Motivation
1.1 Primary Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions
1.1.1 Development of Primary Energy Consumption in the Past 40 Years
The global consumption of primary energy has been marked by a strong increase in the past 40 years. Figure 1.1 presents the development of primary energy consump- tion, broken down into groupings, namely industrial countries of the OECD; former Soviet Union; and emerging economies (i.e. developing countries). In 1965, the worldwide consumption of primary energy amounted to only 3,860 MTOE (million tonnes of oil equivalent); by 2005, it had increased to 10,224 MTOE. This corre- sponds to an increase of 172% or an annual rate of increase of 2.5% (BP 2008). In industrial countries, the increase was around 107% for 40 years, corresponding to an annual rate of increase of almost 2%. In the emerging economies, which started from a lower absolute level, the increase was 640%, which corresponds to an annual rate of increase of more than 5%.
Figure 1.2 shows the share of primary energy consumption of the different coun- tries and regions for the year 2005. A conspicuous fact here is the high share of North America, where in the USA alone almost a quarter of the entire primary energy of the world is consumed.
In 2005, the fossil energy sources, i.e. crude oil, natural gas and coal, comprised 87% of primary energy consumption (see Fig. 1.3).
1.1.2 Developments Until 2030
Predictions of the development of primary energy consumption are based on various assumptions about the total population, the gross national product and the energy efficiency of different countries and are highly dependent on general political con- ditions. The following shall present predictions of the development of the energy demand up until 2030, which predominantly rely on an extrapolation of the current developments and general conditions. The effect of political measures introduced
H. Spliethoff, Power Generation from Solid Fuels, Power Systems,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-02856-4 1,C Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010
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2 1 Motivation
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
1965
Primary energy consumption [Mtoe]
Emerging market economies Former Soviet Union
OECD Industrial countries
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Fig. 1.1 Global primary energy consumption 1965–2005 by country groupings (BP 2008)
until now is reflected; future possible and also probable measures are not taken into consideration. The reference scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2006, for instance, assumes a growth of the world population to 8.1 thousand million up to the year 2030 (2004: 6.4 thousand million), an increase of the gross national product of 4% at the beginning, levelling off at 2.9% per year, and natural oil prices of somewhat more than $60 per barrel (real price 2005). Technologies of power supply and energy utilisation (end-use technologies) become ever more efficient.
The predictions illustrated in Figs. 1.4, 1.5, 1.6 and 1.7 of global primary energy demand, electric power generation, installed power plant capacities and CO2emis- sions rely on data of the IEA and the US Department of Energy (DoE) (IEA 2002,
Fig. 1.2 Primary energy consumption in 2005 by regions and countries (BP
2008) Total: 10.5 Mtoe (2005)
OECD North America
2801
OECD Europe 1855 OECD Pacific
886 Former
Soviet Union 1093 South and
East Asia 984 South America
501
Middle East 510
Africa 317
China 1554
1.1 Primary Energy Consumption and CO2Emissions 3 Fig. 1.3 Primary energy
consumption in 2005 by primary energy sources (BP 2008)
Total 10.5 Mtoe (2005)
Coal 2930
Oil 3837 Natural gas
2475
Nuclear 627
Hydro 669
2006b, a; DoE 2007). They describe probable development if no dramatic measures are taken to reduce energy consumption and CO2emissions. Possible measures shall be discussed in Sect. 1.3.
According to Fig. 1.4, global primary energy consumption will increase by more than 60% (in comparison to the year 2000) by 2030, which corresponds to an annual rate of increase of about 1.6%. This increase can be explained on the one hand by the growth of the world population and on the other by the accumulated needs of the emerging economies, such as China and India. Predictions, for example for China, say that the energy consumption will double in such countries. Fossil energy sources will continue to cover more than 80% of the primary energy consumption in 2030, with crude oil still making up the most important energy source, with a rough fraction of about 35%. Natural gas among all the energy sources shows the highest rates of increase – the consumption of it will double with respect to the year 2000 and its relative fraction will rise to 26%. The fraction of coal will decrease slightly,
OECD North America OECD Europe
China South America South + East Asia
Africa Middle East
Emerging Economies OECD Pacific
Coal Oil Natural gas Rene- wables
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000
Hydro Nuclear
Primary energy demand [Mtoe]
Fig. 1.4 Primary energy demand 1980–2030 of countries and regions with respect to primary energy sources (IEA 2002, 2006b; BP 2008)
4 1 Motivation
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
OECD North America OECD Pacific OECD Europe South + East Asia China Middle East South America Africa
Emerging Economies
Electricity production [TWh]
Coal Oil Rene- wables
Natural gas Nuclear Hydro
Fig. 1.5 Electric power production 1980–2030 of countries and regions with respect to primary energy sources (IEA 2002, 2006b)
arriving at about 22% by 2030. In the absolute, though, the consumption rises by 50% from the year 2000.
Electric power (see Fig. 1.5) will still further consolidate its great importance as an end-use energy source. The consumption of electric power will about double between 2000 and 2030, the rates of increase of 2.4% per year ranging clearly above the growth rates of primary energy consumption. Coal, with about 37%, will be the most important primary energy source in electric power generation; natural gas will increase its share to more than 30%.
The predicted rise of electric power consumption requires the installation of new power plants on a considerable scale (see Fig. 1.6). The power plant capac- ity installed worldwide amounted to about 3,400 GW in 2000 and is supposed to rise to 7,060 in 2030. Taking into consideration that old plants have to be removed
2000 2010 2020 2030
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Installed power plant capacity [GW]
North America Europe OECD OECD Pacific OECD China
South + East Asia Middle East South America Africa
Emerging Economies
Coal Natural gas Oil Rene- wables
Nuclear Hydro
Fig. 1.6 Installed power generation capacity 2000–2030 (IEA 2002)