The changing demographic patterns across the world as outlined above need to be seen in the context of the phenomenon of globalisation and the development of the world economy. Also important are the economic and social objectives of governments and organisations such as the World Bank and UNESCO.
4.4.1 Globalisation and the Development of the World Economy
Much has been written about globalisation, about what it is, where it came from and where it is going. For the purpose of this chapter we take globalisation as given.
Globalisation includes the increasing trade in goods and services across national boundaries. It involves the rapid movement of cash and capital around the world to support that international trade. It includes the increasing movement of people across national boundaries supported by improved transport infrastructures. This interna- tional trade and movement of people are in turn promoted by the rapid development of information and communications technology (ICT). Globalisation changes eco- nomic and political power balances between regions of the world, with major implications for economic and social welfare. Regions of the world are in compe- tition with each other; some regions are benefiting in terms of economic growth, other regions have so far not been so successful. Social unrest and terrorism, poor
health and disease are never far from the surface, particularly in those regions with poor records for both economic performance and political governance.
Globalisation has important direct and indirect implications for education.
Education is itself a service which can now be traded across national boundaries.
As identified above, an increasing number of students from the developing world are enrolling for higher education in the developed world. Educational institutions are also franchising their degrees and qualifications to institutions in the devel- oping world to enable students to study in their home countries (Bennell and Pearce2003). Such activities yield much needed revenue for the institutions and, for the countries concerned, this revenue constitutes valuable export earnings, with the potential to replace some of the exports lost for existing goods and services to other regions of the world. Data from Universities UK (2008) show that the income of higher educational institutions from non-EU domiciled students rose from £445 m in 1994/5 to £1,713 m in 2006/7. Data from the UK Office of National Statistics (2008) show that the value of the UK educational exports rose from £1.1 billion in 1987 to £3.8 billion in 2007.
More indirectly, education is influenced by the changing demand for skilled human resources from companies operating in national and international markets.
McKinsey consultants talk of a ‘‘war for talent’’ between companies, the competition between companies to recruit people with the skills (technical and behavioural) needed in increasingly global markets. Companies face a demographic landscape dominated by the looming retirement of the ‘baby boomer’ generation in the developed world and by a dearth of young people entering the workforce in Western Europe. Question marks remain over the appropriateness of the talent in many emerging markets. Surveys of companies reveal concerns about poor English language skills, dubious educational qualifications and cultural issues such as a reluctance to take leadership roles in job applicants from the developing countries (McKinsey2008).
4.4.2 The Economic and Social Objectives of Governments, the World Bank and UNESCO
Underpinning initiatives such as EFA is a belief that improving the quality and availability of education will result in reduced unemployment, improved health and engaged citizens. This in turn leads to economic growth and social cohesion.
However, the relationship between education, the development of technical and vocational skills relevant for employment, economic growth, sustainable devel- opment and social stability are complex (King 2009; Little and Green 2009).
Education may be seen as a public good, valuable in its own right, providing the individual with the skills for a healthy and fulfilling life. But to improve the individual’s employment prospects, education must provide the skills, both tech- nical and behavioural, which are required by employers.
King (2009) examines the relationship between EFA and technical and voca- tional skills development (TVSD). There is no automatic connection amongst school, skill and work. The question, therefore, is about the nature of enabling environments in which EFA and TVSD can lead to sustainable poverty reduction and economic growth. Arguably, EFA is unsustainable if it fails to lead to eco- nomic progress. The discourse within organisations such as UNESCO has there- fore shifted to ‘‘Education for Sustainable Development‘‘ (ESD). As a result of the World Summit for Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in 2002, a decade of ESD was declared from 2005 to 2014 with UNESCO in the lead. ESD has four elements.
• Improving access to quality basic education.
• Reorienting existing education programmes.
• Developing public understanding and awareness.
• Providing training.
King (2009) critiques the UNESCO approach arguing that it lacks any analysis of how ESD can lead to economic growth and how developing countries can avoid long-term aid dependency. Little and Green (2009) examine the issue of sustain- able development in the context of globalisation. They address the issue of the role of the nation state in a globalised world and they raise the question concerning whether failed states, corruption and mismanagement of economic resources are at the heart of much poverty.
To these issues may be added the risk of a ‘‘brain drain’’ from developing nations as migration increases and as competition for talent becomes more intense.
Nations which cannot retain their better educated and skilled individuals will struggle to achieve economic growth even if they can conceptualise a route to it.
The World Bank (2007) sees the link between investment in young people and economic growth in the developing world in terms of the demographic window of opportunity created by the falls in the relative size of the youth population aged 12–24 compared with those aged 25–60 and the accompanying fall in the dependency ratio (referred to above). The argument is that many developing countries can anticipate over the next 30 years an increase in their working populations which can provide a platform for economic growth. Investment in young people now will therefore reap rich dividends in the years to come. The World Bank cites research which suggests that much of the higher growth achieved by East Asia over Latin America from 1965 to 1990 can be attributed to the faster growth of its working population and better policies for trade and human capital development (Bloom and Canning 2005). Sound investment in primary education alone contributed about one-third of the growth rate of the East Asian boom economies between 1960 and 1985 (World Bank1993). But, as noted above, the window of opportunity for Sub-Saharan Africa is yet to open. This means that there is time to plan for it, but it also means, if the World Bank is right, that economic growth in this region may lag the rest of the developing world for many years to come.
Demographic change therefore takes place in the context of some complex economic, political and social issues. These changes and issues present major challenges for educational institutions engaging in the internationalisation of education provision. Before turning to those challenges we need to be clear about the objectives of institutions of higher education in the pursuit of an international strategy.