F. No. 3-1/ 2019-20-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 344-A Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 11.06.2019
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 07.06.2019.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
• The All-India level rainfall during the week i.e. 30th May, 2019 – 05th June, 2019 has been 40%
lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been lower than LPA by 52% in Central India, by 49% in East & North East India, by 27% in North West India and by 23% in South Peninsula.
• The cumulative rainfall in the country during the pre monsoon season i.e. 01st March, 2019 to 31st May, 2019 has been 25% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been lower than LPA by 47% in South Peninsula, 30% in North West India, 18% in Central India and 14% in East & North East India.
• For pre monsoon season 01.03.2019 to 31.05.2019 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 4 met sub-divisions constituting 15% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 9 met sub-divisions constituting 28% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall and 23 met sub-divisions constituting 57% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall.
• Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 161.99 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 76 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 120.44 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs as on 06th June, 2019 has been 30.46 BCM as against 26.69 BCM on 06.06.2018 (last year) and 29.54 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 114% of last year’s storage and nearly 103% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
• All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 06.06.2019 for 2018-19 was at 422.99 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 354.81 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year. The procurement of wheat for the Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2019-20 was 337.65 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 346.09 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of RMS 2018-19.
1. Pre Monsoon Season (March – May) during the week ending 05th June, 2019
➢ Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
• Rainfall during the week (30th May, 2019 to 05th June, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 4 met sub-divisions, normal in 6 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 24 sub-divisions and no rain in 2 met sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
• Cumulative rainfall (01st March, 2019 to 31st May, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 4 met sub-divisions, normal in 9 met sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 23 sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st March, 2019 to 31st May, 2019
Source: IMD
➢ Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 07th June, 2019 to 11th June, 2019 is shown in Table 1.4
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (05.06.2019) Cumulative (01.03.19 to 31.05.19) (in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi- ation
(%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 5.8 8.0 -27 D 78.1 111.6 -30 D
Central India 5.7 11.8 -52 D 32.7 40.0 -18 N
South Peninsular India 19.1 24.7 -23 D 65.8 123.7 -47 D East & North-East India 28.5 55.6 -49 D 320.4 372.3 -14 N
Country as a whole 12.0 20.1 -40 D 99.0 131.5 -25 D
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st March to 31 MAY
2014
31 MAY 2015
31 MAY 2016
31 MAY 2017
31 MAY 2018
31 MAY 2019 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 15 12 27
- 26 08 34
- 08 16 24
02 03 13 18
03 06 10 19
01 03 09 13 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
07 - 02 00 09
02 - 00 00 02
09 - 03 00 12
15 03 - 00 18
12 05 - 00 17
13 10 - 00 23
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 1 38% (-) 3% (-) 2% (-) 11% (-) 25%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2019 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 06 JUN 07 JUN 08 JUN 09 JUN 10 JUN 11 JUN 12 JUN
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH SCT FWS FWS FWS● FWS FWS FWS
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS● FWS● TS WS TS WS● WS● WS● WS●
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS●TS FWS●● TS WS●● WS● WS WS● WS● 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM FWS TS FWS TS FWS TS FWS TS FWS TS WS TS FWS TS 6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT● TS SCT● TS SCT TS SCT TS SCT ISOL TS SCT●
7 ODISHA SCT TS SCT TS FWS● TS SCT TS ISOL ISOL ISOL TS
8 JHARKHAND ISOL TS ISOL TS SCT TS ISOL ISOL ISOL TS ISOL TS
9 BIHAR ISOL ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL SCT SCT
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH DRY++ DRY++ DRY++ DRY++ ISOL++ ISOL ISOL 11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL++ TSDS DRY++ DRY++ DRY++ DRY++ ISOL TSDS DRY
12 UTTARAKHAND SCT $# ISOL DRY DRY ISOL ISOL TS ISOL TS
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL+ TSDS DRY+ DRY++ DRY+ DRY+ DRY ISOL TSDS 14 PUNJAB ISOL+ TSDS DRY+ DRY++ DRY+ DRY+ ISOL TSDS ISOL TSDS
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH FWS TS ISOL ISOL DRY ISOL SCT TS SCT TS
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR FWS TS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS TS WS TS
17 WEST RAJASTHAN DRY++ DRY++ DRY++ DRY++ ISOL++ DRY DRY 18 EAST RAJASTHAN ISOL++ TSDS DRY++ DRY++ DRY++ ISOL+ DRY ISOL TSDS 19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH DRY++ DRY++ DRY++ DRY+ DRY+ DRY ISOL 20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH DRY++ DRY++ DRY++ DRY+ DRY+ ISOL ISOL
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL● ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL TS
25 MARATHAWADA ISOL+ TS ISOL+ ISOL++ ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL TS
26 VIDARBHA ISOL++ TS ISOL++ TS ISOL++ TS DRY++ DRY++ ISOL TS ISOL TS 27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL+ TS ISOL+ TS ISOL++ TS ISOL+ TS ISOL TS ISOL ISOL
28 COASTAL A. PR. & YANAM ISOL TS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
29 TELANGANA ISOL+ TS ISOL+ TS ISOL++ ISOL+ ISOL+ ISOL ISOL
30 RAYALASEEMA SCT TS ISOL TS SCT● TS SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL● TS ISOL TS ISOL● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA FWS● SCT FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS● TS SCT TS ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA FWS● TS FWSTS FWS●● FWS● FWS SCT SCT
35 KERALA & MAHE WS● TS WS● TS WS●● TS WS●● WS● WS● FWS●
36 LAKSHADWEEP WSTS WSTS WS● WS● WS●● WS●● FWS
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM +HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
$THUNDERSTORM WITH SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TS DUST/THUNDERSTORM -COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) --SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
Table: 1.4
Source: IMD
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 06.06.2019)
• The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 91 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 161.99 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
• Live Storage in 91 major reservoirs decreased to 30.46 BCM from the previous week’s level of 31.65 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 26.69 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 29.54 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 91 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
19 20
114 114
103 103
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 16% on 06/06/2018, 20% on 06/06/2017, 17% on 26/05/2016 and 27% on 28/05/2015.
Source: CWC
There were 43 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 20 reservoirs having storage between 51% to 80%, 7 reservoirs having storage between 31% to 50% and 21 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage out of these 8 reservoirs having no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Kharif 2018-19 (As on 31.05.2019)
(in ‘000 tonnes)
Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2019 613 833 265 1281 128
Requirement for Kharif 2019 15672 5121 2038 5296 2505
Estimated Requirement during May 2019 2300 802 281 650 356
Cumulative Receipt upto 31.05.2019 4210 1869 455 1322 586
Cumulative Availability upto 31.05.2019 4823 2702 720 2603 714
Cumulative Sales upto 31.05.2019 3738 1122 321 870 507
Closing Stock as on 31.05.2019 1085 1580 399 1733 207
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
• Incidence of Fall army worm reported at low to moderate intensity on maize crop in ImphalWest/ImphalEast/Thoubal/Bishnupur/Kangpokpi districts of Manipur state, Dimapur district of Nagaland state.
• Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
• No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported from any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 06.06.2019
Table: 6.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in marketing
season 2018-19 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 06.06.2019
In Marketing season 2018-2019
In Marketing season 2017-2018
Andhra Pradesh 52.54 40.96 37.25
Telangana 45.00 51.12 35.42
Bihar 8.00 9.28 7.93
Chhattisgarh 40.00 40.80 32.07
Haryana 39.75 39.41 39.92
Jharkhand 2.50 1.53 1.43
Kerala 3.70 4.60 3.21
Madhya Pradesh 13.00 13.95 11.00
Maharashtra 5.50 4.55 1.67
Odisha 37.00 36.59 28.65
Punjab 114.00 113.34 118.39
Tamil Nadu 14.80 11.69 7.76
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 32.33 28.75
Uttrakhand 5.00 4.62 0.38
West Bengal 31.00 17.12 0.46
All-India 448.04 422.99 354.81
