8 Components of regional planning
8.4 Relevant techniques
Table 8.3OECD output growth, and Location Quotients for the UK and some English city regions (1996–2001) OECD UKLondonBirminghamManchesterLeedsSheffieldNewcastleLiverpoolNottingham growth 1996– 2001 Food, drink and tobacco–1.01.20.42.01.70.91.20.81.01.1 Textiles, clothing and leather–2.50.90.33.72.01.20.30.71.24.6 Wood and wood products0.00.70.32.91.01.51.21.40.41.2 Paper, printing and publishing–0.31.51.20.51.61.40.41.31.01.0 Chemicals, rubber and plastics1.21.10.30.85.50.50.42.72.30.4 Other non-metallic mineral products0.80.90.25.00.91.52.00.22.61.3 Metals and fabricated metal products0.31.00.214.00.31.13.30.30.81.8 Machinery and equipment6.70.90.34.30.91.01.01.20.90.7 Transport equipment3.50.90.210.70.20.91.03.50.44.5 Other manufacturing1.61.10.52.90.71.80.90.80.81.6 Electricity, gas and water0.80.90.53.90.71.00.61.50.43.7 Construction1.21.10.81.40.81.11.20.80.81.2 Distribution, hotels and catering3.91.00.81.31.01.01.00.91.11.0 Transport2.11.31.20.81.20.80.90.91.30.6 Communications8.71.21.20.80.91.11.10.81.10.8 Financial services5.60.82.00.41.20.90.80.91.50.5 Business services3.80.81.70.51.10.80.81.20.91.2 Other (mainly public) services1.61.10.91.01.11.11.01.11.00.8 Total of above2.8 Manufacturing1.91.00.43.00.91.01.10.91.01.2 Source:Simmieet al. (2006).
income into a region, an increase in demand for goods and services in the region, and a corresponding increase in non-basic activity. Hence, a forecast of changes in basic activity can be scaled up by a multiplier, derived from an analysis of the regional economy, to provide a total economic impact – often estimated in terms of jobs. The approach is crude and there are complications, such as the initial basic/non-basic division, but it can provide a useful indicator of regional change. More sophisticated approaches use regional income multipliers (see Figure 8.3), and input–output analysis.The latter approach disaggregates an economy into its component sectors, linked in a matrix by supply and demand coefficients. This allows the impact on all sectors of predicted changes in any one sector to be estimated. Again there are complications; for example, the supply relationships between sectors may not be too stable in anything other than the short run. The approach is also data hungry, but there have been some useful examples of the application of the approach in regional planning.
8.4.2 Forecasting manpower and land requirements
Manpower forecasting involves two main elements: the supply and demand for labour. Each has its complications. Labour supply projections can build on population projections, adjusted for activity rates which themselves need to allow for gender and age variations. However, increasingly, there is a focus on skill levels and productivity, which may greatly reduce the real capacity in the workforce, although of course training can help to offset such problems. Yet, supply is also a function of the level of demand in a region at any particular time. Supply and demand are interrelated and a region with low demand may see its workforce diminish through the process of net out-migration which, as noted in Chapter 4, can be selective of the most skilled and marketable – leading to a vicious circle of cumulative decline. Labour demand can be fore- cast, in the short run, by a statistical analysis of, and projections from, past trends in the region’s industrial sectors. This might utilise some of the multiplier approaches previously discussed, preferably complemented by direct Components of regional planning: economy 167
Yr 1/1(1s)(1tu)(1m) J where
Yr is the change in level of income (Y) in region (r), in £;
J is the initial income injection (the multiplicand);
t is the proportion of additional income paid in direct taxation and national Insurance contributions;
s is the proportion of income saved (and therefore not spent regionally);
u is the decline in transfer payments (e.g. unemployment benefits) which result from the rise in regional income and employment;
m is the proportion of additional regional income spent on imported consumer goods.
Figure 8.3 A simple income multiplier model for the prediction of regional economic change.
Table 8.4 Key stages and techniques for an employment land policy Planning the overall provision of employment land
(a) Regional Assembly should undertake a regional employment land surveyof existing sites to assess their market value potential, allowing for necessary site preparation and the cost and time constraints of achieving this.
(b) Local authorities, in preparing their development plans, should rigorously assess amount of employment land needed, taking account of factors such as past rate of development and projected needs, range of sites, regeneration requirements, national and regional measures to improve the regional economy and the regional employment land survey.
(c) Development plans and economic development strategies should ensure that locations are reserved for a range of regionally significant sites, including Single User Sites of approximately 25–50 hectares, with good public transport connections, Estuary Related Sites, and Premium Sites, of approximately 15–40 hectares, to meet the needs for high-tech products and processes and service sector growth
(mininimum individual development size of five hectares).
(d) There should also be a good supply of a range of sitesfor sub-regional and local development, well integrated with existing urban areas.
Determining the employment site and selection criteria
(a) Locational choice– development plan provision for employment land should give preference to previously developed land within urban areas, subject to factors such as quantity and quality of the supply and preparation costs, including infrastructure.
Where land outside the urban area is required to ensure a balanced portfolio, preference should be given to land on the urban periphery accessible by good public transport, taking account of greenbelt constraints, followed if necessary by sites at nodes on public transport corridors. Subject to this, re-use of previously developed sites will be favoured.
(b) Development type– major production industries should be located with good access to inter-regional transport corridors; business/science-based clusters would benefit from a premium site location; business parks and offices should where possible be located in town and city centres. Any alternative locations should be assessed in terms of effects on future private investment in town centres, implications for development plan strategies, accessibility by public transport, and impacts on travel.
Provision should be made for warehousing and distribution activities, with high goods volume and low labour content, near to inter-regional transport facilities.
Managing the employment land portfolio
(a) At any one time, one large single-user site should be capable of development commencing within one year of a firm expression of interest.
(b) Estuarial locations should be handled in a similar way.
(c) A priority order should be established for premium sites at the sub-regional level, with a choice of two such locations available in key sub-regions at any one time.
(d) Prioritisation at the sub-regional and local levels should be based on patterns of demand for the particular type of land in the locality. Between 2–4 years’ supply of land should be readily available.
Source:Abbreviated adaptation from YHA (2004a).
survey and inquiry of perceived prospects by major employers in the region under study.
The planning of the total supply and the particular characteristics of employ- ment landis an important element in regional planning. Table 8.4 outlines an
overall logic to the process, the importance of a regional employment land survey, and the sequential approach to the allocation of particular sites.