F. No. 3-1/ 2018-19-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 344-A Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 19.02.2019
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 15.02.2019.
Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items
• In the winter season, at All-India level, the rainfall during the week i.e. 07th February, 2019 – 13th February, 2019 has been 142% higher than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 263% in North West India, 34% in South Peninsula, 18% in East & North East India but lower than LPA by 69% in Central India.
• The cumulative rainfall in the country during the winter season i.e. 01st January, 2019 to 13th February, 2019 has been 13% higher than LPA. Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period have been higher than LPA by 60% in North West India & 18% in South Peninsula but lower than LPA by 68% in East & North East India &
54% in Central India.
• For winter season 01.01.2019 to 13.02.2019 out of 36 met sub-divisions, 11 met sub-divisions constituting 33% of the total area of the country has received large excess/excess rainfall, 7 met sub-divisions constituting 20% of the total area of the country has received normal rainfall, 14 met sub-divisions constituting 38% of the total area of the country has received deficient/large deficient rainfall, 4 met sub-divisions constituting 9 of the total area of the country has received no rain.
• Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 161.99 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Out of these, 76 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 120.44 BCM have irrigation potential. Live storage in the 91 major reservoirs as on 14th February, 2019 has been 66.26 BCM as against 63.96 BCM on 14.02.2018 (last year) and 69.17 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 104% of last year’s storage and nearly 96% of average of last 10 year’s storage.
• The All Commodities inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of January, 2019, decreased to 2.76% from the level of 3.80% in the month of December, 2018. The inflation rate was 3.02% during the corresponding period of last year.
• The Primary Articles inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of January, 2019, increased to 3.54% from the level of 2.28% in the month of December, 2018. The inflation rate was 2.53% during the corresponding period of last year.
• The wholesale price index for non-food items decreased to 4.06% from the previous month’s level of 4.45% and for the food items stood at 2.34% from the previous month’s level of (-) 0.07%.
• Among the foodgrains, inflation as per wholesale price index of Wheat increased to 9.94% from the previous month’s level of 9.61%, pulses to 7.55% from the previous month’s level of 2.11%
and Cereals to 7.95% from the previous month’s level of 7.59%. The inflation for Paddy has decreased to 2.93% from the previous month’s level of 3.97%.
• As per latest information available on sowing of Rabi crops, around 98.1% of the normal area under Rabi crops has been sown upto 15.02.2019. Area sown under all rabi crops taken together has been reported 617.83 lakh hectares at All India level as compared to 643.60 lakh hectares in the corresponding period of last year and 634.26 lakh ha. normal area as on date.
• All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 15.02.2019 for 2018-19 was at 348.24 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 291.42 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year.
The procurement of wheat for the Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2018-19 was 357.95 lakh tonnes which was higher than the procurement of 308.24 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of RMS 2017-18.
1. Winter Season (January – February) during the week ending 13th February, 2019
➢ Sub-Division wise Weekly Rainfall Forecast is shown in Table-1.1
• Rainfall during the week (07th February, 2019 to 13th February, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 13 met sub-divisions, normal in 4 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 13 sub-divisions and no rain in 6 met sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
• Cumulative rainfall (01st January, 2019 to 13th February, 2019) Rainfall was large excess/excess in 11 met sub-divisions, normal in 7 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 14 sub-divisions and no rain in 4 met sub-divisions out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions.
Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table -1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st January, 2019 to 13th Feb., 2019
Source: IMD
➢ Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 15th Feb., 2019 to 19th Feb., 2019 is shown in Table 1.4
1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Goa and Gujarat.
South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Kerala, A & N islands and Lakshadweep.
East & North East India - Bihar, Jharkhand , West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Region Week Ending (13.02.2019) Cumulative (01.01.19 to 13.02.19)
(in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
(in mm) Devi-
ation (%)
Cate- gory
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West India 30.5 8.4 263 LE 84.0 52.6 60 LE
Central India 0.7 2.1 -69 LD 5.3 11.7 -54 D
South Peninsular India 2.0 1.5 34 E 12.1 10.2 18 N
East & North-East India 7.2 6.1 18 N 11.2 34.7 -68 LD
Country as a whole 11.1 4.6 142 LE 31.8 28.0 13 N
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1st January to 12 FEB
2014
11 FEB 2015
10 FEB 2016
15 FEB 2017
14 FEB 2018
13 FEB 2019 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 07 06 13
- 14 06 20
- 03 02 05
04 05 04 13
02 03 02 07
07 04 07 18 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
04 - 17 02 23
09 - 07 00 16
09 - 17 05 31
04 13 - 06 23
07 20 - 02 29
03 11 - 04 18
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 4% (-) 13% (-) 64% 9% (-) 58% 13%
Table: 1.1
Source: IMD
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2019 Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 14 FEB 15 FEB 16 FEB 17 FEB 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS D D D D D D D
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH D ISOL FWS$ FWS$ SCT ISOL D
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D D SCT $ SCT $ ISOL ISOL D
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL SCT $ SCT $ ISOL ISOL ISOL D
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D ISOL$ SCT $ D D D D
7 ODISHA D ISOL$ SCT $ # ISOL D ISOL D
8 JHARKHAND D SCT $ # SCT D D D D
9 BIHAR ISOL SCT $ # SCT $ D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH FWS$ # FWS$ # ISOL D D D ISOL
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH FWS$ # FWS$ # ISOL D ISOL ISOL ISOL
12 UTTARAKHAND FWS$ # FWS$ # ISOL D SCT FWS WS●
13 HARYANA, CHD. & DELHI WS● $ # FWS D D ISOL SCT FWS
14 PUNJAB WS● $ # SCT D D ISOL SCT FWS
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH WS● $ # FWS D ISOL FWS$ # WS● WS●●
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR WS● $# FWS D SCT WS$ # WS● WS●●
17 WEST RAJASTHAN ISOL$ # D D D D ISOL SCT
18 EAST RAJASTHAN SCT $ # ISOL D D D ISOL ISOL
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH SCT $ # ISOL D D D ISOL SCT#
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH SCT $ # SCT $ # ISOL D D D SCT#
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D D ISOL
23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D D D D D ISOL ISOL#
25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D ISOL ISOL#
26 VIDARBHA D ISOL$ # ISOL D D D ISOL
27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL SCT $ # SCT D D D ISOL
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH D D ISOL$ ISOL ISOL ISOL D
29 TELANGANA D ISOL$ # ISOL D D ISOL ISOL
30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D
31 TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY D ISOL ISOL$ ISOL$ ISOL ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D ISOL D
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA D ISOL ISOL D D ISOL D
35 KERALA D ISOL ISOL$ ISOL$ D ISOL ISOL
36 LAKSHADWEEP D D D D D ISOL ISOL
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
FOG * SNOWFALL #HAILSTORM + HEAT WAVE (+4.5 OC to +6.4 OC) ++ SEVERE HEAT WAVE (> +6.4)
$ THUNDERSTORM WITH SQUALL/GUSTY WIND DS/TS DUST/THUNDERSTORM -COLD WAVE (-4.5 OC to -6.4 OC) --SEVERE COLD WAVE (< -6.4)
Table: 1.4
Source: IMD
2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 14.02.2019)
• The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 91 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 161.99 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
• Live Storage in 91 major reservoirs decreased to 66.26 BCM from the previous week’s level of 68.75 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than the last year’s storage position of 63.96 BCM and lower than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 69.17 BCM.
Table – 2.1 : For 91 major reservoirs of the country
Period Storage as % of FRL
Storage as % of last year
Storage as % of 10 year’s average level
Current Week Last Week
41 42
104 103
96 95
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 39% on 14/02/2018, 45% on 14/02/2017, 36% on 11/02/2016 and 46% on 12/02/2015.
Source: CWC
There were 61 reservoirs having storage more than 80% of normal storage, 10 reservoirs having storage between 51% to 80%, 15 reservoirs having storage between 31% to 50%, 5 reservoirs having storage upto 30% of Normal Storage and 1 reservoir having no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
3. Fertilizer Position:
Table – 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Rabi 2018-19 (As on 14.02.2019)
(in ‘000 tonnes)
Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2018 468 580 46 670 133
Requirement for Rabi 2018-19 15114 4922 1655 4794 2780
Cumulative Requirement during October to February 2019
13707 4514 1498 4178 2434
Cumulative Receipt upto 14.02.2019 12773 3732 1081 3922 1424 Cumulative Availability upto 14.02.2019 13241 4312 1126 4593 1557
Cumulative Sales upto 14.02.2019 12647 3119 835 2987 1392
Closing Stock as on 14.02.2019 595 1193 292 1606 165
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW) / Deptt. of Fertilizer
4. Pest & Diseases:
• Incidence of Late blight on potato reported low to moderate at Agra, Mathura and Hathras, districts of Uttar Pradesh. The crop stage is tuber formation stage.
• Incidence of Fall Armyworm on Maize reported moderate in few plots at Perambalur district of Tamilnadu.
The crop is late whorl stage.
• Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL).
• No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported from any State / UT.
5. Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.
6.
All India Crop Situation – Rabi (2018-19) as on 15.02.2019
Table: 6.1
7.
Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items
Table: 7.1
Inflation (year on year)
Period / Commodities Weight Jan-2019 Dec-2018 Jan-2018
All Commodities 100 2.76 3.80 3.02
Primary Articles 22.62 3.54 2.28 2.53
(a) Food Articles 15.26 2.34 -0.07 3.15
Cereals 2.82 7.95 7.59 -1.98
Paddy 1.43 2.93 3.97 4.59
Wheat 1.03 9.94 9.61 -6.94
Pulses 0.64 7.55 2.11 -30.43
Gram 0.26 4.69 -4.05 -40.31
Arhar 0.13 11.23 10.04 -18.34
Moong 0.07 12.12 11.11 -6.27
Masur 0.05 0.63 -4.37 -21.35
Urad 0.09 7.58 1.90 -31.50
Vegetables 1.87 -4.21 -17.55 40.77
Potato 0.28 26.30 48.68 8.68
Onion 0.16 -65.60 -63.83 193.89
Fruits 1.60 -4.53 -3.69 9.87
Milk 4.44 2.21 2.43 3.93
Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 5.47 4.55 0.37
(b) Non-Food Articles 4.12 4.06 4.45 -1.31
Oilseeds 1.12 8.59 8.97 2.00
Fuel & Power 13.15 1.85 8.38 4.73
8.
Progressive procurement of Rice as on 15.02.2019
Table: 8.1
(lakh tonnes)
State Target in marketing
season 2018-19 (Oct. – Sept.)
Progressive Procurement as on 15.02.2019
In Marketing season 2018-2019
In Marketing season 2017-2018
Andhra Pradesh 30.00 25.35 23.50
Telangana 15.00 27.06 12.23
Bihar 8.00 2.86 3.43
Chhattisgarh 40.00 40.80 32.07
Haryana 39.75 39.09 39.92
Jharkhand 2.50 0.57 0.72
Kerala 2.00 0.77 1.01
Madhya Pradesh 13.00 13.95 11.00
Maharashtra 4.00 2.84 1.40
Odisha 30.00 29.31 18.28
Punjab 114.00 113.30 118.39
Tamil Nadu 8.00 5.30 0.73
Uttar Pradesh 33.00 30.60 27.78
Uttrakhand 5.00 4.58 0.37
West Bengal 23.00 11.25 0.18
All-India 370.00 348.24 291.42
