Outlook Perdagangan Indonesia 2017
Mohammad Faisal
Direktur CORE Indonesia
15 Oktober 2016
USA (24%)
2,2%
UE (
22%)
1,7%
China
(
15%)
6,2%
Global Economy Outlook 2017
Pertumbuhan masih relatif lambat & diwarnai ketidakpastian
0,6 %
Japan (6%)
•
Reaksi negative atas
terpilihnya Donald Trump
bersifat
short term
, positif
dalam jangka menengah
•
Pemotongan Pajak untuk
mendorong investasi
•
Peningkatan belanja
pertahanan dan
infrastruktur
•
Kecenderungan
hawkish
mengedepankan penaikan
suku bunga melawan inflasi
•
Pertumbuhan ekonomi rendah,
pengangguran tinggi,
ekspansi kredit lambat
•
Ekspansi fiskal terbatas
akibat tingginya public debt,
kebijakan moneter kurang
efektif & risiko di sektor
finansial
•
Meningkatnya
Eurosceptist
seperti Brexit dan hasil
referendum di Italia
memperlemah kekuatan
ekonomi Uni Eropa
•
Penataan kembali model
pertumbuhan berbasis
ekspor dan investasi
•
Risiko ketergantungan
pada utang dan investasi
dalam membiayai
ekonomi
•
Meningkatnya Loan
default di sektor
korporasi akibat turunnya
ekspor
China
15%
USA
24%
EU
2%
Jepang
6%
ASEAN-5 3%
Others,
30%
Distribusi PDB Global
2015
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
%
Sumber Pertumbuhan Ekonomi AS
Konsumsi Swasta
Investasi
Net Ekspor
Konsumsi Pemerintah
Industri
Jasa
4
6
8
10
12
14
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
%, YOY
m a n u f a k t u r d a n j a s a C h i n a
Pe r t u m bu h a n i n d u s t r i
Pengangguran
Inflasi
(skala kiri)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-13
Sep-15
%
%
Tantangan Ekonomi Global berlanjut
Bersiap dengan skenario kebijakan antisipatif
The Fed
Bank of Japan
Euro Central Bank
People's Bank of China …
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Sep-10
Sep-12
Sep-14
Sep-16
Kebijakan Moneter Longgar untuk mendorong
ekonomi
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan-07
Jan-10
Jan-13
Jan-16
Harga Komoditas Rendah Menekan Ekspor Emerging
Market
Emerging Market Bond Index
(skala kiri)
Global Bond Index
0
50
100
150
200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
Quantitave Easing mendorong investasi ke Emerging
Market dan sangat volatile
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Perdagangan Global Lebih Rendah dibandingkan
GDP indikasi proteksionisme
Beberapa indikator pendorong ekspor
Amerika
Jepang
Jerman
Korea
Inggris
China
Belgium
Kanada
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
%
im
p
o
r
d
ar
i In
d
o
n
es
ia
% Growth 2014-2015
Pa n g s a p a s a r e k s p o r t e k s t i l d a n p r o d u k t e k s t il
INDEX CRUDE OIL INDEX RUBBER 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
450
Indeks Harga Minyak Mentah dan Karet
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 Q1
2014 Q3
2015 Q1
2015 Q3
2016 Q1 P2016 Q3 P2017 Q1 P2017 Q3
Index komoditas (2014 = 100)
Timah
Tembaga
Batubara
MINYAK
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
juta ton
Negara-negara pengimpor batubara Indonesia
Proyeksi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 2017
Kategori
2016
2017
Sumber
Pertumbuhan
I
Produk Domestik Bruto
5.0%
5.2%
5.2%
1
Pengeluaran Konsumsi Rumahtangga
5.0%
5.1%
2.8%
2
Pengeluaran Konsumsi Pemerintah
2.0%
5.0%
0.4%
3
Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto
4.4%
5.5%
1.7%
4
Ekspor Barang dan Jasa
-3.6%
0.8%
1.0%
5
Impor Barang dan Jasa
-3.9%
0.3%
0.9%
II
Inflasi (%)
3.0%
3.0% - 4%
Struktur ekspor dan faktor pendorong tahun 2017
Dampak kebijakan Trump
Potensi ekspor
manufaktur dan komoditas:
•
Restriksi import terhadap China dan Meksiko
akan menjadi peluang terhadap produk
manufaktur negara pesaing termasuk
Indonesia
•
Peningkatan konsumsi akibat penciptaan
lapangan kerja manufaktur
permintaan
barang konsumsi
•
Pembangunan infrastruktur meningkatkan
kebutuhan bahan baku
•
Pembangunan industri manufaktur
meningkatkan kebutuhan bahan baku dan
energi
No Kategori produk (HS 2 digit)
Nilai Ekspor 2015 (USD Milyar) Petumbuhan ekspor tahunan 2011-2015, % Share terhadap ekspor dunia, % 1
Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous
substances; mineral ... 35 -15 2 2
Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared
edible fats; animal ... 19 -3 22 3
Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and
reproducers, television 9 -6 0 5 Rubber and articles thereof 6 -19 4 6
Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious
metals, metals clad ... 5 22 1 7
Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and
accessories thereof 5 11 0 8 Machinery, mechanical appliances, nuclear reactors, boilers; parts thereof 5 -2 0 9 Footwear, gaiters and the like; parts of such articles 5 8 3 10 Wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal 4 5 3 11 Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, not knitted or crocheted 4 0 2 12 Paper and paperboard; articles of paper pulp, of paper or of paperboard 4 -3 2 13 Ores, slag and ash 3 -22 2 14 Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted 3 -1 1 15 Miscellaneous chemical products 3 -5 2 16 Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates 3 1 3 17 Plastics and articles thereof 2 -1 0 18 Man-made staple fibres 2 -2 6 19 Coffee, tea, maté and spices 2 4 5 20 Organic chemicals 2 -10 1 21 Articles of iron or steel 2 2 1 22
Furniture; bedding, mattresses, mattress supports, cushions and similar
stuffed furnishings; ... 2 0 1 23
Pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; recovered (waste and
scrap) paper or ... 2 3 4 24 Copper and articles thereof 2 -18 1 25 Cocoa and cocoa preparations 1 1 3
Harga beberapa komoditas mulai
bergerak naik, walau marjinal
Trump’s Trade Policy
Peluang bagi Indonesia?
•
Membangun industri manufaktur dan
menciptakan lapangan pekerjaan di sektor
manufaktur
•
Meningkatkan restruksi impor dan
menekan defisit perdagangan khususnya
dengan China dan Meksiko
•
Membatasi tenaga kerja imigran
•
Memangkas pajak korporasi
•
Menggenjot pembangunan infrastruktur
•
Menjalin kerjasama perdagangan bilateral
dan menghindari kerjasama multilateral
(e.g. NAFTA, TPP).
•
Parsial atau menyeluruh?
•
Konsisten atau ada
9
24 Produk Impor Terbesar ke AS
:
Peluang light industry dan komoditas energi
No.
Golongan Produk (HS 2 digit)
Nilai Impor 2015
(USD Miliar)
Neraca Perdagangan 2015
(USD Miliar)
Pertumbuhan impor per
tahun 2011-2015 (%)
1
Electrical machinery and equipment; sound recorders and reproducers, television
333
-163
4
2
Machinery, mechanical appliances, nuclear reactors, boilers
329
-124
3
3
Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock
284
-157
7
4
Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral
201
-95
-17
5
Pharmaceutical products
86
-39
5
6
Commodities not elsewhere specified
81
-38
7
7
Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical
78
5
4
8
Furniture; bedding, mattresses, mattress supports, cushions and similar stuffed furnishings
61
-50
9
9
Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad
58
0
-3
10
Organic chemicals
52
-13
0
11
Plastics and articles thereof
50
10
6
12
Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted
49
-46
4
13
Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, not knitted or crocheted
41
-38
2
14
Articles of iron or steel
39
-19
3
15
Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof
35
96
14
16
Toys, games and sports requisites; parts and accessories thereof
31
-25
2
17
Footwear, gaiters and the like; parts of such articles
29
-27
5
18
Rubber and articles thereof
28
-14
-1
19
Iron and steel
28
-13
0
20
Beverages, spirits and vinegar
22
-15
4
21
Wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal
18
-9
11
22
Aluminium and articles thereof
18
-6
3
23
Paper and paperboard; articles of paper pulp, of paper or of paperboard
17
-1
1
24
Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates
16
-10
3
10
20 Eksportir Terbesar ke AS
:
Menangkap peluang dari restriksi impor produk China dan Meksiko
No.
Eksportir
Nilai Impor 2015
(USD Miliar)
Neraca Perdagangan 2015
(USD Miliar)
Share thd
Impor AS
(%)
Pertumbuhan impor
per tahun 2011-2015
(%)
Pertumbuhan impor
per tahun 2014-2015
(%)
1
China
503
-386
21.8
5
3
2
Canada
301
-21
13
0
-15
3
Mexico
297
-61
12.9
3
0
4
Japan
135
-72
5.8
-1
-2
5
Germany
126
-77
5.5
6
1
6
Korea, Republic of
74
-31
3.2
7
3
7
United Kingdom
59
-2
2.5
2
6
8
France
49
-17
2.1
5
2
9
India
47
-25
2
6
-1
10
Italy
45
-29
2
7
4
11
Taipei, Chinese
42
-16
1.8
0
1
12
Viet Nam
40
-33
1.7
21
24
13
Ireland
40
-31
1.7
0
16
14
Malaysia
35
-22
1.5
7
11
15
Switzerland
32
-10
1.4
7
0
16
Thailand
30
-18
1.3
3
6
17
Brazil
28
3
1.2
-3
-10
18
Israel
25
-11
1.1
2
6
19
Saudi Arabia
23
-4
1
-15
-52
20
Indonesia
21
-14
0.9
1
2
11
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Y= Pertumbuhan ekspor tahunan 2011-2015 (%)
X = Share thd ekspor
Indonesia (%)
Karet
Furniture
Z (Besar Bubble) = Nilai Ekspor 2015 (US$)
20 Ekspor terbesar Indonesia ke AS
:
Pertumbuhan produk ekspor terbesar (pakaian, elektronik, karet) lemah
Pakaian jadi
sulaman
Pakaian jadi
non-sulaman
Elektronik
Alas kaki
Hasil laut
Sumber: UNComtrade
Minyak sawit
Produk kimia
Hasil laut dan
daging kemasan
Pertumbuhan ekspor beberapa produk unggulan ke AS
12
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Articles of apparel and accessories (HS 61 & 62)
US$ billion
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Footwear, gaiters and the like, parts thereof (HS 64)
US$ billion
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Rubber and article thereof (HS 40)
0 5 10 15 20 25 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates (HS 03)
Indonesia Vietnam
