Chapter 6. Forecasts on RE Demand and Investment Costs
6.1 RE Demand Forecasts
6.1.2 RE Deployment Forecast
To estimate equation (3), the resource potential for each RE source in Cameroon should be investigated first. In this study, analysis was carried out by using the data published by the MINEE. The resource potential of RE by source is shown in the table below. It was found that while the resource potential of small hydropower, biomass, and solar were abundant, the potential amounts of wind power and geothermal were not as abundant.
❙ Table 6-1 ❙ The summary of resource potential of RE in Cameroon
Source: MINEE (2016) and excerpt from Table 5-1
Sources Market Potential
Small hydro-
electricity 7.0 TWh/year
Biomass 6.54 TWh/year
Solar maximum 780 TWh/day
Wind
Average wind speed higher than 2 m/s in Kaélé and Lake Tchad
CF) Average wind speed estimated at 6.6 m/s on top of Mount Bamboutos, where the construction of a wind farm is currently in progress.
Geothermal 7e~8e meridian
This study conducted scenario analyses to minimize the uncertainty in forecasting the future. The reference case assumed that the diffusion pattern for RE, except for hydropower, would follow the pattern of the diesel generators. This scenario considered the resource potential for each RE source in the estimation process. The INDC scenario assumed that the 2035 goal for RE generation would be met. The scenarios are summarized in the below table.
❙ Table 6-2 ❙ Scenario analyses for RE forecasts
Scenario Market Potential
Reference
Hydro: Diffusion model applied using past data
Non-hydro renewable: Potential for each RE source applied with diffusion pattern for diesel generators
INDC Assumed that the 2035 RE generation volume is met Source: KEEI
To identify the source-specific mix in the total generation volume, the forecast data for total generation volume were acquired from PDSE 2030 of MINEE (2014b). Regional electricity demand forecasts (RIS, RIN, RIE) are shown in <Table 3-4>. As the target year of this study is 2040, an average growth rate of 6.44% from 2017~2035 was used for forecasting the generation volume up to 2040. Forecasts on the electricity demand of Cameroon are indicated in the following table.
❙ Table 6-3 ❙ Forecasts on electricity demand by region in Cameroon
(Unit: GWh)
year RIS RIN RIE SUM
2012 5,047 298.3 50.3 5,395.6
2013 5,309 314.2 59.9 5,683.1
2014 5,570 337.3 67.0 5,974.3
2015 5,847 355.4 74.4 6,276.8
2016 6,186 373.4 82.9 6,642.3
2017 7,090 482.9 145.1 7,718.0
2018 7,459 843.6 155.6 8,458.2
2019 7,857 872.9 166.5 8,896.4
2020 8,284 1,227.9 177.7 9,689.6
2021 8,927 1,700.2 187.4 10,814.6
Source: MINEE (2014b)
Based on the forecast of total power demand in Cameroon in MINEE (2014b) PDSE 2030, the outlook of RE supply prospects in this study is as follows. The reference case shows that solar PV generation will reach 25 GWh by 2020, 78 GWh by 2025, 238 GWh by 2030, 728 GWh by 2035, and 2,229 GWh by 2040. The share of solar PV generation in the total generation volume is expected to be 0.26% in 2020, 0.54% in 2025, 1.19% in 2030, 3.07% in 2035, and 6.88% in 2040. However, to meet the INDC target, it is necessary to multiply the modifier coefficient of 1.167 on diffusion speed parameter β.
This means that the speed of solar diffusion must be more than 16.7% higher than the speed of diffusion of diesel in the past, implying that by 2035, 1.8 times more solar PV capacity than the reference case must be provided. By itself, the INDC scenario indicates solar PV generation at 28 GWh in 2020, 105 GWh in 2025, 387 GWh in 2030, 1,427 GWh in 2035, and 5,263 GWh in 2040. The share of solar PV in the total generational capacity is forecasted at 0.29% in 2020, 0.73% in 2025, 1.94% in 2030, 6.01% in 2035, and 16.23% in 2040.
year RIS RIN RIE SUM
2025 10,726 2,078.5 1,599.1 14,403.6
2026 11,284 2,141.8 3,324.4 16,750.2
2027 11,876 2,214.4 3,338.1 17,428.5
2028 12,510 2,291.7 3,352.3 18,154.0
2029 13,188 2,568.5 3,367.1 19,123.6
2030 13,914 2,656.3 3,382.4 19,952.7
2031 14,551 2,685.5 3,404.7 20,641.2
2032 15,173 2,765.6 3,415.6 21,354.2
2033 15,829 2,850.1 3,426.7 22,105.8
2034 16,521 2,939.2 3,437.8 22,898.0
2035 17,252 3,032.3 3,446.4 23,730.7
2036
forecast
25,258.7 25,258.7
2037 26,885.1 26,885.1
2038 28,616.2 28,616.2
2039 30,458.7 30,458.7
2040 32,419.9 32,419.9
❙ Table 6-4 ❙ Power generation by solar PV
(Unit: GWh)
Source: KEEI
The figure below demonstrates the diffusion graph for solar PV in Cameroon. The difference in the supply volume between the reference case and the INDC case continued to increase, with a total difference of 3,034 GWh by the year 2040. This figure is higher than the supply in the reference case of 2,229 GWh.
The government plans to construct a total of 557 kW of solar PV generation capacity by 2020.
Applying an average of 20% in capacity factor on these facilities allows the annual production of 1 GWh.
Reference case INDC
Year Generation Share Generation Share
2018 16 0.19% 17 0.20%
2019 20 0.23% 22 0.25%
2020 25 0.26% 28 0.29%
2021 32 0.29% 37 0.34%
2022 40 0.35% 48 0.42%
2023 50 0.42% 62 0.52%
2024 62 0.50% 81 0.65%
2025 78 0.54% 105 0.73%
2026 97 0.58% 136 0.81%
2027 122 0.70% 177 1.01%
2028 152 0.84% 230 1.26%
2029 190 1.00% 298 1.56%
2030 238 1.19% 387 1.94%
2031 298 1.44% 502 2.43%
2032 372 1.74% 652 3.05%
2033 466 2.11% 847 3.83%
2034 582 2.54% 1,099 4.80%
2035 728 3.07% 1,427 6.01%
2036 911 3.61% 1,853 7.33%
2037 1,139 4.24% 2,405 8.95%
2038 1,425 4.98% 3,123 10.91%
2039 1,782 5.85% 4,054 13.31%
2040 2,229 6.88% 5,263 16.23%
[Figure 6-2] Solar PV generation forecasts for Cameroon
Source: KEEI
It was assumed that the resource potential of wind power in Cameroon was 500 GWh, reflecting the reality that the country lacks the resource potential of wind power. It is forecasted that wind power in Cameroon will reach 32 GWh in 2020, 63 GWh in 2025, 116 GWh in 2030, 195 GWh in 2035, and 287 GWh in 2040. In addition, the share of wind power to total power production is expected to increase by 0.33% in 2020, 0.43% in 2025, 0.58% in 2030, 0.82% in 2035, and 0.88% in 2040. It indicates that wind power supply is only 13% of solar PV generation in 2040. However, to meet the INDC target, parameter β (spreading rate parameter) must be multiplied by 1.15 (correction factor). In other words, the diffusion speed needs to be at least 15% higher than that of diesel power generation, meaning wind power supply should be 1.3 times greater than the reference scenario for 2035. Therefore, in terms of the INDC scenario, wind power capacity is expected to reach 34 GWh in 2020, 73 GWh in 2025, 144 GWh in 2030, 244 GWh in 2035, and 346 GWh in 2040. The share of wind power to total power capacity is forecasted to reach 0.35% in 2020, 0.51% in 2025, 0.72% in 2030, 1.03% in 2035, and 1.07% in 2040.
❙ Table 6-5 ❙ Power generation by wind
(Unit: GWh)
Reference case INDC
Year Generation Share Generation Share
2018 24 0.28% 24 0.33%
2019 28 0.31% 29 0.42%
2020 32 0.33% 34 0.52%
2021 36 0.34% 40 0.61%
2022 42 0.37% 46 0.75%
2023 48 0.40% 54 0.93%
2024 55 0.44% 63 1.12%
2025 63 0.43% 73 1.21%
2026 71 0.43% 84 1.26%
2027 81 0.46% 97 1.43%
2028 92 0.50% 111 1.59%
2029 103 0.54% 127 1.70%
2030 116 0.58% 144 1.80%
2031 130 0.63% 162 1.88%
2032 145 0.68% 182 1.94%
2033 161 0.73% 202 1.96%
2034 177 0.77% 223 1.96%
2035 195 0.82% 244 1.95%
2036 213 0.84% 266 1.87%
2037 231 0.86% 287 1.78%
2038 250 0.87% 308 1.69%
2039 268 0.88% 327 1.60%
2040 287 0.88% 346 1.52%
Source: KEEI
The following figure shows the wind power diffusion graph. A gap between the reference scenario and
[Figure 6-3] Wind power generation forecasts for Cameroon
Source: KEEI
The large hydropower of Cameroon is expected to reach 5,548GWh in 2020, 6,310GWh in 2025, 7,173GWh in 2030, 8,152GWh in 2035, and 9,259GWh in 2040. The share of large hydropower to total power capacity is expected to be 57.26% in 2020, 43.81% in 2025, 35.95% in 2030, 34.35% in 2035, and 28.56% in 2040. The supply of large hydropower is predicted to increase continuously, but its share in the total power production will decrease steadily to be replaced by other RE sources.
However, to meet the target set by the INDC, it is necessary to multiply the correction factor of 1.575 to β, the diffusion speed parameter. That is, the diffusion speed parameter needs to increase by more than 57% from that of the current hydropower diffusion speed, which means that from 2035, hydropower supply needs to be doubled compared with the reference scenario. Therefore, in the INDC scenario, hydropower generation is expected to be 7,433GWh in 2020, 9,846GWh in 2025, 12,662GWh in 2030, 15,660GWh in 2035, and 19,024GWh in 2040. The share of hydroelectricity to total power generation is forecasted to decrease to 76.71% in 2020, 68.35% in 2025, 63.46% in 2030, 65.99% in 2035, and 58.68%
in 2040.
As regards planning for the large hydropower of Cameroon, the target is 3,936MW by 2033, an amount that could produce 16.9 TWh in the instance that 49.1%, the average usage rate of the last three years, is applied. Therefore, if the construction plan is implemented as planned, no problem is foreseen in accomplishing the INDC target of 15.6TWh.
❙ Table 6-6 ❙ Power generation by hydro
(Unit: GWh)
Reference INDC
Year Generation Share Generation Share
2018 5,269 62.30% 6,567 77.63%
2019 5,407 60.77% 6,993 78.61%
2020 5,548 57.26% 7,433 76.71%
2021 5,693 52.64% 7,887 72.93%
2022 5,841 51.15% 8,354 73.15%
2023 5,993 50.26% 8,836 74.09%
2024 6,149 49.33% 9,333 74.87%
2025 6,310 43.81% 9,846 68.35%
2026 6,474 38.65% 10,374 61.93%
2027 6,642 38.11% 10,920 62.65%
2028 6,815 37.54% 11,482 63.25%
2029 6,992 36.56% 12,063 63.08%
2030 7,173 35.95% 12,662 63.46%
2031 7,359 35.65% 13,281 64.34%
2032 7,550 35.36% 13,919 65.18%
2033 7,746 35.04% 14,478 65.49%
2034 7,946 34.70% 15,058 65.76%
2035 8,152 34.35% 15,660 65.99%
2036 8,362 33.11% 16,284 64.47%
2037 8,579 31.91% 16,932 62.98%
2038 8,800 30.75% 17,604 61.52%
2039 9,027 29.64% 18,302 60.09%
2040 9,259 28.56% 19,024 58.68%
Source: KEEI
The following graph shows the diffusion of large hydropower generation in Cameroon. A gap between the supply in the reference and the INDC scenarios widens over time and reaches 9,765 GWh in
[Figure 6-4] The prospect of large hydropower generation in Cameroon
Source: KEEI
Small hydropower in Cameroon is expected to reach 39 GWh in 2020, 131 GWh in 2025, 419 GWh in 2030, 1,179 GWh in 2035, and 2,535 GWh in 2040. The proportion of small hydropower in the generation mix is expected to grow from 0.41% in 2020, reaching 0.91% in 2025, 2.1% in 2030, 4.97% in 2035, and 7.82% in 2040. However, as this study has defined small hydropower as being less than 50 MW in size, it appears that the development of all the candidate regions proposed by Tractebel Engineering (2014) would be required.
However, to meet the INDC target, it is necessary to multiply a correction coefficient of 1,264 on the diffusion speed constant, β. In other words, a diffusion speed of more than 26% higher than the past diffusion of diesel is required. This means that by 2035, the small hydropower supply of 2.2 times the 2035 figure would be required. In the INDC scenario, small hydropower is expected to reach 54 GWh in 2020, 244 GWh in 2025, 967 GWh in 2030, 2,618 GWh in 2035, and 4,115 GWh in 2040. The proportion of small hydropower in the overall power mix is expected to grow from 0.56% in 2020 to 1.70% in 2025, 4.85%
in 2030, 11.03% in 2035, and 12.69% in 2040.
The planned small hydropower is 24.495 MW in Cameroon up to 2028. Applying the three-year utilization rate of 49.1%, this capacity is sufficient to produce 105.4 GWh. However, as the INDC target is 574 GWh, more than five times the currently planned capacity would be required.
❙ Table 6-7 ❙ Power generation by small hydro
(Unit: GWh)
Reference case INDC
Year Generation Share Generation Share
2018 24 0.29% 29 0.35%
2019 31 0.35% 40 0.45%
2020 39 0.41% 54 0.56%
2021 50 0.46% 74 0.68%
2022 64 0.56% 100 0.87%
2023 81 0.68% 135 1.13%
2024 103 0.83% 182 1.46%
2025 131 0.91% 244 1.70%
2026 166 0.99% 327 1.95%
2027 210 1.21% 435 2.49%
2028 266 1.46% 574 3.16%
2029 334 1.75% 750 3.92%
2030 419 2.10% 967 4.85%
2031 522 2.53% 1,229 5.95%
2032 648 3.03% 1,534 7.18%
2033 798 3.61% 1,876 8.49%
2034 975 4.26% 2,242 9.79%
2035 1,179 4.97% 2,618 11.03%
2036 1,412 5.59% 2,985 11.82%
2037 1,669 6.21% 3,327 12.38%
2038 1,946 6.80% 3,633 12.70%
2039 2,238 7.35% 3,896 12.79%
2040 2,535 7.82% 4,115 12.69%
Source: KEEI
The figure below shows the small hydropower diffusion graph in Cameroon. The supply difference between the reference case and the INDC case grows with time, resulting in a 1,552 GWh difference by
[Figure 6-5] The prospect of small hydropower in Cameroon
Source: KEEI
Biomass development in Cameroon is expected to grow to 25 GWh in 2020, 80GWh in 2025, 257 GWh in 2030, 777 GWh in 2035, and 2,011 GWh in 2040. The proportion of biomass in the power mix is expected to grow by 0.25% in 2020, 0.56% in 2025, 1.29% in 2030, 3.27% in 2035, and 6.20% in 2040.
However, to meet the INDC target, it is necessary to multiply a correction coefficient of 1.332 on the diffusion speed constant of β.In other words, a diffusion speed of more than 33% faster than the past diffusion of diesel is required. This means that by 2035, biomass supply of 2.1 times the 2035 figure would be required. The INDC expects biomass generation to reach 22 GWh in 2020, 106 GWh in 2025, 476 GWh in 2030, 1,665 GWh in 2035, and 3,396 GWh in 2040. The proportion of biomass in the overall power mix is expected to grow by 0.23% in 2020 to 0.74% in 2025, 2.39% in 2030, 7.02% in 2035, and 10.47% in 2040.
A capacity of 1.671 MW biomass is planned in Cameroon up to 2020 and 2.417 MW by 2025.
Assuming a utilization rate of 80%, this capacity is sufficient to produce 11.7 and 16.9 GWh, respectively.
Therefore, even with the construction proceeding on schedule, it appears that Cameroon will only have 16%
of the capacity originally required under INDC.
❙ Table 6-8 ❙ Power generation by biomass
(Unit: GWh)
Reference case INDC
Year Generation Share Generation Share
2018 15 0.18% 12 0.14%
2019 19 0.22% 16 0.18%
2020 25 0.25% 22 0.23%
2021 31 0.29% 30 0.28%
2022 39 0.35% 41 0.36%
2023 50 0.42% 57 0.48%
2024 63 0.51% 78 0.62%
2025 80 0.56% 106 0.74%
2026 102 0.61% 144 0.86%
2027 128 0.74% 196 1.13%
2028 162 0.89% 265 1.46%
2029 204 1.07% 357 1.87%
2030 257 1.29% 476 2.39%
2031 323 1.56% 630 3.05%
2032 405 1.89% 824 3.86%
2033 505 2.28% 1,061 4.80%
2034 628 2.74% 1,343 5.87%
2035 777 3.27% 1,665 7.02%
2036 956 3.78% 2,016 7.98%
2037 1,167 4.34% 2,382 8.86%
2038 1,413 4.94% 2,745 9.59%
2039 1,695 5.57% 3,088 10.14%
2040 2,011 6.20% 3,396 10.47%
Source: KEEI
The figure below shows the biomass diffusion graph in Cameroon. The supply difference between the reference case and the INDC case grows with time, resulting in a 1,329 GWh difference by 2040.
[Figure 6-6] The prospect of biomass power generation in Cameroon
❙ Table 6-9 ❙ Targets of power generation by RE source
(unit: GMh)
Division 2025 2030 2035
Solar PV 105 387 1,427
Wind 73 144 244
Small Hydro 244 967 2,618
Bioenergy 106 476 1,665
Total 528 1,974 5,954
The overall RE production in Cameroon is expected to grow to 5,669 GWh in 2020, 6,661 GWh in 2025, 8,308 GWh in 2030, 11,031 GWh in 2035, and 16.321 GWh in 2040.
RE is expected to account for 58.51 %% of power generation in 2020, 46.25% in 2025, 41.11% in 2030, 46.49% in 2035, and 50.34% in 2040. Excluding large hydropower, the proportion of RE generation will reach 1.25% in 2020, 2.44% in 2025, 5.16% in 2030, 12.13% in 2035, and 21.78% in 2040.
However, the INDC target indicates that total RE generation will reach 7,572 GWh in 2020, 10,374GWh in 2025, 14,637 GWh in 2030, 21,613 GWh in 2035, and 32,144 GWh in 2040. The proportion of RE generation relative to the total generation capacity is expected to reach 78.14% in 2020, 72.06 % in 2025, 73.36% in 2030, 91.08% in 2035, and 99.15% in 2040, in the range of 80%. Excluding large hydro, RE is expected to account for 1.43% in 2020, 3.67% in 2025, 9.90% in 2030, 25.09% in 2035, and 40.47% in 2040.
Proportionate to the INDC objectives, excluding hydropower, this stands at 25% in 2035.
Source: KEEI
❙ Table 6-10 ❙ Power generation by total RE
(Unit: GWh) Source: KEEI
The figure below shows the overall RE diffusion graph for Cameroon. The supply volume changes over time between the reference and INDC cases, resulting in a 15,823 GWh difference in 2040. As there is a double difference between the reference case and the INDC case, it appears that the INDC execution plan is very ambitious. Therefore, achieving the INDC objective would requires twice the effort required to achieve the reference case objectives.
Reference INDC
Year Generation Share Share
(only small hydro) Generation Share Share (only small hydro)
2018 5,349 63.24% 0.94% 6,649 78.61% 6,649
2019 5,505 61.88% 1.10% 7,100 79.81% 7,100
2020 5,669 58.51% 1.25% 7,572 78.14% 7,572
2021 5,842 54.02% 1.38% 8,067 74.59% 8,067
2022 6,026 52.77% 1.62% 8,590 75.21% 8,590
2023 6,222 52.18% 1.92% 9,144 76.68% 9,144
2024 6,433 51.61% 2.28% 9,736 78.11% 9,736
2025 6,661 46.25% 2.44% 10,374 72.02% 10,374
2026 6,910 41.25% 2.61% 11,066 66.07% 11,066
2027 7,183 41.22% 3.11% 11,825 67.85% 11,825
2028 7,486 41.24% 3.70% 12,662 69.75% 12,662
2029 7,824 40.91% 4.35% 13,594 71.09% 13,594
2030 8,203 41.11% 5.16% 14,637 73.36% 14,637
2031 8,632 41.82% 6.17% 15,804 76.57% 15,804
2032 9,120 42.71% 7.35% 17,110 80.13% 17,110
2033 9,675 43.77% 8.73% 18,463 83.52% 18,463
2034 10,309 45.02% 10.32% 19,965 87.19% 19,965
2035 11,031 46.49% 12.13% 21,613 91.08% 21,613
2036 11,853 46.93% 13.82% 23,404 92.66% 23,404
2037 12,785 47.55% 15.64% 25,334 94.23% 25,334
2038 13,834 48.34% 17.59% 27,413 95.80% 27,413
2039 15,010 49.28% 19.64% 29,667 97.40% 29,667
2040 16,321 50.34% 21.78% 32,144 99.15% 32,144
[Figure 6-7] The prospect of total renewable energy generation in Cameroon
Source: KEEI
The current power mix of Cameroon comprises 57.6% hydropower and 42.4% thermal power generation. However, by 2035, it is expected that the reference case will comprise thermal and hydropower (87.9%), small hydropower (5%), solar PV (3.1%), bioenergy (3.3%), and wind power (0.8%). In other words, the proportion of hydropower is decreasing and the proportion of other sources is increasing. The REMP scenario is expected to result in hydropower and thermal power (74.9%), solar PV (6%), small hydropower (11%), biomass (7%), and wind power (1%). In other words, thermal power generation is scarce, and RE is expected to account for most of the generation mix. Solar and hydropower generation, in particular, is expected to increase rather than the traditional RE source of hydropower.
[Figure 6-8] Change in electricity generation mix of Cameroon
[2014 Current Case]
[2035, Reference Scenario]
[2035, REMP Scenario]