F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 12.02.2020
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP
HELD ON 07.02.2020.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 30th January, 2020 to 5th February, 2020 has been 59% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher by 29% in Central India but lower than LPA by 87% in North West India, by 52% in East & North East India and by 45% in South Peninsula .
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the winter season i.e. 1st January, 2020 to 5th February, 2020, 2020 has been by 43% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 81% in Central India, by 49% in North West India and by 27% in East & North East India but lower than LPA by 21% in South Peninsula.
For winter season 1st January, 2020 to 5th February, 2020 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 17 met sub-divisions constituting 57% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 05 met sub-divisions constituting 12% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, 11 met sub-divisions constituting 27% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall and 03 met sub-divisions constituting 4% of the total area of the country has received no rainfall.
Central Water Commission monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live
capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 6th February, 2020 has been 114.82 BCM as against 73.08 BCM on 06.02.2019 (last year) and 78.42 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 157% of last year’s storage and 146% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
As per final reports on sowing of Rabi crops, around 105% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown upto 31.01.2020. Area sown under all rabi crops taken together has been reported 662.13 lakh hectares at All India level as compared to 604.52 lakh hectares in the corresponding period of last year and 613.91 lakh ha. normal area as on date.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 07.02.2020 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 349.00 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 338.16 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
Buffer stocks of rice & wheat is at comfortable position
1. Winter Season (Jan. – Feb.) during the week ending 05th February, 2020
Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (30th January, 2020 to 5th February, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 04 sub-divisions, normal in 03 sub division, deficient/large deficient in 17 and no rain in 12 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st January, 2020 to 05th February, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 17 met sub-divisions, normal in 05 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 11 sub-divisions and no rain in 03 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st Jan., 2020 to 5th Feb, 2020
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 07st Feb., 2020 to 11th Feb., 2020 is shown in Table 1.4.
Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (05.02.2020) Cumulative (01.01.20 to 05.02.20) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 1.0 7.4 -87 LD 57.4 38.6 49 E
Central India 2.3 1.8 29 E 15.8 8.7 81 LE
South Peninsular India 0.6 1.1 -45 D 7.0 8.9 -21 D
East & North-East India 3.4 7.1 -52 D 29.8 23.5 27 E
Country as a whole 1.7 4.3 -59 D 29.1 20.3 43 E
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st October to 04 FEB
2015
03 FEB 2016
08 FEB 2017
07 FEB 2018
06FEB 2019
05 FEB 2020 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 15 8 23
- 04 02 06
05 06 03 14
01 00 00 01
05 02 07 14
13 04 05 22 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
10 - 03 00 13
09 - 16 05 30
04 12 - 06 22
03 17 - 15 35
04 12 - 06 22
06 05 - 03 14
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 2% (-) 63% 29% (-) 85% (-) 12% 43%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE DISTRIBUTION OF REALISED RAINFALL-2020 S.No
. MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 30 JAN 31 JAN 01 FEB 02 FEB 03 FEB 04 FEB 05 FEB
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS D D D D D D D
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL WS ISOL SCT FWS D ISOL
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL D ISOL
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D SCT ISOL D ISOL D D
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL SCT ISOL D D D D
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL FWS FWS D D D D ISOL
7 ODISHA SCT ISOL D ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT
8 JHARKHAND ISOL ISOL D D D D ISOL
9 BIHAR ISOL ISOL D D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND WS ISOL ISOL SCT D D D
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D D D D D D D
14 PUNJAB ISOL D D D D D D
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH SCT D ISOL ISOL D D D
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR SCT D ISOL D D D D
17 WEST RAJASTHAN D D D D D D D
18 EAST RAJASTHAN D D D D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D ISOL D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL D D D D ISOL SCT
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA D D D D ISOL D D
26 VIDARBHA D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL D D D ISOL ISOL FWS
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
29 TELANGANA D D D ISOL ISOL D D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL D D D D D ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
35 KERALA & MAHE D D D D D ISOL D
36 LAKSHADWEEP D D D SCT D D D
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NO STATION REPORTED RAINFALL
* ACTIVE (R/F 11/2- 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 5 cm. along west coast & 3 cm. elsewhere )
** VIGOROUS (R/F More than 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 8 cm. along west coast & 5 cm. elsewhere)
Table: 1.4
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 30.01.2020)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs decreased to 114.82 BCM from the previous week’s level of 119.43 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 73.08 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 78.42 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 120 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
67 70
157 156
146 144
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 43% on 06/02/2019, 42% on 06/02/2018, 47% on 06/02/2017 and 37% on 06/02/2016.
Source: CWC
There were 117 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 3 reservoirs having storage between 51% to 80%, 01 reservoir having storage between 31% to 50%
and 02 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission 10
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
In BCM
ALL-INDIA RESERVOIR TREND
(WATER STOCK IN 2020 VS 2019 & AVERAGE OF LAST 10 YEARS)
This Year
Last Year
Avg. of Last Ten Years
Week Ending
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2019-20 (As on 06.02.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2019 365 1377 377 1269 140
Requirement for Oct,2019 to March, 2020 17904 5208 1773 5186 2567 Estimated Requirement during Feb, 2020 1943 415 231 741 320
Cumulative Receipt upto 06.02.2020 3718 3626 814 3747 1469
Cumulative Availability upto 06.02.2020 14083 5003 1191 5016 1610
Cumulative Sales upto 06.02.2020 13547 3328 848 3707 1458
Closing Stock as on 06.02.2020 536 1675 343 1309 151
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
Fall Army Worm reported at low to moderate intensity in 30 hectare surveyed area on Rabi Maize in Munger district of Bihar.
Late blight reported at trace to moderate intensity in 90 hectare surveyed area on Potato crop in Agra, Mathura and Firozabad districts of Uttar Pradesh.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6
. All India Crop Situations - Rabi (2019-20) as on 31.01.2020
Table: 6.17.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 07.02.2020
Table: 7.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in
marketing season 2019-20 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 31.01.2020
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 40.00 24.48 23.87
Telangana 30.00 31.57 26.98
Chhattisgarh 48.00 47.74 39.64
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42
Kerala 2.50 1.23 0.69
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 15.35 12.75
Maharashtra 6.00 4.06 2.76
Odisha 34.00 26.57 27.04
Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34
Tamil Nadu 8.00 2.27 3.51
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 34.21 29.64
Uttrakhand 5.00 6.22 4.56
West Bengal 23.00 0.02 11.05
All-India 416.00 349.00 338.16
Annexure-I Rainfall for next two Weeks
Weather systems and associated Precipitation & temperature pattern during week 1 (06th – 13th February 2020) and week 2 (13th – 20th February 2020)
Rainfall for week 1: (06th – 13th February, 2020)
Under the influence of current Western Disturbance light isolated rain/snow very likely to occur over Western Himalayan region during next two days, Thereafter under the influence of a fresh Western Disturbance light/moderate isolated to scattered rain/fall very likely to occur over Western Himalayan region during 11th to 13th February, 2020.
Due to confluence between westerlies and easterly winds from Bay of Bengal at lower tropospheric levels, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/thundershowers over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh. Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha during next 3 days.
Cumulative precipitation is likely to be below normal over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya. It is likely to be above normal over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh. No rain likely over remaining parts of the country.
Rainfall for week 2: (13th – 20th February, 2020)
Cumulative precipitation is likely to be below normal over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya. No rain likely over remaining parts of the country.
Minimum Temperatures for week 1: (06th – 13th February, 2020)
During week 1, night minimum temperatures are likely to be below normal over major parts of India, outside interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, where they are likely to be markedly above normal during some of the days.
Minimum Temperatures for week 2: (13th – 20th February 2020)
During week 2, it is likely to be below normal over most parts of the country outside some parts of west coast
