Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1 (28 October to 03 November 2021) and Week 2 (04 to 10 November, 2021)
Rainfall for week 1 (28 October to 03 November, 2021):
Northeast monsoon is likely to remain active during 1st half of the week in association of the low pressure area.
o A Low Pressure Area lies over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka coast and the associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 3.1 km above mean sea level. It is likely to move slowly to westwards during next 4-5 days towards Lakshadweep areas and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea hours
o Under its influence, fairly widespread to wide spread rainfall with
Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated/few places very likely over Tamilnadu and isolated heavy rainfall over Kerala & Mahe during 28th October-01st November, 2021. Heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh during 28th-31st October with isolated very heavy falls on 29th October 2021. Heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over Coastal & South Interior Karnataka on 31st and over Rayalaseema during 29th-30th October, 2021.
Thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Kerala & Mahe, Tamilnadu, Puducherry &
Karaikal and Coastal Andhra Pradesh during 28th October-01st November and over Rayalaseema during 29th October-01st November, 2021.
o A feeble Western Disturbance is likely to affect Jammu and Kashmiri causing isolated light to moderate rain snow over the area during 1-2 Oct
o Light to moderate isolated rainfall activity likely over northeastern states and Odisha during most days of the week.
4 | P a g e week.
o Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over south Peninsular India including Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe, southern Karnataka and south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and mainly dry weather over rest parts of the country, outside Western Himalayan region, northeastern states, west Bengal and Sikkim, Odisha, where it is likely to be normal to below normal.
Synoptic System and Rainfall for week 2 (04 to 10 November, 2021):
Another Low Pressure area is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal and move westwards without much intensification during 6th – 11th November 2021.
o Due to easterly wave, northeast monsoon is likely to remain normal to active conditions over southwest Peninsular including over Kerala and Lakshadweep area.
Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over most parts of south Peninsular India isolated light rainfall over Maharashtra.
o Overall rainfall activity is likely to be near normal to above normal over Kerala, Karnataka Maharashtra, normal over remaining parts of south Peninsular India, It is likely to be normal to below normal over Western Himalayan region, northeastern states, west Bengal and Sikkim and Odisha
Minimum Temperatures during Week 1 (28 October to 03 November 2021) and Week 2 (03 to 09 November, 2021)
Minimum Temperatures during week 1 (28 October to 03 November, 2021):
o Minimum temperatures likely to be appreciably below normal (-3.0°C to -4.0°C) at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and western parts of Uttarakhand and below normal (-2°C to - 3.0°C) at many places over remaining parts of northwest India, central, peninsular India, and east and northeast India outside Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and parts of Karnataka and adjoining areas, where they are likely to be above normal (+1°C
5 | P a g e Minimum Temperatures for week 2 (04 TO 10 November, 2021):
o There is likely gradual fall in minimum temperatures over most parts of the country during week 2.
o These are likely to be normal to below normal over most parts of the country. (Refer Annex V)
5. Cyclogenesis forecast for North Indian Ocean during next 2 weeks
At present, a low pressure area lay over southwest BoB off Sri Lanka coast. It is likely to move westwards during next 48 hours. Most of the numerical models including IMD GFS, NCEP-GFS, GEFS, NCUM, NEPS and ECMWF are not indicating any cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) during their respective forecast periods.
IMD GPP index is also not indicating any significant zone for cyclogenesis over the region. However majority of these models are indicating feeble Low Pressure areas or easterly wave troughs moving east to west along the southern parts of the BoB and the Arabian Sea (AS) during the entire forecast period, with occasional amplification. MME CFSV2 Model is indicating 70-80% probability of cyclogenesis over southwest BoB and Gulf of Mannar during 28th – 30th October.
In view of the above, no cyclogenesis is predicted over the north Indian Ocean during the forecast period. However, the current Low pressure Area located over southwest BoB off Sri Lanka coast is likely to move nearly westwards during next 3-4 days across Gulf of Mannar & Comorin area and emerge into southeast AS around 2nd November. The previous week low pressure area is likely to continue to move nearly westwards across south Arabian Sea as an easterly wave perturbation towards western parts of AS during the subsequent 4-5 days. Also another Low Pressure area is likely to form over southeast BoB and move westwards without much intensification during 6th – 11th November 2021.
Next weekly update will be issued on next Thursday i.e. 04 Nov 2021(Happy Diwali)
(1) Area Weighted Rainfall (mm) for the country as a whole : Rainfall
Actual Normal
% Dep.
(2) Categorywise No. of Subdivisions & % Area of the Country :
L. Excess Excess Normal Deficient L. Deficient No Rain
(3) Categorywise comparative distribution of Sub-divisions ( cumulative rainfall ) and All India % Rainfall Departure for last five years since October 1st
Category L. Excess Excess Normal Deficient L. Deficient No Rain All India
% Dep.
(4) Categorywise comparative % distribution of districts ( cumulative rainfall ) for last five years since October 1st
Category 28-10-2020 30-10-2019 24-10-2018 25-10-2017 26-10-2016
L. Excess 47% 17% 34% 3% 18% 0%
Excess 12% 11% 15% 5% 11% 23%
Normal 15% 13% 16% 7% 13% 15%
Deficient 19% 19% 17% 14% 10% 23%
L. Deficient 7% 14% 14% 40% 16% 34%
No Rain 0% 26% 4% 31% 32% 5%
HIMACHAL PRADESH E(32)---->LE(111) JHARKHAND LE(78)---->E(55)
J & K AND LADAKH N(15)---->LE(210) GUJARAT REGION E(30)---->N(13)
WEST RAJASTHAN E(20)---->LE(66) KONKAN & GOA E(22)---->N(9)
MARATHWADA LE(65)---->E(40)
VIDARBHA E(26)---->N(3)
CHHATTISGARH N(-14)---->D(-30)
TELANGANA N(-18)---->D(-34)
LAKSHADWEEP E(34)---->N(19)
5 1 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
3 4 5 (15%) 15% 3 (7%) 7%
12 6 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
2 2 4 (12%) 8 (22%)
3 6 9 (23%) 8 (31%)
27-10-2021 20-10-2021 27-10-2021 20-10-2021
11 17 18 (50%)
85%
17 (40%) 93%
12.2 16.1 70.5 58.3
30% 109% 38% 39%
27-10-2021 20-10-2021 27-10-2021 20-10-2021
15.9 33.7 97.1 81.0
Improvements Deteriorations
26%
31%
22
4
38% 7% 6%
74%
57%
-51%
8 7 4
6
9 10
6
0
26-10-2016
Week Ending on Cumulative upto
24-10-2018 0
38%
0 30-10-2019
7 27-10-2021
Category Week Ending on Cumulative upto
11 5
4 5
8
-17%
16%
3 4
1
0
26%
0
7 0
9
27-10-2021
41%
9 0
10
25-10-2017
42%
65%
54%
18 11
15%
3 6
28-10-2020
6 7
33%
6
S. METEOROLOGICAL Week 21-10-2021 TO 27-10-2021 PERIOD: 01-10-2021 TO 27-10-2021 NO. SUBDIVISIONS ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP. CAT. ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP. CAT.
EAST & NORTH EAST INDIA 21.7 16.5 147.7 122.6
1 ARUNACHAL PRADESH 49.0 26.5 85% LE 123.1 180.4 -32% D
2 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA 31.3 16.9 85% LE 137.9 147.1 -6% N
3 N M M T 26.5 23.6 12% N 86.2 154.0 -44% D
4 SHWB & SIKKIM 38.3 15.4 149% LE 273.1 147.9 85% LE
5 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL 6.7 19.9 -67% LD 187.8 116.3 62% LE
6 JHARKHAND 0.5 10.8 -95% LD 111.7 72.2 55% E
7 BIHAR 6.9 4.8 44% E 189.6 60.9 211% LE
NORTH WEST INDIA 19.6 2.3 67.0 21.9
1 EAST U.P. 0.1 1.2 -92% LD 87.5 37.0 137% LE
2 WEST U.P. 3.8 0.5 658% LE 92.3 21.5 330% LE
3 UTTARAKHAND 0.9 2.2 -60% LD 203.1 33.4 508% LE
4 HAR. CHD & DELHI 4.4 0.7 523% LE 25.9 9.2 181% LE
5 PUNJAB 22.5 0.5 4394% LE 36.3 8.3 337% LE
6 HIMACHAL PRADESH 26.7 4.3 520% LE 54.9 26.0 111% LE
7 J & K AND LADAKH 70.6 6.2 1038% LE 100.7 32.5 210% LE
8 WEST RAJASTHAN 4.1 0.9 361% LE 11.1 6.7 66% LE
9 EAST RAJASTHAN 0.3 1.1 -70% LD 33.3 13.6 145% LE
CENTRAL INDIA 0.2 7.4 59.0 51.2
1 ODISHA 0.6 12.7 -95% LD 76.5 94.7 -19% N
2 WEST MADHYA PRADESH 0.0 2.3 -99% LD 76.2 28.7 165% LE
3 EAST MADHYA PRADESH 0.0 3.8 -100% NR 29.3 33.3 -12% N
4 GUJARAT REGION 0.0 2.2 -100% NR 19.5 17.2 13% N
5 SAURASHTRA & KUTCH 0.5 2.7 -81% LD 28.6 15.0 90% LE
6 KONKAN & GOA 1.2 11.9 -90% LD 116.2 106.5 9% N
7 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA 0.0 10.1 -100% NR 92.3 69.9 32% E
8 MARATHWADA 0.0 10.7 -100% NR 95.9 68.7 40% E
9 VIDARBHA 0.0 10.3 -100% NR 56.5 55.0 3% N
10 CHHATTISGARH 0.1 10.8 -99% LD 39.5 56.8 -30% D
SOUTH PENINSULA 32.2 32.7 168.3 137.4
1 A & N ISLAND 23.1 48.5 -52% D 399.8 250.5 60% LE
2 COASTAL A. P.& YANAM 10.3 38.9 -73% LD 75.5 165.5 -54% D
3 TELANGANA 0.0 16.6 -99% LD 56.5 85.7 -34% D
4 RAYALASEEMA 30.1 25.8 17% N 128.2 114.2 12% N
5 TAMIL., PUDU. & KARAIKAL 42.8 49.0 -13% N 193.6 154.4 25% E
6 COASTAL KARNATAKA 52.7 31.9 65% LE 285.4 169.7 68% LE
7 N. I. KARNATAKA 10.6 17.2 -38% D 87.7 99.7 -12% N
8 S. I. KARNATAKA 70.6 28.1 151% LE 259.9 128.4 102% LE
9 KERALA & MAHE 92.6 64.6 43% E 547.8 268.2 104% LE
10 LAKSHADWEEP 23.5 31.9 -26% D 148.1 124.7 19% N
COUNTRY AS A WHOLE 15.9 12.2 97.1 70.5
CATEGORYWISE NO. OF SUBDIVISIONS & % AREA (SUBDIVISIONAL) OF THE COUNTRY
Week 21-10-2021 TO 27-10-2021 PERIOD: 01-10-2021 TO 27-10-2021 CATEGORY
LARGE EXCESS EXCESS NORMAL DEFICIENT LARGE DEFICIENT NO RAIN
-1% 23%
30% 38%
31% 20%
751% 206%
-98% 15%
SUBDIVISIONAL
% AREA OF COUNTRY SUBDIVISIONS % AREA OF COUNTRY
5 15%
8%
4%
30% 18
SUBDIVISIONS
NO. OF SUBDIVISIONAL NO. OF
5 15% 0 0%
11 50%
2
3 3%
9 23%
4 12%
(iii) 3
12 40% 0 0%
Note: The rainfall values are rounded off upto one place of decimal.
S. Week 21-10-2021 TO 27-10-2021 PERIOD: 01-10-2021 TO 27-10-2021
NO. ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP. CAT. ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP. CAT.
21.7 16.5 31% E 147.7 122.6 20% E
1 ARUNACHAL PRADESH 49 26.5 85% LE 123.1 180.4 -32% D
2 ASSAM 29.8 15.1 97% LE 120.2 119.2 1% N
3 MEGHALAYA 36.9 23.8 55% E 203.3 252.1 -19% N
4 NAGALAND 22.8 15.4 48% E 72.9 110.8 -34% D
5 MANIPUR 27.8 28.3 -2% N 66.8 147.8 -55% D
6 MIZORAM 31.6 25.8 23% E 105.3 190.8 -45% D
7 TRIPURA 20.1 24.5 -18% N 103.7 160 -35% D
8 SIKKIM 19.7 21.1 -7% N 298 160.7 85% LE
9 WEST BENGAL 15.9 18.4 -13% N 206.8 123.1 68% LE
10 JHARKHAND 0.5 10.8 -95% LD 111.7 72.2 55% E
11 BIHAR 6.9 4.8 44% E 189.6 60.9 211% LE
19.6 2.3 751% LE 67 21.9 206% LE
1 UTTAR PRADESH 1.6 1 58% E 89.5 30.6 192% LE
2 UTTARAKHAND 0.9 2.2 -60% LD 203.1 33.4 508% LE
3 HARYANA 4 0.6 573% LE 24.8 9.1 173% LE
4 CHANDIGARH (UT) 33.3 1.1 2931% LE 41 20.8 97% LE
5 DELHI 12.4 0.4 2995% LE 56.7 10.4 445% LE
6 PUNJAB 22.5 0.5 4394% LE 36.3 8.3 337% LE
7 HIMACHAL PRADESH 26.7 4.3 520% LE 54.9 26 111% LE
8 JAMMU & KASHMIR(UT) 70.6 6.2 1038% LE 100.7 32.5 210% LE
LADAKH(UT) 3.1 0.5 522% LE 4.2 3.5 19% N
9 RAJASTHAN 2.5 1 146% LE 20.9 9.8 114% LE
0.2 7.4 -98% LD 59 51.2 15% N
1 ODISHA 0.6 12.7 -95% LD 76.5 94.7 -19% N
2 MADHYA PRADESH 0 3 -99% LD 55.8 30.7 82% LE
3 GUJARAT 0.3 2.4 -88% LD 24.2 15.9 52% E
4 DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI (UT) 0 5.1 -100% NR 114.2 39.1 192% LE
5 DAMAN & DIU (UT) 0.2 6.1 -96% LD 19.2 33.1 -42% D
6 GOA 10.9 19.2 -43% D 223.3 147.2 52% E
7 MAHARASHTRA 0 10.4 -100% NR 82.7 68.1 21% E
8 CHHATISGARH 0.1 10.8 -99% LD 39.5 56.8 -30% D
32.2 32.7 -1% N 168.3 137.4 23% E
1 A & N ISLAND (UT) 23.1 48.5 -52% D 399.8 250.5 60% LE
2 ANDHRA PRADESH 18.6 33.5 -44% D 97.7 144.3 -32% D
3 TELANGANA 0 16.6 -99% LD 56.5 85.7 -34% D
4 TAMILNADU 42.9 48.8 -12% N 193.5 154.1 26% E
5 PUDUCHERRY (UT) 22 83.1 -74% LD 207.7 209.4 -1% N
6 KARNATAKA 43.9 23.9 84% LE 190.7 120.4 58% E
7 KERALA 92.6 64.5 44% E 547.8 268.2 104% LE
8 LAKSHADWEEP (UT) 23.5 31.9 -26% D 148.1 124.7 19% N
15.9 12.2 30% E 97.1 70.5 38% E
CATEGORYWISE DISTRIBUTION OF NO. OF STATES
Week 21-10-2021 TO 27-10-2021 PERIOD: 01-10-2021 TO 27-10-2021
(iv)
6 EXCESS
STATES
LARGE EXCESS
NORTH WEST INDIA
LARGE DEFICIENT
9 9
DEFICIENT
6 NO. OF STATES
0
0
NO DATA 0
0 11
NORMAL
NO RAIN 2
NO. OF STATES
5
16
4
6 EAST & NORTH EAST INDIA
CENTRAL INDIA
SOUTH PENINSULA
COUNTRY AS A WHOLE
CATEGORY
S. TO
NO. LE E N D LD NR ND TOTAL
1 A & N ISLAND (UT) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3
2. ARUNACHAL PRADESH 0 1 2 8 5 0 0 16
3. ASSAM 3 7 7 7 3 0 0 27
4. MEGHALAYA 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 7
5. NAGALAND 0 1 1 8 1 0 0 11
6. MANIPUR 0 1 1 2 5 0 0 9
7. MIZORAM 0 0 1 5 2 0 0 8
8. TRIPURA 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 4
9. SIKKIM 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4
10. WEST BENGAL 10 5 2 2 0 0 0 19
11. ODISHA 1 3 9 14 3 0 0 30
12. JHARKHAND 10 6 4 4 0 0 0 24
13. BIHAR 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 38
14. UTTAR PRADESH 59 6 6 3 0 1 0 75
15. UTTARAKHAND 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
16. HARYANA 18 0 3 0 1 0 0 22
17. CHANDIGARH (UT) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
18. DELHI 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
19. PUNJAB 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
20. HIMACHAL PRADESH 10 1 1 0 0 0 0 12
21. JAMMU & KASHMIR(UT) 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 20
22. LADAKH(UT) 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2
23. RAJASTHAN 20 4 0 4 4 1 0 33
24. MADHYA PRADESH 30 1 10 8 2 0 0 51
25. GUJARAT 11 4 7 7 4 0 0 33
26. DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI (UT) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
27. DAMAN & DIU (UT) 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2
28. GOA 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2
29. MAHARASHTRA 8 10 8 8 2 0 0 36
30. CHHATISGARH 1 1 4 16 5 0 0 27
31. ANDHRA PRADESH 0 1 3 6 3 0 0 13
32. TELANGANA 1 1 7 18 6 0 0 33
33. TAMILNADU 5 16 14 3 0 0 0 38
34. PUDUCHERRY (UT) 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 4
35. KARNATAKA 16 4 6 3 1 0 0 30
36. KERALA 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 14
37. LAKSHADWEEP (UT) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
TOTAL 326 79 104 134 49 2 0 694
47% 12% 15% 19% 7% 0%
694 WHOSE DATA RECEIVED
LE E N D LD NR
17% 11% 13% 19% 14% 26%
30-10-2019 34% 15% 16% 17% 14% 4%
24-10-2018 3% 5% 7% 14% 40% 31%
25-10-2017 18% 11% 13% 10% 16% 32%
0% 23% 15% 23% 34% 5%
(v)
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF DISTRICTS IN EARLIER YEARS SINCE 1st June OF DISTRICTS OUT OF THE
CATEGORYWISE DISTRIBUTION
DATE 28-10-2020
26-10-2016
STATES PERIOD FROM : 01-10-2021 27-10-2021