MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (June – September) during the week ending 21 July, 2021

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F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 26.07.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 23.07.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 15 July 2021 to 21 July 2021, has been 3% lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 65% in South Peninsula, - Higher by 10% in North West India, - Lower by 37% in East & North East India, - Lower by 15% in Central India.

 Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June 2021 to 21 July 2021, has been 5% lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 20% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 13% in East & North East India, - Lower by 09% in North West India, - Lower by 08% in Central India.

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 08 MET sub-divisions constituting 20% of total area, - Normal in 16 MET sub-division constituting 44% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 12 MET sub-divisions constituting 36% of total area

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 174.23 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 22 July 2021 was 65.60 BCM, which is:

- 98% of last year’s storage on the same day (22 July 2020) of 67.07 BCM.

- 112% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 49.92 BCM.

 During the current Kharif season 2021(as on 23.07.2021), 721.36 lakh ha. area has been sown as compared to the 791.84 Lakh ha during corresponding period of last year.

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 Procurement of Wheat in marketing season RMS 2021-22 is progressing smoothly in procuring states. As on 23.07.2021, over 433.32 LMT has been procured whereas corresponding Wheat procurement during RMS 2020-21 was 387.66 LMT. About 49.14 Lakh farmers have already been benefitted from ongoing RMS procurement.

 As on 23 July 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 584.27 lakh MT as compared to 508.69 lakh MT procured during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20. About 128.37 Lakh farmers have been benefitted from ongoing KMS procurement.

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MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (June – September) during the week ending 21 July, 2021

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (15 July to 21 July 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 15 met sub-divisions, normal in 06 sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 15 sub-divisions.

(Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2021 to 21 July 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 08 met sub-divisions, normal in 16 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 12 sub-divisions. (Sub- division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

Region of India Week Ending (21.07.2021) Cumulative (01.06.21 to 21.07.2021) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 58.0 52.9 10 N 193.0 212.2 -9 N

Central 64.7 76.3 -15 N 352.1 381.7 -8 N

South Peninsula 83.5 50.7 65 LE 363.5 303.2 20 E

East & North-East 62.9 99.7 -37 D 563.3 648.5 -13 N

Country as a whole 66.0 67.8 -3 N 339.1 356.7 -5 N

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June 2021 to 21 July 2021

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 June to

20 JULY 2016

19 JULY 2017

18 JULY 2018

24 JULY 2019

22 JULY 2020

21 JULY 2021 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 08 22 30

01 05 26 32

00 11 16 27

00 00 15 15

02 09 18 29

03 05 16 24 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

06 - 00 00 06

04 00 - 00 04

09 00 - 00 09

21 00 - 00 21

07 00 - 00 07

12 00 - 00 12

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation 1% 1% (-) 3% (-) 19% 6% (-) 5%

Source: IMD

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1.2 Weather Forecast

Week 1 (22 to 28 July)

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely over Jammu &

Kashmir and Ladakh on 27^th & 28^th July, 2021.

 Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over plains of northwest India likely during 1^st half of the week with enhanced rainfall activity thereafter with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Uttar Pradesh on 25^th & 26^th and isolated heavy falls on 27th & 28^th July, 2021.

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely to continue over west coast till 24^th July and reduce thereafter. Isolated extremely heavy falls also very likely over Konkan & Goa & adjoining Ghat areas over Telangana, south Chhattisgarh, Vidharbha, Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Karnataka on 22^nd July, 2021.

 Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely to continue over Gujarat state till 23^rd and fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls on 25^th & 26^th July, 2021.

 Increase in rainfall activity over northeast India likely on 26th July with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the region.

 Isolated to scatted rainfall activity is likely over remaining parts of the country during the Week.

Week 2 (29 July to 04 August)

 The monsoon trough is very likely to be north of its normal position during most days of the week. Hence rainfall activity is very likely to be confined to the northern parts of the country during this week.

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to heavy falls very likely over Western Himalayan Region & adjoining plains of northwest India, Uttar Pradesh northeast

& adjoining east India during most days of the week.

 Overall, normal to above normal rainfall activity is likely over Western Himalayan Region, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim and northeastern states.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 22 July 2021)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 174.23 BCM, which is about 67.58% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs increased to 65.60 BCM from the previous week’s level of 57.63 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 67.07 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 58.49 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 97 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 21 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 08 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 04 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 38 98 112

Last Week 33 93 115

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 38% on 22.07.2020, 25% on 22.07.2019, 37% on 22.07.2018 and 31% on 22.07.2017.

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2021 (As on 23.07.2021)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex/

NPK

SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.04.2021 341 131 97 617 152

Requirement for Apr. 2021 to Sept 2021 17503 6518 2024 6187 2646 Estimated Requirement during July 2021 3773 1124 423 1254 497

Cumulative Receipt upto 23.07.2021 8726 2727 770 3273 1561

Cumulative Availability upto 23.07.2021 9068 2858 867 3890 1713

Cumulative Sales upto 23.07.2021 8811 2556 676 3397 1581

Closing Stock as on 23.07.2021 257 302 191 493 132

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

 Whitefly & Thrips reported at Trace to Moderate in 480 hectare area on Cotton in Bathinda

& Mansa districts of Punjab(Advisory issued).

V. Seeds:

 There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif- 2021 except maize, minor millets, soybean and jute which will meet from National Seed Corporation Ltd, Farm Saved Seed and Private Seed Companies.

 Total availability of certified/quality seed is 165.08 lakh quintals against the requirement of 154.50 lakh quintals for Kharif-2021 season in the country. There is overall surplus of 10.58 lakh quintals seeds.

VI. Mandi Functioning

 PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 21 July, 2021)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Arhar, Gram, Moong and Groundnut.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Barley, Urad, Masur, Copra, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Cotton and Jute.

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VII. All-India Crop Situation Kharif (2021-22) as on 23-07-2021

Table 8.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Rabi

Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2021

% of Normal for whole

season

Last Year 2020

Rice 395.66 207.65 52.5 222.88 -15.23

Jowar 19.52 8.17 41.8 10.57 -2.41

Bajra 73.43 31.83 43.3 44.93 -13.10

Maize 74.68 66.23 88.7 69.40 -3.17

Total Coarse Cereals 183.59 110.85 60.4 131.21 -20.36

Total Cereals 579.24 318.50 55.0 354.09 -35.59

Tur 45.64 38.44 84.2 36.48 1.96

Urad 37.96 22.13 58.3 28.62 -6.49

Moong 33.48 20.90 62.4 25.62 -4.72

Kulthi 2.18 0.22 10.0 0.22 0.00

Others 16.70 5.62 33.7 6.25 -0.63

Total Pulses 135.95 87.30 64.2 97.19 -9.89

Total Foodgrains 715.20 405.80 56.7 451.27 -45.48

Groundnut 41.70 36.10 86.6 41.56 -5.47

Soyabean 112.88 102.52 90.8 112.34 -9.82

Sunflower 1.42 1.00 70.4 0.76 0.24

Sesamum 16.48 5.72 34.7 7.23 -1.50

Nigerseed 2.04 0.09 4.6 0.24 -0.15

Castorseed 8.98 0.31 3.5 0.47 -0.15

Total Oilseeds 183.50 145.81 79.5 162.68 -16.87

Cotton 123.59 108.93 88.1 118.03 -9.10

Sugarcane 47.53 53.86 113.3 52.94 0.92

Jute & Mesta 7.33 6.95 94.8 6.91 0.04

All- Crops 1077.15 721.36 67.0 791.84 -70.48

Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW

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VIII. Progressive Procurement as on 23

^rd

July, 2021

Table 9.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates

during KMS 2020-21 (Kharif & Rabi Crops)

Progressive Procurement as on 23.07.2021

In Marketing season 2020-2021

Andhra Pradesh 72.00 55.34 53.18

Telangana 105.00 94.52 74.54

Bihar 30.00 23.84 13.41

Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85

Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07

Kerala 5.80 5.20 4.75

Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40

Maharashtra 15.88 12.37 11.24

Odisha 48.00 52.62 47.28

Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76

Tamil Nadu 29.00 25.80 18.17

Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.90

Uttarakhand 6.70 7.19 6.82

West Bengal 26.80 15.84 15.98

All-India 637.97 584.27 508.69

Table 9.2: Wheat

State Procurement Estimates during RMS 2021-2022

(Rabi Crops)

Progressive Procurement as on 23.07.2021

Punjab 130.00 132.10 127.12

Haryana 80.00 84.93 74.00

Uttar Pradesh 55.00 56.41 33.61

Madhya Pradesh 135.00 128.16 129.35

Bihar 7.00 4.56 0.05

Rajasthan 23.25 23.40 22.25

Uttarakhand 2.20 1.44 0.38

Gujarat 2.00 1.70 0.76

All-India 435.34 433.32 387.66

Source: Food &PD

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Annexe-III/p-1

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 22 – 28 July, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST -2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 22 JUL 23 JUL 24 JUL 25 JUL 26 JUL 27 JUL 28 JUL

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWS FWS WS WS WS WS WS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS^● SCT WS

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA SCT SCT^● SCT FWS^● FWS^●● SCT WS

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS FWS FWS FWS^● FWS^● FWS WS

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM FWS^● FWS FWS FWS WS^● FWS SCT

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWS^● FWS^● FWS FWS WS^● WS WS

7 ODISHA WS^●● WS^●● FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● SCT FWS

8 JHARKHAND WS^● WS^● FWS FWS WS^● WS WS

9 BIHAR SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS^● WS WS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH FWS^● SCT ISOL FWS^● FWS^●● FWS WS

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH WS^● FWS^● SCT^● FWS^●● WS^●● FWS FWS

12 UTTARAKHAND FWS^● FWS^● SCT WS^●● WS^●● WS WS

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI SCT SCT ISOL SCT FWS^● FWS SCT

14 PUNJAB SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT^● FWS FWS

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH FWS^● FWS SCT FWS^● WS^●● WS WS

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT^● SCT WS

17 WEST RAJASTSAN SCT SCT ISOL ISOL^● SCT SCT ISOL

18 EAST RAJASTSAN FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● SCT^● SCT SCT SCT

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● FWS SCT SCT

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH WS^●● WS^●● WS^● FWS^● FWS^● FWS FWS

21 GUJARAT REGION SCT^● FWS^● WS^●● WS^●● FWS^● SCT ISOL

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH SCT SCT SCT^● WS^●● FWS^● SCT ISOL

23 KONKAN & GOA WS^●●● WS^●●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS WS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA WS^●●● WS^●● FWS^● FWS^● SCT^● SCT SCT

25 MARATHAWADA WS^●● FWS^● SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

26 VIDARBHA WS^●●● WS^●● FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT

27 CHHATTISGARH WS^●●● WS^●● FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM WS^●● WS^● SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA WS^●●● WS^●● FWS^● SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

30 RAYALASEEMA WS^● SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL^● ISOL^● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS^●●● WS^●● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS WS

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA WS^●● WS^● FWS SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA WS^●● WS^●● FWS^● SCT SCT SCT ISOL

35 KERALA & MAHE WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS^● WS^● FWS SCT

36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

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Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 23 – 27 July 2021:

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