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DAILY MARKET CHARTS. Daily Edition, May 16, 2016

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DAILY MARKET CHARTS

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Awal Technical Rebound

Executive Summary

 Sinyal Sell masih mendominasi sehingga tekanan jual masih sangat mungkin terjadi

 Negative Return masih mendominasi saham LQ45. Suasana semakin negatif karena rata – rata saham LQ45

berada di bawah harga terendah dalam 5 hari (seminggu) serta harga terendah dalam sebulan

 Weekly Stochastic Oscillator terindikasi memberikan sinyal Alert Buy di dekat area Oversold. Market Chartist

melihat hal tersebut sebagai indikasikan bahwa masih ada peluang Technical Rebound

 Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG membentuk Bottoming di area 4,730 – 4,760 untuk kemudian naik

mendekati 4,850 di minggu ini

 Dominasi sinyal Sell dan Downtrend serta hampir seluruh counter turun pada hari Jum’at, Commodities

Related perlu diwaspadai hari ini

 Penurunan counter yang berhubungan dengan bangunan konstruksi berpotensi terbatas sedangkan Infra

lain cenderung Peak

 Consumer Related kembali menjadi defensive stock dan layak menjadi pilihan namun tidak dalam waktu

dekat karena terdominasi Overbought

 Bank dan Residential kemungkinan akan cenderung Flat

 Top Buy Signals : BBCA, INDF, UNVR, BBRI, LPKR dan SIMP

 Top Sell Signals : ICBP, LSIP, ASRI, PGAS, ITMG, INAF dan MNC

 Today’s Recommendation :

 ICBP (Rp15,600) : Taking Profit

 ADHI (Rp2,430) : Cut Loss

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 Bursa U.S ditutup turun dengan rentang -1.05% s.d -0.41% sedangkan bursa Eropa ditutup naik dengan

rentang 0.44% s.d 0.92%

 Perlemahan Rupiah (Rp13,315) berpotensi berlanjut mendekati Rp13,400. Ada potensi Rupiah terus

melemah menuju Rp13,600 ketika terjadi Breakout (USDIDR) Resistance di Rp13,400 tersebut

 USD Index (94.6) mendekati Resistance penting di 95. Market Chartist perkirakan USD Index sangat

mungkin terus menguat di atas 95, mendekati 96

 Brent (USD47.8) terus naik dalam Upswing dengan target menuju USD50 sedangkan WTI (46.3)

berpeluang melanjutkan Upswing menuju USD48

Market Matters

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Market Cap of LQ45 Stocks

Number of LQ45 Stocks

Summary

 Sinyal Sell masih mendominasi sehingga tekanan jual masih sangat mungkin terjadi

 Perlu diperhatikan bahwa terjadinya dominasi Uptrend secara Market Cap dan dominasi Oversold

berdasarkan jumlah saham LQ45 dapat mengindikasikan potensi kenaikan pada IHSG serta menyarankan untuk memperhatikan Middle dan Small Cap

Perhatikan Middle dan Small Cap

MC’s Technical Setups Overview Of LQ45 Stocks in Daily Timeframe

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related

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Gain/Loss of LQ45

LQ45 Position to High/Low

Summary

 Negative Return masih mendominasi saham LQ45

 Suasana semakin negatif karena rata – rata saham LQ45 berada di bawah harga terendah dalam 5 hari

(seminggu) serta harga terendah dalam sebulan

Kondisi Masih Negatif

MC’s Price Data Overview Of LQ45 Stocks in Daily Timeframe

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1D Gain 1D Loss 5D Gain 5D Loss 20D Gain 20D Loss 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Above Weekly High Below Weekly Low Above Monthly High Below Monthly Low

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 Weekly Stochastic Oscillator terindikasi memberikan sinyal Alert Buy di dekat area Oversold

 Market Chartist melihat hal tersebut sebagai indikasikan bahwa masih ada peluang Technical Rebound

Masih Berpotensi Technical Rebound

(7)

 Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG membentuk Bottoming di area 4,730 – 4,760 untuk kemudian naik

mendekati 4,850 di minggu ini

Bottoming Mengawali Technical Rebound

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 Dominasi sinyal Sell dan Downtrend serta hampir

seluruh counter turun pada hari Jum’at,

Commodities Related perlu diwaspadai hari ini

 Namun melihat lebih detail, Market Chartist

perkirakan terjadi Microscopic Oversold pada sub-sector Coal dan CPO sehingga ada peluang untuk turun terbatas membentuk Bottom terutama PTBA dan LSIP

 Mineral lebih memiliki harapan karena memasuki

Oversold area. Market Chartist menyukai INCO

Pantau Dengan Waspada

Commodities Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 1D Gain 1D Loss 5D Gain 5D Loss Volume Above Previous Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Both

Sub-Sector LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value

Coal ADRO Downtrend Sell Now 37

Coal PTBA Downtrend Sell Now 30

Coal UNTR Downtrend Sell Now 13

CPO AALI Downtrend Sell Now 38

CPO LSIP Downtrend Sell Now 59

CPO SSMS Downtrend Still Sell 12

Mineral ANTM Downtrend Sell Now 10

Mineral INCO Downtrend Sell Now 29

(9)

 Consumer Related kembali menjadi defensive

stock dan layak menjadi pilihan namun tidak dalam waktu dekat karena terdominasi

Overbought

 Perlu diwaspadai penurunan pada Cigarettes,

Media dan Retail

 Namun paska penurunan drastis, ASII dan CPIN

dapat dipantau dalam jangka pendek

 FMCG kemungkinan naik namun waspadai ICBP

Layak Menjadi Pilihan

Consumer Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 1D Gain 1D Loss 5D Gain 5D Loss Volume Above Previous Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Both

Sub-Sector LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value

Auto ASII Downtrend Still Sell 23

Cigarettes GGRM Uptrend Sell Now 72 Cigarettes HMSP Uptrend Warning Sell 83

FCMG ICBP Uptrend Warning Sell 100

FCMG INDF New Uptrend Buy Now 59

FCMG KLBF Downtrend Still Buy 37

FCMG UNVR New Uptrend Buy Now 61

Healthcare SILO New Uptrend Still Buy 83 Media BMTR New Uptrend Warning Sell 75 Media MNCN Uptrend Warning Sell 77 Media SCMA New Uptrend Buy Now 62 Poultry CPIN Downtrend Sell Now 6

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 Penurunan counter yang berhubungan dengan

bangunan konstruksi berpotensi terbatas sedangkan Infra lain cenderung Peak

 Market Chartist perkirakan sangat mungkin

terjadi Selling Climax pada Cement dan ADHI sehingga penurunan berpotensi telah terbatas

 Construction lain seperti PTPP dan WIKA sangat

mungkin naik namun WIKA berpeluang turun

 Market Chartist perkirakan AKRA berpeluang

Bottoming

 TBIG kemungkinan besar akan Flat membentuk

Selling Climax Pada Cement, AKRA Bottoming

Infrastructure Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data

Sub-Sector LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value

Cement INTP Downtrend Buy Now 5

Cement SMGR Downtrend Still Sell 12 Construction ADHI Downtrend Still Sell 10 Construction PTPP Downtrend Buy Now 48 Construction WIKA Downtrend Still Sell 20 Construction WSKT Uptrend Still Buy 65 Oil&Gas AKRA Downtrend Still Sell 57

Tower TBIG Uptrend Buy Now 89

Telecom TLKM Uptrend Sell Now 71

Toll JSMR Uptrend Still Buy 88

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 1D Gain 1D Loss 5D Gain 5D Loss Volume Above Previous Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Both

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 Bank dan Residential kemungkinan akan

cenderung Flat

 Ada potensi naik pada BBCA dan BBRI begitupun

dengan BSDE, LPKR dan SMRA

 BSDE dan SMRA sangat mungkin Bottoming

mengakhiri ST Downtrend

Cenderung Bergerak Flat

Interest Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data

Sub-Sector LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value Banking BBCA New Uptrend Buy Now 48 Banking BBNI Downtrend Still Sell 29 Banking BBRI Downtrend Buy Now 16 Banking BBTN Uptrend Still Sell 38 Banking BMRI Downtrend Sell Now 36 Residential ASRI Downtrend Sell Now 35 Residential BSDE Downtrend Alert Buy 26 Residential LPKR Downtrend Buy Now 24 Residential MYRX Downtrend Alert Buy 0 Residential PWON Downtrend Sell Now 56 Residential SMRA Downtrend Buy Now 44 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 1D Gain 1D Loss 5D Gain 5D Loss Volume Above Previous Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Both

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Top Buy Signals in Market Chartist Stock Universe

Top Sell Signals in Market Chartist Stock Universe

Top Buy and Sell Signals

Stochastic Oscillator and Bollinger Band

LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value Last Price 1D %Ch 5D %Ch 20D %Ch 20D %Ch Relative Perform. Supp.2 Supp.1 Resist.1 Resist.2 BBCA New Uptrend Buy Now 48 13,150 - 0.38 0.38 (1.50) Outperform 12,920 13,030 13,230 13,320

INDF New Uptrend Buy Now 59 7,125 1.06 (1.04) (0.70) 9.62 Outperform 6,960 7,040 7,190 7,260

UNVR New Uptrend Buy Now 61 44,400 0.23 (1.66) 2.42 6.79 Outperform 43,300 43,850 44,750 45,100

BBRI Downtrend Buy Now 16 9,875 (0.25) (4.59) (6.84) (16.84) Underperform 9,660 9,770 9,970 10,060

LPKR Downtrend Buy Now 24 935 1.08 (7.88) (10.10) (6.03) Underperform 890 910 950 970

SIMP New Uptrend Alert Buy 74 515 0.98 6.40 1.98 41.87 Outperform 500 510 520 530

*SO : Stochastic Oscillator

LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value Last Price 1D %Ch 5D %Ch 20D %Ch 20D %Ch Relative Perform. Supp.2 Supp.1 Resist.1 Resist.2 ICBP Uptrend Warning Sell 100 15,600 0.32 1.63 4.70 2.63 Outperform 15,430 15,520 15,640 15,680

LSIP Downtrend Sell Now 59 1,535 (1.29) - (10.76) 1.32 Underperform 1,460 1,500 1,560 1,590

ASRI Downtrend Sell Now 35 366 (3.68) (3.68) (5.18) 8.93 Underperform 350 360 380 390

PGAS Downtrend Sell Now 31 2,310 (2.94) (6.10) (15.54) (7.41) Underperform 2,220 2,270 2,380 2,440

ITMG Uptrend Warning Sell 88 8,375 0.90 6.69 17.54 73.40 Outperform 8,090 8,230 8,480 8,590

INAF Uptrend Warning Sell 88 890 4.09 11.95 18.67 184.35 Outperform 790 840 930 970

MNCN Uptrend Warning Sell 77 2,300 2.68 6.98 8.24 66.06 Outperform 2,190 2,240 2,360 2,430

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Buy List

Today’s Recommendation

 ICBP (Rp15,600) : Taking Profit

 ADHI (Rp2,430) : Cut Loss

 AKRA (Rp6,125) : Repeat Buy – TP

@ 7,200

Buy List Condition

 ASII dan LSIP berpotensi turun terbatas

 INDF dan KLBF berpeluang naik

MC Trading Recommendation

Recommendation : Buy / Repeat Buy / Upgrade TP / Downgrade TP / Taking Profit / Taking Profit Below Estimate / Cut Loss

Stock Latest Call Date 1st Call Date 1st Call Open Price Latest Close % Change Latest Est. Target Price % Upside Potential

AKRA 16-May-16 27-Apr-16 6,600 6,125 -7.2% 7,200 17.6% ASII 28-Apr-16 28-Apr-16 6,850 6,325 -7.7% 7,100 12.3% INDF 28-Apr-16 18-Feb-16 6,600 7,125 8.0% 7,300 2.5% KLBF 13-May-16 7-Apr-16 1,425 1,320 -7.4% 1,500 13.6% LSIP 4-May-16 4-May-16 1,495 1,535 2.7% 1,600 4.2%

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 Market Chartist perkirakan kenaikan ICBP masih mungkin menjadi Technical Rebound dan berpotensi segera

mengakhiri Technical Rebound di sekitar 15,600an

 Namun secara jangka menengah, ICBP memiliki peluang untuk berada di awal Upswing menuju 16,600

ICBP (Rp15,600)

(15)

 ADHI telah dua kali Breakdown Key Support yaitu di 2,555 dan 2,475 sehingga sangat mungkin ADHI

berada dalam ST/MT Downtrend

ADHI (Rp2,430)

(16)

 Market Chartist perkirakan AKRA akan segera mengakhir MT Downtrend sejak Feb’16 di area 5,800 – 6,100

 Ada potensi AKRA bergerak naik (ST Uptrend) sebagai Technical Rebound namun terbuka peluang untuk

membentuk Upswing dengan potensi melebihi 8,450

AKRA (Rp6,125)

(17)

Historical List

Stock Call Action Call Date Open Price in Call Date Prev. Close 1st Call Date 1st Call Open Price Latest Est. Target Price

ADHI Cut Loss 16-May-16 New 2,430 25-Feb-16 2,600 2,700 AKRA Repeat Buy 16-May-16 New 6,125 27-Apr-16 6,600 7,200 ICBP Taking Profit 16-May-16 New 15,600 28-Apr-16 14,925 15,600 KLBF Repeat Buy 13-May-16 1,315 1,315 7-Apr-16 1,425 1,500 TLKM Taking Profit 12-May-16 3,710 3,720 2-May-16 3,410 3,750 ADRO Cut Loss 11-May-16 670 665 17-Mar-16 745 800

AKRA Downgrade TP 11-May-16 6,475 6,450 27-Apr-16 6,600 7,200 ADHI Downgrade TP 10-May-16 2,570 2,580 25-Feb-16 2,600 2,900 ASRI Cut Loss 10-May-16 368 370 25-Apr-16 410 440 KLBF Repeat Buy 9-May-16 1,305 1,340 7-Apr-16 1,425 1,500 CPIN TP Below Est. TP 4-May-16 3,700 3,660 5-Apr-16 3,575 3,800 LSIP Buy 4-May-16 1,495 1,505 4-May-16 1,495 1,600 SRIL Cut Loss 2-May-16 290 288 6-Apr-16 304 320 TLKM Buy 2-May-16 3,410 3,550 2-May-16 3,410 3,750 ADRO Repeat Buy 29-Apr-16 730 735 17-Mar-16 745 800

CPIN Repeat Buy 29-Apr-16 3,740 3,745 5-Apr-16 3,575 3,800 ADHI Downgrade TP 28-Apr-16 2,745 2,745 25-Feb-16 2,600 2,950 ASII Buy 28-Apr-16 6,850 6,825 - - -ICBP Buy 28-Apr-16 14,925 14,925 - - -INDF Downgrade TP 28-Apr-16 6,850 6,850 18-Feb-16 6,600 7,700 AKRA Buy 27-Apr-16 6,600 6,600 27-Apr-16 New 7,200 CPIN Repeat Buy 27-Apr-16 3,700 3,735 5-Apr-16 3,575 3,800 SRIL Repeat Buy 26-Apr-16 309 306 6-Apr-16 304 320 TLKM Taking Profit 26-Apr-16 3,755 3,780 21-Apr-16 3,610 3,850 ASRI Buy 25-Apr-16 410 410 25-Apr-16 New 440 INDF Repeat Buy 22-Apr-16 7,250 7,250 18-Feb-16 6,600 7,700 KLBF Repeat Buy 22-Apr-16 1,410 1,410 7-Apr-16 1,425 1,500 ASRI Taking Profit 21-Apr-16 419 418 12-Apr-16 390 420 BSDE Taking Profit 21-Apr-16 1,980 1,970 29-Mar-16 1,825 2,000 TLKM Buy 21-Apr-16 3,610 3,585 21-Apr-16 New 3,850

Buy 47 Repeat Buy 49 Upgrade TP 13 Downgrade TP 19 Taking Profit 28 67% TP Below Est. TP 2 5% Cut Loss 12 29%

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Thank You…

Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others.Underno circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia

Menara Imperium, 21

st

floor

Rasuna Said Kav. 1

Jakarta 12980, Indonesia

Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe

Market Chartist

makky.dandytra@Samuel.co.id

+6221 285 48382 (Direct)

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