Friday 02 July 2021 - Time of Issue: 0745 hours IST

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Friday 02 July 2021 MORNING Time of Issue: 0745 hours IST ALL INDIA WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST BULLETIN

Significant Weather Features

♦ The northern Limit of southwest monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Lat. 26°N / Long. 70°E, Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar.

♦ Prevailing meteorological conditions, large scale atmospheric features and the forecast wind pattern by dynamical models suggest that no favourable conditions are likely to develop for further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh &

Delhi and Punjab during next 5-6 days. Hence, subdued rainfall activity is very likely to continue to prevail over Northwest, Central and Western parts of Peninsular India during next 5-6 days. Isolated/scattered thunderstorm activity accompanied with lightning & rainfall is also likely over these regions during this period.

♦ Under the influence of strong moist southwesterly winds at lower tropospheric levels from Bay of Bengal to northeast & adjoining east India; fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Northeastern states during next 5 days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over Bihar on 02nd; Arunachal Pradesh on 02nd & 03rd and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal &

Sikkim and Assam & Meghalaya during 02nd - 04th, July, 2021. Isolated extremely falls also likely over Assam & Meghalaya and over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 02nd & 03th July, 2021.

♦ Due to likely dry westerly/southwesterly winds from Pakistan to northwest India at lower levels, Heat wave conditions in isolated/some pockets over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, north Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and north West Madhya Pradesh during next 24 hours.

♦ Moderate to severe thunderstorm accompanied by frequent cloud to ground lightning very likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during next 24 hours. This may cause injuries leading to casualties to people and animals staying outdoors.

Main Weather Observations

♦ Rain/Thundershowers observed (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday): at most places over Arunachal Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka; at many places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal and Madhya Maharashtra; at a few places over Assam & Meghalaya, Vidarbha, Kerala & Mahe and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &

Karaikal and at isolated places over Jharkhand, Bihar, Odisha, Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and North Interior Karnataka.

♦ Rainfall recorded (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday) (2 cm or more): Tiruppattur-4; Wardha and Malda-3 each; Thrissur, Chandrapur, Jagdalpur, Mandla, Bankura, Kolkata, Canning, Panagarh and Dibrugarh-2 each.

♦ Yesterday, Heat Wave to Severe Heat Wave Conditions observed in isolated pockets over Punjab and Heat Wave Conditions at most places over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and in isolated pockets over West Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

♦ Thunderstorm observed (from 0830 hrs IST of yesterday to 0530 hrs IST today): at a few places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan &

Muzaffarabad and Gangetic West Bengal and at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Kerala & Mahe.

♦ Maximum Temperature Departures as on 01-07-2021: Maximum temperatures were markedly above normal (5.1°C or more) at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and East Uttar Pradesh; appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C) at most places over Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh; at a few places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad and Odisha; at isolated places over Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Kerala & Mahe and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal; above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at many places over East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Saurashtra & Kutch and Coastal Karnataka; at a few places over Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra. They were markedly below normal (-5.1°C or less) at a few places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim; appreciably below normal (-3.1°C to -5.0°C) at isolated places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Bihar; below normal (-1.6°C to -3.0°C) at a few places over Arunachal Pradesh; at isolated places over Assam &

Meghalaya, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Telangana and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and near normal over rest parts of the country. Yesterday, the highest maximum temperature of 44.5°C was reported at Ganganagar (West Rajasthan).

♦ Minimum Temperature Departures as on 01-07-2021: Minimum temperatures were appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C) at most places over Punjab and Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi; at many places over Himachal Pradesh; at a few places over Uttar Pradesh and at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Uttarakhand, Rayalaseema and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim; above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at many places over Jharkhand, West Madhya Pradesh, North Interior Karnataka; at a few places over East madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe and at isolated places over Bihar and Coastal Karnataka. They were appreciably below normal (-3.1°C to -5.0°C) at isolated places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and below normal (-1.6°C to -3.0°C) at a few places over Gangetic west Bengal and at a isolated places over Assam &

Meghalaya and Telangana and near normal over rest parts of the country.

* Red color warning does not mean "Red Alert" Red color warning means "Take Action".

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day For more details kindly visit www.imd.gov.in or contact : +91 11 24631913, 24643965, 24629798

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Meteorological Analysis (Based on 0530 hours IST)

♦ The northern Limit of southwest monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Lat. 26°N / Long. 70°E, Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar.

♦ Prevailing meteorological conditions, large scale atmospheric features and the forecast wind pattern by dynamical models suggest that no favourable conditions are likely to develop for further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and Punjab during next 5-6 days.

♦ The trough at mean sea level from west Uttar Pradesh to Assam across East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub- Himalayan West Bengal extending upto 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

♦ The Western Disturbance as a trough in mid & upper westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level now runs roughly along Long.68°E to the north of Lat.30°N.

♦ The cyclonic circulation over central parts of North Rajasthan at 3.1 km above mean sea level persists.

♦ The cyclonic circulation over North Pakistan and neighbourhood extending upto 2.1 km above mean sea level persists.

♦ The trough from Interior Karnataka to Comorin Sea across Tamilnadu at 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

♦ The cyclonic circulation over West Central Arabian Sea & adjoining south Oman coast at 3.1 km above mean sea level persists.

**Weather Forecast for next 5 days * upto 0830 hours IST of 07th July, 2021**

♦ Meteorological sub-division wise detailed 5 days precipitation forecast is given in Table-1.

♦ No significant change in maximum temperatures over most parts of the country during next 5 days.

♦ No significant change in maximum temperatures over most parts of northwest India during next 24 hours and gradual fall by 2-3°C thereafter.

Weather Outlook for subsequent 2 days from 07th July 2021 to 09th July 2021

♦ Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely to continue over most parts of Northeast and East India; scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over the peninsular India and Islands and isolated rainfall likely over parts of Central and Northwest India.

♦ Subdued rainfall/weak monsoon spell over Central, West, northwest and Peninsular India.

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Weather Warning during next 5 days *

02 July (Day 1): ♦ Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall with extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Assam & Meghalaya and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim; Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Bihar and Arunachal Pradesh and Heavy Rainfall at isolated places over East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Mizoram & Tripura, Telangana and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty winds (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) very likely at isolated places over West Uttar Pradesh; (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) Kerala & Mahe and Lakshadweep and with lightning at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Andaman &

Nicobar Islands, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, South Interior Interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Thunderstorm/Duststorm (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Punjab and Haryana.

♦ Heat Wave conditions in isolated pockets very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan.

♦ Strong Winds (speed 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph) very likely over Southwest, Westcentral and Northwest Arabian Sea and North Arabian sea and along & off Gujarat coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

03 July (Day 2): ♦ Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall with extremely heavy falls very likely at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Assam & Meghalaya; Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh and Heavy Rainfall at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Nagaland and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) very likely at isolated places over West Uttar Pradesh, Kerala & Mahe and Lakshadweep and with lightning at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, South Interior Interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Thunderstorm/Duststorm (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Punjab and Haryana.

♦ Strong Winds (speed 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph) very likely over Southwest, Westcentral and Northwest Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

04 July (Day 3): ♦ Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall likely at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Assam & Meghalaya and Heavy Rainfall at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over West Uttar Pradesh, Kerala & Mahe and Lakshadweep and with lightning at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, South Interior Interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Thunderstorm/Duststorm (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over Punjab and Haryana.

♦ Strong Winds (speed 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph) likely over Southwest, Westcentral and Northwest Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

05 July (Day 4): ♦ Heavy Rainfall likely at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam &

Meghalaya and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over West Uttar Pradesh, Kerala

& Mahe and Lakshadweep and with lightning at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Thunderstorm/Duststorm (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over Punjab and Haryana.

06 July (Day 5): ♦ Heavy Rainfall likely at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam &

Meghalaya and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over West Uttar Pradesh, Kerala

& Mahe and Lakshadweep and with lightning at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

Kindly download MAUSAM APP for location specific forecast & warning, MEGHDOOT APP for Agromet advisory and DAMINI APP for Lightning Warning & visit state MC/RMC websites for district wise warning.

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Table-1

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ALL INDIA WEEKLY WEATHER REPORT 24 JUNE – 30 JUNE, 2021

Go to:

Table-1(A) Table-1(B) Table-1(C) Table-2 Table-3 Fig-1

Fig-2 Fig-3 Annexure-1

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES

❖ Advance of Southwest Monsoon

♦ Southwest Monsoon has covered entire North Arabian Sea, Gujarat State and Madhya Pradesh, some more parts of Rajasthan and most parts of West Uttar Pradesh on 19^thJune 2021; due to lack of favourable conditions, further advance of Southwest Monsoon has not taken place afterwards till 30^th June 2021.

♦ The Northern Limit of southwest monsoon (NLM) passed through Lat. 26°N / Long. 70°E, Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar on 19^th June 2021; since there had been no further advance of southwest monsoon afterwards, the NLM remained the same till 30^th June 2021. (Fig.1)

♦ Convergence of strong southerlies/ southwesterlies from Bay of Bengal causing moisture incursion into the region has caused fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over Northeast and adjoining areas of East India with heavy to very heavy rainfall activity reported over Assam & Meghalaya on all the days along with extremely heavy rainfall on two to three days during the week; Arunachal Pradesh also had reported heavy/ very heavy rainfall on three to four days whereas Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim has reported heavy to very heavy rainfall on many days with extremely heavy rainfall on one day during the week.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over Jharkhand & neighbourhood with its vertical extension upto midtropospheric levels and tilting southwestwards with height in the beginning of the week; eventhough its vertical extension had reduced during the course of the week, it persisted around the same areas on many days of the week; under its influence, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity had been reported over parts of East India and over eastern parts of Central India and East Uttar Pradesh during the week along with isolated heavy/very heavy rainfall reported over parts of East India and East Uttar Pradesh on many days and over eastern parts of Central India on three to four days.

♦ Convergence of strong westerlies had caused widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity over coastal areas and isolated to scattered rainfall activity over interior areas of Maharashtra during the week; isolated heavy /very heavy rainfall had been reported over coastal areas on many days whereas isolated heavy rainfall had been reported over interior areas on three to four days along with.

♦ Under the influence of cyclonic circulations in the lower tropospheric levels supported by moisture incursion from Arabian Sea, scattred to fairly widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity had occurred over Gujarat State, East Rajasthan and adjoining areas of West Madhya Pradesh with isolated heavy/very heavy rainfall reported over these areas on two to three days.

Heavy Rain:

♦ Heavy to Very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls at isolated places had occurred over Assam & Meghalaya on five days; over Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar and Uttarakhand on one day each during the week.

♦ Heavy to Very heavy rainfall at isolated places had occurred over Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on four days; over Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, Konkan & Goa and Chhattisgarh on three days each; over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat Region on two days each; over Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, East Madhya Pradesh, Telengana, Rayalseema and North Interior Karnataka on one day each during the week.

♦ Heavy rainfall at isolated places had occurred over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Madhya Maharashtra and East Madhya Pradesh on four days each; over East Rajasthan, Konkan & Goa, Tamil nadu, Puducherry & Karaikkal and Telangana on three days each; over Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, East & West Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat Region and Marathwada on two days each; over Andaman &

Nicobar Islands, Gangetic West Bengal, Uttarakhand, West Rajasthan, Saurashtra & Kutch, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh,Rayalseema and Kerala & Mahe on one day each during the week.

Hailstorm:

♦ Hailstorm at isolated places had occurred over northern parts of West Rajasthan on one day during the week.

Temperature Scenario: ♦ Heatwave

♦ Heatwave conditions at most places with Severe Heatwave conditions at isolated places had occurred over Punjab and over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi on one day each during the week.

♦ Severe Heatwave conditions at isolated places had occurred over East Rajasthan on one day during the week.

♦ Heatwave conditions at isolated places had occurred over Jammu division of Jammu Kashmir & Ladakh, West Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and northern parts of West Madhya Pradesh on one day each during the week.

♦ The highest maximum temperature of 45.8^oC had been recorded at Ganganagar(West Rajasthan) on 29^th June 2021 and the lowest minimum temperature of 18.6 ^oC had been recorded at Khargone( East Madhya Pradesh) on 24^th June 2021 and at Bangalore (South Interior Karnataka) on 25^th June 2021 over the plains of the country during the week.

LEGEND: A few days- 3 days, Many days- 4 to 5 days and Most days- 6 to 7 days during the week.

Government of India Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department National Weather Forecasting Centre

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METEOROLOGICALANALYSIS

♦ Last week’s trough at mean sea level from north Punjab to Northeast Bay of Bengal across Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, north Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal persisted on 24^th June 2021; it ran from East Uttar Pradesh to Northeast Bay of Bengal across the cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand & neighbourhood and Gangetic West Bengal on 25^th; it ran from East Uttar Pradesh to Northwest Bay of Bengal across Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal on 26^th; it ran from northwest Uttar Pradesh to Northwest Bay of Bengal across East Uttar Pradesh, south Jharkhand and north Odisha on 27^th;it has become less marked on 28^th June 2021.

♦ Last week’s cyclonic circulation over southwest Bihar & adjoining southeast Uttar Pradesh lay over Jharkhand &

neighbourhood and extended upto 5.8 km above mean sea level tilting southwestwards with height on 24^th and 25^th June 2021; it persisted over the same areas and extended upto 3.1 km above mean sea level on 26^th; it lay over north Chhattisgarh & neighbourhood and extended upto 3.1 km above mean sea level on 27^th; it lay over northeast Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood at 1.5 km above mean sea level on 28^th;it has become less Marked on 29^th June 2021.

♦ Last week’s trough from the cyclonic circulation over southwest Bihar & adjoining southeast Uttar Pradesh to south Chhattisgarh ran from the cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and neighbourhood to south Coastal Andhra Pradesh across interior Odisha and extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 24^th June 2021; it ran from the cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and neighbourhood to south Odisha at 0.9 km above mean sea level on 25^th; it has become less marked on 26^th June 2021.

♦ Last week’s Western Disturbance as a trough in mid & upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level ran roughly along Long. 71°E to the north of Lat. 25°N on 24^th June 2021;it lay with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along Long. 71°E to the north of Lat. 30°N on 25^th; it ran with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along Long. 71°E to the north of Lat. 28°N on 26^th; it has moved away northeastwards on 27^th June 2021.

♦ Last week’s cyclonic circulation over Northeast & adjoining Northwest Arabian Sea at 5.8 km above mean sea level has become less marked on 24^th June 2021.

♦ An east-west trough ran from the cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and neighbourhood to north Gujarat across north Chhattisgarh and south Madhya Pradesh at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 24^th June 2021;it has become less marked on 25^th June 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over northeast Rajasthan & neighbourhood and extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 24^th June 2021;it lay over Haryana & neighbourhood at 0.9 km above mean sea level on 25^th;it lay over northeast Rajasthan & neighbourhood at 0.9 km above mean sea level on 26^th;it has become less marked on 27^th June 2021.

♦ A Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation lay over West Afghanistan & neighbourhood at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 25^th June 2021; it has become less marked on 26^th June 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over southwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood between 3.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 25^th June 2021; it persisted over the same areas and was seen at 5.8 km above mean sea level on 26^th; it has become less marked on 27^th June 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over Pakistan & adjoining Punjab at 1.5 km above mean sea level on 25^th June 2021; it lay over northwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood and extended upto 2.1 km above mean sea level on 26^th;it lay over northwest Rajasthan & adjoining Pakistan and extended upto 2.1 km above mean sea level on 27^th;it has become less marked on 28^th June 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over south Odisha & neighbourhood between 0.9 km & 2.1 km above mean sea level on 26^th June 2021;it lay over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & neighbourhood

and extended upto 4.5 km above mean sea level tilting southwards with height on 27^th; it lay over Telangana &

neighbourhood between 1.5 & 5.8 km above mean sea level tilting westwards with height on 28^th; it has become less marked on 29^th June 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over south Gujarat region & neighbourhood between 2.1 km & 3.1 km above mean sea level on 26^th June 2021; it persisted over the same areas and was seen between 2.1 km & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 27^th; it has become less marked on 28^th June 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over Westcentral Arabian Sea off south Oman coast between 3.1 km & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 26^th and it persisted over the same areas between the same levels on 27^th and 28^th June 2021; it lay over Westcentral Arabian Sea & adjoining south Oman coast at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 29^th; it persisted over the same areas at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 30^th June 2021.

♦ A Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation lay over south Afghanistan & neighbourhood at 5.8 km above mean sea level on 27^th June 2021; it lay over north Pakistan &neighbourhood at 5.8 km above mean sea level on 28^th; it has become less marked on 29^th June 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over northwest Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood at 0.9 km above mean sea level on 27^th June 2021; it lay over East Rajasthan & neighbourhood at 0.9 km above mean sea level on 28^th; it persisted over the same areas and extended upto 0.9 km above mean sea level on 29^th; it has become less marked on 30^th June 2021.

♦ A trough at 0.9 km above mean sea level ran from the cyclonic circulation over East Rajasthan & neighbourhood to West Assam on 28^th June 2021; it has become less marked on 29^th June 2021.

♦ A trough ran from North Interior Karnataka to Saurashtra between 3.1 km & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 28^th June 2021; it has become less marked on 30^th June 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over Comorin area and adjoining Equatorial India Ocean between 5.8 km & 7.6 km above mean sea level on 28^th June 2021; it has become less marked on 29^th June 2021.

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♦ A Western Disturbance as a trough in mid & upper westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level ran roughly along Long. 60°E to the north of Lat. 28°N in the afternoon of 28^th June 2021; it continued as a trough in mid

& upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level which ran roughly along Long.60°E to the north of Lat.30°N on 29^th and roughly along Long.63°E to the north of Lat.30°N on 30^th June 2021.

♦ A trough at mean sea level ran from East Uttar Pradesh to northeast Assam across Bihar and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal on 29^th June 2021;it ran from northeast Uttar Pradesh to northeast Assam across Bihar and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and extended upto 0.9 km above mean sea level on 30^th June 2021.

♦ A trough ran from Eastcentral Arabian Sea off north Maharashtra coast to south Kerala across Coastal Karnataka between 3.1 & 4.5 km above mean sea level on 29^th June 2021; it has become less marked on 30^th June 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over north Pakistan and neighbourhood and extended upto 2.1 km above mean sea level on 30^th June 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over North East Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra & Kutch between 3.1 km and 5.8 km above mean sea level on 30^th June 2021.

♦ A trough ran from Vidharbha to South Tamil Nadu across Telangana and Interior Tamil Nadu at 0.9 km above mean sea level on 30^th June 2021.

RAINFALL SUMMARY

Category of the rainfall

WEEK SEASON

24.06.2021 TO 30.06.2021 01.06.2021 TO 30.06.2021 Number of Sub-divisions Number of Sub-divisions

LARGE EXCESS (+60% or more) 1 3

EXCESS (+20% to +59%) 5 13

NORMAL (+19% to -19%) 6 12

DEFICIENT (-20% to -59%) 11 8

LARGE DEFICIENT (-60% to -99%) 13 0

NO RAIN (-100%) 0 0

Cumulative rainfall (mm) ^Actual Normal % Departure Actual Normal % Departure EAST & NORTH-EAST INDIA 84.2 94.5 -11% 357.3 347.1 +3%

NORTH-WEST INDIA 12.4 28.8 -57% 85.7 75.3 +14%

CENTRAL INDIA 42.1 61.7 -32% 198.8 169.2 +17%

SOUTH PENINSULA 27.6 40.8 -32% 166.2 160.2 +4%

country as a whole 36.8 52.7 -30% 182.9 166.9 +10%

• Sub-division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is presented in Fig-2 and Fig-3.

• Sub-divisionwise daily distribution of realised Rainfall is shown in Table-1(A).

• Sub-divisionwise departure of realised Maximum temperature from Normal is shown in Table-1(C)

• Statewise distribution of number of districts with Large-Excesse, Excess, Normal, Deficient, Large-deficient and no rainfall is shown in Table-2.

• Cumulative seasonal rainfall data during the corresponding weekly period for the last five years are given in Table-3.

• Sub-divisionwise realised weekly rainfall (in cm) is shown in Annexure-1.

FORECAST & WARNING FOR THE NEXT WEEK 01 July TO 07 July, 2021

➢ Detailed seven days Sub-division wise rainfall-forecast is given in Table-1(B).

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Fig-1

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Table-1 (A)

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE DISTRIBUTION OF REALISED RAINFALL-2021

S.No. MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 24 JUN 25 JUN 26 JUN 27 JUN 28 JUN 29 JUN 30 JUN

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS WS FWS* FWS SCT ISOL FWS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS WS FWS FWS FWS WS WS

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS FWS FWS WS FWS* WS* WS*

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS SCT SCT FWS FWS WS FWS

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM FWS WS WS WS WS WS* WS*

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT SCT FWS SCT FWS ISOL SCT

7 ODISHA FWS SCT ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

8 JHARKHAND SCT FWS FWS SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL

9 BIHAR SCT SCT WS* FWS* SCT FWS FWS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH FWS* FWS* SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D ISOL D

12 UTTARAKHAND SCT ISOL FWS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL D D D

14 PUNJAB ISOL SCT FWS ISOL D D D

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL FWS FWS ISOL D D D

16 JAMMU & KASHMIRANDLADAKH FWS ISOL SCT ISOL D D D

17 WEST RAJASTHAN ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

18 EAST RAJASTHAN SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH FWS* FWS* ISOL SCT SCT SCT ISOL

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH WS* FWS* SCT ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL

21 GUJARAT REGION SCT FWS* ISOL ISOL SCT FWS ISOL

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL

23 KONKAN & GOA WS WS WS WS WS WS FWS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA SCT SCT SCT SCT WS FWS ISOL

25 MARATHAWADA FWS* ISOL ISOL FWS WS* SCT ISOL

26 VIDARBHA WS WS SCT FWS WS FWS SCT

27 CHHATTISGARH WS FWS SCT FWS FWS ISOL ISOL

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM FWS* SCT ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

29 ^TELANGANA SCT SCT ISOL WS* WS* ISOL ISOL

30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL ISOL FWS** SCT ISOL ISOL

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT ISOL D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS FWS WS WS SCT FWS ISOL

33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL FWS WS WS** WS* ISOL ISOL

34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL ISOL FWS SCT ISOL ISOL

35 KERALA & MAHE FWS ISOL FWS WS SCT SCT ISOL

36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT SCT FWS SCT WS FWS WS

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%) SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO STATION REPORTED RAINFALL

* ACTIVE (R/F 1^1/2- 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 5 cm. along west coast & 3 cm. elsewhere )

** VIGOROUS (R/F More than 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 8 cm. along west coast & 5 cm. elsewhere)

(10)

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Table-1 (B)

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST -2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 01 JUL 02 JUL 03 JUL 04 JUL 05 JUL 06 JUL 07 JUL

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT WS FWS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS^● WS FWS

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS^●● WS^●●● WS^●●● WS^●● WS^● WS WS

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS^● WS^● FWS^● FWS FWS WS FWS

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS^●● WS^●●● WS^●●● WS^●● WS^● WS WS

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWS^● SCT^● SCT SCT FWS SCT FWS

7 ODISHA FWS^● SCT ISOL ISOL SCT SCT WS

8 JHARKHAND SCT^● SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS FWS

9 BIHAR WS^●● WS^●● FWS^● FWS^● FWS FWS FWS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH SCT SCT^● SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

12 UTTARAKHAND SCT^● WS^●● FWS^● FWS^● SCT FWS WS

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

14 PUNJAB ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL SCT

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT FWS

16 JAMMU & KASHMIRANDLADAKH ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS SCT

17 WEST RAJASTSAN D D D D D D D

18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOL D D D D D D

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

21 GUJARAT REGION ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH ISOL ISOL D D D D D

23 KONKAN & GOA WS WS WS WS WS WS WS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS FWS

26 VIDARBHA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WS

27 CHHATTISGARH SCT^● SCT^● FWS^● SCT SCT FWS FWS

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM FWS^● FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS

29 TELANGANA FWS^● FWS^● SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS

30 RAYALASEEMA FWS^● FWS SCT SCT ISOL ISOL SCT

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT^● SCT^● SCT^● SCT^● SCT^● ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS WS

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS SCT

35 KERALA & MAHE FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT FWS

36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT FWS

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

(11)

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Table-1 (C)

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE REALISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE-2021

S.No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 24 JUN 25 JUN 26 JUN 27 JUN 28 JUN 29 JUN 30 JUN

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS N N N N N N N

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH N N N N N N N

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA N N N N N N N

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA N N N N N N N

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM N N N N N N N

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL N N N N N N AN

7 ODISHA N N N N N AN N

8 JHARKHAND N N N N AN AN AAN

9 BIHAR N N N N N N BN

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH N N N N N N N

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH N N N N N N MAN

12 UTTARAKHAND N N N N AN AAN AAN

13 HARYANA, CHD. & DELHI N AN N N N AAN MAN

14 PUNJAB N N N N AN AAN N

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH N N BN AN N AN AAN

16 JAMMU & KASHMIRANDLADAKH N N ABN N AN N AAN

17 WEST RAJASTHAN N N N N AN N N

18 EAST RAJASTHAN N N BN N AN N N

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH N N N N N N N

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH N N N N N N AAN

21 GUJARAT REGION BN N N N N N N

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH N N N N N AN AN

23 KONKAN & GOA N N N N N N N

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA N N N BN N N N

25 MARATHAWADA N N N N BN N N

26 VIDARBHA MBN N AN AN N N AAN

27 CHHATTISGARH ABN N N N N N N

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. &

YANAM N N N N N N N

29 TELANGANA N N N BN N N AN

30 RAYALASEEMA N N N ABN N N AN

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL N N N BN N N N

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA AN AN N N N N AAN

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA N N N ABN N N AN

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA N N N BN N N AAN

35 KERALA & MAHE N N N AN AN AAN AAN

36 LAKSHADWEEP N N N N N N N

Highest Maximum Temperature (°C) 43.4 43.0 40.8 41.8 43.2 45.8 44.4

Station/(s) observed HMT Churu Churu Bikaner Phalodi Churu Ganganagar Pilani

Station/(s) lies in Met-Subdivision/(s) W RAJ W RAJ W RAJ W RAJ W RAJ W RAJ E RAJ

Lowest Minimum Temperature (°C) 18.6 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.0 19.5 21.0

Station/(s) observed LMT Khargone Bangalore Bidar Medak Bidar Bulsar Narsingpur

Station/(s) lies in Met-Subdivision/(s) E MP SIK NIK TLG NIK Guj. Reg. E MP

LEGENDS:

BN - BELOW NORMAL (N-2)^OC AN - ABOVE NORMAL (N+2)^OC

N - NORMAL (N+1,N-1)ÔC ABN - APPRECIABLY BELOW NORMAL (N-3.1 to -4.9)ÔC AAN - APPRECIABLY ABOVE NORMAL (N+3.1 to +4.9)ÔC MBN - MARKEDLY BELOW NORMAL (N-5 AND BELOW )ÔC MAN - MARKEDLY ABOVE NORMAL (N+5 AND ABOVE)ÔC

⁺Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5ÔC to +6.4ÔC)  -Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5ÔC to -6.4ÔC)

⁺⁺ Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5^OC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5^OC)

(12)

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Table-2

STATEWISE DISTRIBUTION OF NO. OF DISTRICTS WITH EXCESS, NORMAL,DEFICIENT,SCANTY AND NO RAINFALL

S. STATES PERIOD FROM : 01-06-2021 TO 30-06-2021

NO. LE E N D LD NR ND TOTAL

1 A & N ISLAND (UT) 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 3

2. ARUNACHAL PRADESH 0 2 5 8 1 0 0 16

3. ASSAM 2 4 11 9 1 0 0 27

4. MEGHALAYA 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 7

5. NAGALAND 1 0 2 3 5 0 0 11

6. MANIPUR 0 1 3 5 0 0 0 9

7. MIZORAM 0 0 1 6 1 0 0 8

8. TRIPURA 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 4

9. SIKKIM 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 4

10. WEST BENGAL 2 10 6 1 0 0 0 19

11. ODISHA 1 5 12 12 0 0 0 30

12. JHARKHAND 8 7 8 1 0 0 0 24

13. BIHAR 32 4 1 1 0 0 0 38

14. UTTAR PRADESH 32 10 13 16 4 0 0 75

15. UTTARAKHAND 0 7 4 2 0 0 0 13

16. HARYANA 1 2 7 8 4 0 0 22

17. CHANDIGARH (UT) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

18. DELHI 1 0 2 4 2 0 0 9

19. PUNJAB 2 5 9 5 1 0 0 22

20. HIMACHAL PRADESH 0 0 7 4 1 0 0 12

21. JAMMU & KASHMIR(UT) 0 2 3 9 6 0 0 20

22. LADAKH(UT) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2

23. RAJASTHAN 1 6 14 11 1 0 0 33

24. MADHYA PRADESH 15 14 13 9 0 0 0 51

25. GUJARAT 1 4 13 11 4 0 0 33

26. DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI (UT) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1

27. DAMAN & DIU (UT) 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2

28. GOA 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2

29. MAHARASHTRA 5 16 12 3 0 0 0 36

30. CHHATISGARH 5 10 10 2 0 0 0 27

31. ANDHRA PRADESH 1 2 3 7 0 0 0 13

32. TELANGANA 15 11 5 2 0 0 0 33

33. TAMILNADU 7 8 12 10 1 0 0 38

34. PUDUCHERRY (UT) 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 4

35. KARNATAKA 10 8 10 2 0 0 0 30

36. KERALA 0 0 1 13 0 0 0 14

37. LAKSHADWEEP (UT) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

TOTAL 144 148 198 172 32 0 0 694

CATEGORYWISE DISTRIBUTION

OF DISTRICTS OUT OF THE 21% 21% 28% 25% 5% 0%

694 WHOSE DATA RECEIVED

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF DISTRICTS IN EARLIER YEARS SINCE 1st OCTOBER

DATE LE E N D LD NR

30-6-2021 21% 21% 28% 25% 5% 0%

1-7-2020 21% 22% 29% 23% 5% 0%

3-7-2019 3% 6% 24% 42% 25% 0%

27-6-2018 6% 15% 30% 30% 18% 1%

29-6-2016 17% 15% 28% 29% 11% 0%

(13)

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Table-3

RAINFALL DURING MONSOON SEASON

S.

No.

Meteorological Sub-Divisions

For the period from 1

^st

June to 29 JUN

2016

28 JUN 2017

27 JUN 2018

03 JUL 2019

01 JUL 2020

30 JUN 2021

1. Andaman &

Nicobar Islands A N D

409 426 -4

330 415 -20

491 402 +22

664 449 +48

514 427 +21

316 414 -24 2. Arunachal

Pradesh

A N D

385 484 -20

342 471 -28

266 451 -41

338 548 -38

531 513 +4

377 491 -23 3 Assam &

Meghalaya

A N D

305 485 -37

392 470 -17

328 455 -28

403 557 -28

651 517 +26

454 497 -9 4. Nagaland,

Manipur, Mizo.

& Tripura

A N D

232 398 -42

486 387 +25

351 374 -6

267 434 -39

265 410 -36

246 398 -38 5.

Sub-Himalayan West Bengal &

Sikkim

A N D

542 464 +17

350 446 -21

349 427 -18

385 550 -30

729 505 +44

462 483 -4 6. Gangetic West

Bengal

A N D

166 231 -28

185 219 -16

183 209 -12

146 289 -49

285 265 +7

369 256 +44

7. Odisha A

N D

156 205 -24

191 197 -3

130 187 -30

209 246 -15

257 225 +14

181 218 -17 8. Jharkhand

A N D

124 187 -34

110 176 -37

113 165 -31

132 228 -42

205 209 -2

269 200 +34 9. Bihar

A N D

129 156 -17

83 145

-43

92 136

-33

110 201 -45

312 179 +74

354 168 +111 10. East Uttar

Pradesh

A N D

77 99 -22

42 91 -54

35 82 -58

54 125

-57

205 114 +79

205 108 +89 11. West Uttar

Pradesh

A N D

60 65 -7

49 58 -16

24 52 -54

29 89 -67

52 81 -36

73 76 -3 12. Uttarakhand

A N D

161 159 +2

133 150 -11

118 140 -15

96 204

-53

148 186 -20

263 178 +48 13. Haryana,

Chandigarh &

Delhi

A N D

32 41 -21

75 39 +94

28 36 -23

19 57 -66

48 51 -7

49 48 +2 14. Punjab

A N D

52 40 +30

72 37 +93

53 35 +53

27 62 -56

50 54 -7

50

50 -1

(14)

5

S. No.

Meteorological Sub-Divisions

For the period from 1

^st