbk KLBF 1,540 1,385 1,590 1.13 3.83% 16.67% Overweight 1,480 1,590

PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION

Alam Sutera Realty Tbk ASRI 378 362 386 1.52 5.79% 10.20% Overweight 358 394

Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk BSDE 1,810 1,680 1,815 1.47 4.76% 0.56% Overweight 1,720 1,885

Lippo Karawaci Tbk LPKR 765 755 790 1.28 5.41% -26.09% Overweight 730 790

Pakuwon Jati Tbk PWON 675 650 710 1.54 5.35% 36.09% Overweight 640 705

Summarecon Agung Tbk SMRA 1,425 1,340 1,435 1.56 6.09% -13.64% Overweight 1,350 1,490

Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk ADHI 1,895 1,830 1,930 1.20 5.29% -11.45% Overweight 1,820 1,960

PP (Persero) Tbk PTPP 3,910 3,870 4,250 0.87 4.07% 0.90% Overweight 3,800 4,000

Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk WIKA 2,450 2,330 2,470 1.21 4.92% -7.20% Overweight 2,350 2,530

Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk WSKT 2,510 2,260 2,570 0.90 4.07% 50.30% Overweight 2,430 2,570

INFRASTRUCTURE

Energy, Transportation & Highway, Telecommunication, Non Building Construction

Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PGAS 2,710 2,570 2,730 1.14 5.10% -1.28% Overweight 2,600 2,800

Jasa Marga Tbk JSMR 4,260 3,900 4,280 1.05 3.77% -18.47% Overweight 4,110 4,390

Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk TLKM 3,910 3,770 3,960 0.95 2.91% 25.93% Overweight 3,780 4,010

FINANCE Bank

Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 14,675 14,125 15,125 1.14 3.04% 10.34% Overweight 14,125 15,150

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 5,300 5,025 5,350 1.45 4.43% 6.21% Overweight 5,025 5,525

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 11,300 10,425 11,375 1.50 4.32% -1.09% Overweight 10,725 11,775

Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk BBTN 1,670 1,590 1,680 0.91 4.24% 28.96% Overweight 1,620 1,710

Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 10,700 10,025 10,775 1.45 3.95% 15.68% Underweight 10,175 11,150

TRADE & SERVICE

Investment Company & Wholesale

AKR Corporindo Tbk AKRA 6,450 6,300 6,775 0.56 4.21% -10.10% Overweight 6,325 6,550

United Tractors Tbk UNTR 22,975 21,000 23,000 1.18 5.00% 35.55% Underweight 22,075 23,775

Matahari Departement Store Tbk LPPF 14,950 14,025 15,000 1.05 4.32% -15.06% Overweight 14,425 15,400

Matahari Putra Prima Tbk MPPA 1,715 1,700 1,760 1.48 6.47% -6.03% Overweight 1,630 1,785

Media Nusantara Citra Tbk MNCN 1,735 1,645 1,765 1.22 6.27% -6.47% Overweight 1,665 1,795

Surya Citra Media Tbk SCMA 2,580 2,280 2,590 1.21 4.50% -16.77% Overweight 2,470 2,670

Global Mediacom Tbk BMTR 620 585 640 1.46 6.70% -43.64% Overweight 590 645

Hanson International Tbk MYRX 173 134 173 0.71 7.88% -72.76% Overweight 169 177

Siloam International Hospitals Tbk SILO 10,750 10,175 10,900 0.57 4.64% 9.69% Overweight 10,550 10,925

Emiten Ticker Close Weekly Indicator YTD Performance Weekly Forecast

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DISCLAMER

This report has been prepared by PT. Lautandhana Securindo on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT. Lautandhana Securindo.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, PT. Lautandhana Securindo makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of PT. Lautandhana Securindo who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither PT. Lautandhana Securindo nor any officer or employee of PT. Lautandhana Securindo accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. PT. Lautandhana Securindo and/or person connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication.

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