Analysis of Crime Trends in the State and the Districts
4.4 Spatial Distribution of crimes
4.4.1 Variation in crime trends in three broad regions in the state
The State of Assam can be divided into three distinct regional divisions on the basis of geographical positioning, ethno cultural and linguistic diversities, viz. The Brahmaputra Valley, The Hills areas and The Barak Valley as follows:
1. The Brahmaputra Valley comprises of twenty two plain districts with a total area of 56194 sq. km. The Valley is named after the mighty Brahamaputra River that is flowing through a distance of 800 km from Sadia in the north eastern point to Dhubri in the western extremity. The river has been contributing to the evolution of the Brahmaputra Valley civilization since time immemorial.
2. The Hills areas consist of Karbi Anglong district and Dima Hasao district with a total area of 15322 sq. km. These two districts are in the hilly tract called the Borail Range which is situated in between the two valleys. The two less densely populated hill districts - Karbi-Anglong and Dima Hasao, separate the two valleys.
3. The Barak Valley covers three districts viz. Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi with a total area of 6922 sq.km. The Barak river passes through these three southern districts and then enters into Bangladesh.
Thus, the three broad regions comprising contiguous districts in the states are the Barak Valley districts, the Brahmaputra Valley districts and the Hills districts. These districts are examined for the period 2005-2012 since the crime data for individual districts after the latest reorganization of districts are available from 2005.
One can see wide variations on trends and changes with respect to criminal behavior among these broad regional divisions in the state.
In the hills region, incidents of total crime has been traditionally low. Both the districts are thinly populated. If one takes the period 2005-2011, there is not much growth in the total crime, growth rate being only 8%. Even if one looks at the crime rate, it is much lower than those of other two regions in the state. In fact the crime had come down from 84 to 83 per lakh population during the period. This is in contrast with the other two regions both in relation to recorded total IPC crimes and crime rates. In the Barack Valley, the growth for total IPC crimes was 23%, which in the Brahamaputra Valley, it came out to be 40% during 2005-2012. The crime rates also similarly showed higher growth in Brahmaputra Valley region (34%) which was more than the 13% growth in Barack Valley and the negative growth in Hills region. In fact, by 2011, both Barack Valley and Barhamaputra Valley regions have crossed the 200 mark in crime rate.
In may be worth mentioning that though the Hills region had been traditionally a peaceful area, it had seen onslaught of violence in terms of ethnic clashes and terror activities by rebel groups demanding separate Karbi & Dima Hasao land. However, for last few years the incidents of violence have decreased after most of the active rebel groups surrendered for peaceful negotiations with the Government. The Barack Valley area had been more or less free from organized extremist violence but still the in terms of total crimes and crime rates it has been quite high in the ladder of criminality.
All the 3 Barak Valley districts have been showing a high crime rate, even though there are differences amongst themselves. For example, Cachar was the district with the highest crime rate within the group with 254 crimes per lakh population, in 2005, which was followed by 153 in Hailakandi and 100 in Karimganj. Karimganj and Hailakandi had their crime rates increased to 167 and 206 in 2011. All of them contributed 14.21% to the total crimes in the state in 2005, but the share came down to 11.59% in 2011. This southern region of Assam had contributed to 11.25% of state‘s population in 2005 and 11.6% in 2011.
Figure 4.7
Regional Variation in Crime Rates
* (per 100,000 population)
Source: Author‘s calculation from NCRB 0
50 100 150 200 250
Hills Barak Valley Brahmaputra Valley
Crime rate*
2005 2011
The districts in Brahmaputtra Valley contributed to the major shares in terms of crime rates and population of the state as the number of districts in the valley are much more in number. Moreover, all the districts have witnessed the scourge of terrorist activities of different forms and hues. There are wide differences amongst themselves in terms of criminal activities. The only metropolitan district in the state viz Guwahati (Metro) has been having very high crime rates of 495 in 2005 and 837 in 2011 showing a very high percentage change in the period 2005-2011. Since most of the other districts in the state show the crime rates which are not comparable to that of the Metro district, one may like to treat Guwahati (Metro) as an outlier in this comparative analysis of criminal behavior. One finds that several districts have lately crossed the high figure of 200 mark in crime rates. Districts like Darrang, Dhubri, Goalpara, Nalbari had crime rates of more than 200 in 2011 and they had much lower figures in 2005. Within the range of 150-200 crime rates there are 11 districts altogether in the state. All this means that most of the districts in Assam have been showing a very high criminality. The percentage change in crime rate in Kamrup district in the period (2005-2011) had reached 197% with district of Baska coming next.