Chapter 4: IMPACT Projections to 2030 under Selected Scenarios
4.2. Scenario 2: Expanded Use of Fish Processing Waste in Fishmeal and Fish Oil Production
OIL PRODUCTION
The Fish to 2020 study examined a scenario of improved effi ciency in fi shmeal and fi sh oil use in aquaculture. However, the model
generated limited insight since it did not completely endogenize the important links between food fi sh markets and fi shmeal and fi sh oil markets. In the current model, the use of fi sh for human con- sumption and for conversion into feed is determined endogenously through supply-demand balance regulated through world prices.
Further, the model now allows the use of fi sh processing waste in the production of fi shmeal and fi sh oil, as explained in chapter 2.
The IFFO estimates that currently about 25 percent of the world’s fi shmeal is generated from fi sh processing waste (Shepherd 2012).
The proportion is expected to rise, given the growth of aquaculture of large fi sh species and associated development of fi sh process- ing industry, together with the trend of rising fi shmeal and fi sh oil prices.
In the current scenario, we remove the restriction in the number of countries that are able to use fi sh processing waste from the TABLE 4.2: Projected Eff ects of Faster Aquaculture Growth on Aquaculture Supply and
Commodity Prices PRODUCTION
CATEGORY
AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION IN 2030 (000 TONS)
SCENARIO 1 RELATIVE TO BASELINE
CONSUMPTION CATEGORY
BASELINE
FASTER GROWTH
(SCENARIO 1) PRODUCTION PRICE
Shrimp 8,061 8,868 10% –0.5% Shrimp
Crustaceans 2,174 2,369 9% –0.9% Crustaceans
Mollusks 22,689 25,359 12% –1.7% Mollusks
Salmon 3,613 4,015 11% –1.9% Salmon
Tuna 13 14 6% –0.2% Tuna
Tilapia 6,446 8,343 29% –0.7% Freshwater and
diadromous
Pangasius/catfi sh 5,040 5,079 1%
Carp 19,301 19,999 4%
OCarp 15,190 15,369 1%
EelStg 480 489 2%
OFresh 6,473 6,523 1%
MDemersal 2,105 2,229 6% –0.2% Demersals
Mullet 524 604 15%
CobSwf 41 43 4% 1.3% Pelagics
OPelagic 199 198 –0.2%
OMarine 1,261 1,720 36% –0.7% Other marine
Fishmeal 7,582 7,744 2% 13.0% Fishmeal
Source: IMPACT model projections.
Note: Pangasius/catfi sh = Pangasius and other catfi sh; OCarp = silver, bighead, and grass carp; EelStg = aggregate of eels and sturgeon; OFresh = freshwater and diadromous species (excluding tilapia, Pangasius/
catfi sh, carp, OCarp, and EelStg); MDemersal = major demersal fi sh; CobSwf = aggregate of cobia and swordfi sh; OPelagic = other pelagic species; OMarine = other marine fi sh.
20 countries/groups of countries in the baseline scenario,24 which was determined following the data and in the data reconciliation process (see technical appendix C to chapter 2). The scenario now allows any country that produces fi shmeal to use fi sh processing waste starting in 2011. The assumptions on fi sh species whose waste can be used for fi shmeal and fi sh oil production as well as the volume of waste per unit of live fi sh are shown in table 2.9. It is assumed that the amount of fi sh processing waste each country can use is restricted to the amount of waste produced, whether capture or aquaculture, in the country in a given year. This repre- sents a limitation of the model because, in reality, fi sh are traded for processing purposes and fi nal processed products are also widely traded. In particular, China and Thailand increasingly import raw material for reexport of processed products (FAO 2012). However, since the current model does not have separate supply functions for processed seafood, it does not keep track of the countries in which fi sh processing takes place. For this reason, the model is subject to overprediction of waste use in some countries and underprediction in others. Nonetheless, the extent of this cannot be confi rmed, as no data exist on this issue to our knowledge. The levels of fi sh waste use are endogenously determined based on world prices of fi shmeal, while we do not assign any market-clearing mechanism or price to the supply or use of fi sh processing waste. The specifi c procedure is described in chapter 2.
Allowing in the model all countries to freely use fi sh processing waste would eff ectively increase the supply of feedstock that is available for reduction into fi shmeal and fi sh oil, much of which is likely to be used given the high fi shmeal price simulated in the baseline scenario. Table 4.3 contrasts the results under the baseline and the current scenarios in terms of usage of fi sh processing waste.
Globally, the projected use of processing waste in 2030 increases from 5.7 million tons under the baseline case to more than 10 mil- lion tons under the scenario. Looking across regions, while relatively few regions use processing waste in the baseline case, waste use is represented in all regions under the scenario. In fact, most of the gain in the use of fi sh processing waste under the scenario would
24 The 20 countries/groups of countries are Argentina, Australia, Belgium- Luxembourg, Brazil, British Isles (including Ireland), Canada, Chile, Côte d’Ivoire, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russian Federation, Scan- dinavia, Spain/Portugal, Thailand, United States, Uruguay, and Vietnam.
come from those countries that are newly allowed to use waste, notably China.
As a result of the additional volume of fi sh processing waste made available for fi shmeal production, the model projects a substantial increase in fi shmeal supply in 2030: from 7,582 thousand tons in baseline to 8,473 thousand tons in this scenario, or a 12 percent in- crease. The expanded use of processing waste would slightly reduce the pressure on capture fi sheries of supplying fi shmeal ingredients.
The whole fi sh used for fi shmeal production would reduce from 28,367 thousand tons under the baseline scenario to 27,646 thou- sand tons under the scenario. The proportion of fi shmeal produced based on processing waste also increases from 15 percent to 26 percent (fi gure 4.1).
The increase in fi shmeal supply would result in a reduction in its price. For the 11.8 percent increase in supply, the correspond- ing price reduction is projected to be 14.1 percent (table 4.4). The reduced fi shmeal price in turn would encourage aquaculture pro- duction. At the global level, aquaculture production in 2030 would
TABLE 4.3: Projected Amount of Fish Processing Waste Used in Fishmeal Production by Region (000 tons)
BASELINE
PROCESSING WASTE (SCENARIO 2) 2010
(PROJECTION)
2030 (PROJECTION)
2030 (PROJECTION)
Global total 5,304 5,656 10,206
ECA 2,193 2,194 2,381
NAM 1,141 1,165 1,057
LAC 849 1,012 738
EAP 2 3 173
CHN n.a. n.a. 2,856
JAP 521 521 521
SEA 597 760 1,315
SAR n.a. n.a. 318
IND n.a. n.a. 419
MNA n.a. n.a. 91
AFR 1 1 98
ROW n.a. n.a. 240
Source: IMPACT model projections.
Note: ECA = Europe and Central Asia; NAM = North America; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; CHN = China; JAP = Japan; EAP = other East Asia and the Pacifi c; SEA = Southeast Asia; IND = India; SAR = other South Asia;
MNA = Middle East and North Africa; AFR = Sub-Saharan Africa; ROW = rest of the world; n.a. = not applicable.
increase 1.9 percent relative to the baseline case, from 93.6 million tons to 95.4 million tons. Looking across species, a reduced price of fi shmeal would benefi t the tuna, salmon, and crustacean aquacul- ture industry as well as species in the freshwater and diadromous category. All of these changes would lead to reduced fi sh prices.
It is worth noting that expansion and improvements of processing facilities for fi shmeal and fi sh oil production could have unintended eff ects on wild fi sheries. While the intended benefi t is increased use of catch and processing waste that are currently unused, expanded processing capacity and markets could also result in greater reduc- tion demand for fi sh, including those that otherwise would be used for direct human consumption and potentially encouraging har- vest of all kinds of fi sh, including some protected and endangered species.
– 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Baseline
Thousand tons
Processing waste (Scenario 2) Processing waste Whole fish
FIGURE 4.1: Projected Increase in Fishmeal Production due to Usage of Whole Fish and Fish Processing Waste in 2030
Source: IMPACT model projections.
TABLE 4.4: Projected Eff ects of Expanded Use of Fish Processing Waste in Fishmeal Production on Aquaculture Supply and Commodity Prices
PRODUCTION
CATEGORY AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION IN 2030 (000 TONS) SCENARIO 2 RELATIVE TO BASELINE
CONSUMPTION CATEGORY
BASELINE
WASTE USE
(SCENARIO 2) PRODUCTION PRICE
Global total 93,612 95,389 1.9% n.a. Global Total
Shrimp 8,061 8,111 0.6% –0.1% Shrimp
Crustaceans 2,174 2,227 2.4% –0.3% Crustaceans
Mollusks 22,689 22,657 –0.1% –0.1% Mollusks
Salmon 3,613 3,731 3.2% –0.7% Salmon
Tuna 13 14 4.2% –0.2% Tuna
Tilapia 6,446 6,587 2.2% –0.4% Freshwater and
diadromous
Pangasius/catfi sh 5,040 5,149 2.2%
Carp 19,301 19,807 2.6%
OCarp 15,190 15,800 4.0%
EelStg 480 496 3.4%
OFresh 6,473 6,676 3.1%
MDemersal 2,105 2,102 –0.1% –0.4% Demersals
Mullet 524 522 –0.3%
CobSwf 41 41 0.4% –1.8% Pelagics
OPelagic 199 201 1.1%
OMarine 1,261 1,268 0.6% –0.5% Other marine
Fishmeal 7,582 8,473 11.8% –14.1% Fishmeal
Source: IMPACT model projections.
Note: n.a. = not applicable; Pangasius/catfi sh = Pangasius and other catfi sh; OCarp = silver, bighead, and grass carp; EelStg = aggregate of eels and sturgeon; OFresh = freshwater and diadromous species (excluding tilapia, Pangasius/catfi sh, carp, OCarp, and EelStg); MDemersal = major demersal fi sh; CobSwf = aggregate of cobia and swordfi sh; OPelagic = other pelagic species;
OMarine = other marine fi sh.
4.3. SCENARIO 3: A MAJOR DISEASE OUTBREAK IN