MODELING DAN PENYUSUNAN ASUMSI SKENARIO DEKARBONISASI
PEMBANGUNAN SEKTOR AFOLU INDONESIA
Rizaldi Boer & Gito Gintings
Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast Asia and Pacific,
Bogor Agricultural University (CCROM SEAP IPB)
Part of Output of DDPP
Pendahuluan
• Untuk menghindari kenaikan suhu global melebihi 2 o C, dekarbonisasi pembangunan harus dilakukan
• Indonesia sektor AFOLU merupakan sektor yang sumbangan emisinya masih terbesar
1,453.96 MtCO2e 1,001.42
MtCO2e
Sumber: 1stBUR; MoEF, 2015
Pendahuluan
• Sektor lahan dan hutan tetap menjadi sektor andalan utama dalam menurunkan emisi GRK untuk mencapai target penurunan emisi nasional
• Di pihak lain, pemerintah juga telah memiliki target pembangunan yang diperkirakan membutuhkan lahan yang cukup luas, diantaranya:
– Menjaga swasembada besar dan meningkatkan produksi pangan lainnya (jagung, kedelai, cabe dll) untuk memenuhi permintaan dalam negeri yang semakin meningkat
– Meningkatkan produksi komoditas pertanian lainnya
(sawit, coklat, kopi, karet termasuk kayu) untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dalam negerti dan target eksport
– Meningkatkan sumbangan energi terbarukan berbasis
biomass dalam kebijakan energi baur nasional
Pertumbuhan Areal Pertanian dan Perkebunan
Pertumbuhan yang cepat ialah lahan perkebunan (0.571 juta ha per tahun),
khususnya sawit
Target Produksi CPO (GAPKI, 2014)
FRAKSI AREAL TERDEFORESTASI dari 1990-2009 YANG SAAT INI MENJADI WILAYAH TERBANGUN DAN TIDAK
Sumber: Diolah dari berdasarkan data DitjenPlan, 2014
Deforestasi tidak direncanakan
(unplanned deforestation)
masih tinggi
Skenario Pembangunan Rendah Emisi
• Skenario Emisi:
– BAU: Historis dan target (khusus untuk sawit – mencoba mengikuti skenario GAPKI)
– CM1: Mengikuti rencana dan target pembangunan pemerintah
– CM2: Mengikuti rencana pembangunan dan target produksi pemerintah dengan meningkatkan kinerja
sektor dan mengintensifkan kegiatan penurunan emisi
• Untuk semua skenario, target untuk
mempertahankan swasembada beras dan sereal (khususnya jagung) tercapai, dan kebutuhan
lahan untuk pemukiman dan peternakan
terpenuhi
Land use/cover analysis for base year (2010)
Statistical Data on area for dominant crops 2010
Land categories for DDPP
Statistical Data on harvested area and Yield of all
commodities of 2010 INITIAL LAND
USES of 2010
Calculation of land use changes up to
2050 Inputs/Assumption:
Population, GDP, Yield, CI, &
Production Target (wood, palm oil, other perennial crops). For rice and annual crops, Yield and CI following government target
Calculation of Emissions Inputs/Assumption:
Level of intervention of mitigation activities in each type of land use
Inputs/Assumption:
Emission factors of BAU and mitigation technologies
Emission Estimates for
BAU &
mitigation
Inputs/Assumption:
Rate of deforestation, rate of rice area conversion in Java, rate of rice area growth outside Java, rate of annual crops and grassland area conversion/growth – may follow historical
Metodologi
Land use/cover analysis for
base year (2010)
Statistical Data on area for dominant
crops
Land categories
for DDPP
Statistical Data on harvested area and Yield
of all commodities
of 2010
Calculation of area for all commodities
based on area proportion and cropping intensity for non-rice crops
(CI) of 2010:
INITIAL LAND USES
Land Categories for DDPP
Asumsi
Khusus untuk deforetasi, unplanned deforestation untuk skenario BAU
masih terjadi sampai 2030, untuk CM1 dan
CM2 hanya sampai 2020, setelah 2020 sesuai
dengan kebutuhan lahan
yang dihitung oleh model
Laju deforestasi untuk
BAU sama dengan laju
deforestasi FREL untuk
REDD (0.92 juta ha/thn)
Asumsi (Konversi dan Pertumbuhan Lahan Pertanian untuk menjaga swasembada Beras)
Historis (2000- 2010)
BAU CM1 CM2
Rice in Java (000 ha/yr) -52.311 -1.34%/yr
-27.668 (-0.83%/yr)
-22.710 (-0.66%/yr)
-22.710 (-0.66%/yr) Rice Outside Java (000
ha/yr)
48.405 1.31%
26.124 (0.68%/yr)
57.305 (1.31%/yr)
26.124 (0.68%/yr)
Assumsi-1 (Populasi/GDP dan Ternak)
Unit 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population Million 239 271 296 323 350
GDP per cap USD 1,299.17 2,002.95 3,128.85 4,898.52 7,720.46
Dairy Cattle 000 Head 366 390 415 441 469
Other Cattle 000 Head 9,727 10,107 10,502 10,912 11,338
Buffolo 000 Head 1,440 1,496 1,554 1,615 1,678
Sheep 000 Head 10,725 11,144 11,580 12,032 12,502
Goat 000 Head 16,620 17,269 17,943 18,644 19,372
Horse 000 Head 419 435 452 470 488
Swine 000 Head 7,477 7,769 8,073 8,389 8,717
Native Chicken 000 Head 84,672 87,979 91,416 94,987 98,697
Egg chicken/Layer 000 Head 105,210 109,320 113,590 118,026 122,637
Broiler 000 Head 162,225 168,562 175,146 181,988 189,096
Duck 000 Head 44,302 46,035 47,835 49,706 51,650
Asumsi 2 (Produktivitas Tanaman; t/ha)
30.02 27.18
2050 2050 2050
BaU CM1 CM2
Rice in Java 5.80 5.95 6.11 6.11
Outside Java 4.20 5.20 5.20 5.20
Upland National 3.04 3.04 3.04 3.04
Other Serials 4.44 5.00 6.00 7.00
Vegetables 9.03 10.00 11.00 12.00
Oil Crops 5.27 7.00 7.00 7.00
Other Crops 0.87 1.30 1.30 1.30
Cassava 20.22 26.41 29.99 35.00
Sugar Crops 47.89 66.53 77.64 80.00
Fruits and Nuts 10.71 12.01 13.01 14.00
Industrial crop 0.85 1.20 1.31 1.40
Palmoil (FB) 23.17 30.02 27.18 34.50
Assumption land productivity for feed
production Nat/Cul (kg/m2) 0.5/5 0.5/5 0.5/5 0.5/5
2010
HTI (m3/ha) – 6 year rotation 130 140 150
Asumsi 3 (Konsumsi Per Kapita)
BaU CM1 CM2
2030 2030 2030
Rice crops 141.20 134.31 134.31 127.73
Other Cerals 84.77 89.11 93.66 93.66
Vegetables 55.55 61.38 61.38 61.38
Oil Crops 65.05 71.87 71.87 71.87
Other Crop 13.80 14.64 14.64 14.64
Cassava 59.78 68.32 68.32 68.32
Sugar Crops 147.00 197.99 197.99 197.99
Fruits and Nuts 80.33 88.76 88.76 88.76
Palm Oil 4.29 4.74 4.74 4.74
Per capita Settlement space (m2/cap) 107.40 107.40 87.84 87.84 2010
Consumption (kg/cap/yr)
BaU CM1 CM2
2050 2050 2050
Rice crops 141.20 127.75 127.75 115.55
Other Cerals 84.77 93.67 103.49 103.49
Vegetables 55.55 67.82 67.82 67.82
Oil Crops 65.05 79.41 79.41 79.41
Other Crop 13.80 15.54 15.54 15.54
Cassava 59.78 78.08 78.08 78.08
Sugar Crops 147.00 266.66 266.66 266.66
Fruits and Nuts 80.33 98.07 98.07 98.07
Palm Oil 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Per capita Settlement space (m2/cap) 4.29 5.23 5.23 5.23
2010 Consumption (kg/cap/yr)
Asumsi 3 (Konsumsi Per Kapita)
HASIL ANALISIS
Emission Projection under the three scenarios
Penurunan Emisi 2020 CM1: 16% ~ 0.083 Gt CM2: 39% ~ 0.203 Gt Penurunan Emisi 2030 CM1: 32% ~ 0.165 Gt CM2: 65% ~ 0.337 Gt
Emisi Per Capita
BAU CM1 CM2 2010 2.2 2.2 2.2 2020 1.9 1.6 1.2 2030 1.8 1.2 0.6 2040 1.5 1.1 0.3 2050 1.2 1.0 -0.1
Land Use Projection under the Three scenarios of Development
BAU PF SF
2020 36.2 47.3 2030 26.0 48.2 2040 18.5 48.8 2050 10.2 48.0
CM1 PF SF
2020 39.1 46.8 2030 34.8 47.1 2040 29.5 47.1 2050 22.9 47.1
CM2 PF SF
2020 42.5 46.7 2030 41.2 46.4 2040 39.7 46.4 2050 37.9 46.4 Total Deforestasi
(2011-2050) BAU: 34 Mha CM1: 21 Mha CM2: 8 Mha
Timber and Palm Oil Plantation Development
BaU (000 ha) 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Timber Plantation (HTI) 4,827 6,327 7,827 9,327 10,827
Palmoil 8,923 12,379 17,175 23,828 32,618
Secondary Forest (HPH) 46,475 47,301 48,283 48,842 48,842
CM1 (000 ha) 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Timber Plantation (HTI) 4,827 6,827 8,827 10,827 12,827
Palmoil 8,923 11,522 14,879 19,214 24,811
Secondary Forest (HPH) 46,475 46,888 47,172 47,172 47,172
CM2 (000 ha) 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Timber Plantation (HTI) 4,827 7,477 10,127 12,777 14,500
Palmoil 8,923 9,847 10,866 11,991 13,233
Secondary Forest (HPH) 46,475 46,475 46,475 46,475 46,475
Food Balance and Palm Oil Export
Production surplus after deducted with
consumption (excluded biofuel)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
2010 2030 BaU
2030 CM1
2030 CM2
000ton
Palm Oil Export/Import
Surplus: Rice, cassava, industrial crop (rubber), oil crops Deficit: Sugar, fruits/nuts, vegetables, maize
Animal Head and Area for Feed BaU
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
000ha
000headandKg/day/head
Dairy Cattle Other Cattle Buffolo
Sheep Goat Horse
Swine Native Chicken Egg chicken/Layer
Broiler duck Area for Feed
Projection of production
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BaU 118,022 151,522 185,022 218,022 250,522 CM1 126,068 173,234 220,201 266,868 313,534 CM2 134,113 200,363 266,613 332,863 375,930
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000
Producon(000m3)
Wood Produc on BaU CM1 CM2
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BaU 132,996 196,866 291,410 431,359 630,000 CM1 132,996 178,735 240,205 322,816 433,838 CM2 132,996 162,121 197,625 240,904 293,660
- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000
Producon(000ton)
Palm Oil (FB) BaU CM1 CM2
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BaU 18,328 18,683 19,042 19,407 19,775
CM1 18,328 19,952 21,718 23,637 25,723
CM2 18,328 20,513 22,949 25,660 28,643
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Producon(000ton)
Maize BaU CM1 CM2
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BaU 36,544 38,107 39,960 42,493 44,720
CM1 36,544 40,422 45,260 49,110 53,241
CM2 36,544 39,423 42,717 44,708 46,564
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Producon(000ton)
Rice BaU CM1 CM2 Target RKTN, 360 Mm3 Target GAPKI, 660 Mt FB
Produksi Sawit (CPO)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Producon(MtCPO)
GAPKI BaU CM1 CM2
Palm Oil 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BaU Luas (000 ha) 8,923 12,379 17,175 23,828 32,618
Yield (t ffb/ha) 23 25 26 28 30
CM1 Luas (000 ha) 8,923 11,522 14,879 19,214 24,811
Yield (t ffb/ha) 23 24 25 26 27
CM2 Luas (000 ha) 8,923 9,847 10,866 11,991 13,233
Yield (t ffb/ha) 23 26 28 31 34
Produksi Kayu (Juta m 3 )
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BAU
Afforesta on Timber Planta on Natural Forest
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CM1
Afforesta on Timber Planta on Natural Forest
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CM2
Afforesta on Timber Planta on Natural Forest
Laju Deforestasi:
BAU: 0.856 Mha/y CM1: 0.528 Mha/y CM2: 0.206 Mha/y
Total Deforestasi (2011-2050) BAU: 34 Mha CM1: 21 Mha CM2: 8 Mha
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
8,763 8,710 8,700 8,732 8,807
BaU - - - - -
CM1 - 466 958 1,491 2,082
CM2 - 453 902 1,351 1,808
BaU - - - - -
CM1 - 412 849 1,325 1,855
CM2 - 400 798 1,197 1,605
Number Of Livestock (000 heads) 443,183 460,506 478,505 497,209 516,643
BaU - - - - -
CM1 - 2,958 11,602 26,391 47,813
CM2 - 2,958 11,602 26,391 47,813
BaU - - - - -
CM1 - 79 314 725 1,333
CM2 - 79 314 725 1,333
14,585 14,585 14,585 14,585 14,585
BaU - - - - -
CM1 - 385 996 1,890 3,149
CM2 - 550 1,341 2,384 3,562
14,033 - - - -
BaU - 175 351 526 702
CM1 - 523 1,045 1,568 2,091
CM2 - 1,038 2,076 3,115 4,153
BaU - 526 1,052 1,579 2,105
CM1 - 1,045 2,091 3,136 4,181
CM2 - 1,730 3,461 5,191 6,922
Available area for water managemenet in Peat (000 ha)
Water Managemenet on peatland
Reforestation with rotation (000 ha)
Regeneration (000 ha)
Available area for reforestation and regeneration (000 ha)
Biogas Plant
Area and Mitigation Measures
Low Emission Variety (Rice)
Irrigation Management
Available area for implementing methan emission reduction from Rice Cultivation
Feed Supplement
