East Asia Summit - 7th ECTF Meeting
Energy Outlook in East Asia:
Asia:
Focus on Energy Saving Potential
International Seminar International Seminar
‘Energy Future: Turning Challenge into Opportunity’
June 27th, 2008 Hotel Riviera Seoul, Seoul, Korea Shigeru KIMURA The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Background
z Primary energy supply in East Asia will increase 3%
per annum, from 2,425 MTOE in 2000 to 5,931 MTOE in 2030 according to the rough forecast by MTOE in 2030 according to the rough forecast by IEEJ. The growth rates by each energy are:
z Coal: 3.0%, Oil: 2.8%, Gas: 3.9%
z Nuclear: 3.4%, Hydro: 3.2%, Others: 2.9%
6 000 7,000
3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
MTOE
0 1,000 2,000 3,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
C oa l O il N a t ur a l ga s N uclea r Hy dr o O t her r ene wa bles
Source: ASEAN and IEEJ Energy Outlook
Background
z Final energy consumption in East Asia will also increase 2.8% per annum, from 1,554 MTOE in
2000 to 3 571 MTOE in 2030 The growth rates by 2000 to 3,571 MTOE in 2030. The growth rates by each sector are:
z Industry: 2.2%, Transport: 3.6%, Others: 2.9% y , p ,
3 000 3,500 4,000
1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
MTOE
0 500 1,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Indust r y Tr anspor t at ion Ot her s Non-ener gy Use
Source: ASEAN and IEEJ Energy Outlook
Background
90% f F il E Sh i 2030 z
Importance of Energy Saving
90% of Fossil Energy Share in 2030
Energy Security Climate Change
Necessary Actions
zSaving Energy Consumption
zUse of Low or Carbon Free Energy zUse of Low or Carbon Free Energy
Policy Process on Energy Security
{ At the 2nd EAS in 2007 in Cebu, Leaders resolved “Cebu Declaration on East Asian Energy Security”.
{ To show ERIA’s value-added to Leaders through policy-oriented recommendations, ERIA will contribute to the implementation of the Declaration.
Cebu Declaration on
Cebu Declaration on ERIA’s ContributionERIA’s Contribution
9 Set individual goals and formulate action plans
l il f i i ffi i
East Asian Energy Security East Asian Energy Security
Working Group for Analysis on Energy
ERIA s Contribution ERIA s Contribution through Energy Project through Energy Project
voluntarily for improving energy efficiency, 9 Encourage collective efforts in intensifying
the search for new and renewable energy
resources and technologies, including research
Working Group for Analysis on Energy Saving Potential in East Asia Region
Working Group for Sustainable Biomass resources and technologies, including research
and development in biofuels
9 Encourage the use of biofuels and work towards a standard on biofuels used in engine and motor
hi l W ki G f S d di i f
Working Group for Sustainable Biomass Utilisation Vision in East Asia
vehicles,
…
Working Group for Standardization of Biodiesel Fuel for Vehicles in East Asia
ERIA
(E i R h I tit t f ASEAN d E t A i ) For the sustainable economic growth in East Asia, we have to address not only Trade/Investment liberalization through FTA/EPAs but also wide range of policyERIA
(Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia)Trade/Investment liberalization through FTA/EPAs but also wide range of policy issues
Economic Integration in East Asia Economic Integration in East Asia
Trade/Investment Trade/Investment
Facilitation Facilitation
Narrowing the Narrowing the Development Gap Development Gap
Sustainable Sustainable Development Development
For example,
•Trade/Investment Promotion
•Trade facilitation,
•FTA/EPA strategy
For example,
•Infrastructure developments,
•Human Resources,
•Small and Medium Enterprise
For example,
•Energy, Environment,
•Poverty reduction
•FTA/EPA strategy,
•Intellectual Property,
•Standard Conformity,
•Small and Medium Enterprise,
•Economic development in CLMV countries,
•Information Security
Basic Researches Basic Researches
on current and prospective economic situations on current and prospective economic situations of the region as a whole and individual countries of the region as a whole and individual countries
Working Group for Analysis on Energy Working Group for Analysis on Energy Saving Potential in East Asia Region
z Methodology for assessing the energy saving potential
Establishment of the working group with 16 members and IEEJ experts
Model Assumptions zPopulation and GDP zCar ownership
P i
zPower generation zEnergy saving goals and action plans
BAU
Macro data APS
BAU+Energy Macro data,
others
BAU+Energy saving goals
IEEJ Asia/World Energy Outlook Model (Econometrics Approach)
Difference of energy consumption between BAU and APS
Working Group for Analysis on Energy Working Group for Analysis on Energy Saving Potential in East Asia
Sector Wide Energy Consumption by Scenario in 2030
1200
MTOE 1400 Energy Savings Potential
}
} }
800 1000
}
} } }
400 600
0 200
Industry Transport Others Electricity Industry Transport Others Electricity
BAU APS
Outline of IEEJ Asia/World Energy Outlook Model
z
Geographical Coverage and Energy
Balance Basis
E B l T blBalance Basis
Geographical Coverage
Asia: 13 countries and 1 region
Energy Balance Table
zFinal Energy Consumption zForecast energy
demand by energy and Asia: 13 countries and 1 region
Oceania: 2 countries
Europe: 4 countries and 3 regions Africa: 1 region
N th A i 2 t i
demand by energy and sector in FEC sector
using estimated demand functions
E f(Y P E )
North America: 2 countries
Latin America: 2countries and 1 region
Total: 30 countries and regions
zTransformation
zForecast fuel input and output in
E=f(Y,Pe,E-1)
Total: 30 countries and regions output in
transformation sector zPrimary Energy Supply
Target Year: 2030
zForecast energy supply in PES sector making balance at trade
Target Year: 2030
Macro Assumptions for BAU d APS
and APS
z
GDP growth rate (2005-2030)
z GDP per capita will increase 3,000 US$/person in 2005 to 6 800 US$/person in 2030
6,800 US$/person in 2030
10% 9.8%
12%
7.0%
6 2%
8.0%
6.5%
7.5%
9.8%
6.8%
8.3%
8%
10%
ate (%/year)
3.8%
6.2% 6.5%
3.8%
5.5%
4.0%
5.2%
4.2%
4%
6%
al GDP Growth Ra
2.6%
1.5%
2.1%
2%
Rea
0%
AUS BRN KHM CHN IND IDN JPN KOR LAO MYS MMR NZL PHL SGP THA VNM Total
(Based on the report of each WG member)
Macro Assumptions for BAU d APS
and APS
z
Population
(average growth rate is 0.8%P.A.)z Population will increase from 3.15 billion persons in 2005 t 3 86 billi i 2030
2005 to 3.86 billion in 2030
(Based on the return of each WG member)
Macro Assumptions for BAU and APS
z Crude oil price
Japan's Import Oil Price (CIF base) Japan s Import Oil Price (CIF base)
100 120
Nominal
40 60 80
$/bbl Real
0 20 40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Macro Assumptions for BAU p and APS
N b f h ld
z
Number of car hold
z Car ownership will increase from 0.06 hi l / i 2005 t 0 18 i 2030 vehicles/person in 2005 to 0.18 in 2030
250.00
2005
15000 200.00
millio
20052030
100.00 150.00
Car holds (m
0.00 50.00
AUS BRN CHN IND IDN J PN KOR MYS NZL PHL SGP THA VNM
Note: Australia, Brunei, China, Singapore and Vietnam are estimated by IEEJ
Energy Saving and Action Plans
Action Plans
D t il d Detailed
Australia Japan
New Zealand China
None
New Zealand Philippines
Singapore Saving Goals Detailed
Brunei India
Th il d Indonesia
Korea
N Brunei
Cambodia Myanmar
Thailand Vietnam Korea
Lao PDR Malaysia
None
M d l O t t Model Outputs
z
Overall
MTOE,Mt-C
6000 7000
8000
}
-20%4000 5000 6000
}- 17%
}
-29%1000 2000 3000
0 1000
TPES TFEC CO2
2005 BAU in 2030 APS in 2030
M d l O t t Model Outputs
TPES b t i
z
TPES by countries
10
3,500
APS
2,475 3,110
2,500 3,000
nd (Mtoe)
APS BAU
1,375 1,494
1,876
1,500 2,000
ry Energy Deman
40
430 492 319
203 2 81 42
379 8
521 530536 214378
2 1 227
69
500 1,000
Total Primar
140 5 6 5 99 27 22 97 50
20 142
122 181
3 5 1 6 128 21
0 5 58 122
4 27 17 25 34121
30 53 8422 27169
0
BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS
'05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 AUS BRN KHM CHN IND IDN JPN KOR LAO MYS MMR NZL PHL SGP THA VNM
M d l O t t Model Outputs
z
FEC by sectors
1,874 2,000
-11% APS 1,600
1,331 1,400
1,600 1,800
ectors (Mtoe)
APS BAU -11%
-21%
-20%
925
1,086 934
1,185
800 1,000 1,200
nsumption by Se -21%
165
400 498
82 165
200 400 600 800
Final Energy Co
82 0
200
BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS
'05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30
F
Industry Transport Others Non-Energy
M d l O t t Model Outputs
z
CO
2emission by energy
5000
3,526
3500 4000 4500
(Mt-C)
-1,227 Mt-C -35%
389 Mt C
1,696
2,299
1 571
2000 2500 3000
Tons of Carbon
-389 Mt-C -25%
-66 Mt-C -10%
,
769
1,571
1,182
186
663 597
500 1000
Million T 1500
186
0
BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS
'05 '30 '05 '30 '05 '30
Coal Oil Gas
M d l O t t Model Outputs
z
Energy Intensity
350
250 300
350 -14%
-31%
150 200 250
50 100 150
0 2005 2030 BAU 2030 APS
TPES/GDP
Model Outputs
z Conclusion
z The existing energy saving goals could reduce 20%
of TPES and 29% of CO emission i 2030 of TPES and 29% of CO2 emission in year 2030
compared to BAU.
z The energy saving results from highly efficient
z The energy saving results from highly efficient vehicles and appliances as well as improved thermal efficiency for coal and gas fired power
l t plants.
z The energy saving amount is significant but not enough to contribute to energy security and enough to contribute to energy security and climate change mitigation in EAS region.
Policy Implications (1) Policy Implications (1)
z The analysis in this report indicates that there is significant potential for countries in the EAS region to reduce growth in energy consumption and carbon reduce growth in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions by implementing policies across all sectors of the economy that encouragey g improvements inp energy efficiency and conservation and increase the use of lower emission technologies and fuels.
z It is clear that many EAS countries already have a variety of policies aimed at achieving energy saving goals.
H it i d d th t d t il d ti l
However, it is recommended that detailed action plans should also be developed which outline in a broad sense how these energy savings will be achieved
how these energy savings will be achieved.
Policy Implications (2)
z A range of policy options are available which could drive improvements in energy efficiency or the enhanced uptake of low emissions technologies. These policies include: communication campaigns, performance and emission standards, renewable energy targets, enhanced research and development funding, and
li it i i i i i t t h t d
explicit emission pricing instruments such as taxes and emissions trading. The choice of policies used in individual countries will depend on a range of country individual countries will depend on a range of country specific factors and other competing policy objectives.
Policy Implications (3)
z A range of more energy efficient and lower emission technologies were identified for EAS countries. In
ti l th f ffi i t hi l d
particular, the use of more energy efficient vehicles and demand management strategies in the transportation, residential, and commercial sectors were key to residential, and commercial sectors were key to achieving potential energy savings. Improvement in the efficiency of thermal electricity generation was also identified as being key to achieving energy savings.
International collaboration on technology development and transfer was identified as an development and transfer was identified as an opportunity for achieving future gains.
Policy Implications (4)
z This study indicates that if all of the currently proposed energy saving and lower emission fuel policies were
i l t d i EAS t i t t l i
implemented in EAS countries, total primary energy demand could be reduced by about 20 per cent in 2030, relative to the business as usual case Carbon dioxide relative to the business as usual case. Carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption are also projected to be reduced by about 29 per cent below business as usual levels at 2030. Enhanced energy efficiency and an increase in the share of lower emission and renewable fuels in the energy mix may also have other benefits fuels in the energy mix may also have other benefits such as increasing energy supply diversity and enhancing energy security.g gy y
Policy Implications (5)
z Although the projected level of energy savings and reductions in CO2 emissions could be considered significant, it is not enough to
iti t ll f th h ll d b li t h M
mitigate all of the challenges posed by climate change. More aggressive energy saving goals, advanced technologies to reduce CO22 emissions directly,y such as carbon capture and storagep g technologies, and enhanced uptake of lower emission fuels are recommended.
It t d th t dditi l f t t b i t d ith
z It was noted that additional upfront costs may be associated with implementing more energy efficient technologies and increasing the share of renewable energy sources. However,gy , financial and economic analysis was outside the scope of this study. It should be assessed in the near future.
Work in year 2008
z
Reassessment on the impact of the preliminary energy saving goals and
p y gy g g
action plans of EAS countries to be reported to EMM2 early August 2008
z
Discussion on appropriate energy
efficiency indicators y to contribute to promotion of technology transfer among EAS region
z
Discussion on preparation of workable
energy saving action plans gy g p
Thank You
Thank You
