A thesis submitted to Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of. Kuladhar Saikia Research Scientist Department of Humanities and Social Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati.
Abstract
Introduction
- Effects of crime
- Statement of the Problem
- Objectives of the Study
- The hypotheses of the study
- Methodology
- Dissertation structure
Crime statistics in India reveal the increasing trend of crime in the country. To study the long term trend of total crimes and to analyze the patterns of crimes in the state of Assam.
Review of Literature
Studies on theories of criminal behaviour
Another way of looking at crimes and causation is found in the writing of Jeffery (1956) who advocated shifting attention from criminals to crimes. The issues raised here concern the social mechanisms through which certain norms of behavior become norms. legally approved by interest groups in society. He also argued that such an analysis must look at how the legal system works together with the correctional institutions that are responsible for enforcing these norms and classifying an individual as a "criminal". As noted by Don C. The main points of their discussions have been on issues related to the development and operation of the criminal justice system (Chambliss 1969, Quinney 1969).
Studies using economic approach to explain criminal behaviour
It should be noted that the "cost" of crime to criminals in the economic approach consists of two aspects. It is also felt by some authors that these approaches have not adequately analyzed the causes and effects of crime.
Empirical studies on determinants of crimes using economic approach
- Role of Deterrence factors
- Role of Socio economic factors
Imrohoroglu et al (2001) found that the strong status of the economy played an important role in the decline in crime in the US between. There have been attempts to look at the relationship between US metropolitan crime and the socio-economic environment (Kaushal et al 1975).
Empirical studies on trends and patterns of crimes in India
Almost a third of the victims were found to be in the 11-15 age group. It was found that the spatial distribution pattern points to localization of this class of crimes in the country, e.g.
Conclusion
In her study, Kalita (2014) discussed the extent of domestic violence in Assam with reference to a health survey which found that 17% of women in Assam justified male violence against women.
Sources and Reliability of Crime Data
- Generation of crime data
- Discrepancies in crime data and actual criminal behavior
- Under reporting of cases
- Under registration of cases
- The “hierarchical “counting of crime
- Need to supplement the data pool through victimization survey
- Conclusion
All these lead to undercounting of all crimes in the statistics of the NCRB. This issue of crime data discrepancy is closely related to the level of development of a society, which is most clearly reflected in the accessibility of the police.
Analysis of Crime Trends in the State and the Districts
Benefits of trend analysis
- Trends in total IPC crimes
In the fourth part of the chapter, the spatial distribution of crimes at district level was looked at. According to the objectives, time series data of crimes recorded for the period is taken to look at the crime trends in the state of Assam.
Relationship between crime and select socio economic indicators
- Relationship between state crime rate and per capita Net State Domestic Product There has been continued interest in relating crime rates to changes in
- Relationship between crime and indices of backwardness in districts
- Relationship between crime rates and urbanization
The report noted that "the homicide rate usually increases when countries move from very high to lower levels of development," as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI). The number of districts included in the four categories are four, sixteen, five and one respectively. In 2011, the crime rate in Cachar district was 247 per lakh population, with the percentage of urban population being 18%.
Spatial Distribution of crimes
- Variation in crime trends in three broad regions in the state
- Variations in inter-district crime trends
This indicates that criminal behavior in the state cannot be considered an urban phenomenon. Even if you look at the crime rate, it is much lower than the other two regions in the state. The districts in the Brahmaputtra Valley have contributed the largest share in terms of crime rate and population density of the state as the number of districts in the valley is much more.
Trends in deterrence efforts
- Arrests effected by police
- Charge sheet rates
- Conviction rate
- Recidivism
One might like to look at the ratio between the numbers arrested per IPC offense and its impact on crime rate in the state. NCRB provides data on recidivism of arrested persons in terms of new and old offenders who have previously been convicted once, twice and thrice or more. If we look at the breakdown of the arrest made for previous offences, it is seen that and 1.1% of offenders belong to the categories of offenders who have been convicted respectively once, twice, three times or more in the past, but the corresponding figures for all India is fair and 0.4%.
Conclusion
However, it would be interesting to have disaggregated data on recidivism to see what types of criminals in terms of different crimes go back to criminal activity. However, it is important to examine whether there have been changes in the relative proportion of different categories of crime in the overall criminal behavior in the state. Therefore, in the next chapter an attempt is made to analyze the behavior of various categories of crimes in the state and along with that, important selected crimes will be taken up within the broad category for further detailed analysis.
Analysis of Changes in Patterns and Composition of Crimes
Classification of crimes
Contributions of different classes of crimes to total IPC crimes
A notable shift in the proportions is also seen in other IPC offences. In fact, offenses under the heading ―other IPC offences‖ have shown a significant increase in percentage from 25% to 35% in the last decade. Offenses against body Offenses against property Offenses against public order Offenses against ECONOMY Offenses against women Other IPC offences.
Trends in different categories of crimes
Looking at the recent figures, one notices that the rate of violent crimes per 100,000 population in India has increased from 21 in 2011 to 23 in 2012. Since there has been a decline in the rate of murders and other crimes against the body was, primary contributor to this rise in violent crime rate in the state must be from abductions and kidnappings and crimes against women. At the same time, some of the militant groups are still active in a number of pockets in the state resorting to kidnappings to extort money to manage their rapidly dwindling sources of finance.
Trends in rates of different categories of crime
Growth in the rates of different categories of crimes
Judging from the estimated compound growth rates of crimes per 100,000 inhabitants in individual classes of crimes, one could observe that there are large differences in the growth of crime rates. Worryingly, under the banner of crime against women, the state has shown very high growth in terms of crime per 100,000 population. The low growth rate of body crime during this period should be noted, at 0.63%.
Crimes against body
- Murder
- Kidnapping and Abduction
The graph below shows the trend of the various body crimes in the state in the decade from 2001 to 2012. As seen from the NCRB data, most of the firearms used for homicides fall under the category of unlicensed weapons. However, most of the other districts had experienced either a mild increase or decrease in homicide rates during this period.
Crime against women
- Rape
This higher figure is mainly due to the high incidence of rape in the period 2000-2012. It is seen that the average number of rape cases for the period has more than doubled from what it was in the last decade. In the present study, the average annual compound growth rate of rape was done by taking the log-linear model.
Crimes against Property
- Robbery
- Dacoity
- Theft
- Burglary
The share of dacoity cases in property crimes has recently shown a downward trend. The share of theft in property crimes has remained constant during the period discussed. It is also important to note that the number of burglaries in the state has decreased over time.
Crime against public order
Data on riots reveal that the country has in some cases witnessed riotous situations that are indicative of underlying ills in the socio-political and ethnic fabric of society. As we have already mentioned, it is possible to analyze the increase in incidents of riots from the perspective of conflict situations that plague the country in the form of agitational politics, linguistic and ethnic conflicts, communal tensions. Ethnic classes arising from conflicts between different ethnic groups have also been a cause of concern in the area of public order.
Economic Crimes
For example, in 1980, there were 517 cases of criminal breach of trust in the country, which declined slightly in the 1990s. It appears that in some years the contribution of CBT to total economic crime was greater than that of fraud, but in the period after 1990 incidents of fraud outweighed the number of registered CBT. Looking at the disaggregated data down to the district level, it appears that there are large differences in the number of cases of economic offenses recorded in districts, e.g.
Conclusion
Determinants of Crime
Time Series and Panel Data Analysis
Theoretical Discussion
This leads to the conclusion that the expected utility of a criminal act decreases as the probability of being caught and the severity of the punishment increases. Therefore, the number of crimes an individual will commit will have a negative association with the probability of incarceration and the severity of punishment. From this one finds that any policy to reduce crime must reduce the benefits of crime, and increase the probability of apprehension or increase the cost of punishment conditional on apprehension.
Analysis of Time series data by application of VECM
To determine the long-run relationship between the non-stationary variables in question, an econometric model based on a vector error correction model was estimated in this study. Johansen's cointegration approach is used to test the long-run relationship between variables. The work of Johansen and Juselius provides a way to determine long-run relationships between variables in a series.
Specification of Models
It should be noted that when variables in a system are found to be cointegrated, they are inferred to have long-run equilibrium relationships. Where cr is the total IPC crime rate per 100,000 population, btcr is the burglary and theft crime rate per 100,000 population, pcy is the net national product per capita. It should be noted that price stability is considered an important determinant of criminal behavior.
Sources of Data
Methodology and Discussion on Empirical Results
- Unit root tests
- Co integration test
For VECM specifications, Model I of the present study can be specified in the following manner. In the present study, the expected sign is seen in the estimated coefficient of one of the deterrence variables, namely number of civilian police. As seen in the estimated comparison of total crime, the more police, the less crime is committed.
Panel Data Study
- Results and Discussion
It is also seen that inflation does not play a role in affecting crime in the short term. But it turns out that this variable is not statistically significant in this study. The reason for such an observation may be due to the low conviction rates experienced in the state.
Conclusion
It should also be noted that the positive sign of a variable such as prison population in the estimated equation turns out to be insignificant. The conclusions from the time series and panel data analysis of the current study are therefore closely related to what other researchers have found. The next chapter will discuss the resulting policy prescriptions arising from the empirical findings of this study.
Summary of Findings, Conclusion and Policy Suggestions
Principal Findings
The overall crime scenario shows an increasing trend and this is similar to that of all India behavior in terms of crime movement. However, the situations arising out of the Assam agitations in the early 1980s resulted in a sudden spurt of crimes in the state, but in the period thereafter the broad pattern of the crime scenario was in tune with the national trend. In the first phase 1974-1978, there was very little change in the total number of cases registered in the state.
