This section discusses in depth the developments in the global economy and in global trade together with the significance of maritime transport and its interrelations. In this regard, various data on global trade and international maritime trade are presented and reviewed.
After the global financial crisis in late 2008, 2009 witnessed the worst global recession in over seven decades since World War II. Global GDP shrank by 2.2 per cent, with an approximately 13 per cent decline in the total volume of global trade in 2009 and only a 1.8 per cent increase in global economic output between 2007 and 2010 (see Tables 3.1 and 3.2;
UNCTAD, 2010, 2013). During these crisis years, the trade patterns in both developed and developing countries altered. In parallel, the import and export volumes of developed economies remained below their pre-crisis lev- els. On the other hand, imports and exports from emerging market econo- mies were 26 and 22 per cent respectively above their pre-crisis levels.
The global economy continues to struggle to return to a strong posi- tion. World output growth was just 2.2 per cent in 2012, and this remained approximately the same in 2013, with 3 per cent expected in 2014 (UNC- TAD, 2013). Moreover, the total volume of merchandise exports dropped seven times more rapidly than global GDP. These changes were related to globalized production processes and the increased trade in parts and com- ponents, the deepening and widening of global supply chains, the product composition of the fall in demand for consumer goods and durables and limited trade finance. Rapid declines in trade volumes also resulted from the trade in goods dropping faster than that in services. Further, weak consumer confidence depressed the retail industry, while the low level of capital invest- ments and slowdowns in the real estate and housing sectors continued in advanced economies.
A global recovery took place by early 2010, with an expansion of 4.1 per cent in GDP and a growth of 9.5 per cent in the total volume of trade based on World Trade Organization estimates of 180 economies around the world. The annual increase in exports from developed economies was about 13 per cent in volume terms in 2010, while the annual increase in shipments from developing economies, Asian countries (14.7 per cent) and China (29.1 per cent) in particular, rose by 16 per cent as the world started to emerge
T aBLE
3.1Global economic gr owth 2005 –201 4 ( annual per centage change)
region/Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013a World 3.5 4.1 4.0 1.5 −2.2 4.1 2.8 2.2 2.1 Developed countries 2.4 2.8 2.6 0.0 −3.8 2.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 of which: Japan1.31.72.2−1.0−5.54.7−0.6 1.9 1.9 United States3.12.71.9−0.3−3.12.41.8 2.2 1.7 European Union (EU-27)2.13.33.2 0.3−4.32.11.6−0.3−0.2 of which: Euro area1.73.33.0 0.4−4.42.01.5−0.6−0.7 France1.82.52.3−0.1−3.11.72.0 0.0−0.2 Germany0.73.73.3 1.1−5.14.23.0 0.7 0.3 Italy0.92.21.7−1.2−5.51.70.4−2.4−1.8 United Kingdom2.82.63.6−1.0−4.01.80.9 0.2 1.1 South-east europe and CiS 6.5 8.3 8.6 5.2 −6.6 4.5 4.5 3.0 2.7 South-east Europe4.74.85.5 3.7−4.30.01.1−1.4 0.3 CIS6.78.78.9 5.3−6.84.94.8 3.4 2.9 of which: Russian Federation6.48.28.5 5.2−7.84.54.3 3.4 2.5 Developing countries 6.8 7.6 7.9 5.3 2.4 7.9 5.9 4.6 4.7 Africa5.85.96.2 5.2 2.84.91.0 5.4 4.0 North Africa, excl. Sudan5.15.44.7 4.6 3.24.1−6.1 7.8 3.6 (Continued)region/Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013a Sub-Saharan Africa, excl. South Africa6.76.57.76.6 4.96.44.85.35.4 South Africa5.35.65.53.6−1.53.13.52.51.7 Latin America and the Caribbean4.55.65.64.0−1.95.94.33.03.1 Caribbean7.49.45.83.1−0.12.62.42.52.7 Central America, excl. Mexico4.86.47.04.1−0.24.15.25.04.1 Mexico3.25.23.31.2−6.05.54.03.92.8 South America5.05.56.65.5−0.26.44.62.53.2 of which: Brazil3.24.06.15.2−0.37.52.70.92.5 Asia7.88.69.05.8 3.98.97.15.05.2 East Asia8.69.911.06.9 5.99.57.76.06.1 of which: China11.312.714.29.6 9.210.49.37.87.6 South Asia8.08.38.95.2 4.79.46.63.04.3 of which: India9.09.410.16.2 5.011.27.73.85.2 South-east Asia5.86.16.64.3 1.28.04.55.44.7 West Asia6.87.04.63.8−1.77.07.13.23.5 Oceania3.42.93.52.7 2.33.64.34.12.7 SOuRCE UN/DESA-Department of Economic and Social Aff airs, 2013; UN, 2010, 2013; UNCTAD, 2010, 2013 NOTES a. Partly estimated.
T aBLE
3.1Global economic gr owth 2005 –201 4 ( annual per centage change) ( Continued )
T aBLE
3.2Gr owth in the volume
aof mer chandise tr ade, by geogr aphical r egion, 2007 –2012 (annual per centage change)
exports Countries/regions imports 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 5.8 3.9 6.8 6.8 3.2 8.6 8.7 4.8 2.4 15.0 21.8 6.3 15.2 6.9 2.03.0 2.8 4.9 5.5 2.5 0.8 4.2 –2.8 –0.6 7.3 14.9 10.7 2.1 7.4
–13.3 –15.5 –24.8 –14.0 –14.9 –14.4 –9.7 –9.5 –7.4 –10.9 –14.1 –6.1 –6.8 –10.0 –4.8
13.9 13.0 27.5 15.4 11.6 11.3 16.0 8.8 8.3 24.1 29.1 10.0 14.0 18.6 5.7
5.2 4.9 –0.6 7.2 5.5 4.2 6.0 –8.3 4.6 10.4 13.0 8.8 14.2 4.4 6.5
1.8 0.4 –1.0 4.1 –0.2 1.0 3.6 5.7 2.2 5.2 7.2 –10.2 –2.5 2.2 6.9
WOrLD Developed countries of which: Japan United States European Union (EU–27) Transition economies Developing countries of which: Africa Latin America and the Caribbean east asia of which: China South asia of which : India South–east asia West asia
6.6 3.7 0.8 1.1 4.8 26.1 10.6 11.2 11.6 10.2 14.1 10.9 16.9 6.7 16.7
2.2 0.0 –0.9 –3.7 1.1 16.0 5.3 11.6 8.6 0.6 2.4 7.2 10.4 8.0 8.4
–13.6 –14.6 –12.2 –16.4 –14.5 –28.2 –10.2 –6.2 –17.9 –5.3 –1.1 –5.5 –0.9 –15.8 –14.2
13.8 10.8 10.1 14.8 9.6 15.9 18.8 8.4 22.5 22.7 25.4 14.0 13.8 22.0 8.4
5.3 3.4 4.2 3.8 2.8 15.7 7.4 2.8 10.8 7.4 10.3 6.0 9.1 6.7 8.1
1.6 –0.5 3.7 2.8 –2.8 3.9 4.5 8.0 2.5 4.3 5.9 2.0 5.8 6.0 5.8 SOuRCE UNCTAD, 2013; UNCTAD, 2010 NOTE a. Data on trade volumes are derived from international merchandise trade values defl ated by UNCTAD unit value indices.
Introduction 36
from recession. This recovery played a crucial role in the expansion of the total volume of global trade and improvements in the global economy.
However, the global recovery was slower than previous post-recession recoveries, and it was particularly challenged by the uncertainties, fragile economic conditions and political problems and transformations taking place in several Middle Eastern countries at the beginning of 2011. As a result, the annual increase in exports from developed economies dropped to 0.4 per cent in volume terms in 2012, while that from developing econo- mies (Asian countries 1.5 per cent, China 7.2 per cent) was up 3.6 per cent (UNCTAD, 2013).
A growth in international trade positively affects the growth in interna- tional transport services – the second largest category of commercial services after the tourism sector – because of the movement and carriage of goods from suppliers and producers to customers as end-users. Maritime trans- port services are directly driven by global economic growth and the need to carry goods internationally, and thus they are subject to developments in the global economy. In other words, global economic growth directly influences international trade, which, in turn, directly affects transport services and therefore the world’s seaborne trade volumes (as a measure of demand for shipping, port and logistics services). Maritime trade is the most commonly used transport mode in international trade, representing about 85 per cent of total transport volume. As demand for both maritime transport services and logistics services derives from global economic growth and the need to carry out international trade, the global shipping industry and maritime transport activities (notably seaborne trade) could not escape from the con- tractions in global GDP and international trade volumes in 2009.
In parallel with these economic declines and following the collapse in economic growth and international trade, the total volume of international seaborne trade shrank by 4.5 per cent in 2009. The total volume of goods loaded was only 7.8 billion tons in 2009 compared with 8.2 billion tons in 2008. Similar to merchandise trade, however, world trade in commercial services grew in 2012, and the total volume of goods loaded by using mari- time transport services increased to 9.1 billion tons in 2012 (see Table 3.3).
Developing countries continued to have the largest share of global seaborne trade with approximately 61 per cent of all goods loaded and 55 per cent of all goods unloaded, reflecting their increasingly leading role in driving global trade. The share of developed economies in global goods loaded and unloaded was 32 and 44 per cent respectively, while transition economies accounted for only 6.4 and 0.8 per cent respectively (UNCTAD, 2010).
After the recession in 2008, world shipments of tanker trade volumes, including crude oil, petroleum products and liquefied natural gas (LNG), fell by 3 per cent in 2009. As also illustrated in Table 3.3, total tanker cargoes loaded amounted to 2.73 billion tons in 2008 and this dropped to 2.64 bil- lion tons in 2009, before slightly increasing to 2.83 billion tons in 2012. The major oil producers including the OPEC countries of western Asia were the largest loading areas for crude oil together with transition economies, with
International Maritime Trade and Logistics 37
South-east Asia, Central Africa, the northern and eastern coasts of South America, North and West Africa and Central America the major producers and consumers of oil and gas. The major unloading areas included North America, Europe, Japan and South-east Asia. With the strong demand in oil from China, India, western Asia and Latin America, crude oil shipments to these regions started to grow rapidly. In terms of the total volume of cargoes loaded regardless of their type, global seaborne trade loaded dropped from 8.2 billion tons in 2008 to 7.8 billion tons in 2009, before rising to 9.17 bil- lion tons in 2012 (UNCTAD, 2013). The total volumes of world seaborne trade by type of cargo loaded and unloaded together with country groups between 2006 and 2012 and world merchant fl eet tonnage surplus by main type of vessel in the maritime transport industry are illustrated in Tables 3.4 and 3.5 respectively.
The year 2009 was the most challenging in the history of the con- tainer industry with dramatic declines. Container trade volumes declined sharply by 9 per cent, totalling 124 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU)
TaBLE
3.3Development of international seaborne trade 1970–2012 (millions of tons loaded)
Year Oil Main bulks a Other dry cargo Total (all cargoes)
1970 1,442 448 676 2,566
1980 1,871 796 1,037 3,704
1990 1,755 968 1,285 4,008
2000 2,163 1,288 2,533 5,984
2006 2,698 1,849 3,135 7,682
2007 2,747 1,972 3,265 7,983
2008 2,732 2,079 3,399 8,210
2009 2,642 2,085 3,131 7,858
2010 2,772 2,335 3,302 8,409
2011 2,794 2,486 3,505 8,784
2012 2,836 2,665 3,664 9,165
SOuRCE Compiled by the UNCTAD secretariat on the basis of data supplied by reporting countries as published on the relevant government and port industry websites, and by specialist sources. The data for 2006 onwards have been revised and updated to refl ect improved reporting, including more recent fi gures and better information regarding the breakdown by cargo type.
NOTE
a. Iron ore, grain, coal, bauxite/alumina and phosphate. The data for 2006 onwards are based on Dry Bulk Trade Outlook produced by Clarkson Research Services Limited.
T aBLE
3.4W orld seaborne tr ade volumes by type of car go and country gr oup 2006– 2012
Country group Yeargoods loaded (millions of tons) goods unloaded (millions of tons) Total Crude products & gas Dry cargo Total Crude products & gas Dry cargo World
2006 7,682.31,783.4914.84,984.1 7,885.91,931.0894.25,060.8 2007 7,983.51,813.4933.55,236.6 8,136.11,995.5904.35,236.3 2008 8,210.11,785.2946.95,478.0 8,272.71,942.1964.15,366.5 2009 7,842.81,724.5924.65,193.6 7,908.41,877.8957.35,073.3 2010 8,408.91,787.7983.85,637.5 8,443.81,933.2979.25,531.4 2011 8,784.31,759.51034.25,990.5 8,797.71,896.51,037.75,863.5 2012 9,165.31,785.41050.96,329.0 9,183.71,928.71,054.96,200.1 Developed economies
2006 2,460.5132.9336.41,991.3 4,164.71,282.0535.52,347.2 2007 2,608.9135.1363.02,110.8 3,990.51,246.0524.02,220.5 2008 2,708.5129.0394.32,185.1 4,007.91,251.1523.82,233.0 2009 2,540.1118.6355.02,066.5 3,499.81,149.8529.41,820.6 2010 2,865.4135.9422.32,307.3 3,604.51,165.4522.61,916.5 2011 2,982.5117.5451.92,413.1 3,632.31,085.6581.31,965.4 2012 3,162.9121.6447.32,594.0 3,678.81,097.7573.72,007.5
Transition economies
2006 410.3123.141.3245.9 70.65.63.161.9 2007 407.9124.439.9243.7 76.87.33.566.0 2008 431.5138.236.7256.6 89.36.33.879.2 2009 501.8151.341.6309.0 60.56.13.051.4 2010 515.7150.245.9319.7 122.13.54.6114.0 2011 505.0132.642.0330.5 156.74.24.4148.1 2012 542.1136.641.1364.4 149.23.84.0141.4 Developing economies
2006 4,811.51,527.5537.12,747.0 3,650.6643.4355.52,651.6 2007 4,966.61,553.9530.72,882.0 4,068.9742.2376.82,949.8 2008 5,070.21,517.9515.93,036.4 4,175.5684.7436.53,054.3 2009 4,800.81,454.6528.02,818.2 4,348.1721.9424.83,201.3 2010 5,027.81,501.6515.63,010.5 4,717.3764.4452.03,500.9 2011 5,296.81,509.4540.43,247.0 5,008.8806.7452.13,750.0 2012 5,460.31,527.2562.53,370.6 5,355.7827.3477.24,051.2 africa
2006 704.0353.886.0264.2 357.441.039.9276.5 2007 708.9362.581.8264.6 375.945.545.0285.3 2008 741.9379.283.5279.3 366.144.844.2277.0 2009 682.1335.082.8264.4 365.643.742.7279.2 2010 754.0351.192.0310.9 416.942.740.5333.7 2011 723.7338.068.5317.2 378.237.846.3294.1 2012 787.3370.172.6344.6 407.735.951.7320.1 (Continued)
Country group Year
goods loaded (millions of tons) goods unloaded (millions of tons) Total Crude products & gas Dry cargo Total Crude products & gas Dry cargo americas
2006 1,030.7251.393.9686.5 373.449.660.1263.7 2007 1,067.1252.390.7724.2 415.976.064.0275.9 2008 1,112.2234.693.0784.6 433.874.266.9292.7 2009 1,050.6219.489.6741.7 387.074.265.4247.5 2010 1,172.6241.685.1846.0 448.769.974.7304.2 2011 1,239.2253.883.5901.9 508.371.173.9363.4 2012 1,287.2250.791.6944.9 538.577.579.4381.6 asia
2006 3,073.1921.2357.01,794.8 2,906.8552.7248.82,105.3 2007 3,187.1938.1358.11,890.8 3,263.6620.7260.82,382.1 2008 3,211.8902.7339.31,969.9 3,361.9565.6318.32,477.9 2009 3,061.7898.7355.51,807.5 3,582.4604.1313.12,665.2 2010 3,094.6907.5338.31,848.8 3,838.2651.8333.12,853.4 2011 3,326.7916.0388.22,022.6 4,108.8697.8328.03,082.9 2012 3,376.7904.7397.52,074.5 4,396.2713.8341.53,340.9 Oceania
2006 3.81.20.12.5 12.90.06.76.2 2007 3.50.90.12.5 13.50.07.06.5 2008 4.21.50.12.6 13.80.07.16.7 2009 6.31.50.24.6 13.10.03.69.5 2010 6.51.50.24.8 13.40.03.79.7 2011 7.11.60.25.3 13.50.03.99.6 2012 9.01.60.86.6 13.30.04.68.6 SOuRCE UNCTAD, 2013
T aBLE
3.4W orld seaborne tr ade volumes by type of car go and country gr oup 2006– 2012 ( Continued )
T aBLE
3.5W orld mer chant fl eet tonnage surplus, by main type of vessel, selected years
abetween 1990 and 2010 (in millions of dwt or millions of cubic meters )
1990 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 apr 2010 World tanker fl eet (dwt)266.2279.4298.3312.9367.4393.5414.04435.25438.33 Idle tanker fl eet (dwt)40.913.53.44.56.17.814.358.519.42 Share of idle fl eet in tanker fl eet (%)15.44.81.11.41.72.03.471.962.15 World dry bulk fl eet (dwt) 228.7247.7325.1340.0361.8393.5417.62452.52458.63 Idle dry bulk fl eet (dwt)19.43.82.12.03.43.63.682.644.00 Share of idle fl eet in dry bulk fl eet (%)8.51.50.60.60.90.90.880.580.87 World conventional general cargo fl eet (dwt) 63.659.343.645.044.743.844.5442.5340.54 Idle conventional general cargo fl eet (dwt)2.11.10.70.70.60.70.970.831.01 Share of idle fl eet in general cargo fl eet (%)3.31.91.61.61.41.62.181.952.49 World ro-ro fl eet (dwt) ............11.3710.9310.21 Idle ro-ro fl eet (dwt)............0.890.730.67 Share of idle fl eet in ro-ro fl eet (%)............7.836.686.56 (Continued)SOuRCE Compiled by the UNCTAD secretariat, on the basis of data from Lloyd’s Shipping Economist (various issues). NOTE a. End-of-year fi gures, except for 1990 and 2000, which are annual averages. This table excludes tankers and dry bulk carriers of less than 10,000 dwt and conventional general cargo/unitized vessels of less than 5,000 dwt.
1990 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 apr 2010 World vehicle carrier fl eet (dwt) ............11.2711.2010.72 Idle vehicle carrier fl eet (dwt)............0.240.550.42 Share of idle fl eet in vehicle carrier fl eet (%)............2.134.913.92 World LNg carrier fl eet (m3) ............44.4346.9049.29 Idle LNG carrier fl eet (m3)............5.871.290.77 Share of idle fl eet in LNG fl eet (%)............13.212.751.56 World LPg carrier fl eet (m3) ............11.5618.5019.05 Idle LPG carrier fl eet (m3)............0.940.100.13 Share of idle fl eet in LNG fl eet (%)............8.130.540.68
T aBLE
3.5W orld mer chant fl eet tonnage surplus, by main type of vessel, selected yearsa between 1990 an d 2010 (in millions of dwt or millions of cubic meters ) ( Continued )
T aBLE
3.6Car go fl ows on the major east –west container tr ade r outes 2008– 2012 ( millions of TEUs and annual per centage change)
Years asia–North america North america–europe North america–asia asia–europe europe–asia europe–North america 200813.43.36.913.55.23.3 200910.66.111.55.52.82.5 % change 2008–2009 20.9 84.8 66.7 59.3 46.2 24.2 201012.36.513.35.73.22.7 201112.46.614.16.23.42.8 201213.36.913.76.33.62.7 % change 2011–2012 7.3 4.5 2.8 1.6 5.9 3.6 SOuRCE www.containershipping.com, April–June 2013; European Liner Aff airs Association, 2010 Containerization International, August 2010T aBLE
3.7Container port tr affi c 200 4– 2012 ( million TEU)
economies/regions 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 East Asia & Pacifi c (developing only)102.496.2114.8139.5155.73147.75175.33192.52205.67 East Asia & Pacifi c (all income levels)174.2193.8217.8250.2269.31247.67287.16311.36325.57 Europe & Central Asia (all income levels)71.175.881.391.698.3083.9994.54101.49104.18 Euro area56.460.364.672.776.7566.6873.7679.1580.69 European Union67.971.576.085.090.0178.0186.6392.8294.89 High income194.4232.7246.5265.2286.15253.49284.38299.70305.10 Latin America & Caribbean (developing only)19.421.924.827.529.2427.1132.7634.9936.38 Latin America & Caribbean (all income levels)22.324.828.030.835.6332.6340.1041.4843.12 Lower middle income105.8100.4119.9144.444.5844.6751.8755.0556.91 Low & middle income144.0143.5170.3202.3229.78218.51257.65280.10296.40 Middle East & North Africa (all income levels)41.9942.5546.5249.9351.43 Middle income143.3142.7169.4201.3226.59215.34254.05276.28292.30 High income: non-OECD50.780.084.589.0103.4691.97102.93106.93109.65 High income: OECD143.7152.7162.0176.2182.69161.51181.45192.77195.46 OECD members150.2159.8170.5186.6191.22168.91190.72202.84205.93 South Asia8.59.911.913.714.4414.7717.3217.9418.10 Upper middle income37.542.349.456.9182.01170.67202.18221.23235.40 World338.4376.3416.8467.5515.94471.99542.03579.80601.51 SOuRCE World Bank Data Bank 2013; 2010International Maritime Trade and Logistics 45
or 1.19 billion tons in 2009. The global financial crisis and economic reces- sion contracted demand for consumer and manufactured goods and dura- bles. Table 3.6 illustrates the cargo flows on the major East–West container trade routes in the world. The annual percentage changes between 2008 and 2009 illustrate the declines on most major trade routes, with the dramatic increase of 84.8 per cent in Atlantic container trade between the USA and Europe one notable exception. Another was the annual increase of 66.7 per cent in container trade between North America and Asia. These dramatic changes settled down at the end of 2012 with percentage changes between 2011 and 2012 from 1.6 to 7.3 per cent, mostly in trans-Pacific container trade (with the exception of a decline of -2.8 per cent in container trade between North America and Asia).
More specifically, Table 3.7 and Figure 3.1 give an idea of the recent container port traffic in total number of TEU as 20-foot-equivalent units by
fIgurE 3.1 Container port traffic 2008–2012 (million TEU)
700 600 500 400 300 200 100
WLD
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EAS HIC LMY MIC UMC OED EAP OEC NOC ECS EUU EMU LMC MEA LCN LAC SAS MNA
Country Code Country Name WLD World
EAS East Asia & Pacific (all income levels)
HIC High income
LMY Low & middle income
MIC Middle income
UMC Upper middle income
OED OECD members
EAP East Asia & Pacific (developing only)
OEC High income: OECD
NOC High income: non-OECD
ECS Europe & Central Asia (all income levels)
Country Code Country Name
EUU European Union
EMU Euro area
LMC Lower middle income
MEA Middle East & North Africa (all income levels) LCN Latin America & Caribbean
(all income levels) LAC Latin America & Caribbean
(developing only)
SAS South Asia
MNA Middle East & North Africa (developing only) NOTE
Introduction 46
region between 2004 and 2012. In this table, the development of container port traffic is specified by different regions East Asia and the Pacific, the European Union, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Carib- bean, the Middle East and North Africa, OECD members and South Asia) and different income levels. In terms of the total number of TEU, container traffic in East Asia and the Pacific reflects that to and from its leading ports, such as Hong Kong and Singapore.
Despite these challenging developments, container shipping and interna- tional maritime trade had started to recover from the global economic down- turn by 2010. By mid-2010, gradual growth had emerged and increases in total trade volumes had started to be recorded, especially to and from China.
By the beginning of 2010, the total world merchant fleet had expanded by an impressive 7 per cent to reach 1.276 billion deadweight tonnes (dwt).
In addition, world container throughput declined by about 9 per cent to 465 million TEU in 2009, while total container trade in world seaborne trade was forecast to increase by 11.5 per cent by the end of 2010.
Liner shipping is defined as a vessel carrying passengers and cargo that operates on a route with a fixed schedule (Hinkelman, 2009). Liner shipping emerged from the establishment of regular steamship lines on regular sched- ules, calling at many ports at specific dates and times. The main advantages of liner companies are their regularity and organization at a wide range of ports regardless of the existence of cargoes (Pamuk, 2000). Liner shipping is used for general cargo on fixed trade routes and on a fixed timetable. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) notes that access to high-frequency, reliable and low-cost liner shipping services largely determines a country’s connectivity to overseas markets and thus its competitiveness globally (Hoekman, 2006; World Bank, 2007).
The configuration of liner shipping networks is important not only to shipping lines, but also for the structure of such networks. The relative position of a port on the network has a significant impact on the level of transport costs (Marquez et al, 2006; Wilmsmeier and Hoffmann, 2008;
Wilmsmeier and Notteboom, 2009a). Therefore, the location of a port within the network becomes strategic to ensure trade competitiveness, which raises important questions about the determinants that lead to the configuration of current networks and about how these could be influenced (Wilmsmeier and Notteboom, 2009a).
Demand for containerized transport also affects the development of liner shipping networks. The routing of containerized trade flows depends on the strategies of shipping companies and demand of shippers for specific service characteristics. As such, the location of a port or a region within the global liner shipping network is determined by the density of trade flows to and from a specific port or region (Wilmsmeier and Notteboom, 2009b).
The Liner Shipping Connectivity Index scores from 2004 to 2013 pre- sented in Table 3.8 suggest how well countries are connected to global shipping networks. This index is based on five components of the mari- time transport sector: number of ships, container-carrying capacity of ships,
T aBLE
3.8Liner shipping connectivity values – or der ed by 2013 r ankings
rank Country Name 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1China100.00108.29113.1127.85137.38132.47143.57152.06156.19157.51 2Hong Kong SAR, China94.4296.7899.31106.2108.78104.47113.60115.27117.18116.63 3Singapore81.8783.8786.1187.5394.4799.47103.76105.02113.16106.91 4Korea, Rep.68.6873.0371.9277.1976.4086.6782.6192.02101.73100.42 5Malaysia62.8364.9769.2081.5877.6081.2188.1490.9699.6998.18 6United States83.3087.6285.8083.6882.4582.4383.8081.6391.7092.80 7Germany76.5978.4180.6688.9589.2684.3090.8893.3290.6388.61 8United Kingdom81.6979.5881.5376.7777.9984.8287.5387.4684.0087.72 9Netherlands78.8179.9580.9784.7987.5788.6689.9692.1088.9387.46 10Belgium73.1674.1776.1573.9377.9882.8084.0088.4778.8582.21 11France67.3470.0067.7864.8466.2467.0174.9471.8470.0974.94 12Spain54.4458.1662.2971.2667.6770.2274.3276.5874.4470.40 13Italy58.1362.2058.1158.8455.8769.9759.5770.1866.3367.26 14United Arab Emirates38.0639.2246.7048.2148.8060.4563.3762.5061.0966.97 15Japan69.1566.7364.5462.7366.6366.3367.4367.8163.0965.68 16Saudi Arabia35.8336.2440.6645.0447.4447.3050.4359.9760.4059.67 17Egypt, Arab Rep.42.8649.2350.0145.3752.5351.9947.5551.1557.3957.48 18Morocco9.398.688.549.0229.7938.4049.3655.1355.0955.53 19Turkey25.6027.0927.0932.6035.6431.9836.1039.4053.1552.13 20Malta27.5325.7030.3229.5329.9237.7137.5340.9545.0249.79 21Oman23.3323.6420.2828.9630.4245.3248.5249.3347.2548.46 (Continued)rank Country Name 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 22Portugal17.5416.8423.5525.4234.9732.9738.0621.0846.2346.08 23Greece30.2229.0731.2930.7027.1441.9134.2532.1545.5045.35 24Panama32.0529.1227.6130.5330.4532.6641.0937.5142.3844.88 25India34.1436.8842.9040.4742.1840.9741.4041.5241.2944.35 26Vietnam12.8614.3015.1417.5918.7326.3931.3649.7148.7143.26 27Lebanon10.5712.5325.5730.0128.9229.5530.2935.0943.2143.16 28South Africa23.1325.8326.2127.5228.4932.0732.4935.6736.8343.02 29Sri Lanka34.6833.3637.3142.4346.0834.7440.2341.1343.4343.01 30Sweden14.7626.6128.1725.8230.2731.3430.5830.0249.4542.32 31Mexico25.2925.4929.7830.9831.1731.8936.3536.0938.8141.80 32Denmark11.5624.2525.3922.1026.4927.6826.7626.4144.7138.67 33Canada39.6739.8136.3234.4034.2841.3442.3938.4138.2938.44 34Thailand31.0131.9233.8935.3136.4836.7843.7636.7037.6638.32 35Russian Federation11.9012.7212.8114.0615.3120.6420.8820.6437.0138.17 36Poland7.287.537.507.869.329.2126.1826.5444.6238.03 37Colombia18.6119.2020.4921.0721.6423.1826.1327.2537.2537.49 38Brazil25.8331.4931.6131.6430.8731.0831.6534.6238.5336.88 39Argentina20.0924.9525.5825.6325.7025.9927.6130.6234.2133.51 40Chile15.4815.5316.1017.4917.4218.8422.0522.7632.9832.98 SOuRCE World Bank Data Bank (2013)
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3.8Liner shipping connectivity values – or der ed by 2013 r ankings ( Continued )
International Maritime Trade and Logistics 49
maximum vessel size, number of services and number of companies that deploy container ships to a country’s port. The index is fixed in 2004 to the value of 100 (ie the country with the highest score). China leads the connectivity index with a considerable gap to its nearest countries, namely Hong Kong and Singapore. Table 3.8 presents the liner shipping connectiv- ity values of the top 40 countries.
Countries actively involved in trade have the highest liner shipping con- nectivity values. For instance, the export-oriented economies of China and Hong Kong are ranked first, with the transhipment hub of Singapore third.
Large traders such as Korea (4), Malaysia (5), the USA (6), Germany (7), the UK (8) and Japan (15) are also ranked among the top 15. Countries such as France (11), Spain (12), the United Arab Emirates (14), Saudi Arabia (16), Egypt (17), Morocco (18) and Turkey (19) also rank high because of the major transhipment functions performed by their ports, as also illustrated by Figure 3.2. As shown in this figure, China, Hong Kong and Singapore are the outlier countries of the index because they have significantly higher scores than their nearest followers.
fIgurE 3.2 Bag plot of the liner shipping connectivity index (2013)
China Hong Kong SAR, China Singapore Korea, Rep. Malaysia United States Germany United Kingdom Netherlands Belgium
France Spai
n Italy United Arab Emirates Japan Saudi Arabia Egypt, Arab Rep. Morocco Turkey Malta Oman Portugal Greece Panama India Vietnam Lebanon South Africa Sri Lanka Sweden Mexico Denmark Canada Thailand Russian Federation Poland Colombia Brazil Argentina Chile
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
2013
2013 Median Outliers
Introduction 50
Transport connectivity is the main determinant of countries’ access to world markets, especially as regards regular shipping services for the import and export of manufactured goods (UNCTAD reviews, 2013).
Based on UNCTAD reports on liner shipping connectivity indices, com- panies that operate container shipping are considered to be less likely to provide services to and from the seaports of least developed countries (LDCs), because national trade volumes tend to be lower and a lower level of development will often make ports less attractive for the transhipment and transit of cargo. UNCTAD’s Liner Shipping Connectivity Index shows that the average ranking of LDCs in 2010 was 111 compared with 78 for other developing countries and 64 for developed countries. This rating shows that LDCs remain isolated from major or frequently used shipping routes.
In summary, after falling global demand following the contractions in global GDP, world seaborne trade volumes started to improve in 2008, with reflections of the emerging recovery in the global economy in 2009 and 2010, reaching 9.165 billion tons in 2012 (UNCTAD, 2013).