04 July, 2019

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Earth System Ministry India

Current Weather Status and

Significant Features

Advance of southwest monsoon:

o The southwest monsoon further advanced into

Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and East Uttar Pradesh; some Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh

and Jammu & Kashmir.

o Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 25°N/Long. 60°E, Lat.

25°N/Long. 65°E, Barmer, Ajmer, Gwalior, 33°N/Long. 79°E as on today, the 05 July, 2019

o Conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu &

Uttarakhand and some parts of Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi during next 24 hours

Heavy rainfall:

o Extremely heavy rainfall occurred at isolated places over over Assam & Meghalaya and Gujarat region

Maharashtra on one day each during the week.

o Heavy to very heavy rainfall Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh days the past week (27 June

Weekly Rainfall Scenario (27 June During the week, rainfall country as a whole. Details are given

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Government of India

System Science Organization Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department

Dated and Outlook for next two weeks (04 to 17

outhwest monsoon:

The southwest monsoon further advanced into remaining parts of north Arabian Sea Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and East Uttar Pradesh; some

West Uttar Pradesh & Uttarakhand and some parts of Himachal Pradesh

Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 25°N/Long. 60°E, Lat.

, Ajmer, Gwalior, Shahjahanpur, Najibabad, Mandi and Lat.

as on today, the 05 July, 2019. (Annexure I).

Conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand and some parts of Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi during next 24 hours

occurred at isolated places over Konkan & Goa

Assam & Meghalaya and Gujarat region on two days; and over and over Madhya on one day each during the week.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh

to 03 July, 2019).

June to 03 July, 2019)

was below Long Period Average (LPA) by given below:

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Dated: 04 July, 2019 7 July, 2019)

north Arabian Sea, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and East Uttar Pradesh; some more parts of machal Pradesh

Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 25°N/Long. 60°E, Lat.

Shahjahanpur, Najibabad, Mandi and Lat.

Conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand and some parts of Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi during next 24 hours

Konkan & Goa on four days, and over Madhya

Assam & Meghalaya, Madhya Pradesh on many

by 06% over the

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Regions Actual

Rainfall (mm)

Normal

Rainfall (mm) % Departure from LPA

Country as a whole 52.4 56.0 -06%

Northwest India 9.9 31.2 -68%

Central India 93.9 65.6 43%

South Peninsula 26.4 43.3 -39%

East & northeast India 78.9 99.2 -21%

The Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall for the week is given in Annexure II.

Seasonal Rainfall Scenario (01 June to 03 July, 2019)

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon season upto 03^rd July, 2019 is below LPA by 28%. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given below:

Regions Actual

Rainfall (mm)

Normal

Rainfall (mm) % Departure from LPA

Country as a whole 138.3 191.6 -28%

Northwest India 57.3 88.6 -35%

Central India 168.5 198.5 -15%

South Peninsula 125.2 179.5 -30%

East & northeast India 247.1 390.7 -37%

Cumulative seasonal rainfall is given in Annexure III.

Chief synoptic conditions as on 04 July, 2019

o A Well Marked Low Pressure Area lies over northern parts of central Madhya Pradesh

& adjoining south Uttar Pradesh.

o A trough at mean sea level runs from northwest Rajasthan to northeast Bay of Bengal across northeast Rajasthan, centre of the Well Marked Low Pressure Area over northern parts of central Madhya Pradesh & adjoining south Uttar Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand & Gangetic West Bengal. It extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level. Another branch of it runs from Gangetic West Bengal to Nagaland across Bangladesh and Assam & Meghalaya.

o A cyclonic circulation lies over northeast Arabian Sea off south Gujarat coast at 3.1 km above mean sea level.

o An off shore trough at mean sea runs from Karnataka coast to Kerala coast.

o An east-west shear zone between 3.6 km & 4.5 km above mean sea level runs roughly along Lat. 21°N.

3 Large scale features as on 04 July, 2019

o Currently, weak El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the latest forecast indicates that these conditions are likely to continue through the monsoon season and then turn to warm El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions.

o Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently observed over Indian Ocean and the latest forecast indicates these conditions are likely to continue during most part of the monsoon season.

o The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) at present lies over Western Hemisphere (Phase- 1) with weak amplitude (<1). It is very likely to move over Indian Ocean (Phase -2) with high amplitude (>1) towards end of the next one week.

Forecast for next two week

Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1(04 to 10 July, 2019) and Week 2 (11 to 17 July, 2019)

Rainfall for week 1: (04 to 10 July, 2019)

o In association with Well Marked Low Pressure Area lies over northern parts of central Madhya Pradesh & adjoining south Uttar Pradesh & due to its remnant and due to trough at lower levels over northern parts of the country, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places very likely over West Madhya Pradesh, and East Rajasthan during next 2 days, over northeast Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand & Himachal Pradesh during most days of the week.

o Intensity of rainfall is very likely to increase over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy/very heavy falls at isolated places during 2^nd half of the week 1.

o Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy/very heavy falls at isolated places are also likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal & Sikkim during most days of the week.

o Widespread rainfall with heavy/very heavy falls at isolated places is also likely along west coast during the week.

o Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is very likely to occur over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, West Bengal & Sikkim, Jharkhand, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Kerala and

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Andaman & Nicobar Islands during the week 1. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over these areas during some days of the week 1. .

o Isolated to scattered rainfall activity likely to occur over rest parts of the country (Annexure IV).

o Cumulatively, above normal rainfall likely over some parts of Madhya Pradesh &

Jharkhand, most parts of East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar & along the west coast and many parts of northeastern states. It is very likely to be normal to below normal over remaining parts of the country during week 1 (Annexure V).

Rainfall for week 2: (11 to 17 July, 2019)

o During week 2, cumulatively, above normal rainfall likely over most parts of East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal &

Sikkim and northeastern states; and normal to above normal over south Peninsular India. It is very likely to be normal to below normal over remaining parts of the country during week (Annexure V).

Cyclogenesis:

o There is no probability of cyclogenesis during next two weeks over the north Indian Ocean.

Next weekly update will be issued on next Thursday i.e. 11 July, 2019

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Annexure I

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Annexure II

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Annexure III

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Annexure IV METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2019 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 04 JUL 05 JUL 06 JUL 07 JUL 08 JUL 09 JUL 10 JUL

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS^● FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS^● SCT

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS FWS^● WS^●● WS^●● FWS FWS FWS

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS FWS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●●● WS^●● WS^● 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS^● WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM SCT FWS^● WS^● WS^● WS^●● WS^● WS

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWS FWS FWS WS^● WS^● FWS FWS

7 ODISHA FWS FWS FWS^● FWS^● FWS WS WS

8 JHARKHAND SCT FWS WS^{● TS} WS^●TS WS^● WS FWS

9 BIHAR SCT FWS ^TS WS^●TS WS^{●● TS} WS^●● WS FWS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL ^TS WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS^●

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH SCT^{● TS} FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● WS^●● FWS FWS

12 UTTARAKHAND WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS WS^● WS

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI SCT ^TS SCT FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● WS^● FWS

14 PUNJAB ISOL SCT SCT^● FWS^● WS^● WS WS^●

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH FWS^{● TS} FWS^{● TS} FWS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS FWS

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR SCT ^TS FWS SCT SCT FWS^●● FWS FWS

17 WEST RAJASTHAN SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

18 EAST RAJASTHAN WS^●● FWS^● SCT ISOL ISOL SCT SCT

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH WS^●● WS^●● FWS SCT SCT FWS^● FWS

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●

21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. FWS^● FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT

23 KONKAN & GOA WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●●

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWS^● SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS

25 MARATHAWADA SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT FWS

26 VIDARBHA FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS

27 CHHATTISGARH FWS^● FWS WS^● WS^● WS^● FWS FWS

28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM SCT SCT^● SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS

29 TELANGANA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS

30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS^● WS WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS

33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA ^FWS SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS

34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA SCT^● SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS

35 KERALA & MAHE WS^● WS^● WS FWS SCT SCT FWS^●

36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS

LEGENDS:

WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL

● Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more) FOG * SNOWFALL ^# HAILSTORM ⁺HEAT WAVE (+4.5 ^OC to +6.4 ^OC) ⁺⁺ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)

$THUNDERSTORM WITH SQUALL/GUSTY WIND ^DS/TS DUST/THUNDERSTORM ^-COLD WAVE (-4.5 ^OC to -6.4 ^OC) --SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)

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Annexure V

Forecast rainfall (mm per day)

Forecast rainfall anomaly (mm per day)