The cyclonic circulation over eastern Vidarbha and its neighborhood is now over Marathawada and its neighborhood and extends up to 4.5 km above sea level and tilts towards the southwest with height. Last week's cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area and the surrounding area at 1.5 km above mean sea level became less pronounced on July 8, 2021. On July 8, 2021, there was a cyclonic circulation over South Rajasthan and its vicinity at 3.1 km above mean sea level.
19°N between 2.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level tilting southwards with elevation at 11th; it ran roughly along Lat. 18°N between 3.1 km & 5.8 km above mean sea level tilting southward with elevation at 12th; it continued to pass along Lat. 18°N and was seen between 2.1 km & 5.8 km above mean sea level tilting southward with elevation at 13th; it has roughly along Lat.
A cyclonic circulation lay over northern Pakistan and vicinity and extended to 2.1 km above mean sea level on 10 July 2021; it marked less on 11 July 2021. A cyclonic circulation lay over central Assam and vicinity and extended to 1.5 km above mean sea level on 14 July 2021.
RAINFALL DURING MONSOON SEASON
Meteorological Sub-Divisions
12 JUL 2017
11 JUL 2018
17 JUL 2019
15 JUL 2020
14 JUL 2021
Andaman &
Nicobar Islands A
Pradesh
Meghalaya
Manipur, Mizo
Sub-Himalayan West Bengal &
Sikkim
Bengal
Chandigarh &
Delhi
2016 12 JUL
2017 11 JUL
2018 17 JUL
2019 15 JUL
2020 14 JUL 2021
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu &
Kashmir and Ladakh
Kutch
Maharashtra
Coastal Andhra Pradesh &
Yanam
Rayalaseema A
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &
Karaikal
Karnataka
Subject: Current Weather Status and Extended range Forecast for next two weeks (15-28 July 2021)
2 | P a g e tilts to the southwest with the height; this system along with an east-west shear zone in lower/mid-tropospheric levels around 18°-19°N, which continued for most of the week, has caused fairly widespread to widespread rain/thunderstorm activity over parts of eastern, central and Peninsular India and adjoining areas of Maharashtra on many days during the week;. The formation of the above low pressure area has caused a strengthening of the monsoon flow and its convergence along the west coast has caused fairly widespread to widespread rain/thunderstorm activity along with heavy to very heavy/extremely heavy rainfall along the west coast and over the Ghats sections of Maharashtra and Karnataka in during the week. Another low pressure area has formed over South Gujarat and adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea on 12 July 2021; it was over Saurashtra coast and neighborhood on 13th and over coastal areas of Kutch and neighborhood on 14 July 2021; this low pressure area along with its associated cyclonic circulation extending up to mid-tropospheric levels and the location of the monsoon trough to the south of its normal position has caused fairly widespread to widespread rain/thunderstorm activity along with isolated heavy/very heavy rainfall over Gujarat state in the second half of the week.
Convergence of strong easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal in the lower troposphere causing moisture intrusion into the region and its further extension over the region from mid-week has resulted in relatively widespread to widespread showers/thunderstorms in the western Himalayan region and isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms during the week over the neighboring plains of North-West India; it also caused isolated heavy/very heavy rainfall for a few days and isolated extremely heavy rainfall over Himachal Pradesh and Haryana for one day during the week. Konkan and Goa received heavy to very heavy rainfall for two days with exceptionally heavy rainfall at isolated places; over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Maharashtra one day each in a week. 4 | P a g e Interior of Karnataka for two days each; over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal, East Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat region and Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on one day a week.
Kutch, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Chhattisgarh, Rayalseema and North Interior Karnataka for three days each; over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar, Uttarakhand, East & West Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Coastal & Interior Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe for two days each; over Assam and Meghalaya, Gangetic West Bengal, Jammu Kashmir and Ladakh and Telengana one day each in a week. For one day in the week, heat waves occurred over West Rajasthan at isolated places.
Heavy rains occurred at isolated places over coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikkal for five days each; over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Gujarat region for four days each; over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Odisha, eastern &. The highest maximum temperature of 44.8 oC was recorded at Bikaner (West Rajasthan) on 11 July 2021 and the lowest minimum temperature of 18.0 oC was recorded at Rajnandgaon (Chhattisgarh) on 11 and 14 July 2021 over the plains of the state during the week. Details of rainfall distribution over four broad geographical regions of India are given in Table 1.
The latest forecast from the MMCFS and other global models together point to the possibility of the development of negative IOD conditions during the monsoon season. The Index of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 4 with an amplitude close to 1. It is likely that from the start of week 1 it will move to phase 5 with an amplitude slightly greater than 1, located further east propagates and enters phase 6 with gradual decrease in amplitude during the second half of week 2.
Therefore, the phase of the MJO is likely to promote enhancement of convective activity over the northern Indian Ocean (NIO) during week 1 and also for most of week 2.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely over North Rajasthan, Haryana, North West Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh during July 17-19 over Jammu and Kashmir on July 20 and will taper off thereafter. Isolated heavy rainfall is also very likely over Punjab and East Uttar Pradesh during July 17-19, after which it will taper off. Scattered rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Northeast India and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim till 16 July with an increase in rainfall between 17 and 19 July.
Fairly widespread to widespread rain on almost all dates during the week most likely over Konkan. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely with isolated heavy rains possible over other parts of peninsular India, other parts of central India and Bihar and West Gangetic Bengal till July 17 with light increase in distribution and intensity then with widespread to widespread precipitation in the region until July 20, 2021. Scattered to widespread precipitation with isolated heavy precipitation is likely in parts of the Northwest during the second half of the week.
Generally, normal to above normal rainfall activity is likely over West Coast, Northwest India (excluding Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh), Central and adjoining East India. Below normal rainfall activity is likely over Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, parts of southeastern peninsular India, northeastern states.
PERCENTAGE OF DISTRIBUTION OF DISTRICTS IN PREVIOUS YEARS FROM JUNE 1 OF DISTRICTS OUTSIDE.
