cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1 km above mean sea level persists.

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* Red color warning does not mean "Red Alert" Red color warning means "Take Action".

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day For more details kindly visit https://mausam.imd.gov.in or contact : 011-2434-4599

Monday, July 10, 2023 Time of Issue: 0800 hours IST (MORNING) ALL INDIA WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST BULLETIN

Significant Weather Features

Significant Weather features, Forecast and Warning during next 5 days:

❖ The monsoon trough is active with its western end to the south of its normal position and eastern end to the north of its normal position.

❖ A Low Pressure Area lies over southwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood.

❖ A Western Disturbance in lower & mid-tropospheric westerlies runs from north Pakistan to northeast Arabian Sea.

❖ The off-shore trough at mean sea level runs from south Gujarat coast to north Kerala coast.

Weather Forecast and Warning:

Northwest India: Light/moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely Western Himalayan Region, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Rajasthan on 10^th and Uttar Pradesh during next 5 days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Uttar Pradesh during 10^th-13^th July.

West India: Light/moderate widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall very likely to continue over Konkan

& Goa, ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat state during next 2 days and decrease thereafter.

East & adjoining Northeast India: Fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall with isolated Heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur during next 5 days. Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Odisha during next 5 days;

Jharkhand during 10^th-12^th; Andaman & Nicobar Islands on 10^th July and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Bihar during 11^th-13th July.

Central India: Light/moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over the region during next 5 days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over West Madhya Pradesh on 10^th July.

South India: Light/moderate widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall very likely to over Coastal Karnataka and Kerala during next 5 days.

No significant weather likely over rest parts of the country.

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Main Weather Observations

❖ Rainfall/thundershowers observed (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday): at most places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Gujarat state, Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka; at many places over East Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, South Interior Karnataka, Arunachal Pradesh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Punjab; at a few places over West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, North Interior Karnataka, Sub-Himalaya West Bengal & Sikkim and at isolated places over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit- Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, East Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh

& Yanam, Odisha, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Chhattisgarh, Lakshadweep, Vidarbha.

❖ Heavy Rainfall observed (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday): Heavy rainfall at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Delhi.

❖ Significant rainfall recorded (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday) (in cm): Himachal Pradesh:

Una-11, Nahan-9, Shimla & Mandi-6 each, Dharamshala, Shimla & Sundernagar-5 each; Delhi: Palam-11, Delhi-Ridge- 7, Delhi-Ayanagar-4; West Uttar Pradesh: Meerut-6, Jhansi-4; Punjab: Patiala-7 and Ambala-4; Uttarakhand: Dehradun- 4; East Rajasthan: Udaipur-3; Saurashtra & Kutch: Keshod & Rajkot-5 each, Naliya-3; Konkan & Goa: Dhanu-5;

Madhya Maharashtra: Nadurbar-3; Odisha: Chandbali-5; Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Car Nicobar-6, Hut Bay-3; East Madhya Pradesh: Jabalpur-3.

❖ Thunderstorm observed (from 0830 hours IST of yesterday to 0530 hours IST of today): at isolated places over Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Sub- Himalaya West Bengal & Sikkim, Gujarat state, East Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

❖ Minimum Temperature Departures (as on 09-07-2023): Minimum temperatures were above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at a few places over Marathwada and North Interior Karnataka and at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, East Madhya Pradesh and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam. They were appreciably below normal (-3.1°C to -5.0°C) at many places over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad; below normal (-1.6°C to -3.0°C) at most places Punjab and Coastal Karnataka; at many places over Himachal Pradesh, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi and West Rajasthan and at isolated places over Vidarbha, Telangana, Saurashtra & Kutch and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and near normal over rest parts of the country. Yesterday, the lowest minimum temperature of 19.9°C was reported at Malanjkhand (East Madhya Pradesh) over the plains of the country.

❖ Maximum Temperature Departures (as on 09-07-2023): Maximum temperatures were above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at most places over Sub-Himalaya West Bengal & Sikkim, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Gangetic West Bengal;

at many places over Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal; at a few places over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh; at isolated places over Kerala & Mahe. They were markedly below normal (-5.1°C or less) at most places over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi; at many places over Jammu-Kashmir- Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad; at a few places over West Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan; at isolated places over East Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Saurashtra & Kutch; appreciably below normal (-3.1°C to -5.0°C) at most places over East Rajasthan; at many places over Gujarat Region, West Madhya Pradesh; below normal (-1.6°C to -3.0°C) at isolated places over Vidarbha & Andaman & Nicobar Islands and near normal over rest parts of the country. Yesterday, the highest maximum temperature of 40.0°C was reported at Madurai (Tamil Nadu).

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Meteorological Analysis (Based on 0530 hours IST)

Weather Forecast for next 5 days (Upto 0830 hours IST of 15^th July, 2023)

Weather Outlook for subsequent 2 days (During 15^th July-17^th July, 2023)

❖

Meteorological sub-division wise detailed 5 days rainfall forecast is given in Table-1.

❖

No significant change in maximum temperatures likely over most parts of country during next 5 days.

❖ The Low Pressure Area

over southwest

Rajasthan & neighbourhood with the associated

cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1 km above mean sea level persists.

❖ The Monsoon Trough at mean sea level now passes through the centre of Low Pressure Area

over southwest

Rajasthan & neighbourhood, Kota, Satna, Daltonganj, Bankura and thence

eastwards to Manipur and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.

❖ The Western Disturbance as a trough between 3.1 & 9.5 km above mean sea level with its axis

at 5.8 km above mean sea level now runs roughly from Lat. 37°N./ Long. 68°E to Lat. 26°N./

Long. 65°E.

❖ The off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Gujarat coast to north Kerala coast persists.

❖

Fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall likely over most parts of the country

except over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, West

Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal where isolated to

scattered rainfall is likely.

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Table-1

7 Days Rainfall Forecast

S.

No. Subdivision

10-Jul 11- Jul 12-

Jul 13- Jul 14-

Jul 15- Jul 16-

Jul Day 1 Day

2 Day

3 Day 4 Day

5 Day 6 Day

7 1 ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS WS WS WS FWS FWS FWS FWS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS WS WS WS FWS FWS WS

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS WS WS WS FWS FWS WS

4 NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM & TRIPURA WS WS WS WS FWS FWS WS 5 SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM WS WS WS WS WS FWS FWS

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWS FWS FWS FWS WS FWS FWS

7 ODISHA FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS

8 JHARKHAND FWS WS WS WS FWS FWS FWS

9 BIHAR FWS FWS WS WS FWS FWS FWS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH WS WS WS WS WS FWS FWS

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH WS WS WS FWS WS FWS FWS

12 UTTARAKHAND WS WS WS WS WS WS WS

13 HARYANA CHANDIGARH & DELHI FWS SCT SCT FWS FWS SCT FWS

14 PUNJAB SCT ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT FWS

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

17 WEST RAJASTHAN SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL FWS FWS

18 EAST RAJASTHAN FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS SCT SCT

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH SCT FWS FWS WS FWS FWS FWS

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCT FWS FWS WS FWS FWS WS

21 GUJARAT REGION FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT WS WS

22 SAURASHTRA & KUTCH SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL FWS FWS

23 KONKAN & GOA WS WS WS WS WS WS WS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA SCT SCT SCT FWS SCT FWS FWS

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL ISOL FWS SCT FWS FWS

26 VIDARBHA SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS

27 CHHATTISGARH FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT FWS FWS

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH & YANAM SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT

29 TELANGANA SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS

30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL SCT SCT SCT FWS SCT SCT

31 TAMILNADU PUDUCHERRY & KARAIKAL SCT SCT ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS WS WS WS WS WS WS

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS 34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS

35 KERALA & MAHE WS WS WS WS FWS FWS FWS

36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS WS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS

Legend Category % Stations

WS Widespread/Most Places 76-100

FWS Fairly Widespread/Many places 51-75

SCT Scattered/ A Few Places 26-50

ISOL Isolated Places 1-25

DRY No Rain 0

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ALL INDIA WEEKLY WEATHER REPORT 29 JUNE 2023– 05 JULY, 2023

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES

♦ Advance of Southwest Monsoon:

❖ The Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab on 2^nd July 2023 and thus has covered the entire country on 2^nd July 2023, against the normal date of 8^th July (6 days ahead of the normal date for entire country coverage).

❖ The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passed through Lat. 29.4°N/ Long. 70.7°E, Bikaner, Narnaul, Firozpur and Lat. 32.5°N/ Long. 72.5°E from the beginning of the week till 1^st July 2023, before monsoon covered the entire country on 2^nd July 2023.

♦ A Low Pressure Area lay over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood in the beginning of the week; it has become less marked; however, its remnant cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels lay over central parts of south Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood on 30^th June and over northwest/central parts of Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood with the same vertical extension till 3^rd July and further seen over the same areas in the lower tropospheric levels till the end of the week; this system along with the influence of the east-west trough across Indo-Gangetic plains in the lower tropospheric levels had caused fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity over parts of Madhya Pradesh on three to four days and over parts of Uttar Pradesh on two to three days along with isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorm activity over these areas on the remaining days of the week; convergence of strong moist easterlies over to the region due to the presence of above two systems throughout the week had caused fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity over Uttarakhand on most of the days along with isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorm activity on the remaining days; heavy / very heavy rainfall had been reported over East Uttar Pradesh throughout the week and over West Uttar Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh for about five days and over East Madhya Pradesh for about three days; extremely heavy rainfall also had been reported over East Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh on one day each; heavy rainfall had been reported over Uttarakhand on four to five days along with very heavy rainfall over the same areas on a single day.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over Southeast Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood in the middle tropospheric levels in the beginning of the week; it gradually shifted westwards and lay over central parts of South Bay of Bengal & adjoining Central Bay of Bengal on 1^st July 2023, over central parts of Southwest Bay of Bengal on 2^nd and over Southwest & adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal on 3^rd, over Westcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coast with increased vertical extension (between 1.5 and 7.6 km above mean sea level) and tilting southwestwards with height on 4^th and over North & adjoining Central Bay of Bengal with the same vertical extension and tilting southwestwards with height towards the end of the week; under its influence, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity had occurred over Andaman & Nicobar islands throughout the week along with heavy rainfall reported on a single day;

this system had also caused scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikkal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Rayalseema during the second half of the week along with heavy/very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikkal and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on two to three days and heavy rainfall over Rayalseema on a single day towards the end of the week; the east-west shear zone across Lat. 15°N in the middle tropospheric levels had also contributed towards the rainfall activity over south Peninsula towards the end of the week.

♦ Convergence of strong southwesterlies/southerlies over to the region had caused fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity over Northeast India and adjoining Sub-Himalayan West Bengal

& Sikkim throughout the week; under its influence and also due to the influence of the east-west trough over Indo Gangetic plains passing across East India in the lower tropospheric levels, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity had occurred over Bihar also throughout the week and over Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal on three to four days with isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorm activity on the remaining days of the week; it had also caused isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorm activity over Odisha throughout the week; under their influence, heavy/ very heavy rainfall had occurred over Assam & Meghalaya and Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim throughout the week, over Odisha on most of the days and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand on three to four days; extremely heavy rainfall also had been reported over Assam &

Meghalaya on three days and over Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on one day along with.

Government of India Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department National Weather Forecasting Centre

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♦ Under the influence of an off shore trough which lay extending from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast on two days in the beginning of the week and from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast further and also due to the convergence of strong monsoon westerlies towards the coast, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity had occurred over Kerala & Mahe, Coastal Karnataka and Konkan & Goa throughout the week and over Madhya Maharashtra on many days; these synoptic situations along with a trough extending from the remnant cyclonic circulation of the Low pressure area over Uttar Pradesh to Northeast Arabian Sea across Gujarat State in the earlier part of the week and a cyclonic circulation which lay over south Gujarat Region & neighbourhood in the lower/middle tropospheric levels further, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity had occurred over Gujarat State for about four days along with isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorm activity on the remaining days of the week;

presence of an east-west shear zone across Lat. 15°N in the middle tropospheric levels had also contributed towards the rainfall activity over the west coast towards the end of the week; under their influence, heavy to very heavy rainfall had occurred over Konkan & Goa throughout the week along with extremely heavy rainfall on two days whereas heavy to very heavy rainfall had occurred over Gujarat State on four to five days with extremely heavy rainfall on two to three days; heavy rainfall had been reported over Coastal Karnataka throughout the week, over Madhya Maharashtra on most of the days and over Kerala & Mahe for about four days along with very heavy rainfall over these areas on two to three days.

Heavy Rainfall:

♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places had occurred over Assam &

Meghalaya and Gujarat Region on three days each; over Saurashtra & Kutch and Konkan & Goa on two days each; over Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, East Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh on one day each during the week.

♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall had occurred at isolated places over Bihar and Konkan & Goa on five days each; over Assam & Meghalaya, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, West Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra & Kutch, Madhya Maharashtra and Kerala & Mahe on three days each; over Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikkal and Coastal Karnataka on two days each; over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Punjab, East Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat Region, Chhattisgarh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Telangana on one day each during the week.

♦ Heavy rainfall had occurred at isolated places over Odisha , Coastal Karnataka and East Rajasthan on five days each; over East Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand on four days each; over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, West Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Maharashtra on three days each; over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, West Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra & Kutch, Chhattisgarh and South Interior Karnataka on two days each; over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam

& Meghalaya, Punjab, Jammu Kashmir & Ladakh, East Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat Region, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telengana, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &

Karaikkal, North Interior Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe on one day each during the week.

Thundersquall:

♦ Thundersquall had been reported at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands on one day during the week.

Temperature Scenario:

Heatwave

♦ Heatwave conditions had occurred at isolated places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on one day during the week.

♦ The highest maximum temperature of 42.0^oC had been recorded at Ganganagar & Bikaner (West Rajasthan) on 4^th July 2023 and the lowest minimum temperature of 17.6^oC had been recorded at Narsinghpur (East Madhya Pradesh) on 29^th June 2023 over the plains of the country during the week.

LEGEND: Few days-(3 days), Many days-4 to 5 days and Most days-6 to 7 days during the week.

METEOROLOGICALANALYSIS

❖Last week’s Low Pressure Area over northeast Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood lay over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 7.6 km above mean sea level on 29^th June 2023; the Low Pressure Area has become less marked;

however, its associated cyclonic circulation lay over central parts of south Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood and extended upto 5.8 km above mean sea level on 30^th June 2023; it lay over northwest Uttar Pradesh &

neighbourhood and extended upto 5.8 km above mean sea level on 1^st July 2023;it lay over central parts of Uttar Pradesh and extended upto 5.8 km above mean sea level on 2^nd; it lay over northwest Uttar Pradesh and extended upto 5.8 km above mean sea level on 3^rd; it lay over central parts of Uttar Pradesh

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and extended upto 3.1 km above mean sea level on 4^th; it persisted over the same region and was seen at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 5^th July 2023.

❖ Last week’s east-west trough from northwest Rajasthan to Northeast Bay of Bengal ran from northwest Rajasthan to Nagaland across East Rajasthan, the Low Pressure Area over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal and extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 29^th June 2023; it ran from northwest Rajasthan to Nagaland across the cyclonic circulation over central parts of south Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood , south Bihar and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and extended upto 0.9 km above mean sea level on 30^th June 2023; it ran from northwest Rajasthan to Manipur at mean sea level, across south Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and south Assam on 1^st July 2023;it lay as the Monsoon Trough at mean sea level and passed through Bikaner, Dausa, Gwalior, Sidhi, Ambikapur, Balasore and thence eastwards to Northwest Bay of Bengal on 2^nd; it passed through Firozpur, Karnal, Shahjahanpur, Sultanpur, Daltonganj, Digha, and thence southeastwards to Northwest Bay of Bengal on 3^rd and through Ganganagar, Delhi, Aligarh, Hamirpur, Prayagraj, Daltonganj, Balasore and thence southeastwards to Central Bay of Bengal on 4^th; it passed through Bikaner, Churu, Guna, Sidhi, Ambikapur, Balasore and thence southeastwards to Central Bay of Bengal on 5^th July 2023.

❖Last week’s off-shore trough at mean sea level from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast persisted at mean sea level with the same orientation on 29^th & 30^th June 2023; it ran from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast on 1^st July and from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast on 2^nd and 3^rd; it ran from south Gujarat coast to Kerala coast on 4^th; it ran from south Gujarat coast to north Kerala coast on 5^th July 2023.

❖Last week’s cyclonic circulation over south Gujarat coast & neighbourhood persisted over the same region and was seen between 4.5 km & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 29^th June 2023; it has merged with the trough from the cyclonic circulation over central parts of south Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood to Northeast Arabian Sea across West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat State between 4.5 & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 30^th June 2023.

❖Last week’s Western Disturbance was seen as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along Long. 74°E to the north of 32°N on 29^th and 30^th June 2023;it was seen as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along Long. 74°E to the north of 30°N on 1^st July 2023; it has moved away east-northeastwards on 2^nd July 2023.

❖ A trough ran from the cyclonic circulation over central parts of south Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood to Northeast Arabian Sea across West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat State between 4.5 & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 30^th June 2023; it ran from the cyclonic circulation over northwest Uttar Pradesh &

neighbourhood to Northeast Arabian Sea across East Rajasthan & Gujarat State between 3.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 1^st July 2023; it has become less marked on 2^nd July 2023.

❖ A cyclonic circulation lay over Southeast Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood between 4.5 & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 30^th June 2023;it lay over central parts of South Bay of Bengal & adjoining Central Bay of Bengal between 4.5 & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 1^st July 2023; it lay over central parts of Southwest Bay of Bengal between 4.5 & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 2^nd; it lay over Southwest &

adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal between 3.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 3^rd; it lay over Westcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coast and extended between 1.5 and 7.6 km above mean sea level tilting southwestwards with height on 4^th; it lay over North & adjoining Central Bay of Bengal between 1.5 & 7.6 km above mean sea level tilting southwestwards with height on 5^th July 2023.

❖ A cyclonic circulation lay over north Andaman Sea between 1.5 & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 2^nd July 2023; it has become less marked on 3^rd July 2023.

❖ A cyclonic circulation lay over Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 2^nd July 2023; it was seen as a trough from Sub-Himalaya West Bengal & Sikkim to north Chhattisgarh across Bihar and Jharkhand at 5.8 km above mean sea level on 3^rd; it has become less marked on 4^th July 2023.

❖ A cyclonic circulation lay over south Gujarat Region & neighbourhood between 2.1 & 4.5 km above mean sea level on 3^rd July 2023; it persisted over the same region and extended upto 3.1 km above mean sea level on 4^th; it has become less marked on 5^th July 2023.

❖ An east-west shear zone ran roughly along Lat. 15°N between 4.5 & 7.6 km above mean sea level on 4^th & 5^th July 2023.

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❖ A Western Disturbance was seen as a trough in mid tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along Long. 68°E to the north of Lat. 30°N on 5^th July 2023.

❖ A cyclonic circulation lay over north Pakistan & adjoining Punjab and extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 5^th July 2023.

RAINFALL SUMMARY

Category of the rainfall

WEEK SEASON

29.06.2023 TO 05.07.2023 01.06.2023 TO 05.07.2023 Number of

Sub-divisions

Sub-divisional % Area of Country

Number of Sub-divisions

Sub-divisional % Area of Country

LARGE EXCESS(LE) (+60% or more) 6 14% 3 14%

EXCESS (E) (+20% to +59%) 12 29% 6 9%

NORMAL (N) (+19% to -19%) 11 36% 11 34%

DEFICIENT (D) (-20% to -59%) 6 16% 16 43%

LARGE DEFICIENT (LD) (-60% to -99%) 1 5% 0 0%

NO RAIN (NR) (-100%) 0 0% 0 0%

Cumulative rainfall (mm) ^Actual_(mm) ^Normal_(mm) ^Departure_(%) ^Category ^Actual_(mm) ^Normal_(mm) ^Departure_(%) ^Category EAST & NORTH-EAST INDIA 96.2 96.3 0% N 332.9 399 -17% N

NORTH-WEST INDIA 44 34.3 +28% E 139.3 102 +37% E

CENTRAL INDIA 75.7 63.1 +20% E 202.9 216.1 -6% N

SOUTH PENINSULA 47.4 40.5 +17% N 129.6 189.5 -32% D

Country as a whole 63.6 55.1 +16% N 189.6 204.9 -7% N

 The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is shown in Fig-1.

 Weekly cumulative rainfall distribution is presented in Fig-2.

 Sub-division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is presented in Fig-3 and Fig-4.

 Sub-division wise daily distribution of realised Rainfall is shown in Table-1(A).

 Sub-division wise departure of realised Maximum temperature from Normal is shown in Table-1(C)

 State wise distribution of number of districts with Large-Excesses, Excess, Normal, Deficient, Large-deficient and no rainfall is shown in Table-2.

 Cumulative seasonal rainfall data during the corresponding weekly period for the last five years are given in Table-3.

 Sub-division wise realised weekly rainfall (in cm) is shown in Annexure-1.

FORECAST & WARNING FOR THE NEXT WEEK (06 JULY TO 12 JULY, 2023)

 Detailed seven days Sub-division wise rainfall-forecast is given in Table-1(B).

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Fig-1

Northern Limit of South West Monsoon, 2023

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Back to Top

Fig-2

WEEKLY CUMULATIVE RAINFALL MAP

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Back to Top

Table-1 (A)

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE DISTRIBUTION OF REALISED RAINFALL-2023

S. No. MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 29 JUN 30 JUN 01 JUL 02 JUL 03 JUL 04 JUL 05 JUL

1 ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS WS FWS WS WS WS WS WS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS FWS WS FWS WS WS SCT

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS FWS FWS FWS WS FWS FWS

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS FWS WS FWS FWS FWS WS*

5 SUB-HIM. W. BENGAL & SIKKIM WS WS* WS* WS* WS* WS WS

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL WS* FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT ISOL

7 ODISHA SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

8 JHARKHAND WS WS* SCT SCT FWS SCT FWS

9 BIHAR WS WS* WS* WS* WS* FWS FWS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH SCT WS* WS** WS* SCT SCT FWS

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH SCT FWS* FWS* SCT ISOL ISOL SCT

12 UTTARAKHAND FWS WS* WS WS* SCT FWS FWS

13 HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI SCT FWS* ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

14 PUNJAB ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS*

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH FWS FWS FWS FWS ISOL FWS FWS

16 JAMMU, KASHMIR & LADAKH SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS*

17 WEST RAJASTHAN SCT SCT ISOL SCT ISOL D ISOL

18 EAST RAJASTHAN FWS WS* SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH FWS* WS* FWS* FWS* SCT ISOL SCT

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH WS** WS* FWS FWS ISOL SCT SCT

21 GUJARAT REGION FWS* WS** WS* WS* SCT ISOL ISOL

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH WS* WS** WS** WS* SCT SCT SCT

23 KONKAN & GOA WS* WS* WS* WS WS WS WS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWS FWS* WS* FWS FWS SCT SCT

25 MARATHAWADA FWS ISOL FWS* ISOL FWS* ISOL FWS*

26 VIDARBHA FWS WS FWS FWS SCT SCT WS*

27 CHHATTISGARH FWS FWS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL WS* SCT

29 TELANGANA FWS ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL WS**

30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL FWS* SCT FWS*

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS WS WS WS WS WS* WS*

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL SCT SCT SCT WS* FWS* FWS*

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL WS SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS*

35 KERALA & MAHE WS WS FWS WS WS WS* WS**

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS WS SCT SCT WS WS WS

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%) SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO STATION REPORTED RAINFALL

* ACTIVE (R/F 1^1/₂- 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 5 cm. along west coast & 3 cm. elsewhere )

** VIGOROUS (R/F More than 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 8 cm. along west coast & 5 cm. elsewhere)

(12)

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Table-1 (B)

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST – 2023

S.No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 06 JUL 07 JUL 08 JUL 09 JUL 10 JUL 11 JUL 12 JUL

1 ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS FWS^● WS WS WS WS FWS SCT

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS^{●● L} WS^{●● L} WS^● WS^● WS^●● WS WS

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS^{●● L} WS^{●● L} WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS WS

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS^{● L} WS^{● L} WS^● WS WS WS WS

5 SUB-HIM. W. BENGAL & SIKKIM WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS WS

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL WS^● FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT

7 ODISHA WS^●● FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● FWS FWS

8 JHARKHAND WS^{● L} WS^{● L} FWS FWS FWS WS WS

9 BIHAR SCT^{● L} SCT^L FWS^{● L} FWS^{● L} FWS^{● L} WS WS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH SCT^L SCT^L SCT FWS^● WS^● WS WS

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH FWS^{●● L} FWS^● FWS^● WS^● WS^● WS WS

12 UTTARAKHAND WS^{●● L} WS^{●● L} WS^{●● L} WS^{●● L} WS^{●● L} WS WS

13 HARYANA, CHANDIGARH & DELHI WS^● FWS^● WS^● FWS^● FWS^● FWS SCT

14 PUNJAB WS^● FWS^● WS^● FWS^● FWS^● SCT ISOL

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● SCT ISOL

16 JAMMU, KASHMIR & LADAKH WS^● FWS WS^● WS^● SCT SCT ISOL

17 WEST RAJASTHAN FWS^{● L} FWS^{● L} WS^{●● L} FWS^●● FWS^{●● L} FWS SCT

18 EAST RAJASTHAN FWS^{●● L} FWS^{●● L} WS^{●● L} WS^●● WS^{●● L} WS SCT

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH WS^{● L} WS^{● L} FWS^L SCT^L SCT^L SCT FWS

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH FWS^{● L} FWS^{● L} FWS^L SCT^L SCT^L SCT WS

21 GUJARAT REGION WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS SCT

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH WS^●● WS^●● WS^●●● WS^●● FWS^● SCT ISOL

23 KONKAN & GOA WS^●●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS^● WS WS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWS^●● FWS^●● FWS^●● SCT^● SCT SCT SCT

25 MARATHAWADA FWS^● FWS SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

26 VIDARBHA WS^{● L} WS^{● L} FWS SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

27 CHHATTISGARH WS^{●● L} WS^{● L} FWS^L FWS^L FWS^L SCT SCT

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM FWS^{●● L} FWS^{● L} SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL

29 TELANGANA FWS^{● L} SCT^L SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

30 RAYALASEEMA FWS^L SCT SCT SCT ISOL SCT SCT

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT^{●● L} ISOL^{● L} ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS^{● ●● L} WS^{●● L} WS^● WS^● WS WS WS

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA WS^{● L} FWS^{● L} FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA WS^{●● L} FWS^{● L} FWS SCT FWS SCT SCT

35 KERALA & MAHE WS^{● ●● L} WS^● WS^● FWS FWS FWS SCT

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS WS WS FWS FWS SCT FWS

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

F Fog * Snowfall ^DSDust storm /^TS Thunderstorm

Thunderstorm with Squall

L Thunderstorm with Lightning ^#Thunderstorm with Hail

^-Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5ÔC to -6.4ÔC) ^{- -}Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5ÔC)

⁺Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5ÔC to +6.4ÔC) ^{+ +} Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5ÔC)