DAILY MARKET CHARTS
Awal Technical Rebound
Executive Summary
Sinyal Sell masih mendominasi sehingga tekanan jual masih sangat mungkin terjadi
Negative Return masih mendominasi saham LQ45. Suasana semakin negatif karena rata – rata saham LQ45
berada di bawah harga terendah dalam 5 hari (seminggu) serta harga terendah dalam sebulan
Weekly Stochastic Oscillator terindikasi memberikan sinyal Alert Buy di dekat area Oversold. Market Chartist
melihat hal tersebut sebagai indikasikan bahwa masih ada peluang Technical Rebound
Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG membentuk Bottoming di area 4,730 – 4,760 untuk kemudian naik
mendekati 4,850 di minggu ini
Dominasi sinyal Sell dan Downtrend serta hampir seluruh counter turun pada hari Jum’at, Commodities
Related perlu diwaspadai hari ini
Penurunan counter yang berhubungan dengan bangunan konstruksi berpotensi terbatas sedangkan Infra
lain cenderung Peak
Consumer Related kembali menjadi defensive stock dan layak menjadi pilihan namun tidak dalam waktu
dekat karena terdominasi Overbought
Bank dan Residential kemungkinan akan cenderung Flat
Top Buy Signals : BBCA, INDF, UNVR, BBRI, LPKR dan SIMP
Top Sell Signals : ICBP, LSIP, ASRI, PGAS, ITMG, INAF dan MNC
Today’s Recommendation :
ICBP (Rp15,600) : Taking Profit
ADHI (Rp2,430) : Cut Loss
Bursa U.S ditutup turun dengan rentang -1.05% s.d -0.41% sedangkan bursa Eropa ditutup naik dengan
rentang 0.44% s.d 0.92%
Perlemahan Rupiah (Rp13,315) berpotensi berlanjut mendekati Rp13,400. Ada potensi Rupiah terus
melemah menuju Rp13,600 ketika terjadi Breakout (USDIDR) Resistance di Rp13,400 tersebut
USD Index (94.6) mendekati Resistance penting di 95. Market Chartist perkirakan USD Index sangat
mungkin terus menguat di atas 95, mendekati 96
Brent (USD47.8) terus naik dalam Upswing dengan target menuju USD50 sedangkan WTI (46.3)
berpeluang melanjutkan Upswing menuju USD48
Market Matters
Market Cap of LQ45 Stocks
Number of LQ45 Stocks
Summary
Sinyal Sell masih mendominasi sehingga tekanan jual masih sangat mungkin terjadi
Perlu diperhatikan bahwa terjadinya dominasi Uptrend secara Market Cap dan dominasi Oversold
berdasarkan jumlah saham LQ45 dapat mengindikasikan potensi kenaikan pada IHSG serta menyarankan untuk memperhatikan Middle dan Small Cap
Perhatikan Middle dan Small Cap
MC’s Technical Setups Overview Of LQ45 Stocks in Daily Timeframe
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related
Gain/Loss of LQ45
LQ45 Position to High/Low
Summary
Negative Return masih mendominasi saham LQ45
Suasana semakin negatif karena rata – rata saham LQ45 berada di bawah harga terendah dalam 5 hari
(seminggu) serta harga terendah dalam sebulan
Kondisi Masih Negatif
MC’s Price Data Overview Of LQ45 Stocks in Daily Timeframe
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1D Gain 1D Loss 5D Gain 5D Loss 20D Gain 20D Loss 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Above Weekly High Below Weekly Low Above Monthly High Below Monthly Low
Weekly Stochastic Oscillator terindikasi memberikan sinyal Alert Buy di dekat area Oversold
Market Chartist melihat hal tersebut sebagai indikasikan bahwa masih ada peluang Technical Rebound
Masih Berpotensi Technical Rebound
Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG membentuk Bottoming di area 4,730 – 4,760 untuk kemudian naik
mendekati 4,850 di minggu ini
Bottoming Mengawali Technical Rebound
Dominasi sinyal Sell dan Downtrend serta hampir
seluruh counter turun pada hari Jum’at,
Commodities Related perlu diwaspadai hari ini
Namun melihat lebih detail, Market Chartist
perkirakan terjadi Microscopic Oversold pada sub-sector Coal dan CPO sehingga ada peluang untuk turun terbatas membentuk Bottom terutama PTBA dan LSIP
Mineral lebih memiliki harapan karena memasuki
Oversold area. Market Chartist menyukai INCO
Pantau Dengan Waspada
Commodities Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 1D Gain 1D Loss 5D Gain 5D Loss Volume Above Previous Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Both
Sub-Sector LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value
Coal ADRO Downtrend Sell Now 37
Coal PTBA Downtrend Sell Now 30
Coal UNTR Downtrend Sell Now 13
CPO AALI Downtrend Sell Now 38
CPO LSIP Downtrend Sell Now 59
CPO SSMS Downtrend Still Sell 12
Mineral ANTM Downtrend Sell Now 10
Mineral INCO Downtrend Sell Now 29
Consumer Related kembali menjadi defensive
stock dan layak menjadi pilihan namun tidak dalam waktu dekat karena terdominasi
Overbought
Perlu diwaspadai penurunan pada Cigarettes,
Media dan Retail
Namun paska penurunan drastis, ASII dan CPIN
dapat dipantau dalam jangka pendek
FMCG kemungkinan naik namun waspadai ICBP
Layak Menjadi Pilihan
Consumer Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 1D Gain 1D Loss 5D Gain 5D Loss Volume Above Previous Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Both
Sub-Sector LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value
Auto ASII Downtrend Still Sell 23
Cigarettes GGRM Uptrend Sell Now 72 Cigarettes HMSP Uptrend Warning Sell 83
FCMG ICBP Uptrend Warning Sell 100
FCMG INDF New Uptrend Buy Now 59
FCMG KLBF Downtrend Still Buy 37
FCMG UNVR New Uptrend Buy Now 61
Healthcare SILO New Uptrend Still Buy 83 Media BMTR New Uptrend Warning Sell 75 Media MNCN Uptrend Warning Sell 77 Media SCMA New Uptrend Buy Now 62 Poultry CPIN Downtrend Sell Now 6
Penurunan counter yang berhubungan dengan
bangunan konstruksi berpotensi terbatas sedangkan Infra lain cenderung Peak
Market Chartist perkirakan sangat mungkin
terjadi Selling Climax pada Cement dan ADHI sehingga penurunan berpotensi telah terbatas
Construction lain seperti PTPP dan WIKA sangat
mungkin naik namun WIKA berpeluang turun
Market Chartist perkirakan AKRA berpeluang
Bottoming
TBIG kemungkinan besar akan Flat membentuk
Selling Climax Pada Cement, AKRA Bottoming
Infrastructure Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data
Sub-Sector LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value
Cement INTP Downtrend Buy Now 5
Cement SMGR Downtrend Still Sell 12 Construction ADHI Downtrend Still Sell 10 Construction PTPP Downtrend Buy Now 48 Construction WIKA Downtrend Still Sell 20 Construction WSKT Uptrend Still Buy 65 Oil&Gas AKRA Downtrend Still Sell 57
Tower TBIG Uptrend Buy Now 89
Telecom TLKM Uptrend Sell Now 71
Toll JSMR Uptrend Still Buy 88
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 1D Gain 1D Loss 5D Gain 5D Loss Volume Above Previous Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Both
Bank dan Residential kemungkinan akan
cenderung Flat
Ada potensi naik pada BBCA dan BBRI begitupun
dengan BSDE, LPKR dan SMRA
BSDE dan SMRA sangat mungkin Bottoming
mengakhiri ST Downtrend
Cenderung Bergerak Flat
Interest Related of LQ45 – Multiple Technical Analysis Data
Sub-Sector LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value Banking BBCA New Uptrend Buy Now 48 Banking BBNI Downtrend Still Sell 29 Banking BBRI Downtrend Buy Now 16 Banking BBTN Uptrend Still Sell 38 Banking BMRI Downtrend Sell Now 36 Residential ASRI Downtrend Sell Now 35 Residential BSDE Downtrend Alert Buy 26 Residential LPKR Downtrend Buy Now 24 Residential MYRX Downtrend Alert Buy 0 Residential PWON Downtrend Sell Now 56 Residential SMRA Downtrend Buy Now 44 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% Uptrend Related Downtrend Related Buy Related Sell Related Oversold Related Overbought Related 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 1D Gain 1D Loss 5D Gain 5D Loss Volume Above Previous Volume Above Monthly Avg Volume Above Both
Top Buy Signals in Market Chartist Stock Universe
Top Sell Signals in Market Chartist Stock Universe
Top Buy and Sell Signals
Stochastic Oscillator and Bollinger Band
LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value Last Price 1D %Ch 5D %Ch 20D %Ch 20D %Ch Relative Perform. Supp.2 Supp.1 Resist.1 Resist.2 BBCA New Uptrend Buy Now 48 13,150 - 0.38 0.38 (1.50) Outperform 12,920 13,030 13,230 13,320
INDF New Uptrend Buy Now 59 7,125 1.06 (1.04) (0.70) 9.62 Outperform 6,960 7,040 7,190 7,260
UNVR New Uptrend Buy Now 61 44,400 0.23 (1.66) 2.42 6.79 Outperform 43,300 43,850 44,750 45,100
BBRI Downtrend Buy Now 16 9,875 (0.25) (4.59) (6.84) (16.84) Underperform 9,660 9,770 9,970 10,060
LPKR Downtrend Buy Now 24 935 1.08 (7.88) (10.10) (6.03) Underperform 890 910 950 970
SIMP New Uptrend Alert Buy 74 515 0.98 6.40 1.98 41.87 Outperform 500 510 520 530
*SO : Stochastic Oscillator
LQ45 Trend Stoch. Osc. SO Value Last Price 1D %Ch 5D %Ch 20D %Ch 20D %Ch Relative Perform. Supp.2 Supp.1 Resist.1 Resist.2 ICBP Uptrend Warning Sell 100 15,600 0.32 1.63 4.70 2.63 Outperform 15,430 15,520 15,640 15,680
LSIP Downtrend Sell Now 59 1,535 (1.29) - (10.76) 1.32 Underperform 1,460 1,500 1,560 1,590
ASRI Downtrend Sell Now 35 366 (3.68) (3.68) (5.18) 8.93 Underperform 350 360 380 390
PGAS Downtrend Sell Now 31 2,310 (2.94) (6.10) (15.54) (7.41) Underperform 2,220 2,270 2,380 2,440
ITMG Uptrend Warning Sell 88 8,375 0.90 6.69 17.54 73.40 Outperform 8,090 8,230 8,480 8,590
INAF Uptrend Warning Sell 88 890 4.09 11.95 18.67 184.35 Outperform 790 840 930 970
MNCN Uptrend Warning Sell 77 2,300 2.68 6.98 8.24 66.06 Outperform 2,190 2,240 2,360 2,430
Buy List
Today’s Recommendation
ICBP (Rp15,600) : Taking Profit
ADHI (Rp2,430) : Cut Loss
AKRA (Rp6,125) : Repeat Buy – TP
@ 7,200
Buy List Condition
ASII dan LSIP berpotensi turun terbatas
INDF dan KLBF berpeluang naik
MC Trading Recommendation
Recommendation : Buy / Repeat Buy / Upgrade TP / Downgrade TP / Taking Profit / Taking Profit Below Estimate / Cut Loss
Stock Latest Call Date 1st Call Date 1st Call Open Price Latest Close % Change Latest Est. Target Price % Upside Potential
AKRA 16-May-16 27-Apr-16 6,600 6,125 -7.2% 7,200 17.6% ASII 28-Apr-16 28-Apr-16 6,850 6,325 -7.7% 7,100 12.3% INDF 28-Apr-16 18-Feb-16 6,600 7,125 8.0% 7,300 2.5% KLBF 13-May-16 7-Apr-16 1,425 1,320 -7.4% 1,500 13.6% LSIP 4-May-16 4-May-16 1,495 1,535 2.7% 1,600 4.2%
Market Chartist perkirakan kenaikan ICBP masih mungkin menjadi Technical Rebound dan berpotensi segera
mengakhiri Technical Rebound di sekitar 15,600an
Namun secara jangka menengah, ICBP memiliki peluang untuk berada di awal Upswing menuju 16,600
ICBP (Rp15,600)
ADHI telah dua kali Breakdown Key Support yaitu di 2,555 dan 2,475 sehingga sangat mungkin ADHI
berada dalam ST/MT Downtrend
ADHI (Rp2,430)
Market Chartist perkirakan AKRA akan segera mengakhir MT Downtrend sejak Feb’16 di area 5,800 – 6,100
Ada potensi AKRA bergerak naik (ST Uptrend) sebagai Technical Rebound namun terbuka peluang untuk
membentuk Upswing dengan potensi melebihi 8,450
AKRA (Rp6,125)
Historical List
Stock Call Action Call Date Open Price in Call Date Prev. Close 1st Call Date 1st Call Open Price Latest Est. Target Price
ADHI Cut Loss 16-May-16 New 2,430 25-Feb-16 2,600 2,700 AKRA Repeat Buy 16-May-16 New 6,125 27-Apr-16 6,600 7,200 ICBP Taking Profit 16-May-16 New 15,600 28-Apr-16 14,925 15,600 KLBF Repeat Buy 13-May-16 1,315 1,315 7-Apr-16 1,425 1,500 TLKM Taking Profit 12-May-16 3,710 3,720 2-May-16 3,410 3,750 ADRO Cut Loss 11-May-16 670 665 17-Mar-16 745 800
AKRA Downgrade TP 11-May-16 6,475 6,450 27-Apr-16 6,600 7,200 ADHI Downgrade TP 10-May-16 2,570 2,580 25-Feb-16 2,600 2,900 ASRI Cut Loss 10-May-16 368 370 25-Apr-16 410 440 KLBF Repeat Buy 9-May-16 1,305 1,340 7-Apr-16 1,425 1,500 CPIN TP Below Est. TP 4-May-16 3,700 3,660 5-Apr-16 3,575 3,800 LSIP Buy 4-May-16 1,495 1,505 4-May-16 1,495 1,600 SRIL Cut Loss 2-May-16 290 288 6-Apr-16 304 320 TLKM Buy 2-May-16 3,410 3,550 2-May-16 3,410 3,750 ADRO Repeat Buy 29-Apr-16 730 735 17-Mar-16 745 800
CPIN Repeat Buy 29-Apr-16 3,740 3,745 5-Apr-16 3,575 3,800 ADHI Downgrade TP 28-Apr-16 2,745 2,745 25-Feb-16 2,600 2,950 ASII Buy 28-Apr-16 6,850 6,825 - - -ICBP Buy 28-Apr-16 14,925 14,925 - - -INDF Downgrade TP 28-Apr-16 6,850 6,850 18-Feb-16 6,600 7,700 AKRA Buy 27-Apr-16 6,600 6,600 27-Apr-16 New 7,200 CPIN Repeat Buy 27-Apr-16 3,700 3,735 5-Apr-16 3,575 3,800 SRIL Repeat Buy 26-Apr-16 309 306 6-Apr-16 304 320 TLKM Taking Profit 26-Apr-16 3,755 3,780 21-Apr-16 3,610 3,850 ASRI Buy 25-Apr-16 410 410 25-Apr-16 New 440 INDF Repeat Buy 22-Apr-16 7,250 7,250 18-Feb-16 6,600 7,700 KLBF Repeat Buy 22-Apr-16 1,410 1,410 7-Apr-16 1,425 1,500 ASRI Taking Profit 21-Apr-16 419 418 12-Apr-16 390 420 BSDE Taking Profit 21-Apr-16 1,980 1,970 29-Mar-16 1,825 2,000 TLKM Buy 21-Apr-16 3,610 3,585 21-Apr-16 New 3,850
Buy 47 Repeat Buy 49 Upgrade TP 13 Downgrade TP 19 Taking Profit 28 67% TP Below Est. TP 2 5% Cut Loss 12 29%
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Thank You…
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