party and other “Yes” parties failing to receive the majority vote in parliament if the elections were held today. Likewise, the number of supporters of Catalan
independence has diminished to 39% of the population, comparable to 49% in 2012 (Baròmetre d’Opinió Política: Jan. 2015). Yet Más and his allies vow to achieve their goal of an independent Catalan state,
Likewise, even if the separatists complete their 18 month plan for separation, would Catalonia remain in the EU? Would other countries, recognize its
sovereignty? Would corporations and citizens boycott Catalonia as has been
promised? Would the economic transition be successful? These questions are being asked by both parties in an attempt to understand what an independent Catalonia would look like. Now that Scotland’s referendum failed, Catalonia is at the fore-front of European separatist politics. The case of Catalonia will set a precedent for the dozens of separatist movements popping up all over Europe. If Catalonia declares independence from Spain, the European and world community will have to make a decision whether or not to recognize the new state as legitimate. If they do, then the EU must decide the next course of action in regards to admitting Catalonia into the organization.
Yet, even despite these obstacles, it could be possible for the movement to succeed. The factors that strengthen Catalan nationalism are the same factors that could eventually lead to the success of separatism. Though public support seems to be wavering, continued hostility from the Spanish government could lead to a greater distrust of national politicians. Similarly, the economy in Spain continues to
struggle despite the recovery of most of the rest of Europe. Support for Más and the CiU could rise again if Spain’s economy continues to flounder as more and more Catalans seek a different option. Likewise, Rajoy’s austerity measures are unpopular in Spain and it is likely the PP will lose many seats (if not their entire majority) during the national election in December 2015. If the PSOE defeats the PP, an independent Catalan state may have a chance of being recognized. The PSOE has been known to be more receptive to Catalan demands for autonomy and could be more willing to negotiate a legal independence referendum. Though PSOE leaders are not supportive of Catalonia leaving Spain, they might be more willing to negotiate reforms to satisfy separatists. Furthermore, if the Catalan nationalist parties gain more seats in parliament during the national elections, they could influence politics at the national level by encouraging a more amicable split with Spain and thus increasing the likelihood of EU recognition and acceptance. Just as the recession and the court ruling triggered the shift to separatism, a similar event occurring in the next few months could cause a shift in either direction. Public support for separatism could fall rapidly or rise quickly in response to a hypothetical triggering event.
In reality, the exact future of the movement is unknown. However it cannot be denied that Catalan nationalism is no longer simply a Catalan issue. Thousands of years of political, economic, and cultural foundation building have elevated Catalan nationalism to a global scale, forcing Catalonia’s neighbors to recognize its demands for autonomy. The movement is truly unique with even the closest comparable movement, the Scottish nationalist movement, showing distinct differences.
Catalonia is in the position to set a precedent not only for the other regions of Spain, but for other regions of Europe. Actions taken by Catalonia, Spain, and the EU will determine the course of action for Flanders, the Basque Country, and even Veneto in the future. The formation of an independent Catalonia will finally bring truth to the statement so many Catalans have been saying for decades “Catalunya no es
Espanya.”
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