F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 344-A Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 24.07.2019
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 19.07.2019.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
• The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 11th July, 2019 – 17th July, 2019 has been 20%
lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 55% in East & North East India but lower than LPA by 68% in Central India, by 34% in South Peninsula and by 13% in North West India.
• The cumulative rainfall in the country during the monsoon season i.e. 01st June, 2019 to 17th July, 2019 has been 16% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been lower than LPA by 29%
in South Peninsula, 15% in Central India, 12% in North West India and 10% in East & North East India.
• For monsoon season 01.06.2019 to 17.07.2019 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 1 met sub-division constituting 2% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 16 met sub-divisions constituting 47% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall and 19 met sub-divisions constituting 51% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall.
• Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 161.99 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 76 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 120.44 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs as on 18th July, 2019 has been 39.32 BCM as against 51.54 BCM on 18.07.2018 (last year) and 44.69 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 76% of last year’s storage and nearly 88% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
• The All Commodities inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of June, 2019 decreased to 2.02% from the level of 2.45% in the month of May, 2019. The inflation rate was 5.68% during the corresponding period of last year.
• The Primary Articles inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of June, 2019, increased to 6.72% from the level of 6.16% in the month of May, 2019. The inflation rate was 4.74% during the corresponding period of last year.
• The wholesale price index for non-food items decreased to 5.06% from the previous month’s level of 6.23% and for the food items decreased to 6.98% from the previous month’s level of 6.99%.
• Among the foodgrains, inflation as per wholesale price index of Pulses has increased to 23.06%
from the previous month’s level of 18.36, Paddy to 2.92% from the previous month’s level of 2.20% and Cereals to 7.93% from the previous month’s level of 7.90%. The inflation for Wheat has decreased to 5.38% from the previous month’s level of 6.35%,
• All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 18.07.2019 for 2018-19 was at 439.12 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 362.81 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
The procurement of wheat as on 05.07.2019 for the Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2019-20 was 341.33 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 353.69 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of RMS 2018-19.
1. Monsoon Season (June – September) during the week ending 17th July, 2019
➢ Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
• Rainfall during the week (11th July, 2019 to 17th July, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 11 met sub-divisions, normal in 7 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 18 sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
• Cumulative rainfall (01st June, 2019 to 17th July, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 1 met sub-division, normal in 16 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 19 sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st June, 2019 to 17th July, 2019
Source: IMD
➢ Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 19th July, 2019 to 23rd July, 2019 is shown in Table 1.4
➢ Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-III
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (17.07.2019) Cumulative (01.06.19 to 17.07.19) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 46.5 53.5 -13 N 161.7 183.0 -12 N
Central India 22.1 70.0 -68 LD 286.4 338.3 -15 N
South Peninsular India 33.1 50.0 -34 D 194.8 275.0 -29 D East & North-East India 154.3 99.7 55 E 529.9 591.0 -10 N
Country as a whole 52.8 65.8 -20 D 268.8 318.4 -16 N
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st June to 16 JUL
2014
15 JUL 2015
20 JUL 2016
19 JUL 2017
18 JUL 2018
17 JUL 2019 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 00 07 07
- 04 20 24
- 08 22 30
01 05 26 32
00 11 16 27
00 01 16 17 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
20 - 09 00 29
12 - 00 00 12
06 - 00 00 06
04 00 - 00 04
09 00 - 00 09
18 01 - 00 19
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 43 (-) 4% 4% (-) 1% (-) 8% (-) 16%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2019 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 18 JUL 19 JUL 20 JUL 21 JUL 22 JUL 23 JUL 24 JUL
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS WS● WS● WS● WS WS WS
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH SCT SCT FWS FWS● WS● WS● WS●
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS FWS FWS FWS● FWS● FWS● FWS●
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM SCTTS SCT FWS● WS● WS● WS● WS●
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT TS SCT TS ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT
7 ODISHA WS● TS FWS● SCT SCT TS SCT TS SCT FWS
8 JHARKHAND SCT TS SCT ISOL ISOL FWS FWS WS●
9 BIHAR SCT ISOL ISOL SCT SCT FWS● FWS●
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS● FWS●
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS
12 UTTARAKHAND WS FWS FWS FWS● WS● WS●● WS●●
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI FWS● SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT
14 PUNJAB SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH FWS FWS FWS FWS● FWS● WS● WS●
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
17 WEST RAJASTHAN ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
18 EAST RAJASTHAN ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT FWS FWS●
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS● FWS●
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS 22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT
23 KONKAN & GOA WS● WS● WS● WS● WS● WS●● WS●●
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA SCT FWS● WS● WS● WS● WS● WS●
25 MARATHAWADA SCT FWS● WS● WS● WS● WS● WS●
26 VIDARBHA SCT FWS● WS● FWS SCT FWS FWS
27 CHHATTISGARH FWS FWS● SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM FWS● FWS FWS SCT SCT FWS FWS
29 TELANGANA FWS● WS● WS● WS● FWS FWS FWS
30 RAYALASEEMA SCT FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT● SCT●● SCT● SCT● SCT● ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA FWS● WS●● WS●●● WS●●● WS●●● WS●● WS●
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS FWS● WS● WS● WS● WS●● WS●●
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA WS●● WS●● WS●● WS●● WS●● WS●● WS●
35 KERALA & MAHE WS●●● WS●●● WS●●● WS●●● WS●● WS●● WS●
36 LAKSHADWEEP WS●● WS●● WS●● WS● WS● WS WS
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM +HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
$THUNDERSTORM WITH SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TS DUST/THUNDERSTORM -COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) --SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
Table: 1.4
Source: IMD
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 18.07.2019)
• The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 91 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 161.99 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
• Live Storage in 91 major reservoirs increased to 39.32 BCM from the previous week’s level of 35.11 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than the last year’s storage position of 51.54 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 44.69 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 91 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
24 22
76 94
88 95
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 32% on 18/07/2018, 26% on 18/07/2017, 29% on 14/07/2016 and 33% on 16/07/2015.
Source: CWC
There were 41 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 16 reservoirs having storage between 51% to 80%, 13 reservoirs having storage between 31% to 50% and 21 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage out of these 7 reservoirs having no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Kharif 2018-19 (As on 18.07.2019)
(in ‘000 tonnes)
Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2019 613 833 265 1281 128
Requirement for Kharif 2019 15672 5121 2038 5296 2505
Estimated Requirement during July 2019 3207 955 421 1148 486
Cumulative Receipt upto 18.07.2019 8189 3386 893 2570 1346
Cumulative Availability upto 18.07.2019 8801 4219 1158 3851 1474
Cumulative Sales upto 18.07.2019 7819 2293 671 2062 1322
Closing Stock as on 18.07.2019 982 1926 487 1789 152
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
• Incidence of Fall army worm reported at Low to Medium intensity on maize crop in Imphal West, Imphal East, Kangpokpi, Kakching, Thoubal, Churachandpur, Chandel, Noney, Bishnupur districts of Manipur state and Bengaluru rural district of Karnataka state.
• Incidence of Rugose Spirallig Whitefly reported at Low to Medium intensity on Coconut in Mysore and Mandya districts of Karnataka state.
• Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
• No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported from any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6.
Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items
Table: 6.1
Inflation (year on year)
Period / Commodities Weight June-2019 May-2019 June-2018
All Commodities 100 2.02 2.45 5.68
Primary Articles 22.62 6.72 6.16 4.74
(a) Food Articles 15.26 6.98 6.99 1.87
Cereals 2.82 7.93 7.90 2.59
Paddy 1.43 2.92 2.20 3.71
Wheat 1.03 5.38 6.35 5.14
Pulses 0.64 23.06 18.36 -20.23
Gram 0.26 20.48 17.62 -30.11
Arhar 0.13 32.07 23.99 -4.31
Moong 0.07 20.64 15.84 -3.77
Masur 0.05 16.38 11.76 -18.48
Urad 0.09 24.74 18.54 -24.79
Vegetables 1.87 24.76 33.15 8.49
Potato 0.28 -24.27 -23.36 99.64
Onion 0.16 16.63 15.89 21.02
Fruits 1.60 1.87 -3.51 3.73
Milk 4.44 0.91 1.13 2.37
Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 5.64 5.64 -0.07
(b) Non-Food Articles 4.12 5.06 6.23 3.81
Oilseeds 1.12 9.25 7.26 8.80
Fuel & Power 13.15 -2.20 0.98 16.52
7.
All India Crop Situation - Kharif (2019-20) as on 19.07.2019
Table: 7.1
8.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 18.07.2019
Table: 8.1
(lakh tones)
9.
Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 05.07.2019
Table: 9.1
State Target in marketing
season 2018-19 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 18.07.2019
In Marketing season 2018-2019
In Marketing season 2017-2018
Andhra Pradesh 52.54 47.06 39.32
Telangana 45.00 51.86 36.21
Bihar 8.00 9.49 7.93
Chhattisgarh 40.00 40.80 32.07
Haryana 39.75 39.41 39.92
Jharkhand 2.50 1.53 1.43
Kerala 3.70 4.65 3.25
Madhya Pradesh 13.00 13.95 11.00
Maharashtra 5.50 5.72 1.79
Odisha 37.00 43.83 32.80
Punjab 114.00 113.34 118.39
Tamil Nadu 14.80 12.21 8.48
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 32.33 28.75
Uttrakhand 5.00 4.62 0.38
West Bengal 31.00 17.21 0.57
All-India 448.04 439.12 362.81
State Target in marketing
season 2019-20 (April - March)
Progressive Procurement as on 05.07.2019
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Bihar 2.00 0.03 0.15
Haryana 85.00 93.20 87.37
Madhya Pradesh 75.00 67.25 69.67
Punjab 125.00 129.12 126.62
Rajasthan 17.00 14.11 15.32
Uttar Pradesh 50.00 37.00 52.94
Uttrakhand 2.00 0.42 1.10
All-India 357.00 341.33 353.69
Annex-III
Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1(18 to 24 July, 2019) and Week 2 (25 to 31 July, 2019)
Rainfall for week 1: (18 to 24 July, 2019)
• Due to likely strong wind at lower levels over southern parts of West Coast and likely formation of east-west shear zone over south Peninsular India mainly between 3.1 & 4.5 km above mean sea level, active to vigorous monsoon conditions with widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls at isolated places are very likely over Kerala during 18th-21st and over coastal Karnataka during 20th- 22nd July and with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places during remaining days of week 1.
• Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places are also very likely over Lakshadweep, Karnataka, Telengana, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, northeastern states and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during most days of the week 1.
• Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls (during second half of the week) is likely over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the week 1.
• Isolated to scattered rainfall activity likely to occur over rest parts of the country
• Cumulatively, above normal rainfall likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telengana and Karnataka and over many parts of Maharashtra. It is very likely to be normal to below normal over remaining parts of the country during week 1.
Rainfall for week 2: (25 to 31 July, 2019)
➢ During week 2, rainfall activity likely to increase over most parts of the country with normal to above normal rainfall activity outside most parts of Jammu & Kashmir, north Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal.
Source: IMD
