3. Future Mobility Scenario
3.3 Mobility Concepts from Scenario Summary
3. FUTURE MOBILITY SCENARIO
Chapter 3 explains the ideation of 3 possible mobility scenarios using the 5 future trends. This chapter will explain how the scenario is created and developed into the project. The Scenarios and the 6 Mobility Groups will be combined to produce 3 Design Directions of this paper. The method of Sce- nario planning is used to capture a range of future possibilities, (Schoemaker, 1995). Using the identi- fied trends and environments three scenarios are plotted that are centered around mobility concepts.
3.1 Process
Using the 5 future trends found in Chapter 2 as basis, 3 future scenarios are created. Each sce- nario is created with 2 future trends and are given an environment relevant with the future context. 2 Future trends were chosen according to their relevancy in making a story with the design team. Table 3 shows the which future trends and future environment are assigned for each scenario.
Table 3. Future trends and environment assigned for each scenario
SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3
FUTURE TREND
1 Customization Aging/ Health Tangible to Intangible
FUTURE TREND
2 On/Off Mix On/Off Mix Metahuman
FUTURE ENVI-
RONMENT Shared House Family Car Sharing Fun Working
Relevant future environment were chosen by careful research. Research has shown that Shared Housing is on the rise for 25~34 year old from 2005 to 2015 by 39%, (Talty, 2015). This rapidly growing trend has attracted businesses with a new concept of co-living. Not only for the young, but there is a positive outlook between the elderly as well, explained by (Holeywell, 2012). Shared housing encom- passes both the young and the old and has a positive prospect socially and economically.
Car Sharing is a growing trend today as well. It has enabled younger carless individuals to travel freely and also helps reduce environmental pollution along with other transportation problems, (Katzev, 2003). In North America and Europe the average car is used 8% of the time. Sharing makes practical and economic sense for the consumer, the economy and the community, (Belk, 2014). The positive and logical future outlook for car sharing was chosen for one of the scenarios.
The third future environment is Fun Working. Any work space a person occupies, however dysfunctional, will play a part in sustaining an individual’s identity or sense of self, therefore it is a crucial area in future development, (Vischer, 2005) how ‘working’ will be positively implemented. It is an area where companies are increasingly interested in to help increase productivity and commitment to work explained by (Baldry & Hallier, 2010). Therefore it is chosen as one of future scenario envi- ronments.
Because this paper is about exploring the future of mobility form factor the scenarios are cen- tered around mobility ideas.
3.2 The 3 Future Scenarios
3.2.1 Scenario 1: Shared-house Resident’s Outing
Based upon the above explanation, a short story was written and visualized. Scenario 1 is based upon the trends, Customization and On/Off Mix and has the future environment of shared house. The following is the scenario plot:
1. Residents in the share house purchase goods every 2 weeks together using a shared cloud system.
2. When ordered, delivery van arrives in the vicinity, and modules separate with the accom- pany of a helper.
3. The helper uses Wearable mobility device that helps strengthen his power and speed during delivery.
4. The goods arrive at the share house, where smaller goods reach the house by drone, and larger goods (furniture) reach the door front with the helper.
5. Some share house residents decide to visit their friends using the car provided by the share house.
6. The share car has memory interior layout function for each residents that gets ready when it is reserved.
7. It also has preset functions, conversation, cruise, private modes.
8. The residents approach the car and go on visit.
9. During the travel, residents are hungry and decide to order McDonalds inside the car.
10. McDonalds delivery module from the nearest vicinity approaches the car and supplies the reserved food.
11. Residents arrive at the recreational site, and decide to reserve a CGV car to watch their favorite movies on a big screen.
The visualization plot for Scenario is the following:
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Figure 18. Share house residents’ outing
The Scenario depicts a possible mobility environment in the near future. From the scenario, five future mobility concepts are identified which are as follows:
Segway Assistant: An assistant mobility that detaches from the delivery van for short deliveries. It automatically follows the delivery man to the destination while avoiding obstacles in a narrow area. It
1. Once a week, share house residents orders goods together through cloud system
2. For narrow roads, a modular Seg- way is used to deliver goods to the share house
3. To carry heavy items, a wearable is used to help ease the weight of the delivery box
4. For light deliveries, a drone is used to quick delivery
6. For individual needs and pur- poses, different options can be cho- sen for the car
8. During the move, a passenger or- ders fast food, which is delivered by a nearby module
9. The sharehouse friends, order a cinema service module to watch their favorite movie
7. The interior modifies according to the user’s needs
5. Sharehouse residents can easily reserve a shared car for a getaway
can cover areas where the delivery van cannot reach due to the size of the vehicle. The delivery man does not need to carry the deliveries by hand, but can guide the Segway assistant for delivery.
Drone Delivery: A delivery system using drones over short distances. While the delivery-man covers one part of the delivery area, drone can cover alternate drone-possible areas for quicker delivery. It can automatically grab a delivery box and reach its destination. For charging, it can connect with the deliv- ery van autonomously.
Modular Delivery (McDonalds): A fully autonomous vehicle that can deliver goods, in this case fast food, to customers on the move. When the customer orders, preparation time and delivery distance is taken into account to choose the relevant store branch. When the food is ready, the delivery module will move from that store to the customer’s vehicle. It will approach the customer at a similar speed and attach for easy delivery.
Modular Delivery (CGV Movie): A fully autonomous vehicle that incorporates a cinema screen for outside use. When reserved, the ‘cinema screen’ module can travel to the designation for a cinema experience outside cinema.
Flexible Interior 1: A useful function for shared cars between shared house residents. The interior can adjust to different modes flexibly for different resident needs. The modes can be diverse including social, work, relax situations.
3.2.2 Scenario 2: Time between Grandfather & Grandson
Scenario 2 is based upon the trends, Aging/ Health and On/Off Mix and has the future environ- ment of shared family car. The following points are the scenario plot:
1. Grandfather knows that their grandson ends school at a certain time, and decide to visit a landmark with him.
2. Using IoT, grandfather asks his son if they can visit a landmark with his son after his school.
3. Son accepts, and customizes the car for his dad and his son.
4. The car leaves home and picks up the grandson.
5. For the child, the AI assistance (SERA) provides games and helps with his homework un- til they reach grandparents’ house.
6. The car picks up the grandfather and leave for the landmark.
7. SERA provides information about what the child is interested in using cloud and allows for a better conversation between grandfather and grandson.
8. Upon arrival at the destination, SERA provides information about the place, and gives a short tour.
9. Grandfather and grandson leaves car and comes back after sightseeing.
10. Grandfather return to house and car leaves for ride sharing.
The visualization plot for Scenario is the following:
Figure 19. Time between grandfather and grandson, with shared car
The Scenario depicts a possible mobility environment in the near future. From the scenario, four future mobility concepts are identified which are as follows:
1. Grandfather wishes to go on a trip with his grandson, and asks SERA as- sistant of the possibility
2. SERA suggests the ideal place for the trip and sends an alarm to his son
3. The son receives SERA’s message and confirms that his father’s wish is possible
4. The autonomous shared vehicle leaves the son’s workplace to pick up his son
5. While moving, the car changes modes from work to family mode
6. The car arrives when grandson's school ends, and greets him cheer- fully
7. While the grandson moves to his grandfather’s home, he is kept busy with SERA company
8. The car arrives at the grandfather’s house and gives a warm welcome
9. While going to the destination, SERA aids communication between the grandfather and grandson
Destination
Departure
Flexible Interior 2: A practical function for cars shared between family. The interior can flexibly adjust to different modes for different needs. The modes can be diverse including social, work and relax situ- ations. In this case, social, as the car helps the grandfather interact with his grandson.
Moving Interaction: A moveable interactive hologram. For social mode, it is at the center for easier visual communication. For Office mode, it is at the side supplying general information. The interactive media can move accordingly. With artificial intelligence and big data, it can be customized for each passenger and provide diverse information such as tour explanations and upcoming schedules.
SERA Artificial Intelligence: Next generation AI system that is connected both to the home and to the car by cloud. It can access big-data information and subscribed personal information (from smart phones to computers) to suggest and implement favorite ‘things’ for the car and the home.
Milieu Interaction: Car can communicate with the outside surrounding, such as people and other car (V2P, V2V, V2B). It can greet people and welcome them when approached using appropriate technol- ogies such as lighting, displays, scent and sound.
3.2.3 Scenario 3: Working without Stress
Scenario 3 is based upon the trends, Tangible to Intangible and Metahuman and has the future environ- ment ‘Fun Working’. The following points are the scenario plot:
1. Workers arrive to work using their preferred method (car sharing, ride sharing, PM, Per- sonal vehicle, etc).
2. Workers enter the workplace joined by their micro-assistant mobility.
3. Micro-assistant appropriately offers help with relevant information about work. Working has never been easier.
4. Micro-assistant projects holographic information during a team discussion for an effec- tive meeting.
5. Micro-assistant reserves a membership-oriented car service for the worker to leave for home.
6. During the weekend’s, workers join a club for leisure activities using wearable mobility or personal mobility to enjoy extreme leisure sports.
7. Workers enjoy their free time with their PM and with their leisure Wearables. There is a choice of different mobility on offer. From healthy to thrilling experiences.
8. Workers go back to their homes or return home using autonomous drive. The worker can return home relaxed using the Virtual Reality that offers a peaceful experience that inter- acts with the five senses.
The visualization plot for Scenario is the following:
Figure 20. Working without stress
The Scenario depicts a possible mobility environment in the near future. From the scenario, four future mobility concepts are identified which are as follows:
Micro-assistant: A personal micro robot that follows the worker, assisting in numerous tasks. It has a hologram projector that is used to remind the worker of relevant information or visually aid in team discussions.
1. The workers arrive at the company using various mobility solutions
2. When workers arrive, small mobile assistants help with different tasks
3. The mobile assistants help the workers to be efficient at work during work hours
4. The mobile assistant can receive simple works and help during busi- ness meetings
5. The assistant reserves a shared car for getting off from work
6. During weekends, a wearable mo- bility club is made to enjoy extreme sports
7. Besides joining a club, individuals can enjoy their weekends with differ- ent ways of driving
8. With special personal mobility, in- dividuals can exercise while having fun
9. While using autonomous mobility, passengers can enjoy and relax dur- ing their free time using virtual real- ity
Bio-drive: Mobility concept that encourages a healthy lifestyle. Movement and charging by pedaling encourages the driver to be engaged physically with the car. Flying-Car: Personal EV that can radically change its driving posture. In a sportive environment, the driver can be in a radical ‘flying’ position, giving a sense of flight inside the car. In a ‘normal’ environment the driver will be in an ordinary driving position.
Virtual Shrine: A mobility concept that integrates Virtual Reality to interact with the passenger’s 5 senses to put him/her in an all-peaceful shrine. The shrine is customized for each passenger for the best relaxing (or thrilling) experience.
It is worth nothing that all scenarios were created as a team from ideation to visualization.
Firstly, team members were free to ideate upon the future scenario freely, and discussed the ideation together to create a more objective future scenario.
3.3 Mobility Concepts from Scenario
From each of the three future scenarios, relevant mobility concepts are identified. Table 4 sum marizes the mobility concepts. However, not only did the scenarios generate future relevant concepts, but also helped us to visualize the future environment in more detail. Scenario has helped to widen our vision and understanding of the future while giving us rich ideas of mobility concepts.
Table 4. Mobility concepts from future scenario
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Segway Assistant Flexible Interior 2 Micro-Assistant
Drone Delivery Moving Interaction Bio-Drive
Modular Delivery 1 SERA A.I. Flying-Car
Modular Delivery 2 Milieu Interaction Virtual Shrine Flexible Interior 1
A total of 13 different mobility concepts are identified from all the future scenarios. They are the result of future trend research, future scenario ideation which in itself is meaningful. One can notice that the direction of concepts generated are specific for each scenario. Concepts in Scenario 1 describe a modular approach to future concepts for delivery while hinting at a flexible interior layout for car sharing. Concepts in Scenario 2 describes an interactive approach to encourage communication between
passengers, while hinting at a flexible interior layout for different combination of passengers. Concepts in Scenario 3, describes how a mobility can be driven for different experiences. Using the 13 Concepts generated in this chapter, and the 6 Mobility groups in the previous chapter, 3 Design Keywords will be deduced. 3 Design Keywords will be used for further ideation.