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GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 18.07.2022
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 15.07.2022.
Summary Points of the CWWG meeting:
During the week (07 - 13 July) higher monsoon rainfall was observed, as compared to Long Period Average (LPA) by 50%. Monsoon Season’s Rainfall Scenario (01 June-13 July, 2022) shows rainfall status have further improved significantly.
Cumulative seasonal rainfall (01 June to 13 July) is higher than LPA by 11%.
For the week (14 - 20 July), isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
The monsoon trough is active and south of its normal position and it is likely to shift gradually northwards during 2ndhalf of the week.
The total live water storage in 143 reservoirs across the country is 71.11 Billion Cubic Meter (40%) of the storage capacity at full reservoirs level. The current year's storage is nearly 123 percent of the last year's storage.
There was sufficient availability of certified / quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif-2022.
Availability of fertilizer has also been comfortable.
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level except whitefly (Bemisia tabaci) on cotton and Rugose spiraling whitefly (Aleurodicus rugioperculatus) on Coconut in Tamil Nadu.
During the current Kharif season 2022 (as on 15.07.2022), 592.11 lakh ha. area has been sown which has shown marginally increase as compared to last year, which was 591.30 lakh ha. Area sown under Rice was 128.50 lakh ha. as compared to 155.53 lakh ha. of the corresponding period of last year. Lower area sown under Rice is due to late arrival of monsoon in some states. However, the area coverage is expected to pick up. Area coverage under Pulses has been reported 72.66 lakh ha. against 66.69 lakh ha. during the corresponding period of last year. Area coverage under Coarse Cereals has been reported 93.91 lakh ha.
against 87.06 lakh ha. during the corresponding period of last year. Area coverage under Oilseeds has been reported 134.04 lakh ha. against 124.83 lakh ha. during the corresponding period of last year.
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Kharif Tomato, Onion and Potato area sown has been reported 69.21 thousand ha., 38.50 thousand ha., and 36.37 thousand ha. as compared to 67.21 thousand ha., 38.33 thousand ha., and 36.09 thousand ha. respectively.
Inflation (WPI Food Index) has increased from 10.89% in May, 2022 to 12.41% in June, 2022.
Overall major foodgrains prices have remained stable during the last week.
Prices of onion and tomato have shown decrease while Potato has shown marginally increase during the last week.
Out of major 15 crops, the Wholesale Average Prices of 9 crops namely, Wheat, Arhar, Gram, Masur, Urad, Groundnut, Mustard, Soyabean and Sesamum have shown more than above MSP.
Details of each sector are given here under:
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I. WEATHER OUTLOOK 1st June to 13 July 2022:
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During the week (07 - 13 July) higher monsoon rainfall was observed, as compared to Long Period Average (LPA) by 50%. Monsoon Season’s Rainfall Scenario (01 June -13 July, 2022) shows rainfall status have further improved significantly.
Cumulative seasonal rainfall (01 June to 13 July) is higher than LPA by 11%.
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country
Region of India Week Ending (13.07.2022) Cumulative (01.06.2022 to 13.07.2022) (In MM) Deviation
%
Category (In MM) Deviation
%
Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
East & North-East 33.7 100.5 -66 LD 480.1 513.2 -6 N
North-West 32.7 45.9 -29 D 139.0 154.0 -10 N
Central India 163.9 69.2 137 LE 366.9 294.1 25 E
South Peninsula 116.8 45.8 155 LE 324.8 241.8 34 E
Country as a whole 93.5 62.4 50 E 306.6 275.7 11 N
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient
Sub-division wise rainfall (weekly/ seasonal) details are at Annex-I & Annex-II.
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All-India cumulative Monsoon rainfall data during the corresponding period for the last 5 years:
Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years (01 June 2022 to 13 July 2022)
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 June to
12 JULY 2017
11 JULY 2018
10 JULY 2019
15 JULY 2020
14 JULY 2021
13 JULY 2022 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
02 05 24 31
00 07 16 23
00 03 13 16
02 10 17 29
02 05 17 24
04 13 13 30 Deficient
Large Deficient No rain
Total
05 00 00 05
12 01 00 13
20 00 00 20
06 01 00 07
12 00 00 12
05 01 00 06
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 1% (-) 8% (-) 14% 10% (-) 5% 11%
Source: IMD
14 – 20 July, 2022;
The monsoon trough is active and south of its normal position. It is likely to shift gradually northwards during 2nd half of the week.
Fairly widespread/widespread light/moderate rainfall & thunderstorm/lightning with isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe during the week; and over rest parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat State, Coastal Andhra
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Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, Interior Karnataka and Andaman & Nicobar Islands during 1st half of the week and reduce thereafter.
Isolated heavy to very rainfall with extremely heavy falls very likely over Saurashtra & Kutch on 14th & 15th and over Gujarat region, ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan & Goa on 14th July, 2022.
Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall with isolated thunderstorm/lightning very likely over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan
& Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh & Rajasthan during most days of the week.
Isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorm likely to occur over rest parts of the country during most days of the week. (Details at Annex-III)
21 – 27 July, 2022:
The monsoon trough is very likely to be near its normal position during most days of the week.
Rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over northwest India and below normal along the West Coast. It is likely to be near normal over central, east &
northeast India and rest parts of Peninsular.
II. RESERVOIR STORAGE (As on 14 July, 2022)
Current Live Storage in 143 reservoirs was 71.11 BCM (or 40%) of Total Live Capacity of 177.46 BCM.
o Current year’s storage is 123% of last year’s storage and 139% of normal storage.
o 114 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage.
o 04 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of normal storage.
Table 2: For 143 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of
10 Year’s
Average Level
Current Week 40 123 139
Last Week 30 95 121
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 33% on 14.07.2021, 36% on 14.07.2020, 23% on 14.07.2019 and 26% on 14.07.2018.
Source: CWC
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Details at Annex-IV
III. REMOTE SENSING BASED OBSERVATION (07th to 13th July, 2022)
Soil moisture condition is severe (0 to 0.2 m3/ m3 ) and rainfall condition is severe (< - 60%) in U.P, Bihar, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu. Crop condition is better in West Bengal, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, A.P. to 2021 and wetness condition is better in some parts of North Eastern region of the country, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal. (The model does not take into account irrigation water).
Final Situation based on Rainfall and soil Moisture
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INSAT-3D PET data (7July-13July 2022)
PET(potential evapotranspiration) taken from INSAT3D shows PET is high in U.P., Bihar , Rajasthan , Jharkhand.
CPC Rainfall (mm)
7 JUNE-13July 2022
2022
Spatial rainfall product is the CPC rainfall product. It shows rainfall in some parts of Northern region of the country , M.P., Bihar, , Chattishgarh , A.P. , Orissa , Telangana.
2021
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IV. Fertilizer Position:
Availability of fertilizer has been comfortable. Details of Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2022 as on 15.07.2022 is given below:
(In LMT) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP NPKS SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2022 47.83 7.73 2.47 14.05 15.69
Actual Requirement for Kharif 2022 179.01 58.82 19.82 63.72 33.19
Estimated Requirement during July, 2022 38.01 11.39 3.64 12.64 5.78
Cumulative Receipt upto 15.07.2022 94.43 33.68 5.34 30.28 15.36
Cumulative Availability upto 15.07.2022 142.26 41.41 7.81 44.33 31.04
Cumulative Sales upto 15.07.2022 77.93 25.52 3.19 19.83 14.77
Closing Stock as on 15.07.2022 64.33 15.89 4.62 24.50 16.28
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
V. PEST & DISEASE
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level except whitefly (Bemisia tabaci) on cotton and Rugose spiraling whitefly (Aleurodicus rugioperculatus) on Coconut in Tamilnadu.
Whitefly is reported at Moderate intensity (Above ETL) from Needamangalam Block of Thiruvarur district of Tamilnadu in 38 (ha) area and Rugose spiralling whitefly is reported at Moderate intensity (above ETL) from Kudavasal Block of Thiruvarur district of Tamilnadu in 25 (ha) area.
VI. SEEDS
There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif-2022.
Certified/Quality seeds availability was 177.97 lakh quintals against the requirement of 160.45 lakh quintals in the country for Kharif-2022 season. An overall surplus of 17.52 lakh quintals of seed is available for Kharif-2022.
Certified/Quality seeds shortage was in some states in some commodities.
VII. CROP SOWING POSITION
Area sown during the current Kharif season 2022 (as on 15.07.2022) was 592.11 lakh ha., which has shown marginally increase as compared to last year, which was 591.30 lakh ha.
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o The less area coverage under Rice mainly recorded in the states of UP, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and MP. Less area coverage is due to late arrival of monsoon. It is expected to pick up.
o Area coverage under Pulses has been increased by 5.97 lakh ha. as compared to the corresponding period of last year.
o Area coverage under Coarse Cereals has been increased by 6.85 lakh ha.
as compared to the corresponding period of last year.
o Area coverage under Oilseeds has been reported 134.04 lakh ha. against 124.83 lakh ha. during the corresponding period of last year.
o Area coverage under Cotton has been reported 102.80 lakh ha. against 96.58 lakh ha. during the corresponding period of last year i.e. increased by 6.22 lakh ha.
o Area coverage under Sugarcane has been decreased (53.31 lakh ha.) compared to the corresponding period of last year (53.70 lakh ha.). Thus marginally decreased by 0.39 lakh ha. as on date.
(Details at Annex-V)
VIII. HORTICULTURE (As on 14 July, 2022)
As of now out of the Kharif targeted area, sowing of 10.25% under Onion 52.03% under Potato and 26.74% under Tomato have been completed.
Kharif Onion
Sowing/transplanting window is open till September in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat , Uttar Pradesh and Telangana.
38.50 Thousand Ha. area sown as compared to 38.33 Thousand Ha. in corresponding period of 2020-21.
Kharif Potato
Sowing is complete in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and will continue till July in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
36.37 Thousand Ha. area sown as compared to 36.09 Thousand Ha. in corresponding period of 2020-21.
Kharif Tomato
Sowing/transplanting is complete in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and will continue till July in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and till September in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.
69.21 Thousand Ha. area sown as compared to 67.21 Thousands Ha. in corresponding period of 2020-21.
IX. WHOLESALE PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 08 July, 2022) o Agri produce sold below MSP: Moong and Sunflower.
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o Agri produce sold above MSP: Wheat, Arhar, Gram, Masur, Urad, Groundnut, Mustard, Soyabean and Sesamum.
(Details at Annex-VI)
Inflation (WPI Food Index) has increased from 10.89% in May 2022 to 12.41% in June, 2022.
Status of change of WPI in May 2021 over June 2022 for some major items is as under.
- All Commodities: declined from 15.88% to 15.18%.
- Primary Articles: declined from 19.71% to 19.22%
- Food Articles: increase from 12.34% to 14.39%.
- Non-food Articles: declined from 24.14% to 18.80%.
- Pulses: increase from -3.69% to -2.82%.
- Cereals: declined from 8.01% to 7.99%.
- Wheat: declined from 10.55% to 10.34%.
- Paddy: increase from 1.79% to 2.35%.
- Fruits and Vegetables: increase from 32.31% to 40.12%.
- Milk: increase from 5.81% to 6.35%.
X. PROCUREMENT
As on 14 July 2022, during KMS 2021-22, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 582.20 lakh MT (Khairf Crop 507.72 LMT+Rabi crop 74.48 LMT) of Rice has been procured showing an decrease of 0.06% over procurement in corresponding period previous season of KMS 2020-21 (582.54 LMT). About 126.53 Lakh farmers have been benefitted with MSP procurement in ongoing season.
As on 14 July 2022, during RMS 2022-23, Progressive Procurement of Wheat was 187.89 lakh MT as compared to 429.97 lakh MT procured during corresponding period of RMS 2021-22. About 17.85 Lakh farmers have been benefitted from ongoing RMS procurement.
…..
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Annex-III/ P.I
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 14 July – 20 July, 2022 for 36 Met Sub- Divisions:
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Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 14 – 18 July 2022:
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Annex-V
Source: Crops Division, DA&FW
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Annex-VI
MSP, WEIGHTED AVERAGE WHOLESALE PRICES AND PRODUCTION OF MAJOR AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
(Production: In Million Tonnes)
*: Wholesale Prices are collected on every preceeding Friday as per WPI requirement.
#: Since MSP is not applicable for Rice, Onion, Potato and Tomato, the Five Year Average Price is given for comparison.
Source: DES Agriculture Commodities
MSP (Rs./Qtl.)
Avg.
Wholesale Price as on 08.07.2022*
(Rs./Qtl.)
Difference ( Avg. W.P
–MSP)
Production Estimates
2021-22 (as per 3rd
A.E)
Production Estimates
2020-21 (Final)
Rice 3520# 3,733 178 129.66 124.37
Wheat 2,015 2,336 321 106.41 109.59
Arhar Whole 6,300 6,437 137 4.35 4.32
Gram Whole 5,230 5,285 55 13.98 11.91
Masur Whole 5,500 7,389 1,889 1.44 1.49
Moong Whole 7,275 7,235 -40 2.85 3.09
Urad Whole 6,300 7,405 1,105 2.76 2.23
Groundnut 5,550 6,096 546 10.09 10.24
Mustard 5,050 7,002 1,952 11.75 10.21
Soyabean 3,950 6,105 2,155 13.83 12.61
Sesamum 7,307 10,034 2,727 0.86 0.82
Sunflower 6,015 5,525 -490 0.26 0.23
Onion 2245# 1,605 -713 - -
Potato 1450# 1,966 378 - -
Tomato 2113# 2,652 539 - -
