세계 에너지시장 인사이트 제13-05호

/ #"! $'%&

+,*()-/.0

23101" %"%

¢-ëg©;3< Bzń8;Vw&'xŽ+ñCp®6 zń8›&‡¤[z=T /XVjÌŅ-ĥņ+;‚ŇHSń

8aN‡¤[z=T/,jŅ*DCĥņu

9Á®z ń8 ›&‡+ŅDĥ ņH|ń8 aN‡¤ŅC ĥņH|[ňEIr

¢-ëg©"$zĻ|4B=EW+[‡"– (#v

"$ € C8 ›&‡( g Ļ C8 ›&‡ Ì)/ D[ e%ń8;'ʼnń8›&‡Ŋ`B`DķIJH|;=6

!"$#%&'(&'*)

¢-ë g©;3< B3$& <1$ <1$$ " A#&

! 31&@zń8;Vw&'xŽ+ñCp®6

2 3458679:;<=?@>ACBDEHGFJIK9ML ONP:;Q<=SRTDEHGF'*UV=JIW

z ń8VwŋÝe(ê Ë6›&‡¤ [z =T /XVj Ì Ņ-ĥņ+;‚6

ń8 aN‡¤ [z =T/,jŅ*DCĥ ņu ( )B38ø đø =j ń8 aN‡¤ [z=T /XVjŅC-ĥ ņ 38 øĻøaN‡¤ )/,j-Dĥņ+;‚6

¢-ë );œ;ŽH|Ņĥ+Ņĥ ņ aŒ ń8 ›

&‡+8IJ+)4O|ŌEIr

ń8 ›&‡( d‰ aŒ+ b 9: ,DDD. e ė

¤C›&¦¥ÜùV=|²UIJH|¸}IJ(vōŎ 2 :;HS9XYZ[\[J]^?0`_ac)b))d

JFefWc)b))d J9[Ug Fih[jkA)lNKKmP [J]n[=o[Ug F[Ug A))lN>ZpK9qr

9Á®z*ñ ®Ňŏz ń8 ›& c aN [ňù ñÜRŐr Ė¢G);œ;ŽH|¢-ëń8›&¤,e

‹pIJH|[ň–

_^u_vwx zgy{Nv Fu}~|I3f

€u‚^_ƒ„

R)

s

z¢-ëń8›&‡[ň¤‰ċŅĥņBŅDĥņ H|ÜR–

ń8 ›&‡¤z+-z ó1 íŁaőĥ ņò,PV*z p-ŽH|b³l;-²zŅ)ĥņ([ňu z{ ń8 ›&‡¤ P- ,z9Ņĥ ņ a

Œ(IJH|[ň–

z ń8 aN‡ 9: ‰ċŅCĥ ņBŅCĥ ņH|

ÜR– (Ań8aN‡¤“DXV-z{ń8aN‡¤

Ņĥ+ŅĥņaŒ+8}IJH|–

;'Œ zxŽ

őĥņ

z[ň őĥņ

/

"$ ) - C

F#G& -C D - +- - -+ C

4B=E ) * - C

##$"$H D C D D

:H1 4"$ D C *

$"$ D D

&9"$ ) * - D

#"$ * C - D

= "$ C C

`*Á;'ģ% CC CD C

¢-ë[\ - D C

Ô> 3< B9Á®f;'Ŕœ(

t[M@uX[^?wxvXzy{

jı 3< BzVw›&‡¤[z=T /,jD=+

;‚ŇPE®6

g©Vw;':H1z Vw ›&‡¤ [z =T C/ ,j C)- -=•č˜¢-ë߶%Vw;'•49$GVw›&‡¤[

z=T */XV=+;‚6

z VwE4: aN‡¤ [z =T D/ ,j-D=+ ;‚6 Ė)87ø=jVwaN‡¤=(S 38gV=jVw aN‡¤-=+;‚6

ë-ë ø =j F4: aN‡€}ŕŖ €'¤ )/ XV C )=s6

z:H1 ›& , gĻ Vw,T ,[z =T/, g Ļ =ï Vw,T %Ìå ?9 ;•6 :H1 [\

%Ìŗ‡ )/R!Vz %Ì;Ł( ĥÔlm‰a g _^u~vwx

zgy{…†

€u^^^ƒ

„€

u‡^^ƒ„

ˆ)

_^u_v3‰

zgy{Nv F_}~|ŠKf

‡€€‹ŒA R)

1

Ļ Vw,Tʼn(z %Ì ŘĴ+ ˜B %Ìå+:H1B 49$GH|?9jIJH|Ӓř

Śñ ś:H1¤z € Vw ›&‡+=H| [ň E IPE ōŜr 49$G 9: z Vw ›&‡( [z =T ) /XV}IJ(vñ[ň6

./-+,0%643125978:;=<>?

Şŝ=šş¤g©;'"$·­gĻń8›&`4B=E• aV¢-ëø€Vœ=ƒ¿'I6JLVķIJH|ĚV6

"$4B=E /W•a۝¤ÌDŅs¢|lEIH S( ø= ń8;Vw;' Ł'I6ƒ¿B**-z@@'%&

•aJL۝)CŅs¢(AĢŠšu

2 8}7b|~9€|~:;++„‚ƒ……†Xˆ‡E‰*[

‹ŠM@ONP|~……†Œ(lA_G[KmŽ†$‘#’9 X“8}7b|~A(lF”m9|~P•–m—˜(l”m9 :;™++……†všf›H_œžŽ

"$4B=E •a (A ¢-ë [\ C8 ›& -Ņ ņ Ì )/ *Ņņ*‰–

·­4B=Edđ‹8 &¤Ĺv¼8[ĪàaŢv6!G# ţ ]ĪêŤDţ];4 3É8 c {oĵ;E # '! ®[,: Þv(GF GR8œ«u

"$ 4B=E "$J4B=E ļ a,µ•œ‡%& % C C * - ļ a,›&‡& %

 ļ a,

)C )C

C ))

C D C R¯>& $!

R‡& %

* - D

)C)

-*

)) ń8aN& $ - *)C * )D -- ))

ˆaİ%& 2 * D

©'(İ=8<6 %& 2 C D D D

Ŋ(İ%& 2 C * C

Ŋð%& 2 D ) C )

Kz;Œ

Ô> 3< B # E$&# 89$ + t†$‘#’A8}7b|~ŸMD v{

4Žh

’“‘”

?—–•‹˜eP

™<šœ›

3dž

¡Ÿ 79)

8 bœ¤"$›&‡(e%ˆń8›&‡/D ķIJH|[ň6

"$4B=E•a([ "$4B=E•a(A ļ a,›&‡Ŋ` ļ a,›&‡Ŋ` ń8›&‡Ŋ`

# 6 # 6 # 6 *

:H1 * ) :H1 * ) 4803 C

4803 D C 4803 D C "$J4B=E C

C @@'%& @@'%& 8L 0& '$! ) E $3 C C "$J4B=E C D 6<403 )

D =EC E$3 C C E@ D

) && * =EC E$3 C

- E@ D && * BE3

* 3 9 E@ D @@'%&

BE3 3 9 E$%

6<403 * BE3 3 9 *

$ ) 6<403 * E(6 *

$& ) $ ) F#G& -

C E$% D $& ) && -

"$ D E$% D =E )

D 8L 0& '$! 8L 0& '$! $$&

) M$ E$&# M$ E$&# $&

- F#G& F#G& $

* M$ E$&# -

$$& $$& 1 -

31 &&1 31 &&1 -

E(6 * E(6 * 3E &&1 )

1 D 1 D E$

C 44E C 44E C 44E *

E$ C E$ C

4803 > 4$& 8 0& 3 6<403 > 6%# < % 4$& 0& 3 BE3 > B#?$ E$&# 31 44E > 4 4$& E$&#

Ô> A% 7& @#$9f;'Ŕœ(

t¡$%¢‘A £¤[=j,M@¥/)¦{

>§©¨¢ª«

ļ a, ›&ƒ¿B"$ [e% ń8;'ʼn Vnm4B=E •a

[`B•aA`|Ζ

ń8›&‡B`# 6 `4803("$;4B=E V`D}IJH|–

’“‘”

?—–•‹˜eP 2¢›

zgy2£T]

wxzgy€|

'N¤)

Şŝ =šşO"$8 bœ¤ ([{"$ =j e%

Ž aŒ ń8 Ā(ĉ ;' ¨¥d ťr ("$ Ŧ|ŧ ń8 -œB g©;'H|B j% Ũ³; `d dđ€'+ µ=E e

%ŽaŒÁ®;ũc9Ū+µ‹’EIr

¢-ëRoL[ūŽœø•=Ŭŭ8[Á®=jߓK+

"$ ŐE ‘j"$ g Ċ-œ+ šj ÛÜs 8E08|Ċº ®F! ŽŨŽH| CE Ir ‘j¢-ë R zś{g©;'•"$Ů© ¸%ŽH|¨¥EIr 2 †$‘#’|~A8}7b|~ššNP|~9†$‘#’A1(l†$‘#’A

DD++F‚[K¬­

"$ ůŨø+ Ë6j gĻ =Ŭŭ Á®O dđ €' µ= `d đg;'O[ūŽŰšdě®jû>€'+[Á6

ůŨd 8[Á® ;ũ c 9Ū Ųű+ `d <QÂ($$&O ¢-ë c<QÂ(ůŨdBóH|8[Á®¨¥

‘j @@'%&O¢-ë=Ŭŭogų-ýĥŴ€wB÷GP

«BóH|CÁ®€'¨¥

=Ec(Ēë48dđ;ğŸBÇ

jı =E"$ˆ*ń(€b)Bń+D–

Ė ŵ"$ ŶŷwļĪàaŢvĹv¼Ó 6ĪêŤ

« )Ÿë-ë)Ťo)ó;ůëĄŶóŤë-ë=j ¢-ëR C”gŁCđŹtO|õűj8[Á®€'+¨¥)u

bEac

# E$&# 89$ N9&#$ " "$ A$ " O +

# E$&# 89$ N "$4B=E ' $O +

F$ NźżŽŽŻž ŽżƀƂſƃŻƁſ ƅżƄƈƇƆ ƉſƊſ Ƌ ƉżƅƆO C

? NƌżƄƈƇſ ƎƍƏƃŻ Ƌ źƐ Ƌ ƋƈƂżŽƁſ Ǝſ /O C

¦¥@

Œ§¨‘{

’“‘”£T wx©2ª h(¬«

>)