Chapter 5. Summary and Policy Direction
F. Improvement of accuracy of generation forecasting and control capability
The MPSOPF model establishes an optimized day-ahead generation plan for each of the 24 hours of the following day. As in Figure 3-15, as time goes by, the forecast accuracy decreases, increasing the required reserve. For wind power, especially, the forecast accuracy decreases the earlier the forecast is made.
Renewable energy generation forecasting capability needs to be improved, and variable reserves should be introduced to enhance the precision of renewable energy output forecasting. Also, as the case of PJM above shows, the determination of the required reserve in the real-time market, considering the level of variability corresponding to the forecasted renewable energy output level on the operating day, may be considered. Furthermore, the introduction of a renewables market bidding system may be another way of improving renewables generation forecasting. By allowing renewables market bidding, the development of forecasting skills can be promoted. In addition, market bidding could foster investment in flexibility resources.
Meanwhile, by making it mandatory to install control devices such as pitch control for wind power generation and inverters for solar PV, output can be controlled. If the output of renewables is excessive, causing problems in the power system, the output of some renewable energy sources may be limited and appropriate compensation provided based on the rules of compensation.
Regarding ordering dispatch to balance supply and demand, as in Figure 5-5, the minimum level of base-load generation is met by must-run generators, with the remaining load being fulfilled by renewable energy. If the demand exceeds the total generation of must-run generators and renewables, the generation of must-run generators may be increased or additional generators activated to meet the demand. If the demand is less than the total generation of must-run generators and renewables, the renewable energy output can be restricted somewhat to maintain the balance.
Figure 5-3. Limitation of renewable energy output
Source: author
발전량 Generation
시간 Time
수요 Demand
재생에너지 출력제한 필요 Need to limit renewable energy output 재생에너지 발전량 Renewables generation amount 기저발전의 최소 발전량 Minimum level of base-load generation
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