Adult patients RT-PCR- confirmed-COVID-19
(n=220)
Adult patients RT-PCR- confirmed-COVID-19
(n=97)
Patients excluded due to missing data
(n=19)
Patients excluded due to missing data
(n=5)
Patients excluded due incomplete follow-up resolution at the cut-
off date (n=8)
Patients excluded due incomplete follow-up resolution at the cut-
off date (n=9)
Included patients (n=193)
Training set (n=149)
Included patients (n=83)
Test set (n=44)
WAVE 1 WAVE 2
Supplementary Figure S1. Flowchart of the patient selection process. RT-PCR: reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction.
Supplementary Figure S2. The six-parameter signature of critical/fatal COVID-19 predicts disease prognosis in the training and test groups during the first wave of infection. ROC-AUC analysis of the combinations of the six biomarkers included in the signature.
1 - Specificity
1.0 0.8
0.6 0.4
0.2 0.0
Sensitivity
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
ROC Curve
<
L r
AUC NLR = 0.730 AUC LDH = 0.671
AUC C-reactive protein = 0.608 AUC Urea = 0.595
AUC d-Dimer = 0.564 AUC IL-6 = 0.532
AUC All Biomarkers = 0.874 Reference Line
0 20 40
IL-6 d-Dimer Urea C-reactive protein LDH NLR
50 100 150 200
10.571 (1.503 - 74.323) (P = 0.018) 18.663 (1.959 - 177.847) (P = 0.011)
1.201 (0.211 - 6.836) (P = 0.836)
5.617 (0.805 - 39.194) (P = 0.082)
0.639 (0.122 - 3.355) (P = 0.597)
0.556 (0.108 - 2.869) (P = 0.556) Odds Ratio (95% CI)
A
B
Supplementary Figure S3. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of the six-biomarker model built with data from wave 1 on critical/fatal COVID-19 prognosis during the second wave of infection. (A) ROC curves, AUC analyses, and (B) odds ratio plots, 95% confidence interval (CI) and P-value of the biomarkers included in the six-biomarker signature.
