There are four major patterns regarding population characteristics which persua- sively affect behaviours and beliefs surrounding natural resources in significant ways. These patterns include: (i) decreasing rates of population growth, particu- larly in North America and Western Europe; (ii) an ageing population; (iii) an increasing number and proportion of minority citizens; and (iv) a continuing redistribution of the population in urban and suburban areas.
Taken as a whole, these four patterns represent an overall situation that is fluid and dynamic. Generally, these patterns represent a public that isincreas- inglyconcerned about natural resources, but islessfamiliar and knowledgeable about those resources.
Population growth rate
Three processes serve to determine population growth: fertility, mortality and migration (Murdock and Ellis, 1991). Population growth is projected to continue to grow in the future, with anticipated maximum growth rates being reached between the years 2040 and 2050, and declining thereafter. As a result, this population growth will influence natural resource management in a number of ways. For example, as the population increases, there will be a concomitant increase in the demand for particular natural resources, such as wood fibre.
This increased demand will place more ‘pressure’ on managers of specific natural resources (such as timber resources) to provide more of that product.
The competition for various natural resources will probably increase over time.
This is particularly true in locations faced with heavy competition between differ- ent segments of society, all demanding access and use of the same resource base.
Ageing of the population
By the year 2050, it is estimated that nearly 23% of the US population will be 65 years of age or older (Spencer, 1989). Heinrichs (1991) suggests that not only is the overall population becoming older, but individuals are retiring at an earlier age. Siegel and Taeuber (1986) report that older populations will require more health-related products and a higher level of service. Regarding natural resource use, two criteria need to be considered: (i) health of the person;
and (ii) degree of engagement. Doka (1992) points out that older adults, who are healthy and seeking out new and stimulating environments, are the more likely to appreciate activities in natural environments such as parks and other protected lands. For example, there will be an increased demand for more facili- ties to be built such as resorts and marinas, with a corresponding decrease in the demand for remote, backcountry opportunities. Thus, from the perspective of providing public accommodations in natural landscapes, management will need to provide for opportunities that are physically active and amenity-rich, while at the same time allowing for the capabilities and desires of the older visitor.
Growth of ethnic diversity
Concurrent with the issue of ageing is the increase in minority populations. In North America, this is evident by the fact that Anglo/White populations tend to be older than minority populations. Minority groups represent faster growth rates within the total population when compared with Anglo/White populations. For example, minority members will grow from 25% of the overall population in the USA in 1990, to more than 40% by 2050.
Differences also emerge when examining perceptions of natural resource use. For example, within a recreation and leisure framework, Anglo visitors have often engaged in activities such as backcountry hiking and hunting. With the increasing presence of other cultures and ethnic groups, other activities may become more prevalent. In addition, recent research has suggested that culture and ethnic background have some influence on the resource users’ motivations, appeal and perceived problems concerning specific public and protected lands areas (Ewert and Pfister, 1991; Floyd, 1999).
Ethnic, racial and gender differences among the public also appear to lead to variations in how natural environments and resources are perceived and preferred among different groups (Virden and Walker, 1999). Whether or not there are differences, these findings are in line with the suggestion that the way individuals view natural environments and, by extension, natural resources can be strongly influenced by their sociocultural background (Saegert and Winkel, 1990; Williams and Patterson, 1996; Cordell and Overdevest, 2001).
On a similar note, Allison (1993) points out that simply providing opportu- nities is not a sufficient management strategy. Rather, specific actions such as taking into account the cultural aspects and expectations of a particular racial or
ethnic group need to be considered when developing resource management plans. Based on work by Hollingshead (1992) and Allison (1993), this ‘strategy building’ needs to consider the following components.
● Look for multi-forms and dimensions within a cultural group. There is no single set of characteristics or attributes that define a particular cultural group. The needs and expectations of group members are varied and not monolithic.
● Beware of using standards that are based on White or dominant group characteristics. These characteristics are often varied, change over time or have become irrelevant to the situation.
● Recognize the need to educate and communicate with users, and between the management agency and segments of the public. Certain groups favour different forms of communication for information. For example, some groups may rely on television to receive information regarding natural resources, while others will be more likely to use word-of-mouth, or leaders of the community.
Whatever the case, the public is composed of many groups, each of which has specific sets of perceptions, communication patterns and belief systems.
How the public views, perceives and uses natural resources can have profound implications for future management strategies. For example, natural resource managers will need to be sensitive to the varying needs and expectations expressed by minority visitors. Language is one obvious example in which agencies should anticipate an increased need to have multilingual specialists on staff. In addition, differences have been noted in the research literature between Hispanics and Anglos, including: (i) time orientation; (ii) interpersonal relationships; (iii) ‘power distance’ or the level of conforming to authority and regulation; and (iv) personal space (Marin and Marin, 1991).
Distribution of the population
Population distribution refers to how the residents are distributed within a given area. For example, an individual could live in a large city in the western USA, a small village in England or a remote outback location in Australia. In general, most developed countries such as those in North America, Australia and Europe have a continuing set of increasing population concentration and migration patterns based on climate and economic factors. In the USA, there has been an overall migration and increased growth of population in the southern and west- ern regions as compared with the northeastern and midwestern regions. In addi- tion, by 1990, 77.5% of the population lived in metropolitan areas, compared with 22.5% who lived in non-metropolitan or more rural environments (Long, 1988). Murdock and Ellis (1991) suggest that this trend will continue, but decrease in magnitude.
Lessinger (1987) believes that one important aspect of population distribu- tion will be the movement of populations to wildland–urban interface lands, or those lands located near large urban environments (Ewert et al., 1993), thus
increasing the fragmentation of these resources. According to Garreau (1991), this ‘micro-level migration pattern’ can already be seen in the development of
‘edge cities’. If true, this micro-level migration pattern will put intense pressure on many recreation and natural resource systems by creating adjacent development and increased impacts on remote areas.
Taken together, from a management perspective, two factors become apparent when considering the distribution of the population. First, where the majority of our citizens live will have a great influence on how they will interact with the natural resource base (Kelly, 1989). Pressure with regard to the use of these resources will increase on non-developed, open spaces, if for no other reason than increasing numbers of people will need open space and natural areas as locations to escape from ‘everyday’ life and experience rejuvenation and catharsis (Kaplan and Kaplan, 1989; Hammitt, 2000).
Second, migration patterns will also have a tremendous, often negative, impact on natural resource use such as water use, air pollution, development of agricultural lands, and so forth. In some locations, both in North America and globally, specific natural resources such as groundwater or arable land will be overwhelmed by these migrations.
Finally, understanding change in selected demographic variables implies developing a heightened awareness of emerging management needs. For example, Struglia and Winter (2002) suggest that population and demo- graphic projections can aid in addressing four environmental management challenges: (i) anticipated patterns of change in how the public uses and identi- fies with a particular natural resource or setting; (ii) the development of more effective visitor information systems, by managers and researchers, which are responsive to new cultural and/or ethnic groups; (iii) increasing growth in user numbers will probably precipitate greater levels of impacts, pollution and encroachment into wildland areas; and (iv) the need for collaborative partner- ships that can be anticipated and developed in specific areas and for predicted challenges.
The following section discusses additional forces that will serve to impact the management of natural resources.