F. No. 3-1/ 2016-17-CFCC-E&S GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 344-A, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 10.10.2016
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 07.10.2016.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
Details of the mean maximum and minimum temperature during the week 29th September, 2016 to 05th October, 2016 were as under:-
Maximum Temperature
Above normal by 4 to 60C over many parts of Assam, Manipur, some parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and isolated pockets of Meghalaya.
Above normal by 2 to 40C Sikkim & Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Mizoram, Tripura, many parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Tamil Nadu, some parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and isolated pockets of Jammu & Kashmir and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Normal to near normal over rest of the country except over many parts of Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, some parts of Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, North Interior Karnataka and isolated pockets of Marathwada and Telangana where it was below normal by 2 to 60C.
Minimum Temperature
Above normal by 4 to 60C over many parts of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, some parts of Jammu
& Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Haryana & Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and isolated pockets of West Rajasthan.
Above normal by 2 to 40C over Sikkim & Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Nagaland, many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, some parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana & Delhi, Assam, Gangetic West Bengal, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh and isolated pockets of Gujarat Region.
Normal to near normal over the rest of the country.
In the monsoon season, at all-India level, the rainfall during the week (29th – 05th October, 2016) has been 14% higher than the Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period has been higher than LPA by 86% in Central India but lower than LPA by 66% in East & North East India, 49% in South Peninsula and 30% in North West India.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the monsoon season i.e. 01st June to 30th September, 2016 has been 3% lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period has been higher than LPA by 6% in Central India but lower than LPA by 11% in East & North East India, 8% in South Peninsula and 5% in North-West India.
From the beginning of June to date, 27 of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions in the country had excess or normal rainfall and 9 experienced deficient rainfall. These 9 sub-divisions are Assam &
Meghalaya, Har. Chd. & Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat Region, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 157.80 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 76 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 116.25 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs as on 06th October, 2016 has been 118.43 BCM as against 95.07 BCM on 06.10.2015 (last year) and 120.97 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Thus, current year’s storage is higher than the last year’s storage by 25% but lower than normal storage by 2%.
The All Commodities inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of August, 2016, increased to 3.74% from the level of 3.56% in the month of July, 2016. The inflation rate was (-) 5.06% during the corresponding period of last year.
The Primary Articles inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of August, 2016, decreased to 7.47% from the level of 9.38% in the month of July, 2016. The inflation rate was (-) 4.21% during the corresponding period of last year.
The inflation for non-food items has decreased to 8.44% from the previous month’s level of 9.49% and for the food items has decreased to 8.23% from the previous month’s level of 11.82%.
Among the foodgrains, the inflation for Cereals has increased to 7.23% from the previous month’s level of 7.03%, Rice to 4.76% from the previous month’s level of 4.08% and Wheat 7.27% from the previous month’s level of 6.90%. The inflation for Pulses has decreased to 34.55% from the previous month’s level of 35.76%.
Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
1. Monsoon Season (June – September) during the week ending on 05th October, 2016
Sub-division-wise weekly rainfall forecast & weather warning is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (29th September, 2016 to 05th October, 2016) Rainfall was excess/normal in 14 and deficient/scanty in 22 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st June, 2016 to 30th September, 2016) Rainfall was excess/normal in 27 and deficient in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-division.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, S: Scanty, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table - 1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st June to
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 10th Oct., 2016 to 14th Oct., 2016 is shown in Table 1.4
Table: 1.1
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
North-east India - Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Region Week Ending (05.10.2016) Cumulative (01.06.16 to 30.09.16) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cat. (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 8.8 12.7 -30 D 584.2 615.0 -5 N
Central India 44.2 23.8 86 E 1034.1 975.5 6 N
South Peninsular India 21.4 42.4 -49 D 661.5 716.1 -8 N East & North-East India 18.2 53.4 -66 S 1281.5 1438.3 -11 N Country as a whole 24.7 28.7 -14 N 862.0 887.5 -3 N
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st June to 30 SEP
2011
30 SEP 2012
30 SEP 2013
30 SEP 2014
30 SEP 2015
30 SEP 2016 Excess
Normal Total
07 26 33
01 22 23
14 16 30
01 23 24
01 18 19
04 23 27 Deficient
Scanty No rain Total
03 00 00 03
13 00 00 13
06 00 00 06
12 00 00 12
17 00 00 17
09 00 00 09
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation
1% (-) 8% 6% (-) 12% (-) 14% -3%
Table: 1.4
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 06.10.2016)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 91 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 157.80 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 62% of total reservoir capacity in the country.
Water stock in 91 major reservoirs increased to 118.43 BCM from the previous week’s level of 117.20 BCM. Current storage is lower than the last year’s position of 95.07 BCM and lower than the average of last 10 year’s storage of 120.97 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 91 major reservoirs of the country Period Current Year’s
Storage as % of FRL*
Current Year’s storage as % of last year
Current year as a % of 10 years average level
Current Week Last Week
75 74
125 121
98 96
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 60% on 06/10/2015, 78% on 06/10/2014, 86% on 06/10/2013 and 75% on 06/10/2012.
* Live storage as % to Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 157.80 Billion Cub. Mts.(BCM) Source: CWC
There were 61 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 14 reservoirs having storage between 50% to 80% of Normal Storage, 09 reservoir having storage between 30% to 50%, 07 reservoir having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Kharif 2015-16 (As on 06.10.2016)
(in ‘000 Tonnes) Availability / Sale / Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP Opening Stock as on 01.10.2016 1698 1535 271 1200 - Requirement for Kharif, 2016-17 15136 5245 1841 5370 3357 Requirement upto October, 2016 2836 1543 360 1114 690
Availability upto 06.10.2016 2009 1643 272 1250 25
Sales upto 06.10.2016 30 3 1 7 8
Closing Stock upto 06.10.2016 1979 1640 271 1243 17
` Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
Incidence of Brown leaf spot on Rice has been reported in low to severe intensity in Berla block of Bemetara district of Chhattisgarh State. The crop stage is Tillering to flowering.
Incidence of Semilooper on Soyabean has been reported in low to moderate intensity in Nagpur, Wardha, Amravati, Akola, Washim and Bhandara districts of Maharashtra. The crop stage is pod formation.
Incidence of Eryophid mite & Black headed hairy caterpillar on Coconut have been reported in trace to moderate intensity in Brahmagiri block of Puri district of Odisha State.
Incidence of Armyworm/Rice swarming caterpillar on Rice crop has been reported in low to moderate intensity in general. The infestation of this pest has not been observed above ETL level in the surveyed fields in Kamrup and Goalpara districs.
Incidence of Spodoptera mauritia was recorded above ETL in some of the fields in Chandpara village of Rangjuli block Goalpara district. Lush green paddy fields were observed throughout survey route. The team also observed natural enemies like eggs of Cotesia sp. Trichogramma sp., Dragonflies, Campotelis & Spiders which provided effective control of the pest in normal situation. In the initial stage farmers themselves used Chlorpyriphos and Quinalphis to combat the pest situation in their fields. Later on the State Agriculture Department under disaster measurement scheme distributed four pesticides viz. Quinalphos, Chlorpyriphos, Cypermethrin and Malathion dust along with sprayer depending on area under paddy coverage. Total affected area is 34657 hectares out of total sown area of Sali Paddy 18.83 lakh hectatres. The crop stages are mid tillering.
No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported from any State / UT.
5. Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items
Table: 5.1
Inflation (year on year)
Period / commodities Weight August 2016 July 2016 August 2015
All Commodities 100 3.74 3.55 -5.06
Primary Articles 20.12 7.47 9.38 -4.21
(a) Food Articles 14.34 8.23 11.82 -1.02
Cereals 3.37 7.23 7.03 -1.98
Rice 1.79 4.76 4.08 -3.89
Wheat 1.12 7.27 6.90 2.09
Pulses 0.72 34.55 35.76 36.49
Gram 0.33 65.28 56.34 42.61
Arhar 0.13 12.20 22.51 48.40
Moong 0.08 -9.70 -6.55 14.62
Masur 0.05 -1.07 1.77 30.38
Urad 0.10 44.10 56.51 35.34
Vegetables 1.74 0.17 28.05 -20.03
Potato 0.20 66.72 58.78 -51.76
Onion 0.18 -64.19 -36.29 74.44
Fruits 2.11 13.91 17.30 -1.42
Milk 3.24 3.40 3.24 2.08
Egg, Meat & Fish 2.41 8.75 7.49 3.30
(b) Non-Food Articles 4.26 8.44 9.49 -0.46
Oilseeds 1.78 6.74 5.29 -2.20
Fuel & Power 14.91 1.62 -1.00 -16.21
