F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443 Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 21.04.2020 SUBJECT: WEEKLY STATUS REPORT ON CROP PROSPECTS AS ON 17.04.2020
Summary
• The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 09th April – 15th April, 2020 has been 41% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 20% in Central India but lower than LPA by 69% in North West India, by 48% in East & North East India and by 3% in South Peninsula.
• The cumulative rainfall in the country during the Pre-Monsoon season i.e. 1st March, 2020 to 15th April, 2020 has been 16% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 150%
in Central India, by 46% in North West India and by 3% in South Peninsula but lower than LPA by 43% in East & North East India.
• For Pre-Monsoon season 1st March, 2020 to 15th April, 2020 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 23 met sub-divisions constituting 71% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 05 met sub-divisions constituting 13% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, and 08 met sub-divisions constituting 16% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall.
• Central Water Commission monitors 123 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 99 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 126.45 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 16th April, 2020 has been 76.71 BCM as against 47.11 BCM on 16.04.2019 (last year) and 48.37 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 163% of last year’s storage and 159% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
• As per 2nd Advance Estimates 2019-20, total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 625.23 lakh hectares as compared to 595.33 lakh hectares during 2018-19 (Final Estimates). This year’s area coverage so far is higher by 29.9 lakh ha. than the area coverage during the last year.
• The All Commodities inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of March, 2020 decreased to 1.00% from the level of 2.26% in the month of February, 2020. The inflation rate was 3.10% during the corresponding period of last year.
• The Primary Articles inflation rate for the month of March, 2020 decreased to 3.72% from the level of 6.71% in the month of February, 2020. The inflation rate was 4.91% during the corresponding period of last year.
• The inflation for food items has decreased to 4.91% from the previous month level of 7.79% and for non-food items has decreased to 1.94% from the previous month’s level of 6.82%.
• Among the foodgrains, inflation as per wholesale price index of Pulses has increased to 12.12%
from the previous month’s level of 11.42%. The inflation for Paddy has decreased to 1.72% from the previous month’s level of 3.71%, Wheat to 4.76% from the previous month’s level of 6.42 and Cereals to 2.67% from the previous month’s level of 5.21%.
• The inflation for milk has increased to 5.38% from the previous month’s level of 4.48% and Eggs, Meat & Fish has decreased to 4.19% from the previous month’s level of 6.88%.
• All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 17.04.2020 for Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2019-20 is 410.41 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 383.82 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
• All-India progressive procurement of Wheat as on 17.04.2020 for Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2020-21 is 0.60 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 25.88 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
Pre-Monsoon Season (March – May) during the week ending 17
thApril, 2020
➢ Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
• Rainfall during the week 09th April to 15th April, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 07 met sub-divisions, normal in 05 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 18 sub-divisions and no rain in 06 met sub-division out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
• Cumulative rainfall (01st March, 2020 to 15th April, 2020) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 23 met sub-divisions, normal in 05 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 08 sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All- India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 01st March, 2020 to 15th April, 2020
Source: IMD
➢ Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 17th April, 2020 to 21st April, 2020 is shown in Table 1.4.
➢ Forecast for next two weeks at Annex-I
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (15.04.20) Cumulative (01.03.20 to 15.04.20) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 2.5 7.9 -69 LD 92.5 63.3 46 E
Central India 2.0 1.7 20 E 31.0 12.4 150 LE
South Peninsular India 7.0 7.2 -3 N 29.1 28.3 3 N
East & North-East India 12.7 24.3 -48 D 66.3 116.4 -43 D
Country as a whole 4.8 8.2 -41 D 55.2 47.7 16 N
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st March to 15 APR
2015
13 APR 2016
12 APR 2017
18 APR 2018
17 APR 2019
15 APR 2020 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 30 04 34
- 09 10 19
05 05 10 20
06 07 07 20
05 02 06 13
17 06 05 28 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
02 - 00 00 02
09 - 08 00 17
07 07 - 02 16
12 04 - 00 16
15 08 - 00 23
03 05 - 00 08
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation 102% (-) 4% 11% (-) 21% (-) 33% 16%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2020 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 16 APR 17 APR 18 APR 19 APR 20 APR 21 APR 22 APR
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL D ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWSTS FWSTS WS●TS # WS●TS FWSTS WS●TS FWSTS 3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS●$ # WSTS WS● WS●$ FWSTS WS●TS WSTS 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS$ # FWSTS FWS$ FWS●$ FWSTS WSTS WSTS 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM FWSTS FWSTS WS$ FWSTS FWSTS WS$ FWSTS
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCTTS ISOL$ SCT$ ISOLTS FWS$ FWS$ ISOLTS
7 ODISHA ISOLTS ISOL$ ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOL
8 JHARKHAND ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOL
9 BIHAR ISOLTS ISOLTS SCT ISOL SCT$ SCT$ ISOLTS
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D D D ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOL D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL
12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL FWSTS # SCTTS # SCT SCT ISOLTS ISOL
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D ISOLTS SCT TS ISOL ISOL D ISOL
14 PUNJAB D SCT TS SCT TS ISOL ISOL D ISOL
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL WS TS FWS TS SCT TS SCT TS ISOLTS ISOLTS 16 JAMMU & KASHMIR ISOL WS TS FWS TS SCT TS SCT TS ISOL ISOLTS
17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL ISOLDS/TS ISOL ISOLDS/TS ISOL ISOL ISOL
18 EAST RAJASTSAN D ISOLDS/TS ISOL ISOLDS/TS ISOL D ISOL
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D ISOL ISOL ISOLTS ISOLTS D ISOL
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOLTS ISOL ISOLTS ISOLTS D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOLTS ISOL D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS # ISOLTS # ISOLTS D
25 MARATHAWADA ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS # ISOLTS D
26 VIDARBHA ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOLTS # ISOLTS # ISOLTS ISOL
27 CHHATTISGARH ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS # ISOLTS # ISOLTS ISOL 28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL ISOL●TS # ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOL ISOL
29 TELANGANA ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS # ISOLTS # SCTTS # ISOLTS ISOL
30 RAYALASEEMA D D D ISOL ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOL
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOLTS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOL 32 COASTAL KARNATAKA ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS SCTTS SCTTS ISOL 33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS SCTTS # ISOLTS ISOL 34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS SCT SCTTS ISOLTS 35 KERALA & MAHE ISOLTS ISOLTS ISOLTS SCTTS SCTTS SCTTS SCTTS
36 LAKSHADWEEP D D D D ISOL SCT SCTTS
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL #HAILSTORM - COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) -- SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
$TSUNDERSTORM WITS SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TSDUST/TSUNDERSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
Table: 1.4
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 16.04.2020)
• The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 123 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 171.09 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 66.36% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
• Live Storage in 123 major reservoirs decreased to 76.71 BCM from the previous week’s level of 80.31 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 47.11 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 48.37 BCM.
Table – 2.1: For 123 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
45 47
163 163
159 157
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 28% on 16/04/2019, 25% on 16/04/2018, 31% on 16/04/2017 and 24% on 16/04/2016.
Source: CWC
• There were 114 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 01 reservoir having storage between 51% to 80%, 03 reservoirs having storage between 31% to 50%
and 05 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage out of which 03 reservoir having no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Kharif 2020 (As on 16.04.2020)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.4.2020 613 799 232 1084 130
Requirement for April,2020 to Sept, 2020 16688 5161 2022 5295 2642 Estimated Requirement during April, 2020 2028 652 211 522 331
Cumulative Receipt upto 16.04.2020 789 122 25 101 64
Cumulative Availability upto 16.04.2020 1402 921 257 1185 194
Cumulative Sales upto 16.04.2020 584 151 23 117 66
Closing Stock as on 16.04.2020 818 770 234 1068 128
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
• Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
5. Seeds Position:
• Seed position as reported by states is comfortable in context to production of seeds required for the upcoming season.
6.
Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items
Table: 6
Inflation (year on year)
Period / Commodities Weight Mar-2020 Feb-2020 Mar-2019
All Commodities 100 1.00 2.26 3.10
Primary Articles 22.62 3.72 6.71 4.91
(a) Food Articles 15.26 4.91 7.79 5.24
Cereals 2.82 2.67 5.21 8.92
Paddy 1.43 1.72 3.71 2.62
Wheat 1.03 4.76 6.42 10.13
Pulses 0.64 12.12 11.42 10.63
Gram 0.26 -2.12 -3.07 8.60
Arhar 0.13 13.75 14.37 13.55
Moong 0.07 27.15 22.15 12.01
Masur 0.05 12.22 13.59 7.88
Urad 0.09 44.72 44.26 8.92
Vegetables 1.87 11.90 29.97 24.05
Potato 0.28 61.81 60.73 2.53
Onion 0.16 112.31 162.30 -31.34
Fruits 1.60 -0.43 1.00 -7.69
Milk 4.44 5.38 4.48 1.78
Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 4.19 6.88 5.86
(b) Non-Food Articles 4.12 1.94 6.82 3.00
Oilseeds 1.12 3.02 4.63 4.90
Fuel & Power 13.15 -1.76 3.38 4.59
7. All India Crop Situations – 2
ndAdv. Est.(2019-20) vis-à-vis Final Est. (2018-19)
Table: 7
8.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 17.04.2020
Table: 8
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in
marketing season 2019-20 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 17.04.2020
In Marketing season 2019-2020
In Marketing season 2018-2019
Andhra Pradesh 40.00 32.61 30.35
Telangana 30.00 33.74 28.04
Bihar 12.00 11.57 9.49
Chhattisgarh 48.00 39.71 40.20
Haryana 40.00 43.03 39.42
Kerala 2.50 2.77 3.33
Madhya Pradesh 14.00 17.40 14.62
Maharashtra 6.00 8.06 4.25
Odisha 34.00 35.72 34.49
Punjab 114.00 108.76 113.34
Tamil Nadu 8.00 14.30 11.20
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 37.90 32.33
Uttrakhand 5.00 6.81 4.62
West Bengal 23.00 14.90 15.91
All-India 416.00 410.41 383.82
Annexure I Rainfall for next two Weeks
Weather systems and associated Precipitation & temperature pattern during week 1 (16th April to 22nd April, 2020) and Week 2 (23rd April to 29th April, 2020)
Week 1: (16th April to 22nd April, 2020)
• A fresh Western Disturbance is very likely to affect Western Himalayan Region (Jammu
& Kashmir, Ladakh, GilgitBaltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) and adjoining northern plains mainly on 17th & 18th April. It is very likely to cause scattered to Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers over Western Himalayan Region and isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers over northern plains (Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, north Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh) on 17th & 18th April. This could also result in isolated thunderstorms/hailstorms and gusty winds over these areas during the same period.
• Due to the convergence of strong moist winds from the Bay of Bengal, Northeast India (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura) and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim are very likely to experience fairly widespread to widespread rainfall during next 7 days with varying intensity. Adjoining parts of eastern states (Bihar and West Bengal) are also likely to experience similar weather on a few days during this period. Isolated heavy rainfall, thundersqualls & hailstorms are also very likely over these regions during the same period.
• Cumulatively Rainfall for the week, near normal rainfall very likely over Western Himalayan Region, adj plains of north India, parts of eastern India and Adj northeastern states and across southern parts of peninsular India and Nicobar Islands during week 1.
Rainfall for week 2: (23rd April to 29th April, 2020)
• Another fresh and very active Western Disturbance is likely to affect Western Himalayan Region (Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, GilgitBaltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) and adjoining northern plains from 23rd April till 25th April, and this may cause scattered to fairly widespread rainfall in these areas during this period with peak on 24th and 25th April 2020. This may also cause isolated heavy rainfall over Western Himalayan Region. Northeastern and eastern parts of India are likely to experience scattered to fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms during the 1st half of the week.
• Cumulatively rainfall during week, normal to above normal rainfall likely across Western Himalayan Region and adjoining plains of north India, Kerala, and eastern parts and Northeastern States with mainly dry weather likely over rest parts of the country.
Maximum Temperature for week 1 & 2: (16th April to 29th April, 2020)
• During week 1, Maximum temperatures are likely to be below normal by 1-3 deg C over most parts of India except Odisha, Gujarat and adj Madhya Pradesh, west coast of India where, it is very likely above normal by 1-3degC.
• During week 2 , maximum temperatures likely continue to further increase by 1-2°C over Odisha, west coast of India with near normal values over most parts of India.
