F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 23.09.2019
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 20.09.2019.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 12th September, 2019 – 18th September, 2019 has been 38% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 63% in Central India, by 55% in South Peninsula, by 20% in East & North East India and by 2% in North West India.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the monsoon season i.e. 01st June, 2019 to 18th September, 2019 has been 5% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 23% in Central India & 12% in South Peninsula but lower than the LPA by 17% in East &
North East India & 8% in North West India.
For monsoon season 01.06.2019 to 18.09.2019 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 11 met sub-divisions constituting 26% of the total area of the country has received excess rainfall, 18 met sub- divisions constituting 55% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall and 7 met sub-divisions constituting 19% of the total area of the country has received deficient rainfall.
Central Water Commission monitors 113 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 168.77 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 91 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 125.34 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in the 113 major reservoirs as on 19th September, 2019 has been 144.18 BCM as against 124.91 BCM on 19.09.2018 (last year) and 117.65 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 115% of last year’s storage and nearly 123% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
The All Commodities inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of August, 2019 remained at 1.08%, the same level of month of July, 2019.
The inflation rate was 4.62% during the corresponding period of last year.
The Primary Articles inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of August, 2019, increased to 6.43% from the level of 5.03% in the month of July, 2019. The inflation rate was (-) 0.07% during the corresponding period of last year.
The wholesale price index for non-food items increased to 4.76% from the previous month’s level of 4.29% and for the food items increased to 7.67% from the previous month’s level of 6.15%.
Among the foodgrains, inflation as per wholesale price index of Pulses has decreased to 16.36%
from the previous month’s level of 20.08, Wheat to 5.32% from the previous month’s level of 5.79% and Cereals to 8.48% from the previous month’s level of 8.60%. The inflation for Paddy increased to 3.34% from the previous month’s level of 3.16%.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 20.09.2019 for 2018-19 was at 443.08 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 380.76 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
The procurement of wheat as on 05.07.2019 for the Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2019-20 was 341.33 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 353.69 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of RMS 2018-19.
1. Monsoon Season (June – September) during the week ending 18th September, 2019
Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (12th September, 2019 to 18th September, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 18 met sub-divisions, normal in 5 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st June, 2019 to 18th September, 2019) Rainfall was excess in 11 met sub- divisions, normal in 18 met sub-divisions and deficient in 7 sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st June, 2019 to 18th Sept., 2019
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 20th Sept., 2019 to 24th Sept., 2019 is shown in Table 1.4
Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-III
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (18.09.2019) Cumulative (01.06.19 to 18.09.19) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 26.3 25.8 2 N 525.5 571.6 -8 N
Central India 68.3 41.9 63 LE 1136.7 923.8 23 E
South Peninsular India 55.9 36.1 55 E 735.7 655.8 12 N East & North-East India 86.5 71.9 20 E 1081.1 1307.2 -17 N
Country as a whole 55.8 40.5 38 E 861.1 823.9 5 N
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st June to 17 SEP
2014
16 SEP 2015
21 SEP 2016
20 SEP 2017
19 SEP 2018
18 SEP 2019 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 00 25 25
- 01 18 19
- 03 25 28
00 06 24 30
00 01 23 24
00 11 18 29 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
11 - 00 00 11
17 - 00 00 17
08 - 00 00 08
06 00 - 00 06
12 00 - 00 12
07 00 - 00 07
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 12 (-) 16% (-) 5% (-) 5% (-) 10% 5%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2019 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 19 SEP 20 SEP 21 SEP 22 SEP 23 SEP 24 SEP 25 SEP
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS●● WS● WS● WS●● WS● SCT ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH SCT TS SCT FWS FWS● FWS● SCT SCT
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOL TS ISOL SCT FWS● FWS● FWS●● SCT
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA SCT TS SCT FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS● SCT● 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS● FWS●
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT TS ISOL ISOL SCT SCT FWS●● WS●●
7 ODISHA FWS TS SCT TS SCT SCT● FWS● WS● WS●
8 JHARKHAND SCT TS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS WS●
9 BIHAR SCT TS SCT ISOL SCT SCT SCT FWS●
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH FWS● FWS● FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL SCT FWS ISOL ISOL SCT SCT●
12 UTTARAKHAND FWS● FWS● FWS● SCT ISOL SCT FWS●
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL SCT SCT ISOL D ISOL SCT
14 PUNJAB ISOL● SCT SCT ISOL D ISOL SCT
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH SCT● SCT SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS●
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR SCT SCT SCT ISOL D ISOL SCT●
17 WEST RAJASTHAN ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
18 EAST RAJASTHAN ISOL SCT● FWS● SCT● SCT SCT SCT
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH FWS SCT SCT FWS FWS● FWS● WS●
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. SCT● FWS●● FWS●● FWS● SCT SCT FWS● 22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU SCT● SCT●● FWS●●● WS●●● SCT● SCT FWS
23 KONKAN & GOA WS●●● WS●●● WS●● WS● WS WS WS
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA WS●● FWS●● FWS● SCT SCT FWS WS●●
25 MARATHAWADA WS● FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS WS●
26 VIDARBHA FWS FWS SCT FWS FWS● FWS● WS●
27 CHHATTISGARH SCT SCT SCT SCT● FWS● WS● WS●
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM FWS●● FWS FWS FWS● WS● WS● WS
29 TELANGANA WS● FWS SCT SCT FWS● WS● WS
30 RAYALASEEMA WS●● SCT SCT SCT FWS● FWS● FWS
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT●● SCT SCT FWS● FWS●● FWS● FWS●
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS● WS● WS● WS WS WS WS
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA WS● FWS SCT SCT SCT WS● WS●
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA WS● SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS
35 KERALA & MAHE WS● FWS FWS FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS
36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM +HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
$THUNDERSTORM WITH SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TS DUST/THUNDERSTORM -COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) --SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
Table: 1.4
Source: IMD
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 19.09.2019)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 113 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 168.77 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 65.46% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 113 major reservoirs increased to 144.18 BCM from the previous week’s level of 139.22 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 124.91 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 117.65 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 113 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
85 82
115 110
123 121
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 74% on 19/09/2018, 60% on 19/09/2017, 67% on 19/09/2016 and 57% on 19/09/2015.
Source: CWC
There were 100 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 6 reservoirs having storage between 51% to 80%, 3 reservoirs having storage between 31% to 50% and 4 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage out of these 2 reservoirs having no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Kharif 2018-19 (As on 20.09.2019)
(in ‘000 tonnes)
Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2019 613 833 265 1281 128
Requirement for Kharif 2019 15672 5122 2039 5297 2506
Estimated Requirement during Sept., 2019 2428 782 319 934 420 Cumulative Receipt upto 20.09.2019 13937 5070 1569 4634 2068 Cumulative Availability upto 20.09.2019 14549 5903 1834 5915 2196
Cumulative Sales upto 20.09.2019 14048 4094 1304 4355 2048
Closing Stock as on 20.09.2019 501 1809 530 1560 148
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL). However Gundhi bug reported on Paddy at Trace to Moderate in Bareilly, Badaun and Shahjhanpur districts of Uttar Pradesh. Fall army worm reported on Maize at Trace to Moderate in Deoria district of Uttar Pradesh. Tobacco Leaf eating caterpillar reported on Soybean at Moderate level in Latur, Amravati and Nanded districts of Maharashtra.
No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported from any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6.
Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items
Table: 6.1
Inflation (year on year)
Period / Commodities Weight Aug-2019 July-2019 Aug-2018
All Commodities 100 1.08 1.08 4.62
Primary Articles 22.62 6.43 5.03 -0.07
(a) Food Articles 15.26 7.67 6.15 -4.04
Cereals 2.82 8.48 8.60 5.05
Paddy 1.43 3.34 3.16 4.78
Wheat 1.03 5.32 5.79 8.39
Pulses 0.64 16.36 20.08 -14.12
Gram 0.26 6.93 13.72 -23.20
Arhar 0.13 38.09 35.07 -3.99
Moong 0.07 15.39 19.22 5.60
Masur 0.05 13.47 16.62 -11.03
Urad 0.09 20.04 23.01 -13.68
Vegetables 1.87 13.07 10.67 -20.00
Potato 0.28 -21.28 -23.63 71.21
Onion 0.16 33.01 7.63 -25.94
Fruits 1.60 19.70 15.38 -16.40
Milk 4.44 1.18 0.28 2.86
Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 6.60 3.16 0.00
(b) Non-Food Articles 4.12 4.76 4.29 2.65
Oilseeds 1.12 8.28 8.69 10.23
Fuel & Power 13.15 -4.00 -3.64 17.73
7.
All India Crop Situation - Kharif (2019-20) as on 20.09.2019
Table: 7.1
8.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 20.09.2019
Table: 8.1
(lakh tonnes)
9.
Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 05.07.2019
Table: 9.1
State Target in marketing
season 2018-19 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 20.09.2019
In Marketing season 2018-2019
In Marketing season 2017-2018
Andhra Pradesh 52.54 48.09 39.94
Telangana 45.00 51.86 36.18
Bihar 8.00 9.49 7.93
Chhattisgarh 40.00 39.71 32.07
Haryana 39.75 39.42 39.92
Jharkhand 2.50 1.53 1.43
Kerala 3.70 4.65 3.25
Madhya Pradesh 13.00 13.95 11.00
Maharashtra 5.50 5.80 1.79
Odisha 37.00 43.83 32.87
Punjab 114.00 113.34 118.39
Tamil Nadu 14.80 12.68 9.74
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 32.33 28.75
Uttrakhand 5.00 4.62 0.38
West Bengal 31.00 19.79 16.48
All-India 448.04 443.08 380.76
State Target in marketing
season 2019-20 (April - March)
Progressive Procurement as on 05.07.2019
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Bihar 2.00 0.03 0.15
Haryana 85.00 93.20 87.37
Madhya Pradesh 75.00 67.25 69.67
Punjab 125.00 129.12 126.62
Rajasthan 17.00 14.11 15.32
Uttar Pradesh 50.00 37.00 52.94
Uttrakhand 2.00 0.42 1.10
All-India 357.00 341.33 353.69
Annex-III Rainfall for next two weeks
Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1(19 to 25 September, 2019) and Week 2 (26 September to 02 October, 2019)
Rainfall for week 1: (19 to 25 September, 2019)
A low pressure area is very likely to form over Eastcentral Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of northeast Arabian Sea, north Konkan & south Gujarat coast by 20th September. It is likely to move west- northwestwards and concentrate into a Depression during the subsequent 48 hours.
Due to likely formation of low pressure area and east-west shear zone over south Peninsula, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over north Tamilnadu and Rayalaseema during most days of week 1. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra during 1st half of week 1 (with probable isolated extremely heavy falls over north Konkan on 19h & 20th Sept). Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over Gujarat during 20th - 22nd Sept with isolated extremely heavy falls over Saurashtra on 21st and 22nd September.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall very likely to occur over East India (Odisha, West Bengal &
Sikkim, Bihar Jharkhand) and northeast India with isolated heavy falls mainly during 2nd half of the week 1.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is very likely along rest parts of West Coast during the week 1.
Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is very likely over remaining parts of the country except Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and west Rajasthan, where light isolated to scattered rainfall or no rain likely to occur during the week 1.
Cumulatively, above normal rainfall likely over Gujarat, West Coast, East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. It is very likely to be normal to below normal over remaining parts of the country during week 1.
Rainfall for week 2: (26 September to 02 October, 2019)
During week 2, rainfall activity is likely to increase over most parts of the country with normal to above normal rainfall except Karnataka, Rayalaseema and northeastern states, where it is likely to be below normal.
Cyclogenesis:
There is high probability of cyclogenesis over northeast Arabian Sea during 1st half of week 1 and moderate probability of cyclogenesis over West central Bay of Bengal during 1st half of week 2.
Source: IMD
