Chapter 1: Introduction
1.4. Policy Research Questions
Using the modifi ed IMPACT model, this study takes on the chal- lenge of inferring the short- to medium-run picture of the global fi sh markets. The discussion begins with the baseline scenario, which refl ects the trends that are currently observed and is deemed most plausible given the current knowledge. Subsequently, the fol- lowing six illustrative scenarios are introduced:
§ Scenario 1: Faster aquaculture growth
§ Scenario 2: Expanded use of fi sh processing waste in fi sh- meal and fi sh oil production
§ Scenario 3: A major disease outbreak in shrimp aquaculture in Asia
§ Scenario 4: Accelerated shift of consumer preferences in China
§ Scenario 5: Improvement of capture fi sheries productivity
§ Scenario 6: Impacts of climate change on the productivity of capture fi sheries
The results from the baseline and the six scenarios are used to un- derstand how the trends in the factors considered as key drivers of change actually drive the model output. For example, we posit that the growth of demand for fi sh products is based on trends in regional income and population growth. However, even without the model, we predict that the growth in regional demand for fi sh would not be proportional to the population growth or income growth. There will be limitations in the extent that the global fi sh supply can grow and fi sh prices will adjust to the extent that the demand grows faster than supply. Production in some countries and regions will grow faster than in others, and accordingly there will be regional gaps in fi sh supply and demand and the global fi sh trade market will balance those regional gaps. The elasticities of demand incorporated in the IMPACT model translate the strength of income growth and price changes into consumption growth for each country.
In the scenario analyses, special attention is placed on the cases of China and Sub-Saharan Africa. China is one massive market that can infl uence the dynamics of the global fi sh supply and demand. China currently accounts for 35 percent of global fi sh production and 30
the supply of fi sh products with their demands in all regions of the world. Thus, none of the eff ects of these localized supply shocks can be completely isolated. The expected diff erences in the way diff er- ent regions will be able to cope with such shocks are of interest to this study.
Another channel of global links in the fi sh markets is through fi sh- meal and fi sh oil. The rapid growth of aquaculture across various fi sh species leads to considerable pressure on supplies of fi sh-based feed. Scenario 1 directly intensifi es such pressure while scenario 2 reduces it. Other scenarios also indirectly aff ect the supply or de- mand of fi sh-based feed. Given the fi sh species disaggregation in the new version of the IMPACT model, the eff ects of changes in fi shmeal and fi sh oil supply on aquaculture can now be examined at the species level.
Scenario 5 off ers a picture of the potential outcome of global ef- forts to restore capture fi sheries around the world. Growing global interests in oceans agenda are expected to accelerate and scale up such global eff orts and bring the state of the capture fi sheries closer to their potentials as described in The Sunken Billions (Arnason, Kelleher, and Willmann 2009). This study off ers illustrations of how each region may benefi t from improved capture fi sheries in terms of gains in fi sh production and consumption.
percent of global fi sh consumption and is a net exporter of fi sh, although diff erent commodities are imported or exported. While one scenario specifi cally addresses China’s consumption trend (scenario 4), all other scenarios aff ect China’s fi sh supply-demand balance in important ways, which in turn infl uences the rest of the world through the global fi sh markets. How such repercussions in the global markets aff ect fi sh supply balances in Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the key research questions of this study. As seen earlier, per capita fi sh consumption in this region is on a declining trend. The region is a net importer of fi sh in volume and, with the projected population growth at an annual rate of 2.3 percent between 2010 and 2030 (UN 2011), the region’s dependence on imports for fi sh consumption is expected to rise.
Scenarios 3 and 6 introduce supply shocks to aquaculture through disease outbreak and capture fi sheries through climate change, respectively. Although the direct impacts of these shocks may be local, their impacts extend globally. Links exist at all levels of the fi sh sector. Though not explicitly incorporated, crucial biophysical links include the spread of fi sh diseases through waterways, the migra- tion pathways of fi sh that determine spatial stock distributions, and any other connectedness brought about by contiguity of ocean waters. Further interconnectedness occurs through value chains of fi sh products and, in particular, international trade, which connects