F. No. 3-1/ 2018-19-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 344-A Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 24.12.2018
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 21.12.2018.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
In the post monsoon season, at All-India level, the rainfall during the week i.e. 13th December, 2018 – 19th December, 2018 has been 220% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher by 1023% in Central India, 395% in East & North East India, 103% in South Peninsula but lower than LPA by 1% in North West India.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the post monsoon season i.e. 01st October, 2018 to 19th December, 2018 has been 42% lower than LPA. Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been lower than LPA by 51% in Central India, 50% in East & North East India, 36% in South Peninsula and 32% in North West India.
For post monsoon season 01.10.2018 to 19.12.2018 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 3 met sub-division constituting 12% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 2 met sub-divisions constituting 1% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, 31 met subdivisions constituting 87% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall.
Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 161.99 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 76 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 120.44 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs as on 20th December, 2018 has been 88.94 BCM as against 91.19 BCM on 20.12.2017 (last year) and 95.65 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 98% of last year’s storage and nearly 93% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
The All Commodities inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of November, 2018, deceased to 4.64% from the level of 5.28% in the month of October, 2018. The inflation rate was 4.02% during the corresponding period of last year.
The Primary Articles inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of November, 2018, decreased to 0.88% from the level of 1.79% in the month of October, 2018. The inflation rate was 5.59% during the corresponding period of last year.
The wholesale price index for non-food items increased to 6.40% from the previous month’s level of 4.14% and for the food items stood at (-) 3.31% from the previous month’s level of (-) 1.49%.
Among the foodgrains, inflation as per wholesale price index of Wheat decreased to 9.18% from the previous month’s level of 9.49% and pulses increased to (-) 5.42% from the previous month’s level of (-) 13.92%. The inflation for Cereals increased to 7.23% from the previous month’s level of 6.24% and for Paddy increased to 4.29% from the previous month’s level of 4.08%.
As per latest information available on sowing of Rabi crops, around 81.4% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown upto 21.12.2018. Area sown under all rabi crops taken together has been reported 512.53 lakh hectares at All India level as compared to 537.12 lakh hectares in the corresponding period of last year and 540.34 lakh ha. normal area as on date.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 21.12.2018 for 2018-19 was at 225.61 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 222.56 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year. The procurement of wheat for the Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2018-19 was 357.95 lakh tonnes which was higher than the procurement of 308.24 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of RMS 2017-18.
1. Post Monsoon Season (October – December) during the week ending 19th Dec., 2018
Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
Rainfall during the week (13th December, 2018 to 19th December, 2018) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 17 met sub-divisions, normal in 2 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 11 sub-divisions and no rain in 6 met sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Cumulative rainfall (01st October, 2018 to 19th December, 2018) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 3 met sub-division, normal in 2 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 31 sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st October, 2018 to 19th Dec., 2018.
Source: IMD
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 21st Dec., 2018 to 25th Dec., 2018 is shown in Table 1.4
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (19.12.2018) Cumulative (01.10.18 to 19.12.18) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 4.2 4.2 -1 N 34.8 51.2 -32 D
Central India 12.4 1.1 1023 LE 38.6 78.1 -51 D
South Peninsular India 12.8 6.3 103 LE 170.4 266.6 -36 D East & North-East India 18.3 3.7 395 LE 82.5 166.1 -50 D
Country as a whole 10.9 3.4 220 LE 70.3 121.1 -42 D
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st October to 18 DEC
2013
17 DEC 2014
16 DEC 2015
21 DEC 2016
20 DEC 2017
19 DEC 2018 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 18 04 22
- 02 11 13
- 06 04 10
03 02 06 11
01 06 14 21
00 03 02 05 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
14 - 00 00 14
12 - 11 00 23
08 - 18 00 26
12 13 - 00 25
06 09 - 00 15
13 18 - 00 31
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation 21% (-) 30% (-) 20% (-) 43% (-) 8% (-) 42%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2018 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 20 DEC 21 DEC 22 DEC 23 DEC 24 DEC 25 DEC 26 DEC
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWS SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D D D D D D D
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA ISOL D D D D D D
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM D D D D D D D
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D D D D D D
7 ODISHA D D D D D D D
8 JHARKHAND D D D D D D D
9 BIHAR D D D D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND D D D D D D D
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D D D D D D D
14 PUNJAB D D D D D D D
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D D D D D D D
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR D D D D D D D
17 WEST RAJASTHAN D D D D D D D
18 EAST RAJASTHAN D D D D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D ISOL
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA D D D D D D D
27 CHHATTISGARH D D D D D D D
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH D D ISOL ISOL D D D
29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D ISOL ISOL D D D
31 TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY ISOL ISOL● SCT● SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA ISOL D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA D D ISOL SCT ISOL D D
35 KERALA ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL
36 LAKSHADWEEP ISOL D D ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
$ THUNDERSTORM WITH SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TS DUST/THUNDERSTORM -COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) --SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
Table: 1.4
Source: IMD
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 20.12.2018)
The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 91 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 161.99 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 91 major reservoirs decreased to 88.94 BCM from the previous week’s level of 92.39 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than the last year’s storage position of 91.19 BCM and lower than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 95.65 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 91 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as %
of FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
55 57
98 98
93 94
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 56% on 20/12/2017, 59% on 20/12/2016, 49% on 17/12/2015 and 61% on 18/12/2014.
Source: CWC
There were 58 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 20 reservoirs having storage between 51% to 80%, 9 reservoirs having storage between 31% to 50% and 4 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2018-19 (As on 20.12.2018)
(in ‘000 tonnes)
Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2018 468 580 46 670 133
Requirement for Rabi 2018-19 15114 4922 1655 4794 2780
Cumulative Requirement during October to December 2018
9395 3724 1060 2841 1701
Cumulative Receipt upto 20.12.2018 6574 2781 764 2345 938
Cumulative Availability upto 20.12.2018 7042 3361 810 3015 1071
Cumulative Sales upto 20.12.2018 6480 2495 544 1846 920
Closing Stock as on 20.12.2018 562 866 266 1169 151
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
Incidence of Fall Army Worm on Maize and Jowar reported above ETL in Sholapur and Buldhana districts of Maharashtra state and on Maize reported in 10 districts of Tamilnadu state by State Agriculture Department on video conference.
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported from any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6.
All India Crop Situation – Rabi (2018-19) as on 21.12.2018
Table: 6.1
7.
Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items
Table: 7.1
Inflation (year on year)
Period / Commodities Weight Nov-2018 Oct-2018 Nov-2017
All Commodities 100 4.64 5.28 4.02
Primary Articles 22.62 0.88 1.79 5.59
(a) Food Articles 15.26 -3.31 -1.49 6.41
Cereals 2.82 7.23 6.24 -2.13
Paddy 1.43 4.29 4.08 2.90
Wheat 1.03 9.18 9.49 -5.75
Pulses 0.64 -5.42 -13.92 -35.52
Gram 0.26 -14.67 -23.72 -40.84
Arhar 0.13 2.15 -3.87 -37.62
Moong 0.07 10.75 5.92 -13.81
Masur 0.05 -7.41 -9.04 -25.96
Urad 0.09 -4.12 -13.16 -34.34
Vegetables 1.87 -26.98 -18.65 59.87
Potato 0.28 86.45 93.65 -40.73
Onion 0.16 -47.60 -31.69 178.19
Fruits 1.60 -2.49 0.93 6.48
Milk 4.44 2.78 2.78 4.08
Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 0.00 -0.59 4.73
(b) Non-Food Articles 4.12 6.40 4.14 -0.51
Oilseeds 1.12 10.70 7.50 -0.70
Fuel & Power 13.15 16.28 18.44 8.36
8.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 21.12.2018
Table: 7.1
(lakh tonnes)
*- All India total includes all States.
State Target in marketing
season 2018-19 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 21.12.2018
In Marketing season 2018-2019
In Marketing season 2017-2018
Andhra Pradesh 30.00 8.91 8.34
Telangana 15.00 21.70 10.77
Bihar 8.00 0.02 0.16
Chhattisgarh 40.00 18.91 17.69
Haryana 39.75 39.09 39.67
Jharkhand 2.50 0.04 0.02
Kerala 2.00 0.57 0.89
Madhya Pradesh 13.00 1.17 4.93
Maharashtra 4.00 1.21 0.69
Odisha 30.00 4.92 5.69
Punjab 114.00 113.30 118.33
Tamil Nadu 8.00 1.31 -
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 10.55 14.82
Uttrakhand 5.00 3.42 0.31
West Bengal 23.00 0.20 0.01
All-India* 370.00 225.61 222.56
