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of citizens. The North Korean people are generally hesitant to the opening and reform because only a limited number of people have been exposed to the benefits of the opening and reform. Most North Korean citizens still tend to prefer the old system. Lastly, the fourth one is the external circumstance which has always been poor.
Throughout its history, North Korea has been under the potential and real pressure of blockades and sanctions by the great powers.
Thus, North Korea has always had to deal ad toione nal and external naleats to its security, which will continue to prohibit its devel- opment. In addition, the traditional confrontation between the two Koreas makes little room for South Korea to influence the opening of North Korea. It seems a bit too early for North Korea to move toward opening. However, the cooperation between China and South Korea can help open North Korea to a certain extent although it may not bring about a dramatic change in structure. Therefore, China and South Korea should continue their efforts to find a common ground in cooperation to promote North Korea’s opening.
2. Prerequisites for the cooperation between China and
(1) Justification for North Korean Regime
It is crucial to understand North Korea’s extreme discomfort in hearing the expectations of other countries that it hopefully makes a soft landing for the sake of minimizing the shock from its collapse. China and South Korea need to endorse the North Korean Regime and provide it stability in order to justify the process of opening up. In other words, it is necessary to treat North Korea as an equal partner.
(2) Possibility of Opening-Up North Korea
We need to admit that North Korea has tried opening and reform whilst still maintaining its Military First policy. Their effort has been stranded due to the domestic and international factors, but they clearly understand the necessity of opening and reform. After announcing Joint Venture Law in 1984, North Korea has announced 38 foreign economic regulations in total and built free trade zones in Najin, Sunbong, Geumgang Mountain Tourism Special District, and Gaesong Industrial Complex. 26 regulations out of 38, which represents 72% were all made or revised after 2002.1 If these 26 regulations are effective, we can expect a lot more progress in the opening of North Korea.
There are certainly problems for North Korea to advance toward opening and reform. North Korea is putting its foremost effort on building a wealthy country and a powerful army by 2012.
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In the process of recovery, the domestic economy is considered more important than external economic development and cooper- ation. For the sake of recovery of domestic economy, some foreign investment is flowing into North Korea but it is by far insufficient to afford full-scale opening and reform. However, once North Korea is guaranteed security from the United States, it is likely to move forward in opening up its economy and cooperation with international community.
B. The Common Benefits for China and South Korea in Dealing with North Korea
If there are no common benefits for China and South Korea in dealing with North Korea, it is impossible to expect any cooperation between the two countries to open up North Korea. It is a common goal for China and South Korea to promote North Korea’s stability and development. China is pursuing “Three-Neighbor” policy in order to maintain stability around its borders: peaceful neighbors, stable neighbors, and wealthy neighbors. The unstable North Korea is also a burden for South Korea. Therefore, North Korea’s opening and reform will stimulate the economic development and cooperation in Northeast Asia, which will certainly benefit China and South Korea. Considering the geographical positions of China, South Korea, and North Korea, the economic cooperation among three countries is crucial in order to achieve the greater mutual
benefit for Northeast Asia. But the isolated North Korea is physically cutting off the link of the three countries’ cooperation.2
Thus, the mutual trust between China and South Korea is the first step toward the cooperation among the three countries.
Especially, South Korea needs to alleviate its caution against China through talks.
One of the most critical reasons for the difficulty in enhancing the relation between South Korea and North Korea is North Korea’s excluding South Korea in their foreign economic policy due to the resentment against South Korea. This can be clearly seen in their Economic Special District plan which is major part of the foreign economic policy.
<Table Ⅳ-1> North Korean Economic Special District Goals
Name Short-term goal Long-term goal 1 Gaesong IndustrialComplex
Introduce South Korean capital and technology
Aiming for European capital and technology
2 Geumgang Mountain Tourism Special District
Targeting South
Korean tourists Targeting Japanese tourists
3 Sinuiju Special District Targeting the 3 districts in northeastern China 4 Najin and Sunbong Targeting far east Russia
China can play a constructive role with South Korea to promote North Korea’s opening and reform, which will ultimately contribute to the cooperation among the three countries.