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./0 (&123 D ,$K " (MAM + ,- ( ,$$%&

2 "

#$%&

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*=

! ; .

* A

' ( */0 O 7 3 G 3 ! #$%& G *= #C '#$%&

! ./0 (&123 EI * GP ( G .

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A)F2 ./0 (&123 G *= #C R N0 ( #$%&

. ,$$%& ./0 G 3 : N * * A

&

!

Governing of arrangements among states)

./0 " * " ? (N& S3 (= " (0 J ( (

; P* A =1 3 ,$K " ;+ C

= A) .

*FT : N6 ( '

+ , 9& ,$$%& ./0

& E ,$$%& "

! UE3 ? ,! ! V A (=

&

A)= ,3 WXC .

Y *E

,3 %6 Z ,$$%& ./0

(Generic Sense)

+ ; XF! # [3 (= ! */0 A3 Q TX3

G A%F! ! -

- *3P T%? " ! -

* J ,3 *I ]^SK + .

Q TX3 T0P

,@* ( ? _ *` T?

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! A0* ,3 = ( a * .

G [[53 ,@*

8 0

3 -C G *%F& ,@* b @ ,? @ ! ! _ *` T? Q TX3 A0* ,3 - ,F

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;A A ,$$%& ./0 A)H *

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G 3 : N * "* A * 3 ' 2 0 "AE c

&

Y *E ,$$%& ./0 G ,%0 .

*=

. ./0 " * ,0 )= " 7 [ * ,-F3 (&123

! * + ,$K " ;+ C :

- ,! ! (0+ 3 d -

e: AI ,3 /0

- T0 "A3P = ,0 T? 3 * A ,$$%& "

)

" A3 3 -C (

e

- ec B 0PA7 f) * d ;A .T! 8

-

`= (% *` ; d ,0 T? " ( 3*! " FI " * 0 g^

.

# & ( eGP h G 3 ! h ./0 ,)E @ O 7 3 N #$%& (FB R 5

! * . :*i= #$%& Q /0 ,)E " *= = j H H .

( */0 (k * + " - './0 (&123 ,%/0 , #$6 ( ! #$%& "

*=

; A0 : (= 2 & k G *? (

#$%& ,$K A) *E3

c @ ! '

,)E 'Q TX3

"

3

"(0+

(k

*=

A0 ; . l *m + #$%& Q /0 ./0 (= A)0P* 2 & k

(0+ 3 ) A AT (0+ 3 'Q*0 (0+ 3 ' h! (0+ 3 ': AI (0+ 3 eGP Y$Fh3 R -B (...

AB A @ d .

(3)

2 & *N &

* @ : */0 ',$$%& _S! ./0 d " * - (k

"

0

" T A))= ,3 8=*%

. 6 0 c%= ( (= A)0P* R *N &

, ,%! " T0 + b @

. )= A ! ,$$%& ./0 ( . 0 ,3 ,$@ ,$$%& ,%! * M .

(= , T0

,3 89 ? " -% * ,)FN3 F l ` : AI ( , F! *! * 8 F! A)0

= A)) .

90 ;+ !

* ( - ./0 (&123 N G

"

" ;A ,F EI * ./0 ,6 %F? (N)? *

GP (=

A))= ,3 ( - ; P ? ( .

" (E3 ? ,$$%& Q /0 'G 90 ;+ ! ; JA +

" GP (= !

"A)

&

G J 0 J " ;+ C Z*F`3 : *[3 d) (

G `F= `3 n*B

! Q /0 .

" 3* M : AI #$%& T? % (

A)0 ,3 % 8k C ,$$%& Q /0 " 3 : AI )=

.

,! ! Q /0 ,0 T? FI (= (F-0 * A =1 #$%& ,! ! FI *- ,%0 ,$$%&

A? A)0 A0 B # $5 *9 A- + .

% ( */)3 + ./0 (&123 N T?

Q TX3 '#$%& ,! ! FI (0 J (! "

"

& A6

"

3 ./0 + @ # $5

A))= ,3 ]*S3 G B*/0 .

; JA N T? Q TX3 N! % ( Y$Fh3 "

G )6 5 . A 8J* #$%& ,! ! FI

"

53 & A6 ./0

"

. + * ,3 G A .

(3 3 (0 J TH * + c * ,$ $5 E F -B 8

./0 (&123 n N

G #$%& Q /0 o@ B

#$%& Q /0 ./0 (&123 N j $S3 " 9& "

B ,3 # $5 .

; JA */)3 + ,F2 & k "

,! ! ( : AI G+ G ,3 '#$%&

! ! G 0 I * " ) `= G 3 .

: AI (0+ 3 '#$%& ! !

p* ./0 ,0 3 ; : K (

* J ,3 *I */0 3 ,$$%& p*3 .

#K

E

* ,)FN3 ! ! ;A))=

, 6 & 'G+

G 3 : AI O 7 3

&

"

! ,) 3+*!

.

* ! G F GP A3 ( (= ! " A%F! ! *) G )H Q8$F23 G+ *-$%6

G 3+ ,3 % ,! ! : /C^3

@ ! : AI : /C^3 >

. . AX qA! " (0 3 +

0 WXC " * & M g ; *F2J ,$-B ( #K c AE ( r0 20

" 0 ./

A0 ; P %B ( c B 0P .

#K

"

I (0+ 3

"

A0A 3 0 . * ) ' Q [3 (0+ 3 %

GA ` A0 " * ,B

#%6 (` A0 " (N)? + " 2 & I ,$$%& ./0 ;

! ;AB ,$dF3 (FBLJ R ! 2 #$%&

.

= A)0P* G *9EI 0 E7 (

,3 ([$S3 : AI c R NI *9 " `= X& h3 ? 3 ,$$%& ,B 0P B

. d0P +

(4)

+ *F I " `= (= A)B D%S3 A)0 ,%0 Y E7 " `= (=

$ I ( @ * * "

; B

"

; " dF2? 'A))-0 ; XF! A) B @ 0

*-$%6 F@ ! A53 " * ,

I " `=

A) P ,3 * "

. NT l *m + .T3

$ I

" 5 # -` ,3 /0 "

! R C # I ,E A .

f)? @ >X0 ( : AI (0+ 3 " d ? " * A5F3 , J

,3 + MP A))=

) ' &

190:1382

.(

AB * , [F0 : AI (0+ 3 ,F)! ( */0 e

(-) ($%? +

3 u 5& ( Q TX3

*! ? 3 ,! )B )E B ,3 ,%J

» ($ ! w * + ! E3 0

A0 ? : AI (2 [3 , B+ '"* J ;+ A0 " * %F6 # I .

* + ! ,EI * M

&

A0 g^

A))= G *N? GP G E3 0 "* * G *I VA

«

) , *k

'V *J8F&

70:1376

.(

N6 (

*9 :

' 2 0 oh`3 (= ! GP : AI G+ ( */0 Q T

A P ,3 ? ( " 3 (H + G+

. G 3 : AI . 2[ ; 50 ' ? : AI G+ ,FI

&

! (0 9H .

Q /0 G *9 + ( */0 ,3 */0 A3 ? , AC ,$$%&

* J

G ,%0 ;A) (0+ 3 &

(F

"

*J */0 (F A?

. ,F)! ( */0 * ; [F0

G A)%` A0 + ,@* AB N! : AI (0+ 3 ( & G XF! A)0 % #$%&

: AI (0+ 3 ( */0 A & + G )6 5 #$%&

"

A AT (0+ 3

"

A0+ *z .

* "

GP

(= !

&

0 : AI (0+ 3 , " * (= : AI , " * T) (

,3 *I* -BP A AT A))=

. ( */0 T? % (

"

A AT (0+ 3

"

(0+ 3 ( */0 " ? (

,3 ]*S3 : AI A)=

) '*90 105:1386

: AI (0+ 3 ( */0 $S3 * G 6{ %7 & G XF! .(

GP* ',0 )= #$%& Q /0

(= !

A 5 d ,N$m (0+ 3 ( (= , A AT (

V*m ,3 *d)3 # [3 "

B , = (? ' B

.

& */0 ( '

G 8 3 + ,E : A AT

: AI

Aggregate Power)

: d3 '( Proximity)

,%? T : AI '( Offensive Capability)

(

,%? T : 0

Offensive Intentions)

! ( ) ' &

200:1382

.(

(FN&

.T3 YE7 (S[0 *

! A AT : AI GAB #k I 8 % GP , 0 QA6 '( */0 .

*9 V*m + '

( */0

! A)3 ! *F` ,$$%& ,NSIA)H Q /0 A AT (0+ 3 e

( */0 ',NSI c G T? 3

,%0 A AT (0+ 3 AB A)3 ! G A)H A0

. * + #$%& Q /0 : AI 8=*% AI *

"A)%0 ( * , + I & : N0 ( * A AT P* *S@ 'AB *F`

GP "

A @ *F` &

. (0+ 3 G 3 8 % F + ? 3 #$%& Q /0 G ,NSI c

AB A @ : AI (0+ 3 A AT

Vasquez and Elman, 2003: 16)

.(

G A)%` A0 + ,@*

, '| :* A)0 % #$%&

.

"

. R k ...

A & + ( '

: AI (0+ 3 ( */0 G )6 5 #$%&

"

Q*0 (0+ 3

"

(F@ * A0 . G A)%` A0

G )6 5 : AI G+ ,F)! ( */0

"

h! (0+ 3

"

" L93 0

*=

A0 . : X 8 0

(5)

(0+ 3 d ,3 /0 " * 0 * A =1 ( *F`

- h! (0+ 3 -

GP + ; XF! QA6

{ h Q*0 (0+ 3

*N

*J ,3 * (0+ 3 d 0 "

.

#-B ,0 3+ h! (0+ 3

(= * J ,3

&

I & { X0 : AI # [3 A)! ,3 (d F0 ( Y E7 "

"

A)F2 . + ' ! ! Q A T? $23 : AI ( G ;+ ? () 8 T0P G %J (

g* L # I * M (S$! * * 3 [3 () 8

(Pape, 2005: 36) ! .

= " * ,3 /0* M . [F23* M g^

, 0

@ : AI 8 * * : AI "

' $23 : AI (S$! = " * B ,3 ;A 3 0 Q*0 (0+ 3

. d VA '| ; JA lNm

,3 Q*0 (0+ 3 20 . [F23 ($ [3 G A "*N R C & *-$%6 G *= ,i)@ G

.

0+ 3 [ 3 E3 U

F! ! GAB (FB LJ )= T) 'Q*0 ,

2 0 : AI* } ! + e

(-$

~C

&

} (0+ 3 V^Fk *

*J

• @ E3 8 0 : AI* ( $6 A @

Paul, )

2005: 37

.(

*FT : N6 (

*J (0+ 3 (H

•!*F! + A h0 I Q*0

G 3 : AI

( A V

; = @ b @ •3 /0 A)= }* J $? :A3

e

•3 3 () 8 A0

} GP + ; XF!

} `= AE 8 0 A 8 AI

} -% } * •& %FC G 3

;A) P

A @ =

. ,3 ,E! Q*0 ;A) (0+ 3 & " * * h! *B d A)=

() 8 8 l *m + ^Fk "*N R C g* L QA6 €*m + ? 3 >7 WXC "

,) 3+*!

Territorial Denial) (

F@ A0 * J ,! %$z ' Entangling Diplomacy)

'(

: AI [

" FI

Economic Strengthening)

(0+ 3 " * ! Q86 '( Signals of Resolve to Balance)

(

A))= Q AI

(Pape, 2005: 36-37)

.

: AI (0+ 3 " ; = n N . R ,&A N

n (! * ',$$%& ./0

A =1 ; = :

» Y&

( + "* J $? ( ,$$%& Q /0 #= : AI ,3 %6 (0+ 3 ?

A)= ,3 c%= G *9 * : AI c (N$M (S! * 9%& 6 " *z3 ( Q /0 (& 5F!

.

+ c w A ,3 (3 @ " [ ( (0+ 3 (= ,3 9) : AI

G -3 • 8 "

A0 + " - ( ,0 T? 3 -C "+ ! * .

j ( WXC ( : AI ,$53 (0+ 3 ?

R^[F!

&

,$53 * * : AI jL? # [3 b @ lm )3 >I "

e

* + ( F

! ; *= c%= GP (S$!

. p ( 'A0 (FB ? : AI ,$53 ,3 %6 (0+ 3 * ?*

S *B , ./0 (= , T0 * ! 'GP 5 (= A0 (F@ ! . * A6 23 T0P ( ,$$%&

,9F2 )

€ [C 'f)? ',! %$z

* A3 '#$%&

: AI

• 8 "

(

#%6 : AI

(F A0

«

) 'R 94:1380

.(

(6)

* (-) %7 8F&

&

: AI ./0 ;+ C ,$K G *9 + G )6 ( • 8 "

: Nƒ #3 6 : AI (0+ 3 'A)= ,3 A = ,$$%& )3 , *E3 ,$$%& Q /0 h

,3

=

! ,$$%& Q /0 G c B 0P + ,B 0 (= A) .

(= ! * 8F&

Q /0 "

+ *F%= G 8 3 ( „… %FC ,NSI Q /0

f)? ,%/0 , H ,NSIA)H "

;A%6 "

,3 A0 B

Waltz, 1979: 118-127)

.(

+ 53 (0+ 3 ./0 ; JA ;A -H 2 & k */)3

,3

%0 (K^@ * + R A? G :

K O 1 -

, ' 89 + a

7

<

"9

@ < 9 %P -

7 "?

$ 03E' <

7 "? @ < 9 EZ0

7 "? @ < 9 7 "? @ < 9 H

(0+ 3 N0

: AI

" 53 &

> + : AI * * 0

G 3

&

. + ,F& * M G *9

G JA) %0

&

A)F2

&

, 0 "

,& * * 0 G 2- Y † .

#K C "+

*XK >%?

,JA))= E - F@ !

*B c B 0P : AI (0+ 3 WXC

)3 [ T?

>N)3 ) : ',k 7 94:1388 (

#$%& R *N & : *-X 2 &P ;A ƒP ,0 T? f)? ;

# #C ()T= " *7 * M q B f)? A0 A[FE3 (= – V^F@

"

&

– ! A ! @ p ( .

* ,)FN3 " ( */0 * 8=*%F3 (= R *N & , *J T0 U */0 (-0P

AB ]*m Q ,0 T? f)? + r ' " ([S)3 , *9%

. 0

@ " ([S)3 , *9% ( */

; JA qA0* J*

# [F3 ,9F2 : m N ', *J *= = 0 ', *J *= = "

. ]*m

3 " ( */0 8

(= AB N!

&

(0 *9EI " (` A0 A0 F .2 & *N A`- & H (

.

($C*3 " ^ 3 F` U ! b h (&123

"

0 AB . AE ( G 3+ +

( */0 T† A B '#$%& : . ‡ U */0 (= A A? ,

,$$%& "

.2 & *N & 0 R *N & 0 , *J T0 U */0

AB ,3 #3 B

) 'G *9 " 0 ' = 'w 1375

.(

.T3 + ,$$%& " T0 2 & *N & */)3 +

*9 + *

,$$%& Q /0 (K*6 G

)=

&

A0 B ,3 j 253 .

A)0 ,3 ,$$%& " T0 (= A)0P* G + * ( */0

* ƒ

"

.T3 A)B (FB ,$$%& ./0 `= (0 ? " -% F * .

(-0P %7 T0P

#k I #$%& ! ! #[F23 ,$$%& " T0 " * )F2

'A (= A)0P*

" T0

(7)

`= F ,$$%& a F0 ' `= : 5 ?* : AI > )3 + #[F23 ',$$%&

,3 E

A))=

) '" P+ * ,0 [ 575:1377

.(

GP* = :*

(= !

» [0 * .2 & *N &

* ; ,E%? "* J . % * " LJ* ƒ " * *` (= , T0 A = ' ! ; T0 ,

,3 A)=

.

" F@ ! ( (? *F` * ˆ R C ,! ! " A0 % ( .2 & *N &

* L 0* ˆ ; ! e

G 8 + *` R %FC .= ! (= ! ,-F3 [F6 *

'*` 3 ( n *3 " T0 (

* ˆ A)= ,3 * ˆ "*` : 3 AI R N0 (d F0 (= "

,3 ? A0 : /F0 >7

F * ! -%3 A P

&

* ƒ , l %6

L9

(Keohane, 1989: 10-11) « .

./0 ,$$%& " T0 [0 * 8=*% j H H

A0 *= ]*m ,$$%& " . ‡ ( */0 2 & *N & ',$$%&

.

& *N & */)3 + 2

» . ‡ R *N & 0 R *N & , *J T0 45 (3 >I ,$$%& "

! .

# $5 (`

! , *J *= = # [F3 ,9F2 ', *9%

«

) ',0 @*926 72:1383

.(

. ‡

#k 23 (%

8 G )6 ( A0 ; *= A Q TX3 #$%& Q /0 (C *S3

"

" * A X3

" -% d

G 3

&

,3 #%6 A))=

. . ‡ ,3 c%= ;+ *3 A))=

+ " 2 #$%&

;+ C A0 B . /) & E "

. A)0 3 O )F3 ,6 7 3 ;*F2J . ‡ T? % (

;+ C

" FI '*` € [C ', * h3 , m N ',S 53 2 + ',F )3 "

...

& E

,3 A))=

. . ‡ d : *7 c B 0P Q /0 "*S@ ; % (= ! T? +

" *F! (= ? ,$$%&

" *F! ',F I "

*ƒ , " -% * ,)FN3 "

@ ! A @ .

* ) '

" *F! + "* J $? T0P VA (= ! (0 ? I "

*9 3

A0 B ,3 j 253 c B 0P '" F@ ! Q /0 ,0^[6 !

) '#F &

706:1383

.(

2 & *N & "+ * ( */0 " F!

; 9 ? ,$$%& " T0 n N P0

T ./0

',$$%&

* A ;A G T? 3

Global Governance)

+ ,- ( ( c + *F%= (

,! ! : 6 7 3 (E& S3

AB # AN *! f)? + AE b @ ( #$%&

.

;‡

* A 3

;+ 3P ‰ ! * *! f)? G *= = * G 38% G T?

GAB ,0 T? "

.2 & *N &

AB , A0 3 ! .

* A ',! ! */0 + G %0 G T?

! ! (K*6 , A0 3 ! g *J

,6 %F? €*m ( #$%&

* ,6 %?

*

! . : AI* I (= *! f)? V^@*

( ! ,0 T? " T0 * b @ T0P * ;A)-

;AB .= C ,N *3 ($2$! ./0 , *J

Barnett, Smith and Duvall, 2005)

.(

,! * (F * L : K "

! ($

# $5 3 */)3 (! + Q TX3 'G A)%` A0

! (F *J *I :

a

&

* A 3

* A */)3 + e;A A c G )6 ( ,0 T?

3 ,0 T?

" d) T0 2 " F! ,E%? : 3 AI ( *† 0 ,$$%&

!

#$6 (=

(8)

A)= ,3 Q*0 (d) ! ,$3 * ,$3 #k 23 j $S3 0 " A3 .

* A 3 ( ,0 T?

A */)3 + e;‡ * c G )6

* 3 ,0 T? ./0 AB G )6 ( ,0 T?

) R *N &

( B ,3 ]*S3 .

F@ ! & I ,0 T? b @ #k 23 * A3 A (= A)0P* G A)%` A0

"

> ! + *

*= dF2? ,0 T? ./0 .

* A 3

* A */)3 + e,0 T? ; JA G )6 ( ,0 T?

3

A? ,$ $5 g*90 G )6 ( ,0 T?

B ,3 ]*m A

Boli and Tomas, 1999)

.(

GP* = :*

(= !

: Y&

(

* A 3 ,3 ,0 T?

& E G )6 ( G

G 3+ !

*J */0 ,$$%& ,& 3 " T0 #$3 G 3+ ! * /0 ,$$%& "

. j (

* A

,3 ,0 T? 3 0 ,0 T? 3 -C " * " () 3+ G

*J */

. p ( 3 * A

,0 T? * A3 " * " T0 : % % ( ,)%7 m ( (= ! "*- . c ,0 T?

A)= ,3 A =1 GAB

(Keohane, 2001:3)

U0+ 3 l *m + (` % ./0 'R *N & " (` A0 */)3 + .

* J ,%0 (%`H*! : AI e

: N * + " + " ( … G 3 :^3 E + (-$

,)E '.= C

,3 ,$$%& " . ‡ 8 0 " T0 : *[3 ';AB l " d) 0 I AB

) 'Q I 243:1384

c%= .F2 ! : Nƒ ./0 ( " -% d + r ,$$%& " . ‡ .(

,3 A))=

. /0 R*F)= ,$K " .F2 ! ,$$%& " . ‡ '#$%& Q /0 B ,0 ( .

,3 %B ( A0

. ,0 -3 " ;*F2J ,6 7 3 " ;+ C @ " %0 . ‡

A) ,3 G `0 #$%& Q /0 Y$Fh3

) ',%! I 139:1384

.(

» : K ( ',$$%& " T0

. ‡ : A E3 ' 0 I ' G 3+ !

c%= " -% " * Q+… *B GAB . * (

,3 A))=

.

* %F6 F … ( 2 H (S c Š[0 (-) q "A6 I FB T0 ,T `3 ! g @ U0 % =*C *J A h0 *I ,`= ;*T 3 (-) + &

A))= ,3 c%= *J A @ .

' NI *3 : /0 " * ,%! " = + ! " *I* T0

&

+ ! ,3 I

* ! A)) N A0

&

+ A)F2 " = (H Q d0 R ˆ`3

*k (0 % Q AI A0 3 A h0 G T) ,)-BAT6 (= A))= ,3 [ G ) %m '. l *m P A @ " % ,3 AI @ , ...

c%= : N! )3 ( GA `h %! T0

,3 F! " %B .= ‹*0 A))=

/F0 R C 6 A = & * " * ;A) P "

,3 [ A @ (3 ;A) P (S (= 3 & * A))=

«

) 'Y 471:1386

.(

*= (K^@ * + R A? G ,3 53 T0 ./0 & I 2 & *N & ; JA (K^@

:

(9)

O K 2 - 1 89 + a ,

"9 < 7

9 %P

7 "? @ <

9 $ 03E' <

7 "? @ <

9 EZ0

7 "? @ <

9 H

7 "? @ <

& " * +

>X0

-, hB

@ N0 (0 F!*

" -%

" 53 A)H * * „ N *[ > +

& G 3 : AI (6 %d3 + "

,F& * M G *9 +

T0

" . )= ,$$%&

&

>%? #K C "+

E * ˆF3

F@ ! ,JA))=

,JA Œ *B

" -% g*F2J

* ; T?

*F` (H

>N)3 ) : ',k 7 114:1388 (

AC 3 2 & k ; JA V^@ * 'G 90 ;+ ! */)3 + ,

( `3 Q /0 _S!

. F2 0 * #$%&

. 3 Y m + Y$Fh3 ,

&

,3 ,0 )= #$%& ./0 . 0

;A `3

= . ) .

&

,I*B " !P ,& %B " - *3P ', *M " * /0 (F *` R *N & "

e

&

(0 3 (= , `= *5K j )? " [ * P * /0 j )? " %EF! 2 "

*I

# +* 'A) ' H '( ! * /0 A0* J ,3 ...

.

&

'G A3 ` *B Q A= *

A0* J ,3 *I G A3 2 G A3 e

AC r

A)F2 0 ( `3 , .

* A

A )=

&

R *N & #$%& ./0 a * G -3 '(F *` R *N & "

. B (FB G 0 I * ,)FN3 .

- 3 * 8 +

»

* ƒ1 [0 ( (? T?

g+

F * d)

&

(

,3 c 80 .2 & *N &

,2 $90 F-3 ,$$%& (E3 ? ,6 0 ? ( [F6 T? + B

,3 A *I A)=

«

) 'Z ^=

9:1386

.(

F % *- ,

•, )E3 " 3 qA0+ ! *K )6 ( G 2-

Ideational)

,3 ,$$%& EI (

* ,3 R ! * + & ƒ 3 : { 'A

* GP ,0 J*J (= ! '

Q /0 & ! #$%& ! ! " 6 ,J

A0 *I # [F3 " J+ ! * ,)FN3 " (S & I '#$%&

. F@ ! */)3 +

, )E3 #3 6 : [F6 'Z*F`3 " Q /0 #3 B

g+

F@ ! " ( 8 0

* ƒ1 " 3 #3 6

"

A0 ,6 %F? ,! ! #%6 * A)3 * 0

) G % : 359

.(

A)0P* G 90 ;+ !

(=

»

„ F T0 : AI : *ƒ ' )3 ': AI ( # % G )6 ( > )3 ,3 /0 *† G )6 (

B ,3 ;A %T .

..

.

" 3 #3 6 G )6 ( T0 ; J ,FC > )3 : AI 3 «

" D */0A3

,3 *I ,F2 & *N & 0 (0 *9EI 0 "

J

* . ,& C (=

A G )6 5 ,3 TH #3 6 *

"

" ;A

*= ; B .

) ' 0 135:1385

.(

(= + * ,3 O 7 3 ( " 90 ;+ ! '( *

(10)

A0 [0 " 3 * † ( •#$6 - AC (H ;A .

,) - [0

#3 6 ;A

U&123 " 3

"

! (F *J ;A 0 GP „ A%6 #$%& ,$K G *? (= ! .T3 .

» E „ A%6 > )3 " F53 : AI " )E3

! ;A + , .

* ) ' -BP + r T)

*=

G

: * ƒ1 G ,3 (= ! > )3 : AI * ,)FN3 " N " * "* L G -3 ,) { *B , + 2 (= (0 J GP " 3 E

*=

«

) G % : 140

.(

0 " 90 ;+ !

»

g^ ?

* 0 ',6 %F? O 0 + , + E Nm " * ,%0 ;A 0 " 3 "

* J

«

) '; +* `3 1383 ' 122

.(

;A q*F2J '" 90 ;+ !

Q /0 , )E3 "

./0 # $5 " * " ( G )6 ( ,$$%&

T0P G ,3 ;A%6 m ( (= * J ,3 */0 g+

(= 20 ,0 T? ,3 %6 "

p ,FC ./0 Y E~ N! G B N0 g+

. * 46 A0 ,3 (= B ,3 ,

,)%B g*F2J ./0 G @

B . + =*3 Q /0 . A)%I^6 *J A)0P* T0P

&

? 3 A 'A)= ,3 = (0 9H

&

. )= Ž* .•$23 e

53 Q /0 ( */0 (= *H

46 = * + A)= # AN ($-`3 ( „^= & A0 ,%0 (&123 B ,3 O 7 3 * ˆ

" ( */0 + B ,3 # AN & ( */0 ( & q

. G *9`)= (= d0P +

"

A0 AEF3 E )3 'G * + + G ,%0 'A0 AEF3 > )3 * &…

,

U% ( G 2-

&

N20 .

E3 . " 3 . ': AI G H

! ,0 %FXJ , ) .

, ! #$%& ! ! " * .T3 8 %F3 ,$-`3 (= ./0 #-`3 ,B 0P .

, T`[0 O 0 ( ,9F2 (= AB (FB F@ ! O 0 (! A0 ,3 G^= _S! ,B 0P

$23 Q /0 (=

F2 A) . [0

(= G I ,)%B ',F! [0 + A) N6

( c *

A0 B ,3 *d)3 ,=… "8 ',F0 = " F@ ! * e

, %0+ * ,)FN3 * + + ,

B ,3 Y *E GP ‰ ! * @ & C (= A)F2 "*9

) ' 0 380:1384

.(

A)0P* G 90 ;+ !

8 %F3 f) * (! #I AC A0 ,3 ,B 0P (=

) ,F0 = ,=… '"8 (

3 (= AB (FB * ,)FN

[0 : XF3 )

,F! I ',)%B

( A)F2 .

[0 F@ !

, %0+

"

&

A))= ,3 A %0 "*9 @ + e

F@ ! G^= _S! 3

[0 lS)3 ' *J

A0 3 ,3 A G 3+ R m (= A0 P ,3 ! ( , .

() 3+

Z*F`3 f) * G *= ,0

! ($

&

: K ' A & + N? „ A%6 (= ,9) * "

,3

* : Nƒ 'A0 B ,3 A & + 6 *`3 (= , T0P * : Nƒ .= „… %E3 A0 B A)F2 . A) * P ,3 ,=… f) * d " * " ;8 90 "8 f) * * 3 •*3 "… ‹*0

@ Q A ,F0 = f) * %! ( =*C " * " ;8 90 @ U 0 ( ,=… f) * 0 `

P ,3 ? ( .

,$$%& " T0 + : AI (0+ 3 + „ 3 8& ./0 '; JA ‰ ! *

(11)

B ,%0 ,B 0 e

+ (-$

g+

B ,3 ,B 0 `= ,$$%& (E3 ? R K ,$@ "

.

./0 ; JA (K^@

;A `3 * + R A? G ,3 53 ;A

*=

:

K O 3 -

, E 89 + a

7

"9 <

9 %P

7 "? @ <

9 $ 03E' <

7 "? @ <

7 "? @ < 9 EZ0

9 H

7 "? @ <

G N0 .= C f) *

,F0 = (••••• (•••••?

" F@ ••••••!

, ••)E3 " ••3

••• Q •••/0

••$%&

# . Q ••I

(•N0 ? ,`h

F@ ••••••••!

8J = G *9 + •• *•• A•• =

•• % #•• & (•• ,••F&

(••0 ••T0P ,••$E ,h ••

T0P , { % .

•)Œ%

jL•••? "*•••/0 G •••-3 ,F& * M G *9 + .

O ••0 (••! ••?

e,••••B 0P F@ ••••!

"8 ••••• F@ •••••!

)

%B ( ,=… F@ ! '

) I ( ,F0 •= F@ ! '

)

! .(

3 q + G *9 + • > ) ! T0P #••••3 E A••••) *

,••3 (••F@ 3P A0 ••B

.

,F@ )B " F@ ! G ••)6 (•• Z*F`••3 '" ••3 > ••)3 *F2••

" *••• Q+… " •••)E3 . *•••• )••••=

,3 + ! .

>N)3 ) : ',k 7 126:1388 (

, N6 ( ! ! FI ,I^ (S[0 #$%& ,! ! FI

! + &

.

" (-NB ! : AI [E 8 0 ( 3*! ' ! ( 3*! [E FI *J

#3 E . ;A Œ )F2

A .

*/)3 + '#$%& ,! ! FI U0 J (! "

( 3*!

l *m + . "

&

+ * * .

&

& % ( A)= ,3 #%6 ,- #

$3 6 T0P * ˆ .T3 " (X& 3 + ,

Q /0 _S! ,%/0 , ./0 d .T3

,3 %B ( ,$$%&

.

T? % (

A

& > )3 * @ ,9) % * ƒ1

( 3*!

Q /0 ./0 (&123 ' T0P # [F3 > )3 ,JA ) . & I "

3 #$%&

*I ,! * .

G )6 5 GP + ;+ *3 (= A) P*

» FI GAB ,0 T?

« 'A0* ,3 Q 0

`[0 , X ,0 T? q*F2J " ( 3*! Q /0 g*F2J % G B

*=

! ; .

" !

"*9 + "* ˆ A) P* (-)

&

d

*=

,9$%? '* @ ; 3 "

8

,JA0+ GAB ,$3 * (= ! ; #$%& Q /0 UK*6 , … 5 1`)3 A) P* (= A)0P*

! : * ˆ GP + ,- T) ',! ! ,JA0+ GAB ,$53 )= " FI

) '()F 10:1384

.(

(!

' FI ! ! , N6 ( + & (S N ,! * /)3 ( ,$K (! + ,- ( ;+ C G *9` (= ? #$%& ,! ! FI

(12)

,3 A *J A))=

.

+ A) N6 * ( (!

:

; JA FI ,F2 & k "

,! !

; JA '#$%&

,! ! FI ,F2 & *N & "

; JA #$%&

,F2 2= 3 "

#$%& ,! ! FI .

; JA UK^@

#$%& ,! ! FI (0 J (! "

*= ;A `3 * + R A? G ,3 :

K O 4 - 7 "? @ < %c 4 : H H &E

H H

%c

%& ? G 7 "? @ <

%c

%& ? 0Q ? 7 "? @ <

%c

@ <

7 "?

-

%& &F

n •••N

•! ! FI

;A••))= •• E ••! !

!

! #[F23 FI

•• E ••FI

! ;A))=

G *9 + ,$K / _S!

# $5

&

,K @ " =*B * : [Nm

•• 3

••••••••

" FI 8•• 3P ~••

/

•• "+ ••

*XK >%? #K C

" •-% ‰ ! * /

"+ •

Ni3 >%? #K C 8••• 3P ~•••

/

>%? #K C "+

*XK

V A••

" FI

& : AI

" *• ; • GA0 ! *i= AC ,6 %F?

: [Nm > )3

#••••3 6 GAB ,0 T?

! ! : m N

( 3*•! FI

"

•• 3 GAB ,0 T?

" * ,E0 3 GAB ,0 T?

: A•••I G P •••! (•••

,••! !

••!

($

•• ••&

0 d A)= ,%

. GA•B ,0 T?

;*S ! 5

&

! : A•I + GAB ,0 T?

•&

••

,••$3 * " •• T0 >••X0 (••

A• = ,•3 * ,$3 * .

,0 •T?

,$3 * " * 0 ;*S ! 5 GAB

! GA••B ,0 ••T?

: AI •&

"

8•• 8••=*3 : AI •&

"

(••H *•• G •3 * ,••3 ••= *F`••

A . GA•B ,0 •T?

•••@

Q •••/0 3A

! " ( 3*!

>N)3 ) : 'G 20 ! G 2-?

1383 (

(13)

'A)= ,3 d ,0 T? ./0 "8 H (H (-) ( ! #$%& ,! ! FI

*-$%6 A0 F (-0P " * + (= ! ,! ! G 0 FI g* L 3 ,! ! Ž *X3

@ " * ./0 ,6 0 AB (FB @ . N? . (= ,3 TX3 eA)= ,3 Ž*

,3 #3 B V*m 7 " )N3 * $2 B

. ./0 G ) c 0 3 : Nƒ qA G )=

,3 j 253 B

A e ,! ! FI a : „ * @ ! A * 3 ;A -&

(= ! 45 3 c 0 3 2 -%3 " )! A)H #$%&

‰ ! * T0P N

! (F + * GAB ,0 T? A) P* & I (= ! ,0 T? ./0 ~F3 RA3 *%F!

:

, *9% GP 0+ 8% ? (= "A) P* '€*XF3 G T? c ,0 T? # [F3 ,9F2

Fragmentegration)

,3 (

A3 0 . G+ .T3 O 7 3 "+ ! )! A! ,3 */) G 3

G *9 + " FI ,0 T? # [F3 ,9F2 ,)E 'AB ,) 3+*! " *= = R K GAB " ([S)3 GAB ,! ! * * ';AB ,0 T? „^3 = G T? ,) 3+*! * M " FI ,0 T? FI ,F2 $F0 =*3 .

‰ ! * '

;A) P ,0 T? ./0

! ($

(= * J ,3 #-B ,B

~

B #C g GP #K .

GP !* 3 ( FI GAB ,0 T? P (= !

Q /0 (K*6 "* * 0 8 N! A3 d0 ,3 ,0 T? UK*6 *F` ; 8 ,3 ,$$%&

B G X& h3 FI GAB ,0 T? A) P* * * (H*J (= XJ A ! ‘

? ,0 [ 3 A0

e

@ !* + A)0 F (= `= + ;A6 GP 3

" * ( 3*! jL? "

l 3 A) * A0+ ! . * (E!

0 B ,3 8Td3 @ A)0 F0 (= T0P r-E& A

A0 3 A) @ ( B C A))= TF@ !* + ( .

F! %

'

GP* c ,0

! :

» FI Q M + ,E3 ? (= A)B (FB ,$@ " T0 (= A0* ,3 ! *F` ,0 T?

A0* 9 { X0 5 A))= * A3 " FI # [F3 ,9F2 + ,B 0 : 7 E

(Rodrik, «

1997:8) .

&

6 *`3 N *3 #k 23 E " * ,$$%& Q /0 lC n N A)H *

3 A0 */0 V^F@ ,$@

R [& lXF3 3 (%

F2 (= ,$$%& ,%/0 (= A)

h + ,- A P GP ,9F2 B * Lz g ;A) # -` "

@ (= A0

A0 A O *`3 .

GP* 53 & A6 ./0

& A6 d " * g^ G ,3 ./0 (= !

G 3 : AI [ , *M* M , *M "

b h Q 6 ,[ (= n*B ( T) 3 *=

G 3 : AI AB (FB C * ˆ R -B * j $S3 ; • 8 "

. ./0 " )N3 *

*J ' 53 & A6 ./0 (H

A)= r-E)3 (E! R C " `= > )3 (= ,$$%&

! ;AB (F@ !* "AC e

*`3 + G F (-0P + 3

*i= 80 ,$$%& Q /0 6

! Q+… *F` : * ˆ ' XJ h! G T? G 3 *3 .

(FB ? ,F 6 *`3 )H (-0P " *

(14)

,E + + l ` #$%& € [C G , *M* M *K )6 *F` 2 jL? 'AB

% 2 ,0 T? : *ƒ R - .

* ( '

*J

;+ C (H { X0 "

: AI A0 ; (0… 6 0 „ { 3 'A0 ; *= ,3 c%= G )= ./0 ( • 8 "

e

" 6 * +

! (FB LJ Q = 0 (E! R C " `= G 3 *3 B 0*! E lC ( n *3 .

K O 5 -

, ? 89 + a

7

<

"9 N O

%P 9

@ <

7 "?

$ 03E' <

9

@ <

7 "?

EZ0

@ < 9 7 "?

H 7 "? @ < 9

(E!

',9F 0

*[

(0… 6 0

* ,)FN3 F@ ! " ( 3*! Q /0 ,0 T?

=*B ,$3 * "

" ( 3*! ([Nm ( & ,0 T?

T0P + ,JA) %0 (0… 6 0

G 3 ,$$%&

' A0 '8=*3 G 3

G 3 * G 3 * (NB EX)3

"*i= AC ,N$m

>N)3 ) : ',k 7 141:1388 (

(F-0 ( 3 ./0 (&123 n N #$%& Y$Fh3 " " D N ,3 G %) * ,-F3 'AB ,F& * M G *9 + * * ,-F3 (-0P + ./0 (= + !

&

! . Q /0 ./0 (&123 ,F& * M G *9 + ; 9 ? , 0 O 7 3 -&

2 0 ,$$%&

. ! oh`3 (Œ0P #$%& Y$Fh3 " " D ,! *

* * , [F0 (= !

! " D + c .

53 (0+ 3 ./0 2 & k

(= A)0P*

&

.= C "

AC F@ ! + ,= * ,)FN3 B * 3 'A)F2 ( `3 ,

0 GP (= ! ,$$%&

, ) eA)= ,3 * ˆ (= ! "* ˆF3 T) ,N20 "

! ;A))= ; *%J .

3 Y m , + Y$Fh3

&

. 0 ,3 ,0 )= #$%& ./0

. )= ;A `3 * /0

&

N & "

" !P ,& %B " - *3P ', *M " * /0 " (F *` R *

,I*B e

&

$M * /0 j )? " %EF! 2 "

&

(= , `= ', [ * P "

# +* 'A) ' H '( ! * /0 A0* J ,3 *I (0 3 ...

.

&

Q A= *

*I G A3 2 G A3 'G A3 ` *B AC r 'A0

A)F2 0 ( `3 , .

2 & *N &

*J (= A)0P* 53 T0 ./0

&

= `3 "

0 I T0 ( ATEF3 @ ;A))=

+ ,B 0 ,ES[3 (N)? . ,$$%& 0 I T0 ( T0P ATE 'A)0 A0 ,$@ q+ C

(15)

A @ GP 6 QA6 " () 8 .

% ( ' T0 AFI , T -B d T?

. F2 #$%& Q /0 *F2 T0P GAB f0*%= T0P 0 I A6 I Š[0 A B .

;+ !

* ,)FN3 ./0 (= A)0P* 53 ;A ./0 G 90 g+

'c *= 3 = `3 'R *N & "

3 GP * = (= ! , 9h! XB

&

#%6 Y E7 ,$ @ R *N &* M "

*= A @ .

( */0 ./0 (= A)0P* 53 & A6 ./0 #$%& ,! ! FI G + *

*J (= ' ! +P + " * 0 * ,)FN3

&

FI q*F2J ./0 ;A))= = `3 "

Fh! ( 'A)B ; *-0 *I* +P + @ ,$@

$ $5 A0 ,3 , ,

A (k 3 ( #3 = .

A

* ' G 3 : N * * A

&

./0 (= + ! ,3 G %) (F-0 ( 3

,%0 ,$$%&

" FI " 9& ' 3 * A (-NB T0 ': AI U0+ 3 ( T) G

( 3*!

;A + Ž EF3 .= (6 %d3 ,0 T? "

# $[

A

" (N)?

$ $5 " D TH * * 9%`H ,

A)B ? 3 ,$$%& ./0 + >3 ? .

!* 3

= " D TH U% + . 0 ,3 (0 9H (= ! ,

‘. )= (k ./0 + ,3 %6

! % 8k C , -0 ( ; B n N :

Y&

( (? G 0 = Q /0 (0 #$%&

&

! ,$$%& ./0 qA A (-$ '*` O 0 O %F? (0 e

j ( A A ,$$%& ./0

;

"

c

2 0 "AE e

G 3 : N * "* A * 3

&

Y *E ,$$%& ./0 G ,%0 .

*=

. TH ,$K " ;+ C ./0 " * ,0 )= " 7 [ * ,-F3 (&123

! (0 J e

p (

./0

*= Ž* .$23 A N0 ,$$%&

e T† (= ! A 0 " F! ./0

: AI B Y E~ ! -%3 *J+ d "

e GP G ,3 3

" 7 [ @ ! R 5F3

A)= 31 ? 3 e

( )=

: AI

• 8 : AI " A A0 = '*N "

&

"

*N &

%/0 GA)- , G -3 , K (F *` R ,

,$K " (F! @ (= ? : Nƒ

&

Y E7 "

. * 9 */0 8 0 (E! R C e

; ( ',$$%& ./0 ;A A N

0 _ 5K #@ ‰ I e 2

(= *H

&

([k : AI ? G A A)0 ,3 .= C "

) ./0 ,$K U h`3 ,$@

( A) #-B ,$$%& ./0 ( .

./0 GP US ,B 0P (&123

#$%& : C : 6 7 3 * " 53 #$%& Q /0 G *9`)= G 3 " -% G -3

! #$%& ( */0 .

A)H* ,$$%& ./0 + j $S3 , 9& (k 3 */0 (

A 0P % 86 (S[0 *I ,B

e

‰ 2C (= *I G 6{ 3 (F-0 A 3

; T0 ? * #$%& & * @ h GA% G `0 ',0 20 O %F? ( l$E

! . 2 0 ./0 G A[ " )E3 ( ,B 0P e

! ([k : AI 3 -C G A[ " )E3 ( (-$

.

B 0P *B ./0 T? % (

! -%3 c .

F!

' . * + : -0 #31

,3 9& (k 3 A0 ,

*! f)? 2 #$%& Q /0 ./0 + j $S3 A0 ! "

:

(16)

K % (= e

$-`3 ,

; JA j H H (= ,0 3+ (-) GP ? " (`

& Q /0 _S! ./0 + : XF3 " 9&

U ' B ,X0 #$%

"

0 `@ " * .-53

AB (FB ? A0 ,3 ,%/0 , T0 (S$! ' AFI 'O *`3 .

NF6 (= ,3 9)

; JA + " F@ ! )H (-0P %7 ' B >I R NI 3 ./0 + : XF3 " 9&

%/0 d ( G ,3 ' A @ ,

Q /0 89 ? AB A 3 ,0 )= #$%&

.

d %

A

*F` A =1 #$%& Q /0 ,$$%& " T0 ; 9 ? [0 *

* L : K .

)H . A

" T0 j H H @ #k 23 A))= ,E! `= (%

3 8

"* 9

= A)) . F!

' _$K d AK *F` A5F3 #$3 G 3+ ! A

AB Ni3

,X)3 _$K e

(= )E3 ( A

( #! " (` ' + ( #! F@ ! A53 %7

,! * . f)? +

*=

T0P > ,E! ; `= (% = `3 ;

*=

.

d %

; 9 ? [0 * V*K A =1 : AI

./0 • 8 "

[0 ,$$%&

./0 " 3 : AI

= ',$$%&

, A ,%0 3 ( ./0 + j $S3 .

A G Œ%

;+ ! G Œ% *= A =1 ,$$%& ./0 " 3* M " * 0 [0 * G 90 "

" `= #$%& ,! ! FI

*= # @ ,$$%& ./0 8 0 (E! R C .

A 3

./0 (7*6 G 3 AB #k I 8 % `= ./0 " * 7 [

.

d 15 %

T0

*ƒ’3 A0 ,%0 ,$$%& ./0 + b @ (N)? c * V*K A =1

>I B .

! * + (0 J TH " ;+ C * A =1 * ,)FN3 ,$$%& ./0 :

- ,! ! (0+ 3 d -

e: AI ,3 /0

- ,$$%& " T0 "A3P = ,0 T? 3 * A

)

" A3 3 -C (

e

- ec B 0P A7 f) * d ;A .T! 8

- (% U0… 6 *` ; d ,0 T? " ( 3*! " FI " * 0 g^

`=

.

:

! .

#$ % :

1 . ,&A 'R ) 1380 (

"' ,$$%& ./0 : AI G+

"

. m 7* $6 .

+ c $' 2 E09

. G *T : Q^! (3 0+ *`0 .

2 .

• DJ 'G 20 ! :* 'G 2-?

) 1383 ( ' 7 "? @ < A< 0< : Z .

G *= { "AT3 .

G *T : G 8 3 *`0 .

3 . R = 'w :* ' = . G JA)2 0 + ,E%? V+ ? '" 0 .

) 1375 ( ' 7 "? @ < A< : H E09 .

A$?

. A C

,J 8 . G *T : , 9`0 T? *`0 .

4 . V *J8F& :* 8% ? ', *k )

1376 ( ' 7 "? @ < A< e ;% : H E09 .

,J 8 A C m 7* $6

.

G *T : r3 I *`0 .

(17)

5 . R^? '" P+ * ,0 [ )

1377 (

"' ,$$%& " -% R *N & D0 , *J T0 ( */0

"

. O P

. R !

. + .

; %B 3 8 ' .

6 . 7* $6 ',k 7 )

1388

" .(

,NSI F@ ! ,B * + r ,$$%& Q /0 " & H N

"

. a2 :0%F f2 .

,3^! +P ; 9`0 .

G *T : [ [5 Q $6 AC .

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#' :

1. Barnett, Michael N. Steve Smith and Raymond Duvall (Eds) (2004). Power in Global Governance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

2. Boli, J. and Thomas, G. (Eds) (1999). Constructing World Culture. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

3. Harrison, Ewan (2004). The Post-Cold War International System; Strategies, Institutions and Reflexivity. London; Rutledge.

4. Keohane, R. (2001). “Governance in a Partially Globalize World”. American Political Science Association. 95(1).

5. Keohane, Robert (1989). International Institutions and State Power. Boulder: West view press.

6. Pape, Robert .A. (2005). “Soft Balancing against the United States”. International Security. Vol. 30, No.1. Summer.

7. Paul, T.V. (2005). “Soft Balancing in the Age of US Primacy”. International Security.

Vol. 30, No.1. Summer.

8. Rodrik, Dani (1997). “Globalization, Social Conflict and Economic Growth”. Journal of Economic Growth. December.

9. Vasquez, John A. and Elman, Colin (Eds) (2003). Realism and the Balancing of Power:

A New Debate. N.J: Prentice-Hall.

10. Walt, Stephan (2005). Taming America Power.New York: Cornell University Press.

11. Waltz, Kenneth (1979). Theory of International Politics. New York: Addison Worley.

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