F. No. 3-1/ 2017-18-CFCC-E&S

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F. No. 3-1/ 2017-18-CFCC-E&S GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 344-A, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 16.04.2018

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 13.04.2018.

Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items

 In the pre monsoon season, at All-India level, the rainfall during the week (05^th April, 2018 – 11^th April, 2018) has been 52% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 176% in Central India, 131% in North West India, 28% in South Peninsula but lower than LPA by 12% in East & North East India.

 The cumulative rainfall in the country during the pre monsoon season i.e. 01^st March to 11^th April, 2018 has been 31% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 55%

in South Peninsula but lower than LPA by 42% in North West India, 38% in East & North East India and 33% in Central India.

 Out of 36 met sub-divisions, 09 met subdivision constituting 16% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 06 met sub-divisions constituting 15% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, 19 met subdivisions constituting 63% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall and 02 met sub-divisions constituting 06% of the total area of the country has received no rain.

 Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 161.99 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 76 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 120.44 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs as on 12^th April, 2018 has been 40.86 BCM as against 48.44 BCM on 12.04.2017 (last year) and 45.53 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 84% of last year’s storage and also 90% of average of last 10 year’s storage.

 As per 2^nd advance estimates 2017-18 of Rabi crops, around 99% of the normal area was sown.

Area sown under all Rabi crops taken together has been reported at 619.45 lakh hectares (2^nd advance estimates) at All India level as compared to 635.33 lakh hectares in the final estimates of 2016-17.

 All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 13.04.2018 for 2017-18 was at 315.99 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 327.03 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year. The procurement of wheat for the rabi marketing season (RMS) 2018-19 was 38.73 lakh tonnes which was lower than the procurement of 49.85 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of RMS 2017-18.

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Pre Monsoon Season (March – May) during the week ending 11^th April, 2018

 Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1

 Rainfall during the week (05^th March, 2018 to 11^th April, 2018) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 23 met sub-divisions, normal in 02 met sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 09 subdivisions and no rain in 02 met subdivisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.

 Cumulative rainfall (01^st March, 2018 to 11^th April, 2018) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 09, normal in 06 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 19 sub-divisions and no rain in 02 subdivisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.

Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country¹

L E

: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1^st March, to 11^th April, 2018

Source: IMD

 Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 13^th April to 17^th April, 2018 is shown in Table 1.4

1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.

South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.

East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Region Week Ending (11.04.2018) Cumulative (01.03.18 to 11.04.18) (in mm) Devi-

ation (%)

Cat. (in mm) Devi-

ation (%)

Cate- gory

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West India 16.6 7.2 131 LE 34.7 59.5 -42 D

Central India 5.5 2.0 176 LE 8.7 13.0 -33 D

South Peninsular India 7.5 5.9 28 E 31.6 20.4 55 E

East & North-East India 20.3 23.0 -12 N 63.7 103.4 -38 D

Country as a whole 11.7 7.7 52 E 29.9 43.3 -31 D

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1^st March to 10 APR

2013

09 APR 2014

08 APR 2015

13 APR 2016

12 APR 2017

11 APR 2018 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 05 05 10

- 15 06 21

- 27 04 31

- 09 10 19

05 05 10 20

08 01 06 15 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

07 - 16 03 26

09 - 06 00 15

02 - 03 00 05

09 - 08 00 17

07 07 - 02 16

13 06 - 02 21

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 54% 5% 103% (-) 4% 11% (-) 31%

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Table: 1.1

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2018 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 12

APR

13 APR

14 APR

15 APR

16 APR

17 APR

18 APR

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL D D ISOL ISOL ISOL

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS^● WS^● FWS SCT FWS SCT SCT

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS^●^{TS $ #} WS^●^{TS $ #} SCT^{TS $} SCT SCT FWS WS 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS^{TS $} FWS^{TS $} FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM FWS^{TS $} SCT^{TS $} SCT SCT FWS SCT SCT 6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT^TS ISOL^{TS $} ISOL ISOL ISOL D ISOL

7 ODISHA SCT^{TS $} ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL D ISOL

8 JHARKHAND SCT^{TS $} ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL D ISOL

9 BIHAR ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL D D D ISOL

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL^TS D D D D D ISOL

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH SCT^TS D D D D D ISOL

12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL D D D ISOL ISOL SCT

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL

14 PUNJAB D D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL D D ISOL SCT^{TS $} FWS FWS

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR ISOL D D ISOL FWS^{TS $} WS FWS

17 WEST RAJASTHAN D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL D

18 EAST RAJASTHAN ISOL^TS D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL D ISOL ISOL D D ISOL

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D D ISOL

21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. ISOL D D D D D D

22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU ISOL D D D D D D

23 KONKAN & GOA D D D ISOL ISOL D D

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL D D ISOL ISOL D D

25 MARATHAWADA D D D D ISOL D D

26 VIDARBHA ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D D

27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL D

29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D D

30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D D

31 TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL ISOL D ISOL 32 COASTAL KARNATAKA ISOL^TS SCT^TS SCT^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL^TS ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL 34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA SCT^TS SCT^TS FWS^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

35 KERALA SCT^TS SCT^TS FWS^TS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

LEGENDS:

WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%) SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

 FOG * SNOWFALL ^# HAILSTORM ⁺ HEAT WAVE (+4.5^OC to +6.4^OC) ⁺⁺ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)

$ THUNDER SQUALL ^DS/TS DUST/THUNDERSTORM ^-COLD WAVE (-4.5^OC to -6.4^OC) ^--SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)

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Table: 1.4

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2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 12.04.2018)

 The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 91 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 161.99 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Water stock in 91 major reservoirs decreased to 40.86 BCM from the previous week’s level of 42.99 BCM. Current storage is lower than the last year’s position of 48.44 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage of 45.53 BCM.

Table – 2.1 : For 91 major reservoirs of the country Period Storage as %

of FRL

Storage as % of last year

Storage as % of 10 year’s average level

Current Week Last Week

25 27

84 85

90 90

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 30% on 12/04/2017, 23% on 12/04/2016, 33% on 09/04/2015 and 38% on 09/04/2014.

Source: CWC

There were 52 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 21 reservoirs having storage between 50% to 80%, 10 reservoir having storage between 30% to 50%, 08 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage and 04 reservoir having no live storage.

Source: Central Water Commission

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3. Fertilizer Position:

Table – 3.1: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Kharif 2018 (As on 12.04.2018)

(in ‘000 Tonnes)

Availability / Sale / Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP Opening Stock as on 01.04.2018 1011 201 89 736 161 Requirement for Kharif, 2018 14890 4918 2025 4973 2625

Requirement for April, 2018 1715 597 214 511 302

Availability upto 12.04.2018 1716 303 116 857 222

Sales upto 12.04.2018 324 21 16 27 45

Closing Stock upto 12.04.2018 1392 282 100 830 288

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer

4. Pest & Diseases:

 Incidence of Mango Hopper was observed in about 25 hectares in patches at Low to Moderate level in Garuana and Miriya villages in Laxmanpur and Kunda block of Pratapgarh district in Uttar Pradesh.

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).

 No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported from any State / UT.

5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.

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6.

All India Crop Situation

Table: 6.1

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7.

Progressive procurement of Rice as on 13.04.2018

Table: 7.1

(lakh tonnes)

8

. Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 13.04.2018

Table: 8.1

(lakh tonnes)

State Target (only kharif

crop) in marketing season 2017-18

(Oct. – Sept.)

Progressive Procurement as on 13.04.2018

In Marketing season 2017-

2018

2017

Andhra Pradesh 43.00 28.27 25.92

Telangana 34.00 12.45 11.14

Bihar 12.00 7.96 12.34

Chhattisgarh 48.00 32.07 40.22

Haryana 30.00 39.67 35.70

Kerala 2.32 2.37 2.47

Madhya Pradesh 13.00 10.96 13.14

Maharashtra 4.34 1.61 2.44

Odisha 37.00 25.05 25.09

Punjab 115.00 118.33 110.52

Tamil Nadu 15.00 6.00 1.40

Uttar Pradesh 37.00 28.75 23.54

Uttrakhand 7.00 0.38 7.06

West Bengal 27.00 0.33 14.51

All-India 430.00 315.99 327.03

State Target in marketing

season 2018-19

Progressive Procurement as on 13.04.2018

2019

2018

Gujarat 0.50 0.14 0.01

Haryana 74.00 12.49 20.99

Madhya Pradesh 67.00 21.06 22.57

Punjab 119.00 0.80 5.32

Rajasthan 16.00 1.71 0.75

Uttar Pradesh 40.00 2.50 0.18

Uttrakhand 1.00 0.01 0.01

All-India 320.00 38.73 49.85