F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 19.04.2021
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 16.04.2021.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 08 April 2021 to 14 April 2021, has been 29% lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 132% in Central India, - Higher by 27% in South Peninsula.
- Lower by 87% in North West India, - Lower by 36% in East & North East India,
Cumulative rainfall during Pre-Monsoon season, 01 March 2021 to 14 April 2021, has been 40% lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Lower by 45% in North West India, - Lower by 39% in East & North East India, - Lower by 38% in South Peninsula,
- Lower by 24% in Central India.
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 05 MET sub-divisions constituting 10% of total area, - Normal in 05 MET sub-division constituting 07% of total area,
- Deficient/large deficient in 24 MET sub-divisions constituting 77% of total area - No rainfall in 02 MET sub-divisions constituting 06% of total area.
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 174.23 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 15 April 2021 was 63.82 BCM, which is:
- 81% of last year’s storage on the same day (15 April 2020) of 78.45 BCM.
- 119% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 53.45 BCM.
As per 2nd Advance Estimates 2020-21, around 105% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown. Total area sown under Rabi crops in the country has been reported to be 648.41 lakh hectares as compared to 639.88 lakh hectares during 2019-20.
Inflation (WPI Food Index) has increased from 3.31% in February 2021 to 5.28% in March 2021.
Status of change of WPI in March 2021 over February 2021 for some major items is as under:
- All Commodities: increase from 4.17% to 7.39%.
- Primary Articles: increase from 1.82% to 6.40%
- Food Articles: increase from 1.36% to 3.24%.
- Non-food Articles: increase from 3.95% to 11.78%.
- Pulses: increase from 10.25% to 13.14%.
- Cereals: increase from -6.58% to -4.08%.
- Wheat: increase from -10.64% to -7.80%.
- Paddy: increase from -0.37% to 1.38%.
- Fruits and Vegetables: increase from 2.23% to 4.03%.
- Milk: declined from 3.21% to 2.65%.
All-India progressive procurement
As on 15 April 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 472.23 lakh MT as compared to 418.42 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.
PRE-MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (March – May) during the week ending 14 April, 2021
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (08 April to 14 April 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 12 met sub-divisions, normal in 05 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-divisions and no rain in 06 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 March 2021 to 14 April 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 05 met sub-divisions, normal in 05 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 24 sub-divisions and no rain in 02 sub-division. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (14.04.2021) Cumulative (01.01.21 to 14.04.2021) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 1.0 7.4 -87 LD 33.8 61.9 -45 D
Central 3.7 1.6 132 LE 9.2 12.1 -24 D
South Peninsula 8.4 6.6 27 E 16.8 27.1 -38 D
East & North-East 15.8 24.5 -36 D 68.8 112.9 -39 D
Country as a whole 5.7 8.0 -29 D 27.8 46.4 -40 D
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 March 2021 to 14 April 2021
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 March to
13 APR 2016
12 APR 2017
11 APR 2018
17 APR 2019
15 APR 2020
14 APR 2021 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 09 10 19
05 05 10 20
08 01 06 15
05 02 06 13
17 06 05 28
04 01 05 10 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
09 - 08 00 17
07 07 - 02 16
13 06 - 02 21
15 08 - 00 23
03 05 - 00 08
13 11 - 02 26
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 4% 11% (-) 31% (-) 33% 16% (-) 40%
Source: IMD
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1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks
Week-1: 15 - 21 April, 2021
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds over Western Himalayan Region during 15th- 17th April. Isolated hailstorm likely over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh on 15th & 16th and over Uttarakhand on 16th & 17th April.
Isolated light rainfall with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds over adjoining plains of Northwest India during 15th to 17th April. Isolated hailstorm also likely over Punjab on 15th
& 16th and over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, East Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh on 16th April. Duststorm at isolated places likely over West Rajasthan on 15th & 16th April and over East Rajasthan on 16th & 17th April, 2021.
Another intense Western Disturbance is very likely to influence northwest India during 20th to 22nd April, 2021. It is very likely to cause light/moderate scattered to widespread rainfall over Western Himalayan Region and light isolated rainfall over adjoining plains during the same period with its peak intensity on 21st April, 2021, isolated heavy falls is also likely over Kashmir valley on 21st April, 2021.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds very likely over south Peninsular India during next 2-3 days. Isolated heavy rainfall also likely over Kerala & Mahe and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during next 2 days; over South Interior Karnataka on today. The rainfall activity over south peninsular India is very likely to reduce on 17th & 18th April, 2021. Again rainfall activity likely to increase over the region from 19th to 21st with scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershower over southwest Peninsular India and isolated rain/thundershower over rest parts of Peninsular India.
Rainfall activity over Northeast India is very likely to increase from 17th April.
Thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds are very likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam &
Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 15th-20th April with possibility of isolated heavy falls over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya during 17th to 20th April, 2021.
Week-2: 22 -28 April, 2021
No intense Western Disturbance likely to affect northwest India during week 2. Hence rainfall activity is likely to be below normal over Western Himalayan Region.
Light thundershower is very likely over Kerala & Mahe, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka during many days of the week. Hence rainfall activity is likely to be normal to above normal over the above region.
It is likely to be below normal over northeast & adjoining east India and near normal over remaining parts of the country.
Temperature for week 1 & 2: (15 – 28 April, 2021)
Maximum temperatures over Northwest India are very likely to fall by 2-4°C during 1st half of the week1. Rise in maximum temperatures by 2-4°C very likely over Madhya
Maharashtra and Marathawada during 1st half of the week 1 and no significant change thereafter.
Fall in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C likely over Gujarat during next 2 days and no significant change thereafter for subsequent 3-4 days. No significant change in maximum temperatures over rest parts of the country during next one week.
Hence no major spell of heat wave is likely over any part of the country during next one week.
Due to likely dry weather over most parts of the country, maximum temperatures are likely to rise gradually over most parts of the country. It is likely to be above normal along the east coast, northeastern states, Gujarat, Bihar and parts of Western Himalayan Region. It is likely to be near normal or slightly below normal over remaining parts of the country.
Hence, there is low to moderate probability of getting heat wave at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh during week 2.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 15 April 2021)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 174.23 BCM, which is about 67.58% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs decreased to 63.82 BCM from the previous week’s level of 67.92 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 78.45 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 53.45 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country
Source: CWC
There were 105 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 13 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 06 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 06 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 37 81 119
Last Week 39 83 121
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 45% on 15.04.2020, 27% on 15.04.2019, 25% on 15.04.2018 and 30% on 15.04.2017.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 15.04.2021)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2021 341 131 97 617 152
Requirement for Apr. 2021 to Sept 2021 17753 6518 2024 6187 2646 Estimated Requirement during April 2021 2031 930 231 662 311
Cumulative Receipt upto 15.04.2021 735 62 22 198 105
Cumulative Availability upto 15.04.2021 1076 193 119 815 257
Cumulative Sales upto 15.04.2021 713 58 21 279 97
Closing Stock as on 15.04.2021 363 135 98 536 160
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
Rugose Spiraling Whitefly reported at moderate intensity in 66 hectare of Coconut in Ramanagara and Bangaluru rural districts of Karnataka.
Rugose Spiraling White fly (Aleurodicusrugioperculatus) in Coconut, farmers were advised to install yellow sticky traps in orchards to trap adults and application of 1% starch solution on leaflets to flake out the sooty moulds and Isaria fumosorosea @5ml/1lt of water spray. In severe case spray of neem oil 0.5% or NSKE 5% is recommended and avoid spraying in any form of insecticides.
V. Seeds:
Total availability of certified/quality seed is 165.08 lakh quintals against the requirement of 154.50 lakh quintals for Kharif-2021 season in the country. There is a surplus of 10.58 lakh quintals seeds.
VI. Mandi Functioning
PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 14 April, 2021)
Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Maize and Moong.
Agri produce sold above MSP: Barley, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Urad, Masur, Copra, Groundnut, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Cotton and Jute.
VII. Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items
Table - 7Period /
Commodities Weight
Inflation (year on year)
Mar-2021 Feb-2021 Mar -2020
All Commodities 100.00 7.39 4.17 0.42
Primary Articles 22.62 6.40 1.82 2.16
(a) Food Articles 15.26 3.24 1.36 4.64
Cereals 2.82 -4.08 -6.58 2.67
Paddy 1.43 1.38 -0.37 1.72
Wheat 1.03 -7.80 -10.64 4.76
Pulses 0.64 13.14 10.25 11.90
Gram 0.26 15.23 10.07 -2.12
Arhar 0.13 15.97 13.35 13.97
Moong 0.07 4.38 8.37 26.76
Masur 0.05 15.34 13.05 12.22
Urad 0.09 11.19 9.47 44.88
Vegetables 1.87 -5.19 -2.90 10.64
Potato 0.28 -33.40 -29.78 61.36
Onion 0.16 5.15 31.28 112.31
Fruits 1.60 16.33 9.48 -1.92
Milk 4.44 2.65 3.21 5.59
Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 5.38 -0.78 4.19
(b) Non-Food
Articles 4.12 11.78 3.95 0.89
Oilseeds 1.12 23.58 14.05 2.89
VIII. All India Rabi Crop Situation - 2020-21 (2nd Adv. Est.) vis-à-vis 2019-20 (Final Est.) Table 8.1
(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Rabi
Season
Area sown reported
Absolute Change This Year
2020-21
% of Normal for
whole season
Last Year 2019-20
Wheat 303.28 315.77 104.1 313.57 2.20
Rice 41.78 45.32 108.5 46.49 -1.17
Jowar 33.40 25.55 76.5 30.69 -5.14
Maize 17.37 16.75 96.5 20.16 -3.41
Barley 6.38 6.92 108.5 5.90 1.02
Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 49.22 86.1 56.74 -7.52
Total Cereals 402.20 410.31 102.0 416.81 -6.50
Gram 92.77 107.15 115.5 96.99 10.16
Urad 8.93 9.06 101.4 8.32 0.74
Moong 9.86 9.29 94.3 10.59 -1.30
Lentil 14.24 14.98 105.2 13.03 1.95
Others 19.09 17.61 92.2 15.60 2.01
Total Pulses 144.88 158.09 109.1 144.52 13.57
Total Foodgrains 547.07 568.40 103.9 561.33 7.07
Rapeseed& Mustard 59.44 68.53 115.3 68.56 -0.03
Groundnut 7.24 7.34 101.4 6.65 0.69
Safflower 1.15 0.49 42.4 0.52 -0.03
Sunflower 2.37 1.32 55.7 1.03 0.29
Linseed 2.74 2.34 85.2 1.80 0.54
Total Oilseeds 72.94 80.01 109.7 78.56 1.46
All- Crops 620.01 648.41 104.6 639.88 8.53
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
IX. Progressive Procurement as on 15
thApril, 2021
Table 9.1: Rice
(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates
during KMS 2020-21 (Kharif & Rabi Crops)
Progressive Procurement as on 15. 04.2021
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Andhra Pradesh 72.00 31.03 32.53
Telangana 105.00 32.66 31.55
Bihar 30.00 23.40 11.38
Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85
Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07
Kerala 5.80 2.99 2.57
Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40
Maharashtra 15.88 9.07 7.89
Odisha 48.00 42.80 35.72
Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76
Tamil Nadu 29.00 19.30 14.01
Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.17
Uttarakhand 6.70 7.12 6.81
West Bengal 26.80 13.85 14.68
All-India 637.97 472.23 418.42
Source: Food &PD
Annexe-III/p-1
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 15 - 21 April, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2021
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 15 APR 16 APR 17 APR 18 APR 19 APR 20 APR 21 APR
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS SCT L FWS L FWS L FWS L FWS L SCT SCT 2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS L FWS L WS● L WS● L WS● L FWS ISOL 3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA SCT L FWS L WS● L WS● L FWS L FWS SCT 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA SCT L FWS L FWS L FWS L FWS L SCT ISOL 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM SCT L FWS L # FWS L # FWS L SCT L SCT ISOL 6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL D
7 ODISHA ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL ISOL L ISOL ISOL
8 JHARKHAND ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L D D D
9 BIHAR ISOL ISOL L ISOL L D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D ISOL L ISOL L D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL L SCT L # ISOL L D D ISOL D
12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL FWS L # WS L # ISOL D SCT FWS
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI ISOL L SCT L # ISOL L D D ISOL ISOL
14 PUNJAB ISOL L # FWS L # ISOL L D D ISOL ISOL
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH SCT L # FWS● L # WS● L ISOL D SCT FWS 16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH WS● L # WS● L # WS● L SCT D FWS WS●
17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL D $ SCT D $ D D D ISOL D
18 EAST RAJASTSAN ISOL L ISOL D $ ISOL L D
$ D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL L D D D D D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL L D D D D D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL L D D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA ISOL L D D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA ISOL L ISOL L D D D D D
27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM SCT L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL
29 TELANGANA ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
30 RAYALASEEMA SCT L ISOL L D D D D D
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL FWS● L SCT ● L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA FWS L ISOL L ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL L D D D D ISOL ISOL
34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA FWS● L ISOL L ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT
35 KERALA & MAHE FWS● L FWS● L FWS L SCT SCT SCT FWS
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT L SCT L SCT L SCT D D SCT
LEGENDS:
WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
F Fog * Snowfall DDuststorm $Thunderstorm with Squall L Thunderstorm with Lightning #Thunderstorm with Hail
Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5 OC to -6.4OC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5OC)
Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5 OC to +6.4OC) + Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5OC)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 16 – 20 April 2021:
