Brundtland (1987) noted that the conservation of living natural resources – plants, animals, and micro-organisms and the non-living elements of the environment on which they depend – is crucial for development and that the conservation of wild living resources is now on the agenda of governments.
The climate system is a complex, interactive system consisting of the atmosphere, land surface, snow and ice, oceans and other bodies of water, and living things. For example, humans and animals require oxygen to breathe and live and exhale CO2, whereas plants absorb CO2 and convert it into oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. This activity should maintain an ecosystem balance, but the removal of plants and trees or the extinction of species puts the ecosystem into imbalance.
Climate change can occur as a result of internal variability within the climate system and external variability (natural or anthropogenic). Natural variability includes phenomena such as volcanic eruptions and solar vari- ations. Anthropogenic variability includes human-induced changes in the composition of the atmosphere, for example a change in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs).
The greenhouse effect is a naturally occurring phenomenon and without it, life on earth could not exist, as it acts as a natural thermostat for the earth’s atmosphere. Without a natural greenhouse effect, the temperature of the earth would be zero degrees F (−18°C) instead of its present 57°F (14°C) and a decline of 8–10°C would plunge Europe and North America into an ice age. Climatic observations over the past 150 years have shown that temperatures at the earth’s surface have risen globally, with important regional variations. Most of the observed increase in global average temper- atures since the mid-20th century is considered to be due to an observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations (Shaw et al, 2010).
However, this may not be a new phenomenon. Cline (2014) argues that climate change, manifested by droughts and famines, has contributed to global conflict and the collapse of civilizations for over 3,000 years. One of Cline’s most vivid examples comes from the Late Bronze Age – around
1200 BC – where a centuries-long drought in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean regions contributed to (if not caused) widespread famine, unrest and ultimately the destruction of many prosperous cities. Cline noted that research scientists have recently determined the length and severity of the drought by examining ancient pollen as well as oxygen and carbon isotope data drawn from alluvial and mineral deposits; their conclusions were corroborated by correspondence, inscribed and fired on clay tablets, dating from that time. Ancient letters from the Hittite king- dom (now modern-day Turkey) ‘… beseeched neighbouring powers for shipments of grain to stave off famine caused by the drought… one letter, sent from a Hittite king, pleads for help: It is a matter of life or death!’
National security for the powers of the age was also affected. A letter sent to the king of Ugarit (on the coast of modern-day Syria) advised ‘… be on the lookout for the enemy and make yourself very strong!’ This advice probably came too late as another letter from the same time notes: ‘…
when your messenger arrived, the army was humiliated and the city was sacked… our food in the threshing floors was burned and the vineyards were also destroyed… our city is sacked… may you know it!’ Cline concludes that we live in a world that has more similarities to that of the Late Bronze Age than one might suspect, including an ‘increasingly homo- geneous yet uncontrollable global economy and culture’ where ‘political uncertainties on one side of the world can drastically affect the economies of regions thousands of miles away’. Whether our civilization collapses like the Late Bronze Age into the Dark Ages remains to be seen, but it is useful to note the parallels.
An article appearing in an issue of Nature (Farman et al, 1985) docu- mented a large seasonal disappearance of ozone from the earth’s atmosphere over Antarctica. Immediately following the Nature publication, 20 nations signed the Vienna Convention which established a framework for negotiat- ing international regulations on ozone-depleting substances. In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to provide an authoritative international statement of scientific understanding of climate change. This action and subsequent work have determined that the need to reduce GHG emissions is the greatest long- term ecosystem challenge facing the world today.
The six major greenhouse gases (Shaw et al, 2010) include CO2, methane (CH4), nitrous oxides (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). CO2 is the most significant of these greenhouse gases and is the main contributor to global warming. The 1997
Science of Sustainability 41 Kyoto Protocol, the initial meeting of the world’s nations to address climate change issues, legally bound industrialized nations to reduce emissions of GHGs, particularly CO2, to an average of 5.2 per cent below 1990 baseline levels by 2012. The aim of this legislation, as well as various climate change bills in the EU and UK, is to maintain global carbon dioxide levels below 450 parts per million (ppm) and limit the temperature rise to no more than 2 degrees Celsius by 2012. These goals have been superseded by subsequent conferences and the COP 21 summit in Paris in 2015, as discussed above, and a sense of urgency has been posited by some.
Kahn (2016) considers that history will ‘look back on September 2016 as a major milestone for the world’s climate… at a time when atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually at its minimum, the monthly value failed to drop below 400 parts per million.’ September is usually the month when CO2 is at its lowest after a summer of plants growing and absorbing it in the northern hemisphere. As the autumn commences, those plants lose their leaves, which in turn decompose and release the stored CO2 back into the atmosphere.
At Mauna Loa Observatory, the world’s primary site for monitoring CO2, the indications were that levels were already above 400 ppm before the process began. Further, 2016 was also set to be the hottest year on record and the earth has edged up against the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming thresh- old, which is a key metric in the Paris COP 21 agreement.
The UK government committed to reducing GHG emissions to at least 12.5 per cent below the Kyoto baseline by the same dates, but then also set a tougher long-term goal in the Climate Change Act of 2008 to reduce CO2 emissions by 80 per cent by 2050 through five budget periods. The UK is currently in the second budget period of the Act (2013–17) where emis- sions must be 27 per cent lower than 1990 and has made good progress towards its targets. It has achieved almost a 38 per cent reduction in emis- sions since 1990, which is ahead of the third budget and also substantial when compared with cuts achieved by other nations (HSBC, 2016). Much of this reduction has been generated through better energy efficiency and the retirement of coal- and oil-fired power stations.
Concerns in the logistics and SCM space about increased greenhouse gases such as pollution, traffic congestion, global warming, disposal and the clean-up of hazardous materials have led to a number of environmental laws and EU directives that affect logistics systems design and strategies.
GHG emissions, particularly CO2, have been the focus of much work in logistics and SCM, particularly consumer and freight transport. The UK’s domestic carbon dioxide emissions, excluding international aviation and shipping, are generated from four main sectors (Commission for Integrated
Transport, 2007): the energy supply sector (40 per cent), all modes in the transport sector (25 per cent), the industrial sector including manufacturing, retailing, services and warehousing (20 per cent) and the residential sector (15 per cent).
Examining the transport sector in more detail, private automobiles are the primary source of carbon dioxide emissions (54 per cent) followed by heavy goods trucks or lorries (22 per cent) and vans (13 per cent). Thus, truck and van freight transportation in the UK accounts for less than 9 per cent of total carbon dioxide emissions. This is consistent with worldwide estimations of 8 per cent for transport; warehousing and goods handling worldwide are estimated to add about 4 per cent to that total (McKinnon et al, 2012).
However, the UK’s total transportation emissions have risen 11 per cent from the Kyoto baseline of 1990; faster than any other sector, despite effi- ciencies in fuel use and emissions. This situation is due primarily to the growth in freight transport activity and is again consistent with predicted growth in freight transport, particularly road freight, all over the globe (World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2007a). Freight transport issues will be discussed in depth in Chapter 3, while warehousing and manufacturing and production will be discussed in Chapters 4 and 5 respectively.
Climate change due to GHGs is continually being discussed by the media and at international conferences, and major reports are issued regularly on the steps to combat it by organizations such as the IPCC. However, proper and accurate measurement, particularly regarding alternative trade-offs and decisions, remains difficult. A recent study to determine an economic value for carbon storage and CO2 is discussed in the following box.