F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 05.04.2021
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 01.04.2021.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 25 March 2021 to 31 March 2021, has been 59% lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Lower by 92% in Central India, - Lower by 70% in North West India, - Lower by 51% in East & North East India, - Lower by 22% in South Peninsula.
Cumulative rainfall during Pre-Monsoon season, 01 March 2021 to 31 March 2021, has been 45% lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Lower by 56% in South Peninsula,
- Lower by 47% in East & North East India, - Lower by 43% in North West India, - Lower by 38% in Central India.
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 05 MET sub-divisions constituting 11% of total area, - Normal in 05 MET sub-division constituting 10% of total area,
- Deficient/large deficient in 23 MET sub-divisions constituting 71% of total area - No rainfall in 03 MET sub-division constituting 08% of total area.
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 174.23 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 01 April 2021 was 71.85 BCM, which is:
- 84% of last year’s storage on the same day (01 April 2020) of 85.92 BCM.
- 123% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 58.50 BCM.
As per 2nd Advance Estimates 2020-21, around 105% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown. Total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 648.41 lakh hectares as compared to 639.88 lakh hectares during 2019-20.
All-India progressive procurement
As on 01 April 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 466.29 lakh MT as compared to 408.40 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.
PRE-MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (March – May) during the week ending 31 March, 2021
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (25 March to 31 March 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 04 met sub-divisions, normal in 00 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 18 sub-divisions and no rain in 14 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 March 2021 to 31 March 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 05 met sub-divisions, normal in 05 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 23 sub-divisions and no rain in 03 sub-division. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (31.03.2021) Cumulative (01.01.21 to 31.03.2021) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 2.7 9.2 -70 LD 27.0 47.5 -43 D
Central 0.2 1.9 -92 LD 5.2 8.4 -38 D
South Peninsula 2.7 3.5 -22 D 6.3 14.4 -56 LD
East & North-East 9.9 20.2 -51 D 33.8 63.5 -47 D
Country as a whole 3.0 7.4 -59 D 16.7 30.4 -45 D
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 March 2021 to 31 March 2021
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 March to
30 MAR 2016
29 MAR 2017
28 MAR 2018
03 APR 2019
01 APR 2020
31 MAR 2021 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 13 05 18
07 08 05 20
07 01 04 12
00 02 07 09
18 07 02 27
03 02 05 10 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
10 - 06 02 18
08 05 - 03 16
04 18 - 02 24
12 13 - 02 27
03 06 - 00 09
06 17 - 03 26
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation 0% (-) 11% (-) 46% (-) 37% 46% (-) 45%
Source: IMD
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1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks
Week-1: 01 – 07 April, 2021 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 2 days and isolated light to moderate rainfall thereafter for subsequent 3 days.
Squally wind speed reachs 45-55 gusting to 65 kmph very likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands on 1st & 2nd April, 2021 and decrease thereafter.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into Andaman Sea & adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal on today, the 01st April and into Andaman Sea on 02nd April, 2021.
Scattered to widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorm/lightning & gusty winds very likely over Northeast India during 1st half of the week 1. Heavy rainfall at isolated places also likely over Assam & Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh on today, the 1st April, 2021.
Under the influence of fresh Western Disturbance, light/moderate fairly widespread to widespread rain/snow very likely over Western Himalayan Region during 4th to 7th April and light isolated rainfall over Punjab and Haryana & Chandigarh on 5th & 6th April, 2021.
Thunderstorm with lightning & hail likely at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad on 4th and over Himachal Pradesh & Uttrakhand on 5th April, 2021.
Light thundershower is very likely over Kerala & Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Coastal Andhra Pradesh during many days of the week 1.
Week-2: 08 – 14 April, 2021
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places are likely over this region during 1st half of the week 2. As a result above normal rainfall activity likely over this region.
Light thundershower is very likely over Kerala & Mahe, Coastal & south Karnataka during many days of the week 2.
Due to absence of any active Western Disturbance, rainfall activity is likely to below normal over northwest India. It is likely to be below normal to normal over remaining parts of the country.
Temperature
Week-1 & 2 : 01 – 14 April, 2021
No significant change in maximum temperatures over most parts of Northwest & adjoining central India during 1st half of the week 1 and very likely to fall by 2-4°C during its 2nd half.
Maximum temperatures very likely to fall by 2-3°C over most parts of East India during 1st half of the week 1 and very likely to fall by 2-4°C during its 2nd half. No significant change in maximum temperatures over rest parts of the country during next one week.
Hence no major heat wave spell is likely over any part of the country during next one week.
However heat wave at isolated places very likely over Gujarat on 2nd & 3rd; Southwest Rajasthan on 3rd & 4th; Vidharbha on 4th & 5th; south Andhra Pradesh on 2nd and over Tamil
Nadu till 4th April, 2021. No heat wave likely over remaining parts of the country during week 1.
During week 2, maximum temperatures are very likely to rise gradually over northern parts of the country and along the east coast. Hence, normal to above normal maximum temperatures likely along East Coast including Odisha and near normal over northern parts of the country and Saurashtra & Kutch. Hence, there is moderate probability of getting heat wave at isolated places over Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Saurashtra & Kutch and south Rajasthan during week 2.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 01 April 2021)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 174.23 BCM, which is about 67.58% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs decreased to 71.85 BCM from the previous week’s level of 76.37 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 85.92 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 58.50 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country
Source: CWC
There were 111 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 08 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 08 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 03 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 41 84 123
Last Week 44 86 122
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 49% on 01.04.2020, 30% on 01.04.2019, 28% on 01.04.2018 and 33% on 01.04.2017.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 31.03.2021)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2020 231 452 257 430 124
Requirement for Oct. 2020 to March 2021 18265 5615 1529 5505 2503 Estimated Requirement during March 2021 1269 413 183 633 276
Cumulative Receipt upto 31.03.2021 18496 3754 1455 6027 2380
Cumulative Availability upto 31.03.2021 18727 4206 1712 6457 2504
Cumulative Sales upto 31.03.2021 18318 4068 1606 5814 2326
Closing Stock as on 31.03.2021 409 138 106 643 178
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
Rugose Spiraling Whitefly reported at moderate intensity in 18 hectare of Coconut in Ramanagara and Bangaluru rural districts of Karnataka.
For control of Rugose Spiraling White fly (Aleurodicusrugioperculatus) in Coconut, farmers were advised to install yellow sticky traps in orchards to trap adults and application of 1% starch solution on leaflets to flake out the sooty moulds and Isariafumosorosea
@5ml/1lt of water spray. In severe case spray of neem oil 0.5% or NSKE 5% is recommended and avoid spraying in any form of insecticides.
V. Mandi Functioning
PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 30 March, 2021)
Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Barley, Maize, Ragi, Gram, Moong, Safflower and Sesamum.
Agri produce sold above MSP: Jowar, Arhar, Urad, Masur, Copra, Groundnut, Mustard, Soyabean, Sunflower, Cotton and Jute.
VI. All India Rabi Crop Situation - 2020-21 (2nd Adv. Est.) vis-à-vis 2019-20 (Final Est.) Table 6.1
(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Rabi
Season
Area sown reported
Absolute Change This Year
2020-21
% of Normal for
whole season
Last Year 2019-20
Wheat 303.28 315.77 104.1 313.57 2.20
Rice 41.78 45.32 108.5 46.49 -1.17
Jowar 33.40 25.55 76.5 30.69 -5.14
Maize 17.37 16.75 96.5 20.16 -3.41
Barley 6.38 6.92 108.5 5.90 1.02
Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 49.22 86.1 56.74 -7.52
Total Cereals 402.20 410.31 102.0 416.81 -6.50
Gram 92.77 107.15 115.5 96.99 10.16
Urad 8.93 9.06 101.4 8.32 0.74
Moong 9.86 9.29 94.3 10.59 -1.30
Lentil 14.24 14.98 105.2 13.03 1.95
Others 19.09 17.61 92.2 15.60 2.01
Total Pulses 144.88 158.09 109.1 144.52 13.57
Total Foodgrains 547.07 568.40 103.9 561.33 7.07
Rapeseed& Mustard 59.44 68.53 115.3 68.56 -0.03
Groundnut 7.24 7.34 101.4 6.65 0.69
Safflower 1.15 0.49 42.4 0.52 -0.03
Sunflower 2.37 1.32 55.7 1.03 0.29
Linseed 2.74 2.34 85.2 1.80 0.54
Total Oilseeds 72.94 80.01 109.7 78.56 1.46
All- Crops 620.01 648.41 104.6 639.88 8.53
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
VII. Progressive Procurement as on 01
stApril, 2021
Table 7.1: Rice
(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates
during KMS 2020-21 (Kharif & Rabi Crops)
Progressive Procurement as on 01. 04.2021
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Andhra Pradesh 72.00 30.33 32.30
Telangana 105.00 32.66 31.55
Bihar 30.00 23.40 9.81
Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85
Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07
Kerala 5.80 2.58 2.13
Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40
Maharashtra 15.88 8.75 7.04
Odisha 48.00 42.80 35.72
Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76
Tamil Nadu 29.00 18.26 13.55
Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.17
Uttarakhand 6.70 7.12 6.81
West Bengal 26.80 10.76 8.42
All-India 637.97 466.29 408.40
Source: Food &PD
Annexe-III/p-1
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 01 -07 April, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2021
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 01 APR 02 APR 03 APR 04 APR 05 APR 06 APR 07 APR
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS● $ FWS L ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS● L FWS L FWS SCT ISOL ISOL SCT
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS $ SCT L SCT SCT L ISOL ISOL SCT 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS L SCT ISOL SCT L SCT ISOL ISOL 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM FWS L ISOL L ISOL D D ISOL SCT
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D ISOL ISOL L SCT L D D D
7 ODISHA D+ ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL D
8 JHARKHAND D D D D D D D
9 BIHAR D D D D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND D D D ISOL SCT L # FWS FWS
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D D D D ISOL ISOL D
14 PUNJAB D D D D ISOL ISOL D
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D D D ISOL FWS L # WS FWS
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH ISOL ISOL D SCT L # WS L # WS SCT
17 WEST RAJASTSAN D D D D D D D
18 EAST RAJASTSAN D D D D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA D D D D D D D
27 CHHATTISGARH D D D D D D D
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM D+ D+ ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL D
29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL D D D ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
35 KERALA & MAHE SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL SCT
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT D D D D D D
LEGENDS:
WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
F Fog * Snowfall DDuststorm $Thunderstorm with Squall L Thunderstorm with Lightning # Thunderstorm with Hail
Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5 OC to -6.4OC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5OC)
Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5 OC to +6.4OC) + Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5OC)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 01 – 05 April 2021:
