The foregoing evidence reveals a classic ‘glass half full’ scenario when it comes to the performance of social protection policies during the pandemic. PDS, MGNREGA, NSAP, and Jan Dhan, which together account for almost the entirety of the Government of India’s additional fiscal response, formed a crucial safety net and prevented extreme distress.
But the net excluded roughly half the vulnerable households along with extremely precarious groups such as inter-state migrant workers in casual wage work who suffered the most. If India is not to let its people down so badly again in the future, a much stronger and more comprehensive system of social protection must be put in place over the next few years. We conclude this report with the next chapter which proposes some policy measures for the road ahead.
Endnotes
1 The chapter draws extensively on Kapoor and Basole (2020).
2 This section draws on Basole (2021) and on https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the- covid-19-fiscal-response-and-indias-standing/
article32154153.ece
3 See Agarwal et al (2020) for details on as well as shortcomings of PMGKY: https://www.
idfcinstitute.org/site/assets/files/15623/final_
white_paper_pmgky-2-1.pdf
4 In addition to the fiscal measures, there were significant monetary measures, such as the
Emergency Credit Loan Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for MSMEs and the RBI’s liquidity response. The estimated size of all the measures combined was around I30 lakh crores or 15 percent of GDP.
Here we focus mainly on the fiscal measures, the monetary response is outside the scope of our analysis. See thehindubusinessline.com/data- stories/data-focus/whats-influencing-the-size-of- indias-covid-19-relief-stimulus/article33171458.ece.
See https://prsindia.org/policy/report-summaries/
analysis-aatma-nirbhar-bharat-abhiyaan for more details on the entire Atmanirbhar Bharat package.
5 The size of India’s fiscal response as recorded in the International Monetary Fund’s Covid-19 policy tracker is much higher at 3.2 per cent of GDP. This includes capital expenditures announced in the 2020-21 budget as well as longer term spending such as the Production Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme and credit-based support to businesses. See https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/
Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19#I
6 https://impactsofcovid.in/data-dashboard
7 On average 9.8 kgs of rice/wheat and 0.9 kgs of pulses per member were received. However, only 49 per cent received pulses along with cereals. And
as low as 2 per cent in West Bengal and 14 per cent in Madhya Pradesh.
8 https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/
govt-to-provide-free-food-grains-to-poor- under-pm-garib-kalyan-ann-yojana-in-may-june/
article34392466.ece
9 https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/poverty- inequality/Covid-19-relief-are-women-jan-dhan- accounts-the-right-choice-for-cash-transfers.html
10 The report describes it thus: “During the COVID-19 lockdown in India, more than 1 million users called into the platforms during the first two months of the lockdown itself, and over 20,000 voice reports were left by the people, describing their experiences or reporting grievances or asking for assistance to access social protection schemes.
The primary data of audio recordings used to fulfil this research objective was obtained through Gram Vaani’s community media platforms.” (p. 15).
11 https://www.rcrc.in/
12 We do not focus on the effect on agricultural supply chains and the farm economy in general. The reader is referred to the following studies: http://
www.networkideas.org/featured-themes/2020/04/
agricultural-supply-chains-during-the-covid-19- lock-down-a-study-of-market-arrivals-of-seven-key- food-commodities-in-india/, (Ramakumar 2020;
Narayanan and Saha 2020)
13 https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/house- praise-for-employment-scheme-modi-panned/
cid/1806621
14 See this article for a summary of the research paper: https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/
poverty-inequality/does-workfare-work-mnrega- during-covid-19.html
15 https://www.business-standard.com/article/
economy-policy/govt-uses-off-record-whatsapp- instructing-states-to-cut-back-work-for-
7. Effectiveness of the Covid-19 policy response
17 The relative functioning of MGNREGA in these two states has been similar in the past years as well.
Dutta et al. (2012) document the implementation of MGNREGA in different states using NSSO data from 2009-10. They found that Karnataka had a rationing rate (share of rural households who wanted work but did not get it) of 65 per cent in 2009-10, as compared to Rajasthan with only 16 per cent.
18 https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/poverty- inequality/covid-19-how-well-are-government- schemes-supporting-bihar-s-vulnerable-populations.
html
19 https://thewire.in/labour/mnrega-cushion-job- losses-during-the-pandemic-covid-19-crisis
20 https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/
bangalore/students-enrol-in-mgnrega-programme- to-pay-for-higher-education/article33999396.ece
21 https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/
demand-for-mgnrega-work-spikes/article34453439.
ece
22 https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the- need-for-a-million-worksites-now/article31665949.
ece, https://thewire.in/rights/covid-19-lockdown- nrega-centre-boost-budget
23 https://www.business-standard.com/
article/economy-policy/covid-19-govt-directs- states-to-transfer-cash-to-construction- workers-120032400746_1.html, https://www.
deccanherald.com/business/2-crore-construction- workers-get-nearly-rs-5000-crore-cash-aid-in- lockdown-852839.html
24 Consultation with Reema Nanavaty, SEWA
25 https://www.business-standard.com/article/
news-cm/epfo-settles-94-41-lakh-claims-during- pandemic-disburses-rs-35445-crores-during-april- august-2020-120090900530_1.htm
26 https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/
economy/finance/epfo-settles-60-88-lakh-covid-19- advance-claims-releases-rs-15255-crore-till-jan-31/
articleshow/80753157.cms
27 E.g. see https://www.dvara.com/research/
resources/notes/interventions-of-states-in- response-to-covid-19-outbreak/ and https://
prsindia.org/covid-19/notifications
28 https://www.dailyo.in/politics/nitish-kumar- bihar-cm-pds-ration-card/story/1/33319.html
29 Consultation with Uma Mahadevan Principal Secretary, Panchayat Raj, Dept. of Rural Development and Panchayat Raj, Government of Karnataka, and Head of the Covid Task Force consisting of government and civil society members.
30 For e.g. see the controversy over Delhi’s recent Mukhya Mantri Ghar Ghar Ration Yojana' (MMGGRY).
31 https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/
karnataka/govt-promises-to-purchase-saris-to-help- weavers/article32575414.ece
32 Consultation with Uma Mahadevan Principal Secretary, Ministry of Rural Development,
Government of Karnataka, and Head of the Covid Task Force consisting of government and civil society members.
33 There were news reports of an urban employment guarantee programme being under discussion at the Central level but no such programme has yet been announced. See https://www.livemint.com/news/
india/the-growing-clamour-for-an-urban-jobs- scheme-11601903485203.html
34 https://www.livemint.com/news/india/the- great-financial-crunch-how-the-pandemic-sank- indian-states-11616664043231.html
35 https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/
odisha-govt-plans-to-launch-employment-scheme- for-urban-poor-101611422573713.html
36 https://www.investindia.gov.in/siru/changing- landscape-csr-india-during-covid-19
37 https://www.sattva.co.in/publication/
research-domestic-institutional-philanthropy-in- india/#:~:text=Key%20Findings&text=67%25%20 of%20INR%2018.6k,funds%20committed%20to%20 PM%20CARES.
38 According to this report (available here: https://
www.hurunindia.net/edelgive-hurun-india-
philanthropy-l ), Azim Premji Foundation (and other related institutions as well as Mr. Azim Premji in his personal capacity) contributed approximately Rs 8,000 crores (with education as the primary cause supported; within this Rs 1,125 directly towards Covid relief). Other prominent contributors include Mr. Shiv Nadar (Rs. 795 crores) followed by Mr.
Mukesh Ambani (Rs. 458 crores).
39 https://www.ciicovid19update.in/blog. Affiliated and other organisations include: Young Indians, CII Foundation, Indian Women Network, CII Membership, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers and Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India.
40 http://ficci.in/sector/report/20588/COVID-19_
Interventions-by-Companies.pdf
41 https://nasscomfoundation.org/fight-against- covid-19/#:~:text=NASSCOM%20Foundation%20 can%20help%20you,solutions%20to%20tackle%20 COVID%2D19
42 https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/
karnataka/15-smart-kiosks-to-be-set-up-for-covid- 19-testing/article31687900.ece
43 https://jan-sahas-website.s3.ap-south-1.
amazonaws.com/COVID-19+Report+(100+days).pdf
44 https://www.zomato.com/blog/covid-19- initiatives
45 A large sample survey of 300,000 households is planned over six months by the Labour Bureau.
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/govt- to-track-3l-migrant-households-1-5l-cos-to- assess-covid-19-impact-on-jobs-11617192386437.
html, https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.
aspx?PRID=1709013
46 https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/govt- has-no-data-of-migrant-workers-death-loss-of-job/
47 It is worth noting here that even during normal times, inter-state migrants have not been able to avail of subsidised grains in their destination states.
And even for intra-state migrants, it is often not possible to avail of their entitlement where they work. Not only that but within-town migration can be a problem for the system as well, since the urban poor often move to different locations in a city, and may end up several kilometers from their regular fair-price shop. An extension of this problem is faced by intra-state migrants. These are typically urban problems. Hence the system generally works much better in rural areas where mobility is less and local-level institutions function better.
8. Policy recommendations for the short and medium term