Changes of Crop Yields - Agriculture Production in India

Chapter-I: Introduction and Review of Literature

1.3: Agriculture Production in India

1.5.2: Changes of Crop Yields

per annum during 1990-93 to 2003-06 (post-reform era) which reflects the negative impact of economic reforms on agricultural performance in India. During the period, the growth rate of agricultural output of Assam decelerated to 0.67 percent per annum which was lower than the eastern region‟s growth rate. Thus, regional inequalities were accentuated during this period. The main reason for the deceleration of growth during the post-reform period was decline in investment in irrigation and other rural infrastructure (Bhalla and Singh, 2009).

Sen (2011) said, “by taking the long time series data of Indian agriculture output or GDP from agriculture, it is difficult to find a positive growth continuously for more than four years. Now, it is more than eight years since we had negative growth. The overall GDP is growing at over 9 percent per annum while agriculture is growing at about 3 to 3.5 percent and the farmers are obviously falling behind.” The main component of growth of value output is growth of yield, since there is not much scope to expand the sown area. Productivity per acre has fluctuated much more than sown area, and output has grown mainly through increase in productivity per acre. Fluctuations in productivity are measured by the co-efficient of variation and they were found to be highest during 1990-93 to 2003-06, the post-reform period.

North- western

4093 5025 6423 9244 10958 2.53 3.71 1.32 2.43

Central 2654 2763 3464 4551 6367 1.49 2.77 2.62 2.16

Southern 4873 5873 6848 9178 10244 1.91 2.97 0.85 1.83

Eastern 4338 4671 4944 6894 8314 0.73 3.38 1.45 1.60

Assam 5728 6241 6907 7998 8989 1.05 1.48 0.90 1.11

All-India 3738 4257 5090 6957 8460 1.73 3.17 1.52 2.01

CV (%) 50.13 50.19 42.75 42.59 36.98 57.93 49.87 78.28 35.41

Source: As in earlier table

Table 1.8 shows that during 1962-65 to 2003-06, at the all-India level while the value of output grew at a CAGR of 2.36 percent per annum, land yield registered a growth rate of about 2.01 percent per annum, accounting for as much as 85.17 percent of growth of output, while the contribution of area growth was only 14.83 percent. Not surprisingly, the pattern of CAGR of yield is similar to that of output. Increase in yield was recorded by all the four regions in India, the highest increase having been registered by the north- western region followed by the southern, eastern and central regions, in that order during 2003-06. As far as average value of yield is concerned, Assam fared better than all-India level and that of other states of eastern region. During 1962-65 to 1980-83, north-western states registered significant increase in the yield levels and growth. As compared with the yield growth rate of 1.73 percent per annum at the all-India level, the north-western region recorded growth rate of 2.53 percent per annum while it was only 1.05 percent per annum in Assam. In maturing of Green Revolution period, the growth rate of yield accelerated not only at the all-India level, but in most states and regions.

Eastern region recorded a very high yield growth rate of 3.38 percent per annum where Assam registered only 1.48 percent. The growth rate of yield was lower in the post- reform era than in the pre-reform era. During the post-liberalization period, the growth rates of both agricultural output and yield slowed down. All regions recorded a deceleration in their yield growth rates. The major reason of this deceleration was the decline in public investment in irrigation and water management, scientific research and non-availability of yield-raising cost-reducing new technology (Bhalla and Singh, 2009).

1.5.3: Limitation in Cropped Area:

Area under cultivation for different crops in India has gradually exhausted. In 1980s, there has been a remarkable performance of agriculture in India and the growth rate of production of all crops was 3.21 percent per annum. While the earlier period 1949-50 to 1964-65 also had a relatively high growth rate (3.13% per annum), a major part of it was contributed by area expansion. In contrast, the growth of agriculture during 1980-81 to 1991-92 was almost entirely due to yield improvement. In this regard, Alagh and Bhalla (1979) have pointed out that “the task of accelerating growth rates in agriculture is becoming more difficult, given the fact that the total cultivable area in the country is virtually exhausted and it is consequently no longer possible to increase output substantially by increasing area alone”. Vaidyanathan (2010) also said, area growth at the national level was decelerating in all three sub-periods i.e., between 1950 and 1971, during 1971-87 and since 1987.

Net area sown has registered a rapid deceleration in its growth over time in India due to increase in rural habitations, forestation, urbanization and industrialization (Bhalla and Singh, 2000). During 1962-65 to 1980-83, net area sown rose at a rate of 0.15 percent per annum at the all-India level. This growth rate decelerated to -0.05 percent per annum during 1990-93 to 2003-06. All the regions except the central region recorded a deceleration in their net sown area during this period (Bhalla and Singh, 2009).

Table-1.9: Region wise level and growth of Net Sown Area during 1962-65, 1970-73, 1980-83, 1990-93

and 2003-06: (44 crops) Regions Annual Average Net Sown Area (in‟000ha) Annual Compound Growth Rate

(in %)*

1962-65 1970-73 1980-83 1990-93 2003-06 (A) (B) (C) (D) North

Western

25860 26031 26356 26306 26516 0.11 -0.02 0.06 0.06

Central 58139 60150 61918 63149 63978 0.35 0.20 0.10 0.23

Southern 30021 29958 28877 29423 27851 -0.22 0.19 -0.42 -0.18

Eastern 22041 21687 22287 21935 21262 0.065 -0.16 -0.24 -0.09

Source: As in earlier table

As replicated in the table, the CAGR of net area sown has declined in all the regions in India from the period of 1962-65 to 2003-06 even negative in some regions.

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