F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 02.04.2020
SUBJECT: WEEKLY STATUS REPORT ON CROP PROSPECTS AS ON 27.03.2020.
Summary
• The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 19th March – 25th March, 2020 has been 34%
lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 177% in Central India & by 41% in South Peninsula but lower than LPA by 60% in North West India and by 59% in East & North East India but lower than LPA.
• The cumulative rainfall in the country during the Pre-Monsoon season i.e. 1st March, 2020 to 25th March, 2020 has been by 46% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 220% in Central India, by 51% in North West India and by 5% in South Peninsula but lower than LPA by 4% in East & North East India.
• For Pre-Monsoon season 1st March, 2020 to 25th March, 2020 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 23 met sub-divisions constituting 67% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 06 met sub-divisions constituting 17% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, 06 met sub-divisions constituting 15% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall and 01 met sub-division constituting 01% of the total area of the country has received no rainfall.
• Central Water Commission monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 26th March, 2020 has been 88.12 BCM as against 55.33 BCM on 26.03.2019 (last year) and 58.02 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 159% of last year’s storage and 152% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
• As per 2nd Advance Estimates 2019-20, total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 625.23 lakh hectares as compared to 595.33 lakh hectares during 2018-19 (Final Estimates). This year’s area coverage so far is higher by 29.9 lakh ha. than the area coverage during the last year.
• All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 27.03.2020 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 392.57 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 371.33 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
Pre-Monsoon Season (March – May) during the week ending 25
thMarch, 2020
➢ Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
• Rainfall during the week (19th March to 25th March, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 13 met sub-divisions, normal in 03 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 15 sub-divisions and no rain in 05 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
• Cumulative rainfall (01st March, 2020 to 25th March, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 23 met sub-divisions, normal in 06 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 06 sub-divisions and no rain in 01 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st March, 2020 to 25th March, 2020
Source: IMD
➢ Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 26th Mar., 2020 to 01st April, 2020 is shown in Table 1.4.
➢ Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (25.03.2020) Cumulative (01.03.20 to 25.03.20) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 5.6 13.8 -60 LD 60.9 40.4 51 E
Central India 4.4 1.6 177 LE 21.7 6.8 220 LE
South Peninsular India 5.6 4.0 41 E 12.1 11.5 5 N
East & North-East India 7.1 17.2 -59 D 44.4 46.1 -4 N
Country as a whole 5.4 8.3 -34 D 35.5 24.3 46 E
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st March to 25 MAR
2015
23 MAR 2016
22 MAR 2017
28 MAR 2018
27 MAR 2019
25 MAR 2020 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 25 01 26
- 18 03 21
13 03 06 22
07 01 04 12
01 03 04 08
18 05 06 29 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
04 - 05 01 10
10 - 03 02 15
08 03 - 03 14
04 18 - 02 24
14 12 - 02 28
02 04 - 01 07
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation 105% 13% 14% (-) 46% (-) 36% 46%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 26 MAR 27 MAR 28 MAR 29 MAR 30 MAR 31 MAR 01 APR
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL D D D D D D
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL ISOL FWS TS # SCT TS ISOL TS ISOL SCT TS
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOL TS ISOL ISOL TS ISOL ISOL D ISOL
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA ISOL D ISOL D D D SCT TS
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL ISOL ISOL TS D D ISOL ISOL
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D ISOL D D ISOL ISOL
7 ODISHA D D ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL ISOL
8 JHARKHAND D D D D D ISOL ISOL
9 BIHAR D D D D D ISOL ISOL
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL SCT TS # D D D ISOL ISOL
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL TS # SCT TS # D D D ISOL ISOL
12 UTTARAKHAND SCT TS WS TS # ISOL TS ISOL D SCT TS SCT TS # 13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI SCT TS # FWSTS # D D D ISOL ISOL
14 PUNJAB SCT TS # WS TS ISOL D D SCT TS ISOL
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH FWSTS # WSTS ● ISOL TS ISOL D ISOL TS SCT TS # 16 JAMMU & KASHMIR FWSTS # WSTS ● SCT TS ISOL ISOL SCT TS # FWS TS #
17 WEST RAJASTSAN FWSTS # ISOL TS # D D D ISOL D
18 EAST RAJASTSAN FWSTS # SCTTS # D D D ISOL D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH FWSTS # SCTTS # D ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL D 20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCTTS # SCTTS # ISOL ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL D
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. SCT TS D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU SCT TS D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL D D ISOL ISOL D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL TS SCTTS # ISOL TS ISOL D 25 MARATHAWADA ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL TS SCTTS # SCTTS # ISOL D
26 VIDARBHA SCT TS ISOL TS D SCTTS # SCTTS # ISOL TS D
27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL D
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM D D D ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL D
29 TELANGANA ISOL D ISOL ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL D D D ISOL ISOL D D
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL D ISOL ISOL D D
33 NORTS INT.KARNATAKA ISOL D D ISOL ISOL D D
34 SOUTS INT.KARNATAKA D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
35 KERALA & MAHE ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT SCT D D D D D
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/TSUNDERSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
Table: 1.4
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 26.03.2020)
• The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
• Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs decreased to 88.12 BCM from the previous week’s level of 91.26 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 55.33 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 58.02 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 123 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
52 53
159 159
152 151
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 32% on 26/03/2019, 30% on 26/03/2018, 37% on 26/03/2017 and 28% on 26/03/2016.
Source: CWC
• There were 116 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 0 reservoir having storage between 51% to 80%, 02 reservoir having storage between 31% to 50%, 05 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage and 02 reservoir having no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2019-20 (As on 27.03.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 365 1377 377 1269 140
Requirement for Oct,2019 to March, 2020 17904 5208 1773 5186 2567 Estimated Requirement during March, 2020 1353 469 214 752 342 Cumulative Receipt upto 27.03.2020 17974 4649 1138 5123 1699 Cumulative Availability upto 27.03.2020 18339 6026 1515 6392 1839
Cumulative Sales upto 27.03.2020 17420 4676 1264 4977 1681
Closing Stock as on 27.03.2020 919 1350 251 1415 158
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
• Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
• Yellow rust reported trace to moderate intensity on Wheat in Jammu, Samba, Kathua district of Jammu & Kashmir. Low intensity of Yellow Rust also reported in some districts of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh States.
• The reported incidents of Yellow Rust has been contained and its spread has been limited in the affected areas by spray of Propiconazole provided to the farmers by State Agriculture Departments with the help of CIPMCs.
5. Availability position of fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6. All India Crop Situations – 2
ndAdv. Est.(2019-20) vis-à-vis Final Est. 2018-19)
Table:6.1
7.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 27.03.2020
Table: 7.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in
marketing season 2019-20 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 27.03.2020
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 40.00 32.30 29.82
Telangana 30.00 31.56 27.08
Bihar 12.00 9.38 7.69
Chhattisgarh 48.00 39.71 40.20
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42
Kerala 2.50 1.86 1.77
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 15.35 12.75
Maharashtra 6.00 7.02 3.72
Odisha 34.00 34.88 33.80
Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34
Tamil Nadu 8.00 13.36 10.33
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.17 32.33
Uttrakhand 5.00 6.81 4.62
West Bengal 23.00 8.54 12.65
All-India 416.00 392.57 371.33
Annexure I Rainfall for next two Weeks
Weather systems and associated Precipitation & temperature pattern during week 1 (26th to 01st April, 2020) and Week 2 (02nd April to 08th April, 2020)
Week 1: (26th March to 01st April, 2020)
• Under the impact of the present Western disturbance over north Afghanistan &
neighbourhood and its induced cyclonic circulation over south Pakistan & neighbourhood and their subsequent movement towards northeastwards, Fairly widespread/widespread rainfall/snowfall with isolated thunderstorm accompanied with hailstorm, lightning and gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) very likely over Western Himalayan region (Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit & Baltistan, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) during 26th to 27th March. Heavy Rainfall at isolated places also very likely over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit & Baltistan and Himachal Pradesh on 27th March. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated to scattered thunderstorm / hailstorm accompanied with lightning and gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh during 26th to 27th March.
• With Likely development of a low level trough and moisture incursion over interior Maharashtra during 29 to 30th March 2020, isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers accompanied with lightning/hailstorm/gusty winds very likely over the same area.
• Under the impact of a fresh Western Disturbance likely to affect Western Himalayan Region from 30th March, Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall (with isolated heavy falls over Jammu & Kashmir) likely over Western Himalayan region during 31 March till 1 April.
Isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers likely over northeast India and Isolated rainfall over Central India and southern peninsula.
• Cumulatively, near normal rainfall very likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh and interior Maharashtra and below normal rainfall likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Tamilnadu and Nicobar Islands during week 1
Rainfall for week 2: (02nd April to 08th April, 2020)
• During week 2, near normal to below rainfall likely over Kerala, Western Himalayan Region and northeastern states and Andaman & Nicobar Islands with mainly dry weather likely over rest parts of the country.
Maximum Temperature for week 1 & 2: (26th March to 08th April, 2020)
• During week 1, due to ongoing rainfall/thunderstorm activity over many parts of the country, maximum temperatures are likely to be below normal by 2-4°C over most parts of the country outside northern parts of Kashmir, East coast and northeastern parts of India, southeast peninsula and west cost of India, where, it is likely to be above normal by 2-4°C.
• During week 2, there is likely slight rise in maximum temperatures, however these are likely to below normal by 1-2°C over Central and adjoining east & south Peninsular India
