Friday 06 August 2021 - Time of Issue: 0800 hours IST

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Friday 06 August 2021 MORNING Time of Issue: 0800 hours IST ALL INDIA WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST BULLETIN

Significant Weather Features

♦ A Low Pressure Area lies over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood. The associated cyclonic circulation extends upto mid-tropospheric level. It is likely to become less marked during next 24 hours. However, the associated cyclonic circulation is likely to continue for subsequent 48 hours over the same region.

♦ The Monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes pass through Bikaner, Jaipur, centre of Low Pressure Area over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh

& neighbourhood, Varanasi, Patna, Bankura and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal. It is likely to shift close to foot hills of the Himalayas by 10th August.

♦ Under the influence of the above weather systems:

(i) Fairly widespread/widespread rainfall very likely over Madhya Pradesh during next 5 days.

(ii) Fairly widespread/widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely over Odisha and Jharkhand on 06th and Bihar during 07th- 09th August, 2021.

(iii) Fairly widespread/widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely over northeastern states till 9th with enhanced rainfall activity from 10th Aug.

Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Assam & Meghalaya during next 5 days; over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on 06th and Arunachal Pradesh on 08th & 09th August, 2021.

(iv) Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh during next 5 days with isolated heavy rainfall over these areas during the same period. Isolated to scattered rainfall very likely over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir till 9th August with isolated heavy rainfall also likely over East Rajasthan on 6th August and Subdued rainfall likely to continue till 10th August except over northern parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand where rainfall likely to sustain.

♦ Reduced rainfall activity likely to continue over Peninsular India and adjoining east Central India (except Odisha), Maharashtra and Gujarat state during next 4-5 days.

Main Weather Observations

♦ Rain/Thundershowers observed (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday): at many places over Jharkhand, East Madhya Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe and Uttarakhand; at a few places over Assam & Meghalaya, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Coastal Karnataka and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; and at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan

& Muzaffarabad,Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Chhattisgarh, East Rajasthan, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Vidarbha, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Rainfall Amount recorded (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday) (2 cm or more): Guna-5; Rohtak, Lumding, Haflong and Valprai-3 each;

Kota and Mahabaleshwar-2 each.

♦ Thunderstorm observed (from 0830 hours IST yesterday to 0530 hours IST of today): at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan

& Muzaffarabad, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram

& Tripura, Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Assam & Meghalaya.

♦ Maximum Temperature Departures as on 05-08-2021: Maximum temperatures were appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C) at many places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam; at isolated places over Odisha and Tamilnadu, Puducherry

& Karaikal; above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at most places over Telangana, Assam & Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and West Rajasthan;

at many places over Himachal Pradesh, Saurashtra & Kutch and Konkan & Goa; at a few places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan

& Muzaffarabad, Gujarat Region, East Uttar Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Marathwada, Kerala & Mahe and Bihar and at isolated places over East Rajasthan. They were below normal (-1.6°C to -3.0°C) at many places over West Madhya Pradesh; at a few places over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and East Madhya Pradesh and near normal over rest parts of the country. Yesterday, the highest maximum temperature of 40.7°C was reported at Ganganagar (West Rajasthan).

♦ Minimum Temperature Departures as on 05-08-2021: Minimum temperatures were above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at many places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places over Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Odisha, Gujarat Region and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam; at isolated places over Punjab, West Rajasthan, Saurashtra & Kutch, Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, Kerala & Mahe and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal. They were below normal (-1.6°C to -3.0°C) at isolated places over East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand and near normal over rest parts of the country. Yesterday, the lowest minimum temperature of 18.0°C was reported at Narsinghpur (East Madhya Pradesh).

* Red color warning does not mean "Red Alert" Red color warning means "Take Action".

Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day For more details kindly visit www.imd.gov.in or contact : +91 11 24631913, 24643965, 24629798

(Service to the Nation since 1875)

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Meteorological Analysis (Based on 0530 hours IST)

♦ The Low Pressure Area over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood with associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level persists.

♦ The Monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes pass through Bikaner, Jaipur, centre of Low Pressure Area over central parts of north Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood, Varanasi, Patna, Bankura and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal.

♦ The cyclonic circulation over north Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level persists.

♦ The Western Disturbance as a trough with its axis at 3.1 km above mean sea level roughly along longitude 72°E to the north of latitude 30°N persists.

**Weather Forecast for next 5 days * upto 0830 hours IST of 11th August, 2021**

♦ Meteorological sub-division wise detailed 5 days precipitation forecast is given in Table-1.

♦ No significant change in maximum temperatures over most parts of the country during next 5 days.

Weather Outlook for subsequent 2 days from 11th August 2021 to 13th August 2021

♦ Normal monsoon conditions over Northeast & East India and weak monsoon conditions over rest parts of the country

.

♦ Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely over Northeast India, East India and along the west coast. Isolated to scattered rainfall over rest parts of the country.

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Weather Warning during next 5 days *

06 August (Day 1):♦ Heavy Rainfall very likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning very likely at isolated places over Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal.

♦ Strong winds (speed 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph) very likely over Southwest, Eastcentral and Westcentral Arabian Sea.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

07 August (Day 2):♦ Heavy Rainfall very likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning very likely at isolated places over Jharkhand, Bihar and Tamilnadu, Puducherry

& Karaikal.

♦ Strong winds (speed 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph) very likely over Southwest, Eastcentral and Westcentral Arabian Sea.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

08 August (Day 3): ♦ Heavy Rainfall likely at isolated places over Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Kerala & Mahe and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over Kerala & Mahe and accompanied with lightning at isolated places over Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Tamilnadu, Puducherry

& Karaikal.

♦ Strong winds (speed 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph) likely over Southwest, Eastcentral and Westcentral Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

09 August (Day 4): ♦ Heavy Rainfall likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over Kerala & Mahe and accompanied with lightning at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

10 August (Day 5): ♦ Heavy Rainfall likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal

& Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya.

♦ Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Kerala & Mahe and accompanied with lightning at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

Kindly download MAUSAM APP for location specific forecast & warning, MEGHDOOT APP for Agromet advisory and DAMINI APP for Lightning Warning & visit state MC/RMC websites for district wise warning.

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Table-1

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ALL INDIA WEEKLY WEATHER REPORT 29 JULY – 04 AUGUST, 2021

Go to:

Table-1(A) Table-1(B) Table-1(C) Table-2 Table-3 Fig-1 Fig-2 Annexure-1

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES

♦ A Well Marked Low Pressure Area lay over coastal Bangladesh & adjoining West Bengal in the beginning of the week; it lay over Gangetic West Bengal & adjoining Jharkhand on 30^th; over southwest Bihar & neighbourhood on 31^st July 2021;over southeast Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood on 1^st August 2021;over southwest Uttar Pradesh & adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 2^nd and over northwest Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood on 3^rd; it weakened into a Low pressure area in the early morning hours and lay over the same region on 4^th August 2021; this system along with its associated cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels, during its west-northwestward movement have caused fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorms activity over parts of East India and over eastern parts of Central India during the first half of the week and over parts of Northwest and Central India on many days during the week;

under its influence, heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall had been reported over West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan on five to six days and over East Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh on three to four days along with.

♦ A Low Pressure Area has formed over southern parts of central Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood on 30^th July 2021; it lay over southern parts of Haryana & neighbourhood on 31^st July 2021 and persisted over the same region on 1^st August 2021 before merging with the Well Marked Low pressure Area over southwest Uttar Pradesh & adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 2^nd August 2021;this system along with its associated cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels and the monsoon trough at mean sea level slightly north of its normal position have caused fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity over parts of Northwest India during the first half of the week; it has also caused heavy/ very heavy rainfall at isolated places over parts of Northwest India on one or two days along with.

♦ Eventhough, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity had been observed along the west coast, due to lack of favourable synoptic conditions, the monsoon activity had been in general subdued over most parts of Peninsular India, Maharashtra and Gujarat State during the week.

Heavy rain:

♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls at isolated places had occurred over East Rajasthan on five days;

over West Madhya Pradesh on three days; over Gangetic West Bengal on two days; over West Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan and East Madhya Pradesh on one day each during the week.

♦ Heavy to Very heavy rainfall at isolated places had occurred over East & West Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, Chandigarh &

Delhi on four days each; over Jharkhand, East & West Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on three days each; over Assam

& Meghalaya, Gangetic West Bengal, Punjab and West Rajasthan on two days each; over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram &

Tripura, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka on one day each during the week.

♦ Heavy rainfall at isolated places had occurred over Bihar on six days;over Assam & Meghalaya and Madhya Maharashtra on four days each; over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Jharkhand and Jammu Kashmir & Ladakh on three days each; over Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, East Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka on two days each; over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Gangetic West Bengal, East & West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Coastal Karnataka on one day each during the week.

Temperature Scenario:

♦The highest maximum temperature of 40.6^oC had been recorded at Phalodi (West Rajasthan) and the lowest minimum temperature of 17.7^oC had been recorded at Fatehgarh (East Uttar Pradesh) on 4^th August.

LEGEND: A few days- 3 days, Many days- 4 to 5 days and Most days- 6 to 7 days during the week.

METEOROLOGICALANALYSIS

♦ Last week’s Well Marked Low Pressure Area over coastal Bangladesh & adjoining West Bengal persisted over the same region with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 7.6 km above mean sea level on 29^th July 2021;it lay over Gangetic West Bengal & adjoining Jharkhand with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 7.6 km above mean sea level on 30^th; it lay over southwest Bihar & neighbourhood with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 7.6 km above mean sea level on 31^st July 2021; it lay over southeast Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 7.6 km above mean sea level on 1^st August 2021; it lay over southwest Uttar Pradesh &

adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 7.6 km above mean sea level on 2^nd; it lay over northwest Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 7.6 km above mean sea level on 3^rd;it weakened into a Low pressure area in the early morning hours and lay over northwest Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level on 4^th August 2021.

♦ The Monsoon trough at mean sea level passed through Ferozepur, Rohtak, Aligarh, Prayagraj, Daltonganj and thence east-southeastwards to the centre of Well Marked Low Pressure area over Coastal Bangladesh & adjoining West Bengal and extended upto 0.9 km above mean sea level on 29^th July 2021; it passed through Ganganagar, Narnaul, Low Pressure Area over southern parts of central Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood , Gaya, centre of Well Marked Low Pressure Area over Gangetic West Bengal & adjoining Jharkhand and thence southeastwards to North Bay of Bengal on 30^th;it passed through Ganganagar, centre of Low Pressure Area over southern parts of Haryana & neighbourhood,Firozabad, Banda,

Government of India Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department National Weather Forecasting Centre

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centre of Low Pressure Area over southwest Bihar & neighbourhood, Digha, and thence southeastwards to Northwest Bay of Bengal on 31^st July 2021;it passed through Anupgarh, centre of Low Pressure Area over southern parts of Haryana &

neighbourhood, Aligarh, centre of Well Marked Low Pressure Area over southeast Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood, Gaya, Dumka, Bankura, Diamond Harbour and thence southeastwards to North Bay of Bengal on 1^st August 2021; it passed through Ganganagar, Hissar, Delhi, centre of Well Marked Low Pressure Area over southwest Uttar Pradesh & adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh, Varanasi, Patna, Malda and thence to Tripura across north Bangladesh on 2^nd; it passed through Jaisalmer, Alwar, centre of Well Marked Low Pressure Area over northwest Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood, Varanasi, Patna, Malda and thence towards Arunachal Pradesh across north Bangladesh on 3^rd; it passed through Ganganagar, Narnaul, centre of Low Pressure Area over northwest Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood, Varanasi, Patna, Shanti Niketan, Balasore and thence southeastwards to Northeast Bay of Bengal on 4^th August 2021.

♦ Last week’s off-shore trough from South Gujarat coast to north Kerala coast lay extending from South Maharashtra coast to north Kerala coast on 29^th July 2021; it has become less marked on 30^th July 2021.

♦ Last week’s cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan & adjoining Punjab lay over Haryana & neighbourhood at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 29^th July 2021;it has become less marked on 30^th July 2021.

♦ Last week’s trough from the cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan & adjoining Punjab to south Gujarat across West Rajasthan at 3.1 km above mean sea level has become less marked on 29^th July 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over East Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood between 1.5 & 4.5 km above mean sea level on 29^th July 2021;it has become less marked on 30^th July 2021.

♦ A Low Pressure Area lay over southern parts of central Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 7.6 km above mean sea level on 30^th July 2021; it lay over southern parts of Haryana &

neighbourhood with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level on 31^st July 2021;it persisted over the same region with the associated cyclonic circulation extending upto 4.5 km above mean sea level on 1^st August 2021;both the Low pressure area and the associated cyclonic circulation have merged with the Well Marked Low pressure Area and its associated cyclonic circulation over southwest Uttar Pradesh & adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 2^nd August 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over central Pakistan & neighbourhood between 1.5 km & 3.1 km above mean sea level on 2^nd August 2021; it has become less marked on 3^rd August 2021.

♦ A Western Disturbance as a trough in mid & upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level lay roughly along longitude 64°E to the north of latitude 28°N on 2^nd August 2021; it continued to be seen as a trough in mid

& upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along longitude 65°E to the north of latitude 30°N on 3^rd; it was seen as a trough in mid tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 3.1 km above mean sea level roughly along longitude70°E to the north of latitude 28°N on 4^th August 2021.

♦ A cyclonic circulation lay over north Bangladesh & neighbourhood and extended upto 1.5 km above mean sea level on 2^nd August 2021; it lay over North Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood and Was seen between 1.5 & 5.8 km above mean sea level on 3^rd; it persisted over the same region and extended upto 5.8 km above mean sea level on 4^th August 2021.

RAINFALL SUMMARY

Category of the rainfall

WEEK SEASON

29.07.2021 TO 04.08.2021 01.06.2021 TO 04.08.2021 Number of Sub-divisions Number of Sub-divisions

LARGE EXCESS (+60% or more) 6 1

EXCESS (+20% to +59%) 3 10

NORMAL (+19% to -19%) 6 17

DEFICIENT (-20% to -59%) 11 8

LARGE DEFICIENT (-60% to -99%) 10 0

NO RAIN (-100%) 0 0

Cumulative rainfall (mm) Actual Normal % Departure Actual Normal % Departure EAST & NORTH-EAST INDIA 106.0 85.2 +24% 714.6 826.1 -14%

NORTH-WEST INDIA 75.4 51.9 +45% 322.0 317.0 +2%

CENTRAL INDIA 60.1 78.1 -23% 530.3 537.1 -1%

SOUTH PENINSULA 13.5 48.1 -72% 449.2 404.1 +11%

country as a whole _63.0 _65.2 _-3% _479.7 _489.3 _-2%

 Sub-division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is presented in Fig-1 and Fig-2.

 Sub-divisionwise daily distribution of realised Rainfall is shown in Table-1(A).

 Sub-divisionwise departure of realised Maximum temperature from Normal is shown in Table-1(C)

 Statewise distribution of number of districts with Large-Excesse, Excess, Normal, Deficient, Large-deficient and no rainfall is shown in Table-2.

 Cumulative seasonal rainfall data during the corresponding weekly period for the last five years are given in Table-3.

 Sub-divisionwise realised weekly rainfall (in cm) is shown in Annexure-1.

FORECAST & WARNING FOR THE NEXT WEEK 05 August TO 11 August, 2021

 Detailed seven days Sub-division wise rainfall-forecast is given in Table-1(B).

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Table-1 (A)

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE DISTRIBUTION OF REALISED RAINFALL-2021

S.No. MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 29 JUL 30 JUL 31 JUL 01 AUG 02 AUG 03 AUG 04 AUG

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWS FWS FWS FWS WS WS FWS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS WS FWS WS* FWS SCT ISOL

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS WS WS* WS FWS FWS SCT

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS FWS WS* WS WS FWS SCT

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS WS WS WS WS FWS WS

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL WS** WS** WS* ISOL ISOL SCT WS

7 ODISHA WS WS* FWS SCT SCT SCT ISOL

8 JHARKHAND WS WS** WS** FWS ISOL SCT FWS

9 BIHAR WS WS* WS FWS SCT SCT FWS*

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH FWS FWS FWS FWS* FWS ISOL ISOL

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH WS* WS* FWS* FWS FWS* SCT ISOL

12 UTTARAKHAND WS WS WS SCT FWS FWS FWS

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI WS** WS** WS* ISOL FWS SCT SCT

14 PUNJAB WS** FWS* ISOL ISOL SCT SCT FWS*

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS* WS WS WS SCT FWS FWS

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH WS* WS FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT

17 WEST RAJASTHAN SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL

18 EAST RAJASTHAN SCT FWS* WS* WS** WS* WS WS*

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH FWS WS FWS FWS WS* WS** FWS

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH WS WS WS* WS* WS* SCT** SCT

21 GUJARAT REGION FWS WS SCT SCT SCT FWS SCT

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH ISOL SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL

23 KONKAN & GOA WS WS WS WS WS WS WS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

26 VIDARBHA WS FWS WS FWS SCT WS FWS

27 CHHATTISGARH WS WS WS* FWS SCT FWS SCT

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

30 RAYALASEEMA D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS WS WS WS WS WS WS*

33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS

34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT FWS

35 KERALA & MAHE WS FWS WS FWS FWS WS WS

36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT SCT D FWS FWS FWS FWS

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%) SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO STATION REPORTED RAINFALL

* ACTIVE (R/F 1^1/2- 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 5 cm. along west coast & 3 cm. elsewhere )

** VIGOROUS (R/F More than 4 times the normal with WS/FWS, at least 2 stations should be 8 cm. along west coast & 5 cm. elsewhere)

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Table-1 (B)

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST -2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 05 AUG 06 AUG 07 AUG 08 AUG 09 AUG 10 AUG 11 AUG

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS WS WS FWS FWS WS WS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH SCT SCT FWS FWS^● WS^● WS WS

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● WS^● WS^● WS WS

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS^● FWS^● FWS FWS FWS FWS WS

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM SCT FWS FWS^● WS^● WS^● WS WS

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL WS^● WS FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT

7 ODISHA FWS^● FWS^● SCT SCT SCT ISOL SCT

8 ^JHARKHAND FWS^● FWS^● FWS FWS FWS SCT WS

9 BIHAR FWS FWS FWS^● WS^● WS^● WS WS

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL SCT FWS FWS FWS WS WS

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH SCT FWS^● FWS^● FWS SCT SCT FWS

12 UTTARAKHAND FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● FWS WS^● FWS WS

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

14 PUNJAB ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS SCT FWS

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT

17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

18 EAST RAJASTSAN SCT^● SCT^● SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH WS^●● WS^● WS^● FWS FWS ISOL ISOL

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH FWS FWS^● FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT

21 GUJARAT REGION ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT ISOL SCT

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

23 KONKAN & GOA WS^● WS WS WS WS WS WS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA SCT^● SCT SCT ISOL ISOL SCT SCT

25 MARATHAWADA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

26 VIDARBHA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

27 CHHATTISGARH SCT FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

30 RAYALASEEMA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL ISOL ISOL^● ISOL^● ISOL ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS WS^● WS^● WS WS FWS FWS

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT

35 KERALA & MAHE WS WS^● WS^● WS^● WS FWS FWS

36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS WS WS WS WS FWS FWS

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

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Table-1 (C)

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE REALISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE-2021

S.No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 29 JUL 30 JUL 31 JUL 01 AUG 02 AUG 03 AUG 04 AUG

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS N N N N N N N

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH N N N N N N N

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA N N N N N N N

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA N N N N N N N

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM N N N N N N N

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL N N N N N N N

7 ODISHA N N N AN N N N

8 JHARKHAND BN MBN MBN N N N BN

9 BIHAR N N N N N N N

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH N N N N N N N

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH N N N N N N N

12 UTTARAKHAND N AN AAN N N N N

13 HARYANA, CHD. & DELHI N N N ABN BN N N

14 PUNJAB N N N N N N N

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH N N N AN N N AN

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH N N BN N N N N

17 WEST RAJASTHAN N N N MBN N N AN

18 EAST RAJASTHAN ABN N BN N ABN N N

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH N N BN N ABN N N

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH N ABN BN N N N N

21 GUJARAT REGION N N N N N N N

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH N N N N N N N

23 KONKAN & GOA N N N N N N N

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA N N N N N N N

25 MARATHAWADA N BN N N N N AN

26 VIDARBHA N N N N N N N

27 CHHATTISGARH N ABN N N N N AN

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM N N N AN AN AN AAN

29 TELANGANA N N N N N N N

30 RAYALASEEMA N N N N N N N

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL N N N N N N N

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA N N AN N AN N N

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA N N N N N N N

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA N N N N N N N

35 KERALA & MAHE AN AN N AN N N N

36 LAKSHADWEEP N N N N N N N

Highest Maximum Temperature (°C) 39.6 38.7 39.4 39.3 39.2 40.2 40.6

Station/(s) observed HMT ^Madurai ^Bikaner ^Madurai Ganganagar Ganganagar Madurai Phalodi

Station/(s) lies in Met-Subdivision/(s) T P W RAJ T P W RAJ W RAJ T P W RAJ

Lowest Minimum Temperature (°C) 19.6 17.8 18.2 18.4 19.0 18.8 17.7

Station/(s) observed LMT Khargone Fatehgarh Khargone Khargone Khargone Narsinghpur ^Khargone, Fatehgarh

Station/(s) lies in Met-Subdivision/(s) W MP NIK W MP W MP W MP MP E UP

LEGENDS:

BN - BELOW NORMAL (N-2)^OC AN - ABOVE NORMAL (N+2)^OC

N - NORMAL (N+1,N-1)ÔC ABN - APPRECIABLY BELOW NORMAL (N-3.1 to -4.9)ÔC AAN - APPRECIABLY ABOVE NORMAL (N+3.1 to +4.9)ÔC MBN - MARKEDLY BELOW NORMAL (N-5 AND BELOW )ÔC MAN - MARKEDLY ABOVE NORMAL (N+5 AND ABOVE)ÔC

⁺Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5ÔC to +6.4ÔC)  -Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5ÔC to -6.4ÔC)

⁺⁺ Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5^OC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5^OC)

(10)

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Table-2

STATEWISE DISTRIBUTION OF NO. OF DISTRICTS WITH EXCESS, NORMAL,DEFICIENT,SCANTY AND NO RAINFALL

S. STATES PERIOD FROM : 01-06-2021 TO 04-08-2021

NO. LE E N D LD NR ND TOTAL

1 A & N ISLAND (UT) 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3

2. ARUNACHAL PRADESH 0 0 3 11 2 0 0 16

3. ASSAM 0 1 14 12 0 0 0 27

4. MEGHALAYA 0 2 0 5 0 0 0 7

5. NAGALAND 0 0 4 7 0 0 0 11

6. MANIPUR 1 0 0 3 5 0 0 9

7. MIZORAM 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 8

8. TRIPURA 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 4

9. SIKKIM 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 4

10. WEST BENGAL 1 7 6 5 0 0 0 19

11. ODISHA 0 0 14 16 0 0 0 30

12. JHARKHAND 2 7 13 2 0 0 0 24

13. BIHAR 2 14 20 2 0 0 0 38

14. UTTAR PRADESH 4 15 30 24 2 0 0 75

15. UTTARAKHAND 2 0 10 1 0 0 0 13

16. HARYANA 9 7 4 2 0 0 0 22

17. CHANDIGARH (UT) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

18. DELHI 4 1 3 1 0 0 0 9

19. PUNJAB 1 3 11 6 1 0 0 22

20. HIMACHAL PRADESH 0 1 9 2 0 0 0 12

21. JAMMU & KASHMIR(UT) 0 4 10 4 2 0 0 20

22. LADAKH(UT) 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2

23. RAJASTHAN 5 12 9 7 0 0 0 33

24. MADHYA PRADESH 5 13 23 10 0 0 0 51

25. GUJARAT 0 0 3 30 0 0 0 33

26. DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI (UT) 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1

27. DAMAN & DIU (UT) 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2

28. GOA 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2

29. MAHARASHTRA 2 12 19 3 0 0 0 36

30. CHHATISGARH 1 2 17 7 0 0 0 27

31. ANDHRA PRADESH 3 2 8 0 0 0 0 13

32. TELANGANA 11 13 9 0 0 0 0 33

33. TAMILNADU 9 19 9 1 0 0 0 38

34. PUDUCHERRY (UT) 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 4

35. KARNATAKA 11 8 9 2 0 0 0 30

36. KERALA 0 0 3 11 0 0 0 14

37. LAKSHADWEEP (UT) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

TOTAL 73 145 275 188 13 0 0 694

CATEGORYWISE DISTRIBUTION

OF DISTRICTS OUT OF THE 11% 21% 39% 27% 2% 0%

694 WHOSE DATA RECEIVED

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION OF DISTRICTS IN EARLIER YEARS SINCE 1st June

DATE LE E N D LD NR

5-8-2020 12% 16% 38% 31% 3% 0%

7-8-2019 4% 13% 40% 39% 4% 0%

1-8-2018 3% 16% 46% 31% 4% 0%

2-8-2017 7% 16% 44% 30% 3% 0%

3-8-2016 0% 29% 40% 28% 3% 0%

(11)

4 Back to Top

Table-3

RAINFALL DURING MONSOON SEASON

S.

No.

Meteorological Sub-Divisions

For the period from 1

^st

June to 03 AUG

2016

02 AUG 2017

01 AUG 2018

07 AUG 2019

05 AUG 2020

04 AUG 2021

1. Andaman &

Nicobar Islands A N D

772 879 -12

762 869 -12

763 859 -11

974 903 +8

1045 874 +20

903 863 +5 2. Arunachal

Pradesh

A N D

1038 1070 -3

846 1058

-20

669 1047

-36

1061 1089 -3

1155 1068 +8

667 1059

-37 3 Assam &

Meghalaya

A N D

787 1095

-28

862 1083

-20

719 1068

-33

1081 1141 -5

1350 1121 +20

844 1109

-24 4.

Nagaland, Manipur, Mizo.

& Tripura

A N D

635 866 -27

942 854 +10

633 840 -25

713 868 -18

599 846 -29

560 836 -33 5.

Sub-Himalayan West Bengal &

Sikkim

A N D

1317 1148 +15

923 1134

-19

917 1115

-18

1203 1212 -1

1617 1183 +37

999 1169

-15 6. Gangetic West

Bengal

A N D

575 613 -6

694 598 +16

540 586 -8

360 671 -46

605 649 -7

818 639 +28 7. Odisha

A N D

496 587 -16

574 575 +0

600 562 +7

551 655 -16

554 626 -11

467 613 -24 8. Jharkhand

A N D

458 566 -19

620 553 +12

414 542 -24

373 599 -38

501 577 -13

615 566 +9 9. Bihar

A N D

498 544 -8

480 533 -10

405 522 -22

553 578 -4

792 562 +41

658 555 +19 10. East Uttar

Pradesh

A N D

447 437 +2

390 428 -9

349 417 -16

425 445 -4

493 429 +15

442 422 +5 11. West Uttar

Pradesh

A N D

434 359 +21

274 351 -22

365 339 +8

298 379 -21

258 361 -29

336 353 -5 12. Uttarakhand

A N D

716 646 +11

653 631 +3

555 614 -10

464 680 -32

559 655 -15

669 642 +4 13.

Haryana, Chandigarh &

Delhi

A N D

201 230 -13

209 225 -7

215 218 -1

174 248 -30

222 237 -6

328 231 +42 14. Punjab

A N D

197 253 -22

238 246 -3

242 239 +1

239 274 -13

248 261 -5

240

255 -6

(12)

5

S. No.

Meteorological Sub-Divisions

For the period from 1

^st

June to 03 AUG

2016

02 AUG 2017

01 AUG 2018

07 AUG 2019

05 AUG 2020

04 AUG 2021

15. Himachal Pradesh

A N D

326 437 -25

366 425 -14

363 413 -12

318 441 -28

285 423 -33

388 414 -6 16.

Jammu &

Kashmir and Ladakh

A N D

272 285 -5

368 276 +34

259 266 -2

311 332 -6

153 315 -51

269 307 -12 17. West Rajasthan

A N D

128 140 -9

306 138 +122

142 135 +5

156 164 -5

132 156 -15

145 152 -4 18. East Rajasthan

A N D

439 309 +42

389 301 +29

336 294 +14

425 341 +24

218 326 -33

387 318 +22 19. West Madhya

Pradesh

A N D

622 429 +45

418 417 +0

443 406 +9

545 469 +16

398 448 -11

536 436 +23 20. East Madhya

Pradesh

A N D

692 523 +32

475 508 -6

481 496 -3

479 576 -17

462 549 -16

524 536 -2 21. Gujarat Region

A N D

338 497 -32

756 493 +53

468 484 -3

618 564 +10

292 540 -46

334 527 -37 22. Saurashtra &

Kutch

A N D

154 285 -46

453 283 +60

229 279 -18

233 331 -30

453 319 +42

186 311 -40 23. Konkan & Goa

A N D

2413 1914 +26

1958 1879 +4

2224 1844 +21

2954 1977 +49

2099 1918 +9

2466 1888 +31 24. Madhya

Maharashtra

A N D

501 411 +22

477 403 +18

430 395 +9

749 453 +65

489 436 +12

515 429 +20 25. Marathawada

A N D

460 350 +31

266 343 -23

302 336 -10

296 359 -18

484 345 +40

426 338 +26 26. Vidarbha

A N D

693 516 +34

401 502 -20

534 490 +9

530 559 -5

458 533 -14

507 520 -2 27. Chhattisgarh

A N D

580 600 -3

570 591 -4

544 577 -6

597 661 -10

601 635 -5

596 623 -4 28.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh &

Yanam

A N D

323 278 +16

313 273 +14

282 269 +5

306 298 +3

375 289 +29

300 284 +6 29. Telangana

A N D

464 397 +17

351 390 -10

367 385 -5

437 422 +4

478 404 +18

563

395 +43

(13)

6

S. No.

Meteorological Sub-Divisions

For the period from 1

^st

June to 03 AUG

2016

02 AUG 2017

01 AUG 2018

07 AUG 2019

05 AUG 2020

04 AUG 2021

30. Rayalaseema A N D

263 170 +55

145 168 -13

97 165

-41

130 186 -30

405 179 +126

300 176 +70 31.

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry &

Karaikal

A N D

153 120 +28

117 118 +0

113 116 -2

103 147 -30

217 142 +53

189 134 +40 32. Coastal

Karnataka

A N D

1769 2131 -17

1667 2098 -21

2051 2062 -1

2191 2204 -1

2038 2149 -5

1878 2119 -11 33. North Interior

Karnataka

A N D

315 253 +25

209 249 -16

197 244 -19

341 261 +31

371 253 +47

361 249 +45 34. South Interior

Karnataka

A N D

386 377 +2

239 371 -36

380 364 +4

372 405 -8

419 392 +7

448 386 +16 35. Kerala & Mahe

A N D

1051 1432 -27

972 1415

-31

1638 1395 +17

1078 1483 -27

1228 1452 -15

1012 1437 -30 36. Lakshadweep

A N D

585 640 -9

687 634 +8

355 626 -43

748 674 +11

851 661 +29

327 655 -50 Country as a

whole

A N D

488.3 481.3 +1

472.7 471.8

0 431.6 462.1

-7

492.7 516.4

-5

492.9 498.3

-1

479.7 489.3

-2

SUMMARY No. of Sub-Divisions

with rainfall

For the period from 1

^st

June to 03 AUG

2016

02 AUG 2017

01 AUG 2018

07 AUG 2019

05 AUG 2020

04 AUG 2021 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 11 18 29

02 03 23 28

00 01 28 29

01 03 22 26

01 10 19 30

01 10 17 28 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

07 - 00 00 07

08 00 - 00 08

07 00 - 00 07

10 00 - 00 10

06 00 - 00 06

08 00 - 00 08

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

*

Data is rounded off to nearest full figure according to Meteorological convention.

SEASONS:WINTER SEASON (January-February) PRE-MONSOON SEASON (March-May)

MONSOON SEASON (June-September) POST-MONSOON SEASON (October-December) LEGENDS:

Large Excess: (+60% or more) Large Deficient: (-60% to -99%) A: Actual Rainfall (mm) Excess: (+20% to +59%) Scanty: (-20% to -99%) N: Normal Rainfall (mm)

Normal: (+19% to -19%) No Rain (-100%) D: Departure from normal (%)

Deficient: (-20% to -59%) Data Inadequate: ** Rainfall upto 0.4 mm : *

(14)

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Fig-1

(15)

3 Back to Top

Fig-2

(16)

1 | P a g e

Government of India

Earth System Science Organization Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department

Dated: 5

^th

August, 2021 Subject: Current Weather Status and Extended range Forecast for next two weeks

(5-18 August 2021)

1. Salient Features

 Prolonged Spell of persistent very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall event was observed for 5-6 days over east Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh during 29 July-4 Aug 2021 causing large-scale flooding over these areas. The rainfall was mainly caused by both Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal monsoonal winds at lower and middle levels in association with west-ward movement of a well-marked low pressure area which lay over Jharkhand on 30

^th

and moved over to northwest Madhya Pradesh during 2

^nd

to 4

^th

August.

 Subdued rainfall activity over southern Peninsular India, Maharashtra and Gujarat during the week due to weak pressure gradient and absence of off-shore trough along West coast of India.

 Weekly cumulative rainfall departure for the country as a whole for the week ending on 4

^th

Aug is 3% below its Long Period Average (LPA), while the Seasonal cumulative rainfall departure from LPA from 1 June to 4

^th

Aug, 2021 is 2 % below the LPA.

Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are

given Table 1 with met sub-divisions-wise rainfall both for week and season given in

Annex 1.

(17)

2 | P a g e

 Forecast for next 2 weeks based on NWP model consensus:

a) Week 1 (5-11 Aug, 2021)

i) Expected gradual weakening of Low Pressure Area over Madhya Pradesh during 05-07 August and gradual shifting of monsoon trough to the foothills of the Himalayas by 10

^th

August.

ii) Sub-dued rainfall activity over most parts of northwest India from today 5

^th

August and reduced rainfall activity over Central and adjoining Peninsular India from 07

^th

August. iii) Increase in rainfall activity along the foothills of the Himalayas and adjoining areas of northern plains and northeastern states from 10

^th

August.

b) Week 2 (12-18 August 2021)

i)Increase in rainfall activity over Peninsular India with widespread rainfall activity and isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely along the west coast during most of the days.

ii)Normal to above normal rainfall activity likely over south interior Peninsular &

adjoining central India and northeast & adjoining East India.

iii)Sub-dued rainfall activity over northwest India likely to continue over northwest &

adjoining central India.

Table 1: Rainfall status (Week and season)

Region

WEEK SEASON

29.07.2021 TO 04.08.2021 01.06.2021 TO 04.08.2021 Actual Normal %

Departure Actual Normal % Departure EAST & NORTH-

EAST INDIA 106.0 85.2 +24% 714.6 826.1 -14%

NORTH-WEST

INDIA 75.4 51.9 +45% 322.0 317.0 +2%

CENTRAL INDIA 60.1 78.1 -23% 530.3 537.1 -1%

SOUTH 13.5 48.1 -72% 449.2 404.1 +11%