China
China ’ ’ s Energy Restructure and s Energy Restructure and Carbon Dioxide Abatement
Carbon Dioxide Abatement
Angang Hu
Center for China Study,
Chinese Academy of Science &
Tsinghua University March, 2002
I.Background: China is changing I.Background: China is changing
its growth pattern
its growth pattern
Characters of China
Characters of China’’s Economic s Economic Transition ,1995
Transition ,1995--9999
l Less capital investment, energy consumption and pollution emissions per unit economic output.
l Emerging new growth pattern from factor- concentrated growth to knowledge-based growth.
l Economic growth mainly depends on new industries with lower energy consumption and pollution emissions during the 9th FYP, such as industries of Information, Tourism, Banking and Insurance, Education. Tertiary Industry raised 2.8 percent GDP during this period.
l Industrial pollution was controlled in the 9th FYP, major pollutants emissions have declined 15-25 percent since 1996 by SEPA reports.
l Pollution emissions measured by unit GDP or industrial output have been rapidly declined.
l These changes mainly benefit from large scale economic restructure especially energy
restructure.
China
China ’ ’ s Economic Indicators, 1990 s Economic Indicators, 1990 - - 99 99
11.3 19.9
Import Growth
10.9 19.1
Export Growth
10.6（10.7） 23.2（11.8）
Consumer Goods Retail Sale Growth
-0.5 5.9
Energy Consumption Growth
-3.3 4.4
Energy Production Growth
-0.1 11.4
Retail Price Inflation
1.8 12.9
Consumer Price Inflation
18.4（16.6） 17.2（4.3）
Finance Expenditure Growth
16.5（14.7） 16.3（3.4）
Finance Revenue Growth
11.2 36.9
Gross Fixed Investment Growth
0.9 1.2
Employment Growth
12.0 17.5
Fluctuation Coefficient
8.3 12.0
GDP Growth
The 9th FYP The 8th FYP
Indicators
Unit: ％
Note: fixed price in bracket
II.China
II.China ’ ’ s Energy Structure s Energy Structure Adjustment
Adjustment
l Coal-burning remains the chief contributor of air pollution; motor vehicle emissions will increase in the next 10 years.
l Energy efficiency has improved and coal consumption has declined. Because of
this,CO2 emissions were much less than projected in the early 1990s.
Energy consumptions present negative
growth during the 9th FYP. The aggregate reduced 7.6 percent in 1999 relative to 1995.
Remarkably, coal consumption abatement is very obvious, reducing 16.3 percent during 1996-99.
Trends in Energy Consumption
Trends in Energy Consumption
Trends in Coal Consumption,1978
Trends in Coal Consumption,1978--9999
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Thousand tons
Energy Consumption Coal Consumption Coal Production
Change in Energy Density,1953
Change in Energy Density,1953--9898
International comparison in energy Density International comparison in energy Density
(Energy/GDP) (Energy/GDP)
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
注：世界平均水平
为
1.00 中国印度 日本 俄
罗
斯 美国III.Situation of China
III.Situation of China ’ ’ s Carbon s Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Dioxide Emissions
Air Pollution Air Pollution
l Emission of major air pollutants peaked in 1995.Emission declines since then: SO2 by 16%;dust by 33%;industrial TSP by
37%;CO2 by 17%.
Trends in CO
Trends in CO
2 2Emission Density Emission Density
Carbon Dioxide Emissions per unit
