Market Review
IHSG (-0.05%) ditutup melemah tipis 3.15 poin kelevel 6494.67 pada akhir sesi perdagangan. Sektor Industri Dasar (-1.09%) dan Aneka Industri (-0.64%) menjadi penekan IHSG setelah sempat bertahan hampir 2 sesi pada zona hijau. Saham-saham perternakan terkoreksi lebih dari sepersen. Saham CPIN 2.96%) dan JPFA (-2.40%) melemah setelah spekulasi mengenai pengaturan harga Ayam oleh pemerintah menjelang bulan ramadhan karena harga telah naik cukup signifikan sejak akhir tahun lalu. Investor asing masih melanjutkan aksi jual dan tercatat net sell 618.68 miliar rupiah.
Leader:
BBRI, BNII, PTBA, TLKM, ADRO Laggard:
BBCA, ASII, CPIN, BMRI, TPIA
Secara teknikal IHSG masih bergerak cenderung kuat bertahan diatas MA20 dengan Indikator Stochastic bullish pada momentum bullish indikator RSI. Potensi pergerakan positif menguji upper bollinger bands masih cukup kuat selama IHSG bertahan diatas MA20. Sehingga diperkirakan IHSG bergerak menguat dengan support 6476-6580. Saham-saham yang masih dapat diperhatikan diantaranya; TBLA, LSIP, TKIM, WSBP, ADRO, INDY, ANTM, INCO, WSKT, PTPP, BBTN, BMRI. Mayoritas bursa saham Asia pagi ini diperkirakan menguat dengan Indeks Nikkei (+0.29%) dan TOPIX (+0.23%) di Jepang dibuka lebih tinggi. Selain itu Indeks KOSPI (+0.60%) di Korea Selatan pun mengikuti lompatan diawal sesi perdagangan. Nilai tukar Yuan naik setelah adanya laporan mengenai permintaan AS terhadap China untuk menjaga mata uangnnya pada zona stabil sebagai bagian dari negosiasi perdagangan. Sikap ini bertujuan menetralkan segala upaya Tiongkok untuk mendevaluasi mata uangnnya untuk melawan tarif AS. Meskipun demikian kekhawatiran masih menghantui hingga 1 Maret dengan spekulasi tanpa kesepatan dan lebih mengarah pada tarif import baru dari AS. Harga komoditas Emas mendekati level tertinggi sejak bulan Mei 2018 sedangkan harga minyak WTI (-0.23%) tergelincir kelevel $56.32 perbarrel dan Harga Batubara NC (+0.21%) terus bertahan diatas level $95 per Mton dengan Komoditas logam mayoritas menguat dimana Nikel (+1.58%) kembali naik signifikan dan Timah (+0.09%) melanjutkan penguatannya dilevel tertinggi ditahun ini.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan
Analisis
:
• Pergerakan harga saham tertahan pada area support MA50. Indikasi rebound menguji resistance
• Stop-loss jika harga saham terkonfirmasi break out support MA50
• Indikator stochastic bergerak pada terkonsolidasi pada area oversold dengan volume perdagangan yang cukup tinggi.
• Support : 2090-2310
• Resistance : 2560-2850
• Stop-loss : 2380
• Target Price : 2740
BUY ON WEAKNESS
JPFA
Analisis
:
• Candlestick membentuk pola bullish separating line dengan indikasi kembali menguat menguji Resistance.
• Stop-loss jika harga saham break out support
• Indikator Stochastic berpotensi membentuk pola golden-cross dengan indicator RSI yang bullish reversal momentum.
• Support : 1790-1630
• Resistance : 1940-2120
• Stop-loss : 1820
• Target Price : 2030
SPECULATIVE BUY
Analisis
:
• Candlestick membentuk pola bullish harami dengan indikasi menguji resistance MA50 dan MA20.
• Stop-loss jika harga saham terkonfirmasi break out support • Indikator stochastic bergerak pada
area oversold dan membentuk pola golden-cross
• Support : 1300-1380
• Resistance : 1545-1650
• Stop-loss : 1360
• Target Price : 1595-1645
SPECULATIVE BUY
HRUM
Analisis
:
• Candlestick membentuk pola bullish harami dengan indikasi melakukan pengujian resistance MA200 dan MA20
• Stop-loss jika menggagalkan pola bullish harami
• Indikator Stochastic bergerak pada area oversold dengan pola golden-cross dan RSI yang mulai terlihat bullish reversal momentum.
• Support : 1510-1680
• Resistance : 1870-2050
• Stop-loss : 1730
• Target Price : 1885-1920
SPECULATIVE BUY
LS-27 Index
Legend :
B: BUY (allocate till 100% of the weighted capital to accumulate, higher than 50% upside probability) SB: SPECULATIVE BUY (allocate 25%-50% of the weighted capital to accumulate, 25%-50% upside probability) W: WAIT (wait for proper entry level, do the stop-loss if necessary)
H: HOLD (hold the portfolio position, aim for the best price to distribute)
PS: PARTIAL SELL (distribute 25%-50% part of the portfolio, 25%-50% downside probability) S: SELL (distribute till 100% of the portfolio, higher than 50% downside probability)
TB: TRADING BUY (short term or intraday trading within a tight trading range. Highly speculative).
Analyst Conclusions:
The Index has reached the wave 3.
Support Support Resist ance Resist ance
2 1 1 2
Agricult ure
TBLA 810 885 890 955 1,030 Break out resistance SB 880 955 AALI 12,750 13,575 13,900 14,350 15,000 Bullish momentum B 13,500 14,350 SSMS 1,050 1,115 1,140 1,180 2,250 Consolidations W 1,100
Basic Indust ry
TKIM 9,325 10,900 11,550 12,350 14,150 Bullish harami confirmations B 11,200 12,700 INKP 10,700 11,700 11,700 13,000 14,440 Consolidations W 10,600
CPIN 6,700 7,200 7,475 8,000 8,850 Whipsaw MA50 SB 7,100 8,000 Consumer
GGRM 80,700 84,500 85,650 88,000 92,000 Break out upper bound H 85,200 88,000 HOKI 580 620 640 675 720 Oversold W 600
ICBP 9,800 10,450 10,500 11,400 12,300 Consolidations TB 10,400 11,400 UNVR 47,100 49,000 49,500 51,400 53,000 Stoch golden-cross H 48,800 51,400 Finance
BBRI 3,550 3,750 3,910 3,940 4,100 Pulled back upper bands H 3,800 3,940 BBNI 8,200 8,650 8,850 9,100 9,525 Consolidations W 8,700
BBCA 25,800 26,800 27,125 28,275 29,750 Stoch golden-cross SB 27,000 28,275 Infrast ruct ure
TOWR 750 770 825 850 910 Consolidations PS 840
PGAS 2,250 2,410 2,510 2,600 2,720 Consolidations H 2,500 2,600 Misc. Indust ry
SRIL 300 322 336 340 350 Stoch golden-cross TB 330 350 ASII 7,500 7,800 7,775 8,100 8,500 Bullish kicker signal SB 7,700 8,100 Mining
PTBA 3,870 4,170 4,190 4,500 4,740 Break out resistance SB 4,160 4,500 ITMG 19,350 20,500 21,400 22,000 23,000 Stoch golden-cross SB 21,000 22,000 ADRO 1,130 1,215 1,295 1,310 1,400 Stoch golden-cross B 1,250 1,400 Propert y
LPCK 2,300 2,400 2,620 2,650 2,880 Rebounded at MA20 SB 2,500 2,850 WSKT 1,515 1,680 1,775 1,850 2,070 Bullish harami confirmations TB 1,750 1,850 PWON 595 625 645 660 700 Consolidations W 620
Trading
UNTR 24,000 25,425 26,275 27,000 28,500 Break out MA20 H 25,400 27,000 SCMA 1,600 1,700 1,795 1,800 1,900 Break out MA5 TB 1,780 1,900 LPPF 4,890 5,325 6,000 6,000 7,000 Break out support W 5,300
ERAA 1,875 2,100 2,160 2,400 2,670 Break out resistance SB 2,080 2,320
Equity Technical Analyst: Lanjar Nafi, lanjar@reliancesekuritas.com
Disclaimer on
St op-loss Target Price
Wednesday, 20 February 2019
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 19/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
Equity Technical Indicator
Re sistance P rice Sup p o rt We e kly We e kly
Fractal 19/02/2019 Fractal Hig h Lo w RSI B. Band 20 Days 50 Days 200 Days
PN BN .JK 1,450 1,505 1,315 1,590 1,495 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
PTBA.JK 4,470 4,190 3,930 4,280 4,040 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
PTPP.JK 2,370 2,110 1,995 2,170 2,070 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
PWON .JK 650 645 635 665 650 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
RALS.JK 1,825 1,770 1,615 1,825 1,810 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
ROTI.JK 1,240 1,195 1,195 1,215 1,210 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
SCMA.JK 1,855 1,795 1,705 1,795 1,760 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SGRO.JK 2,420 2,300 2,210 2,350 2,340 Overbought Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SIDO.jk 840 860 800 865 815 Neutral Bullish Neutral Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
SILO.JK 4,150 3,500 3,160 4,100 3,630 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Under
SIMP.JK 530 494 486 505 498 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Under
SMBR.JK 1,680 1,505 1,500 1,580 1,520 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SMCB.JK 2,040 2,010 1,980 2,040 2,020 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
SMGR.JK 12,775 12,525 12,200 12,775 12,300 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
SMRA.JK 990 885 865 955 895 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
SRIL.JK 350 336 328 344 340 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
SSMS.JK 1,200 1,140 1,165 1,170 1,155 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
TBIG.JK 4,830 4,510 4,460 4,700 4,580 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Upper Upper
TBLA.JK 990 890 845 905 880 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
TIN S.JK 1,430 1,525 1,270 1,615 1,445 Neutral Bearish Overbought Upper Bands Upper Upper Upper
TKIM.JK 13,950 11,550 11,200 12,575 11,575 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
TLKM.JK 3,940 3,920 3,730 3,940 3,800 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOTL.JK 650 615 600 640 625 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TOWR.JK 865 825 760 865 820 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
TPIA.JK 5,700 5,350 5,400 5,700 5,500 Neutral Bearish Neutral Lower Bands Under Under Upper
ULTJ.JK 1,270 1,215 1,200 1,220 1,215 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
UN TR.JK 26,775 26,275 24,250 26,375 25,500 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Under Under
UN V R.JK 50,050 49,500 48,875 49,725 48,600 Neutral Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WEGE.JK 342 308 292 334 320 Neutral Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WIKA.JK 1,945 1,665 1,835 1,765 1,690 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
WOOD.JK 735 765 580 785 715 Neutral Bullish Overbought Middle Bands Upper Upper Upper
WSBP.JK 420 378 368 398 380 Oversold Bullish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Upper
WSKT.JK 2,040 1,775 1,830 1,925 1,790 Oversold Bearish Neutral Middle Bands Under Under Under
Source : Reliance Research
T icke r Ind icato r Mo ving Ave rag e
